Christian Walker is not a Nat. He's an Astro. 3/60. It's a bit of an overpay by year but the idea of getting out of the contract in 3 years for a player his age is appealing. Better this than a 4/64 or 5/65, imo.
With Walker out that leaves three 1B that would likely next year be an obvious upgrade. Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. The latter two are older so a 1-2 year deal might be possible. I prefer Santana - a slick fielder and more likely to take the shorter deal. There are other middling 1B (Conor Joe! Justin Turner!) but rather than that I'd have them sign like Joc Pederson to DH or something
Time keeps moving on.
20 comments:
For any single player, it's perfectly plausible that they have non-monetary preferences for or against certain organizations. And for any single player, it's perfectly plausible that the team's internal evaluations are significantly worse than our consensus. But...
I wouldn't have hesitated 2 seconds before going to 70/3. And, while I'm not too optimistic about his age 38 season, I'd have gone to 80/4 in the end and been pretty happy about it.
We'll see what other moves the team can pull off, but I can't look at this deal and not think the Nats missed a golden opportunity.
I see no reason they shouldn't sign both Pederson and Goldschmidt/Santana. Do you think Chaparro, Tena, and Yepez need at bats? It seems very likely that they won't upgrade 3rd, so that's a lot of at bats for Tena and Chaparro -- even if they are butchers at 3rd. Yepez is the other half of the platoon with Joc.
Agree with both of the above. For a team in the Nats position, they absolutely should have been willing to go to 3/70 for someone like Walker. But now that they look to be shopping in the discount aisle, there's no reason they shouldn't be willing to sign both Pederson and one of Goldschmid/Santana.
The Astros could offer a lot more for Walker than the Nats could, non-monetary division: the Astros offer a team on an eight year run of playoffs with two WS titles, two more AL pennants, and three more ALCS appearances. They play in a MUCH easier division, in a ballpark that is friendly to RH power, averages 35,000 fans/game and is located in a state that has no state income tax. Did the Nats miss an opportunity or did Walker take a different one?
Given the quality of the player, the number of interested teams and the scarcity of available first basemen, 3/60 makes no sense as the final numbers. We are not the only fanbase wondering why our team didn't offer more.
That being the case, there is no reason to look for a Nats-specific reason. Sure, it could be the extra $5 to $10 million it would have cost to "win" the bidding. It could be that Rizzo didn't want to give up the QO draft picks. It could be that the Nats are well-along in trading for a first baseman. It could be that the brain trust already thinks that Wood will need to move to first fairly soon and want to hold the spot.
But most likely @sms is right: either Walker had a strong preference for Houston or the media evaluators have overblown Walker's value.
Or maybe the Lerner’s aren’t interesting in pouring money into a team they tried to sell a couple years ago? Or maybe this year’s FA class was is pretty meh and therefore Rizzo is comfortable sitting this one out and saving up for next offseason’s class? Or maybe we went in on Fried, Soto, Walker, and tried to trade for Crochet and tried to get Bellinger and failed bc no one wants to come to DC team that is young/unproven and been one of the worst teams in MLB the last four years.
Whatever the reason, I think it’s foolish to think there is some blockbuster trade coming our way. The only thing that there is “still time” for is the spilled tea on how deep the Nats went in negotiations with FAs.
But is it fair to speculate why the Nats payroll from 2012-2019 averaged $164M but we’re sitting at ~$50M right now heading into next season? Is anyone else curious about this? The Lerner’s don’t seem interested in spending on this team (see Finnegan, Kyle). Why? Is it the MASN deal? Is it their real estate empire took a nose dive after COVID? Was Ted Lerner the spender and now that’s he’s gone the family doesn’t want to open the wallet anymore?
It makes this fan wonder, that’s all I’m saying.
@PBN There are a dozen possible reasons why things haven't moved the Nats way so far. I came up with four possibilities and you added another four or so. We are fans, so part of our fun is speculating about these things. Unless we find out more about the Walker signing, it looks like a one-off. You may be right or wrong about what Rizzo and the Lerners are up to, but so far, Walker isn't a proof-point for any of the possibilities.
Watching Naylor get traded, Goldschmidt signing, and Santana signing is frustrating. All of those deals seem reasonable. Other than Alonso, the best DH available is Joc Pederson. After him, I don't think the FA options are really better than Chaparro
Feel better? Nathaniel Lowe is reported as "about to be" traded to Nationals. Two years of arb control. So-so power but a .265 hitter. He must have a good eye because his OBP is .361
@SG: In a way, yes I feel better :) I actually prefer this move over 4/70 for Walker or more for Alonso. Lowe also seems like a genuinely good dude, which is always good. I’d be pissed if I was a Rangers fan and that’s always a good sign.
