The Nats went into 2024 with the hope that either Joey Meneses would blossom or their FA pick-up Joey Gallo would hold down the spot. Neither were being counted on to be long term solutions, more likely trade-bait, but it could have gone in any direction depending on how they performed and what they Nats looked like they needed going forward. When both essentially flunked out of the majors the Nats turned to a organizational depth pick-up Juan Yepez to cover the spot for the rest of the year. He did so admirably hitting well enough that the Nats are at least thinking about where he fits in for next year if they want to look at him some more
Overall the position was one of the Nats' weakest and ripe for improvement.
Presumed Plan :
A FA signing that can play 1B. This player may end up at DH instead.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
Joey G. will be bought out and Joey M, at 32, had his chance. These aren't real options.
Juan Yepez is a poor fielding 1B with little history of success at the plate. Still he's interesting in that he's a rare player that can generate power without sacrificing contact. However what appeared to be potentially special in 2021 has regressed to usable. He's worth throwing out there again but not as a primary source of production. Andres Chaparro also spent some time there but he right now would be behind Yepez.
The Nats have a 1B they like ok in the minors in Yohandy Morales, but his AA stay last year almost certainly puts him back in that league for another year. At 22 this isn't an issue, but the Nats can't rely on him coming up and making an impact in the next couple years.
They could move someone over (Kieboom? Wood?) but there has been neither planning or inklings they are interested in such moves.
All this says they have the need for a FA at these positions.
My Take :
Yep. While James Wood's play suggests his long-term home might be at 1B (or DH) it's way too early to give in just yet, especially with a couple strong defenders along with him in the OF. So a FA makes sense and there's a few decent ones out there.
Pete Alonso (pure power, no glove, still 30) and Christian Walker (good D, solid bat, 34) will get the biggest deals. Walker might be ideal for the Nats and would be where I'd look first. If you are scared of the age there's really only one other option 31 yo Ryan O'Hearn who hits like Walker but is more of a DH. If the Nats don't want to commit big money long term Carlos Santana (formerly great, still all around good, but 39) and Paul Goldschmidt (formerly great still ok but bad trends and 37) are out there for short term deals. If the Nats do something like that I'd hope they are putting money in elsewhere.
If they don't want to fight for a 1B the OF class is slightly deeper but you'd have to bet on being able to get someone on a decent deal and that they'd want to play 1B and you'd have to get over the "lefties at 1B" thing. A Michael Conforto type might be the answer.
Still that seems overly complicated. The Nats need a 1B there is a good 1B fit available. The Nats have $. Just sign the best option. If it takes a 4 year deal you are probably stretching his usefulness but given he's good on the field and at the plate has pop, has patience seems like something will hold up. Although if you are worried his K rate did jump up last year.
I will add the caveat that IF they were to go into the Juan Soto sweepstakes and sign him that gives some leeway to 1B being more of a gamble. Two former Nats that did well here might be amenable to come back Jesse Winker in the "move position" category and Josh Bell in the "had an off year could be cheap" one. I wouldn't make either of these Plan A or even Plan B to most other Plan As but if Soto is Plan A then sure, gamble.
11 comments:
With Walker, I just don’t know that his bat speed is going to hold up. But some of his issues this year could have been injury related. I do think he is likely to want to be on a team closer to contention than the Nats though (e.g., Houston Astros). I mean, maybe a healthy overpay compensates for that?
Someone really needs to explain how you can expect to take a below average outfielder who has never played in the infield and stick him at first base. You don't hide people at first base. First of all you most likely need an infielder at first base. First base is the hot corner for left-handed hitters. You gotta have fancy footwork around the bag to get those loose throws from the infield and step on first base right away. You have to be really good at scooping up bad throws. You have to be quick. James Wood is a great value to the Nats, but he doesn't seem quick enough to play first base. Long strides are for the OF.
I think Harper's take is correct across the board here. When you look at this year's performance and who might be expected to improve, it's the team's number one need and I don't think it's particularly close. Rizzo is probably exploring complicated backup plans like trading for Diaz, but plan A is just so simple - sign Walker.
