Pete Rose - dead

I'd say RIP but that guy doesn't really deserve to rest in peace. 

Pete Rose ended his career with 4256 hits.  That's about 70 more than #2 Ty Cobb but almost 500 more (getting close to 15%) more than #3 (Hank Aaron if you didn't know). That's a lot of hits.  A couple of guys in the last 20 years have gotten within a 1000 hits.  Albert Pujols (3384) was close until age 34, and in fighting range until 37 but petered out like most players would as he hit his late 30s.  Derek Jeter (3465) was only about 70 behind at age 38, and was beginning to have a serious case for reaching 4000 if not passing Rose, but an serious injury in the playoffs in 2012 left him nothing but a "prove I can still play" comeback season before retirement. 

So how does one become the Hit King? It's simple, but it's not easy. 

Start early and play for a long time: Rose's first season was at 22, not ideal but early enough. He'd play for 24 seasons. 

Stay Healthy : Pete Rose played at least 150 games in 19 of his first 24 seasons, and in one of those he was healthy baseball was just on strike. He played the most games of anyone in baseball history.

Bat Early in the lineup: If you leadoff you will have over a season about 35 more PA than if you bat 3rd, about 70 more than if you bat 5th. The first number is extra season over the course of a 20 year career, or like an extra 200 hits. Rose batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, about 1/4 in 2nd and nearly all the rest in the 3rd slot. He had the most PA than anyone in baseball history by almost 2000.

Hit well : all those PA don't matter if you are a scrub. Rose hit .303 for his career, and .315 over a SEVENTEEN year stretch. He averaged 206 hits a season from 1968 through 1979

Don't walk too much: Rose could take a walk when he wanted but preferred to hit, and his walk rate was around 9-10% during much of his career.  So despite crushing the competition in plate appearances. He was a modest 14th in walks for a career. 

Surprise a little at the end : When you get old teams generally are fine getting rid of you after a bad year or two. That means two bad seasons after like 36 can pretty much end your career if you aren't tied to a contract. Pete had his first real off year at age 39 in Philly (his first below average year at the plate since he was 23) and could have been set up for a drop in playing time but he bounced back to hit .325 in the strike year.  He was again off in '82 at 41 and flat out bad in '83.  

Get close to a record : That would have probably been the end but he was at 3990 hits at the end of 1983.  Montreal signed him mostly to get the 4000 hit bump and when they got that and his bounce back was more of a barely noticeable rise they traded him to the Reds to finish his career. The Reds would give him his chance to get to Ty Cobb. Rose would rise as much as he could to the occasion. In his month with the Reds in '84 he hit .365(!) and in the following year he began focusing on walks. Despite hitting .265 with his power long gone he managed to have an average offensive year because his OBP was nearly .400. Not great for a 1B but for a guy chasing a record for a middling team it was ok

Refuse to quit : The one thing I'll admire Rose for, which I admire in any player. Refusing to walk away when it's clear you aren't the same player you were, refusing to step aside until the game is ripped from you is a quality one needs to achieve the highest numbers. While I don't care about the chase I do say play until you can't because you aren't getting another chance. Pete did that. While his modest homer power died early around age 31, he was still a doubles machine until age 40. But in that second off year in 1982 it was clear he was just a singles hitter who couldn't play the field. Some guys let pride or shame screw with them. Rose definitely did not feel shame

 

Is there anyone close to Pete now? Manny Machado thanks to a career starting at age 19 is in range but isn't the high average hitter Pete was so will slip further behind even if he plays to 40. Same generally goes for Bogaerts, Bryce and Betts, all in the general area but not healthy and/or not high average hitters. Luis Arraez is probably the best prototypical singles hitter but got a late start so basically can't afford an off year if he's to keep pace.  

There are three interesting possibilities - as much as anyone can be for such a ridiculous target. Ronald Acuna has 815 hits at age 26 (Rose 899) thanks to a two year head start. He's show he CAN hit for high average (.337 last year) but is extremely injury prone you can't see him getting those PA he needs. Vladdy Jr. also had a two year head start and is well ahead of 25yo Rose at the moment 905 hits to 723 hits. He's also been very healthy playing nearly every game now for 5 straight seasons. But while he can hit for average he bounces around as likely to hit .270 as .310.  No the best option is the obvious one. Or let's say the obvious JUAN

Juan Soto had  a three season head start and has 934 hits putting him over a full season better than Rose at the same age. While Soto has had off years no one doubts he could hit over .300... if that was his goal. But Juan also has real power which both lends himself to hitting lower in lineups and lends him to "settle" for hitting like .285 with 40 homers instead of .325 with 25. He makes that up by leaning into something Rose leaned away from, taking walks. While it would be interesting what would happen if baseball told Soto to go for the record, it's likely bringing in more value by smashing homers and getting on base will drop him behind Pete by age 30.