Now just add some more pop at DH and I’ll be even happier.
I’m mostly happy, I guess. I’d rather have Walker at 70/3 or 80/4, but this is definitely better than Santana or Goldy on one year deals. And probably better than Alonso on 125/5 net of Garcia and the draft pick.
But losing Garcia isn’t nothing and I still think missing out at Walker at that price gives credence to the doomsayers who argue the budget won’t ever come back. And if they are right, a lot of these efficiencies don’t really matter.
I'd rather have Lowe than any of the other options so far. Walker is OLD. He might be fine but I'm happier not raking on that risk.i don't care at all about Garcia. Relievers are too variant, and he only had one good year. This is a great Nats development sorry. Even if he turns out I'd rather relate take Lowe.
He looks pretty Adam LaRoche-y
I think it’s a very good move, it’s interesting because it’s a win this year or next move while reading someone that will help the next 5. So seems like there is some sense of urgency
If the complaints of other fanbases can be used as a measure, this was a great trade. Everybody who still needs a first baseman (Yankees, Mariner, for sure) are angry, wondering why their team didn't make this trade. Those that just got first basemen are mostly seeing this as a better "get" than what their team got. And we didn't have to give up draft picks. Why are some of you still crying about losing Walker (looking at you SMS)?
Missed the fact that the Yankees got Goldie....in reading all of the NY unhappiness that they didn't get Lowe.
Interesting note about Garcia is that it's not clear whether he has four years of team control remaining or five. I regard Garcia as the "anti-(good) Finnegan." Finnegan had good results with mediocre to bad peripherals. Garcia had mediocre-to-bad results with very good peripherals.
Still, it's hard to complain about getting two years of a solid regular player in his 20's in exchange for a non-elite bullpen arm. I mean, we're Nats fans, we'll manage to do it anyway. But I make this trade ten times out of ten. The Nats didn't have to dip into their prospect stash to fill the hole at 1b. I suspect that's because the Rangers are more interested in getting a player already in the bigs than a couple of prospects for down the road. Bochy's not getting any younger.
In many ways this was a salary dump by the Rangers, so it's kind of ironic that Nats fans are complaining that it's a sign of penury on the part of the Nationals.
Well, I have to eat crow on this one, since Rizzo traded for a good player at 1B, solid both defensively and offensively (note that Lowe had 2.7 fWAR to Alonso's 2.8 in 2023 despite being missing some time with injury, and exceeded Alonso 2.8 to 2.1 in 2024), and controllable for two years rather than just one, and at 29 years old any decline won't be age-related. While I'd rather have had Walker, I'm definitely happy Rizzo didn't pony up for 5+ years of Alonso, and this is a better move than trading for 1 year of Naylor or signing Santana or Goldschmidt for 1 year. Garcia will be missed ("Everyday Derek Law" may need to figure a way to actually live up to that nickname at this point), but this is honestly the second-best thing I can think of that Rizzo might have done this offseason to address first base.
My first impulse was to think that Mariners fans must be tearing their hair out at this point, but honestly all they needed to address 1B was resigning Turner, who actually hit well in Seattle last year. Then they just platoon Raley 1B/Turner DH against RHP and Turner 1B/Garver DH against LHB and they're set--the real problem they have is 2B/3B. Yankees fans must be irate, though, and Guardians fans a little nervous.
I'm not sure I'm crying, but Garcia is worth quite a bit more than a round 2 draft pick, so I'm not sure why you're crowing about keeping the pick.
Look, I also make this trade in a heartbeat, and Lowe gives us 95% of what Walker would have for 25 and 26. This is a good baseball move and it's a solid solution to the team's biggest problem.
But I am hoping that, at some point, we see evidence that they're willing to run a league average payroll.
this is a great trade. rizzo has always treated RPs as fungible because, by and large, they are. yes garcia has been good and has more control, but outside of elite RPs, they tend to be very high variance. Lowe had a great offensive year in 2022 and a great defensive year in 2023, with a funky year last year. If he's able to combine 2022/2023, the Nats just picked up arguably the best 1B in the league for a non-elite reliever. of course the odds of that are low(e), but you never know
Post a Comment