Corbin pitched his second to last game in a Nationals uniform yesterday. Like many, many, MANY of those games he lost. He stinks. Get him out of here.
I don't blame the Nats for Corbin being here in the first place. He probably was the best starting pitcher available that year. The contract was high but they probably had to go high to get him. That's what happens with best available guys. Yes in retrospect it feels like it was probably a year longer than it needed to be but we don't really have the knowledge of what was out there. Some thought he'd be great (not me), some thought he'd be good (me), few thought he'd tank (did anyone? If so, I'd like to see the proof). It made sense.
What didn't make sense is continually throwing him out there after it became clear he wasn't the same pitcher anymore. A very good 2019 season devolved into a bad short 2020, then a terrible 2021, and 2022, AND 2023 AAANNNNDDD 2024. In 2021 you could be hoping for a turnaround, in a year you expected to maybe compete. In 2022 you could be hoping to still get value from a long contract. In 2023 and beyond there really wasn't a reason to throw him out there other than to eat innings to protect young arms and the Nats didn't have any young arms to protect. (or a manager that would know how to do this either). He should have been gone going into 2023 let alone 2024.
Of course I don't blame him for staying. Even with players I don't like I still say stay in the game as long as you can because you aren't getting another chance later. And if you are getting paid like a king to do it? No-brainer.
For those that want to give Corbin a nod for 2019... you are free to but note that being on that team doesn't mean he was integral. Oh he was very good in the regular season. I've admitted that. But the Nats also cleared hosting the Wild Card by 4 games. Was he 4 games better than another pitcher? That's a big jump.
His playoff record isn't as good as some remember.
In the NLDS he did well in game 1, wild but avoided the big hit. They lost but it wasn't on him. This is unlike G3 where he came in to help relieve Anibal Sanchez and got immediately pounded into dust basically taking away any chance the Nats had to win. But he finished off his NLDS time trying relief again. This time in G5 and he held the dejected Dodgers down for an inning after Kershaw did his "Kershaw in the playoffs" thing.
In the NLCS he started G4 and was the only pitcher on the Nats not to dominate the Cardinals. Seriously. His series ERA? 6.75. Next was Doolittle at 2.25. Then no one else gave up an earned run. Of course the Nats opened the game with 7 runs and had a 3-0 series lead so no one cared.
In the World Series he pitched an inning in G1 that was work but did the job. Then he started G4 and lost. He might have been chased in the first if Robinson Chirinos didn't bail him out. It was already 2-0 and he just walked the bases loaded but Chirinos swung at a ball to start then swung again at not his pitch up 2-1. Later Corbin would make it up to him by serving him a meatball for a homer. It was a lousy showing that tied the series back up. Corbin would come back though in G7 in his best performance of the playoffs to pitch well for three innings while the Nats clawed their way back.
Those innings ended up being his lasting impression for a lot of people, but it was really an up and down playoffs though and one that he could have been a goat for his NLDS start or for his WS start.
He's not the worst pitcher the Nats have had. They've had a lot of bad pitchers. But he's the worst that they sunk more than a couple seasons of starts into. Like of those starters with more than 30 starts he's 7th worst (out of 31) in HR/9, 5th in H/9, 13th in FIP. But looking at those with more than 70 starts he's worst in H/9, 3rd worst in HR/9 (Gray and Fedde if you must know), 3rd worst in FIP. And that's including 2019 which is 200IP of Cy Young vote getting pitching.
The takeaway from Corbin's career is that Corbin came and threw innings and they won a World Series and he was a small part of that because he was good. Then he stayed and threw more innings and got paid and lost and hurt the team for the next 5 years because he was bad. It's only a fair tradeoff if you think they couldn't have won without him, something unknowable really.
There isn't much more to say I guess. He's been an anchor on the team for 5 seasons. They are better off without him. If you want to tip your cap because he helped the Nats easily take the Wild Card slot or because his variable playoff performance ended with a high at the most important time, that's up to you. My cap is staying on my head.
9 comments:
Any chance that Corbin gets a major league contract for next year? A minor league contract? Do the pundits even think he'll stay in baseball? He doesn't need the money.
I don't disagree that Corbin has been awful and that there's been no realistic upside to playing him for at least two years. But if the team had waived him, the most likely consequence would have been more innings for Rutledge and Adon and I doubt that would have improved their development or the product on the field. So, really not a lot strategic harm as far as I can see.
Maybe if you think they'd have signed a FA for that rotation spot, then there would have been a chance to luck into a valuable trade chip. But the Lerners, while not cheap, aren't money-is-no-object owners, and I expect that writing down a $70M loss so you can spend $15M on a lottery ticket reclamation project is simply a bridge too far for them during a rebuild. Though, if possible, I think we agree that would have been the correct strategy.
(I also think you're too harsh on him re 2019. Not the playoffs - "up and down" is fair. But the season. He was really really good. 5th best player on the team by fWAR and bWAR. Maybe if instead we sign a lesser FA who also stays healthy then we still squeak into the WC, but that squad already gave 37 starts to Voth, Hellickson, Ross and Fedde. If no Corbin means 30 more starts to spread around those guys, I don't think we do make it.)
This year, about a third of Corbin's starts were quite strong. He has a rubber left arm and never complains. This would profile as a #5 MLB pitcher--if the other 2/3 of his starts weren't so doggone bad. So he might get a MLB contract?
Does the story change if he gets a Tampa or Dodgers contract next season and then pitch well? Would drive me nuts.
I saw Corbin in games twice this season, and he pitched well in both games (the Nats won both, once against the Diamondbacks and once against the Marlins. I believe Corbin pitched six innings in both games and only gave up one run in both games).
Zooming out some, Corbin is on pace for his best season (by fWAR) since 2020. The main reason for that is his HR/9, which isn’t great, but is lower than it’s been since 2019. If Corbin had an ERA that matched his FIP this season, the narrative would be different on how well his season went.
And while we can’t truly evaluate the counterfactuals, we do know that he pitched lights out in the 2019 WS Game 7. And if he doesn’t, the Nats probably don’t win.
Therefore, I tip my hat to Mr. Corbin. Thanks for contributing to the most exciting baseball season in my entire life.
I can see someone giving him a million-ish deal with the idea of seeing if he could relieve and start only if necessary.
I may be too harsh on him re 2019 but they cleared the WC by 6 or 7 games (depending on if they win the tie break). That's like Shohei worth. They aren't squeaking in without him.
I mean I guess I'd dislike him more?
I don't know; maybe you're right. 6 games is a lot. I still wouldn't want to run 2019 back without Corbin, though. Even if we assume the team would have used the money and roster space well over the last 6 years.
Now if the genie would also give Stras as 80th percentile outcome post-2019...
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