I'd much rather have Walker for $70M/3 or $80M/4 than Alonso at $175M/7, and that's a higher guarantee than I've seen anyone estimate for Walker and a lower one than I've seen anyone estimate for Alonso. Maybe Walker doesn't like DC for some non-financial reason, but I really hope not because he's pretty clearly our best option.
I think you're right that Wood can't be assumed to play decent 1B defense, but it's also not as simple as you describe.
That wingspan is a huge advantage. And while his issues in the OF do seem to be related to being fast but not quick (not usually a great recipe for playing on the dirt), there's a chance that it's not reaction time but the physics of his huge body that's causing the problem. In that case, maybe his one-step-and-a-dive quickness is average or even better (given, again, how much terrain he can cover just by waiving his arms).
I think we just have to admit we don't know. I'd like the Nats to run him through 1B drills this offseason and, if his actions look passable, give him 15-20 games next year. But I think Harper's correct that you need to give him another season in LF and see if he improves. And that means Wood isn't plan A or B at 1B for 2025.
Tell him, Wash.
You can't really hide someone at 1B, no. There's no place to hide on a ball field. But everything you say isn't true already for a lot of 1B. Juan Yepez isn't good. The Nats played him 40% of the season there. It remains the easiest position to try to transition a player to. (OF is simpler, but not easier)
Other teams will see the same thing though so I don't know how the estimates hold. There are a lot of teams that want a 1B. The Yankees might be distracted by Soto, but Soto can't sign with them AND the Mets, Arizona, Boston, Houston, STL maybe, Cincy/Pit if they are trying...
As part of the Soto discussion, I was surprised at how many of the teams willing to spend money....have lots of dollars available compared to their previous high spending level. We are far from having the most--maybe 5th to 7th in that department.
For the more attractive FA's--such as Walker--there is potential for a lot of interested, well-funded teams and a likely overpay in years, dollars or both. Assuming we don't get Soto and still care about 1st base....I think we have to be prepared to be outbid for Walker. Though I would prefer to spend dollars then prospects, Yandy Diaz then starts to look good....and he is right in our timeframe ($10 million for 2025, club option for 2026). What kind of young players does Tampa typically look for?
It's not so much that "anyone can play 1B," it's that the differences between great/avg/shitty defense at 1B simply don't matter very much. First basemen almost never have to throw, so the arm is irrelevant. I think fangraphs (or somewhere else) did an analysis that showed good ability to scoop poor throws from other infielders had only a small effect on runs allowed compared to worse ability. And first basement just don't field many groundballs given their runner-holding responsibilities. In other words: Adam Dunn was equally crappy at LF and 1B, it's just that his crappiness at 1B didn't matter so much.
Both Soto and Wood could play a competent MLB 1B, in my opinion. Maybe not on April 1, 2025, but certainly sometime in 2025. And one of them might very well be pretty good at it (Bryce has turned into a good 1B, and he doesn't even have to use his arm, which was by far his best defensive tool in the OF).
“It’s incredibly hard….”
Exactly, Harp.
Also keep in mind, speaking of people named Harper, one we are very familiar with transitioned to first base and has become not only competent, but actually quite solid there. Sure, he might be more of a natural than someone like wood. But then again, Wood has a wingspan to his advantage. So it’s not far-fetched that he could be at least decent at first base by any means.
One thought is that if the Nats genuinely like Morales and see him as the future, then they might consider offering Walker a higher AAV on a shorter deal (instead of 3/$70, something like 2/$55) in the hopes of outbidding other potential competitors.
Though if they do happen to win the Soto sweepstakes, they'd be tempted to look really hard at the concept of James Wood, First Baseman, with Yepez/Chapparo as their fallback plan.
(In an ideal world they get both Soto and Walker, of course, and Yepez and Chapparo become Plan B in the event Crews or Young fails to hit adequately.)
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