The Nats don't have a lot of good pitchers. Gore yes. Brad Lord probably and... uhhh Cavalli likely, Beeter looks good... uhhh Henry? Anyway Ferrer was a young lefty (and MAN they do NOT have a lot of lefties) with good fancy stats that I also liked. But they sent him away to Seattle for a catcher, Harry Ford.
So first what does this signal? Rebuild... probably
Ferrer is only 25 with plenty of team control. Given the Nats lack of LH relief he's the type of guy you keep around. Ford is a prospect still and several years younger than Ferrer. He's more the type you are planning on the next 10 years, not the next 5. However I will say Ford is basically major league ready with the bat so it's not like he is going to spend the next couple years in AAA.
But that also means he's pushing Ruiz and everyone else out (sorry Millas!) which again is very "rebuild" coded.
Second is Harry Ford any good? As a hitter yeah probably. As a catcher...
As a hitter the guy has got a GREAT eye and the question is how good can the bat be and in what way. It seems like he could hit for power. It seems like he could hit for avearge. He's one of those "fast" catchers who will run well and steal bases early in their career. If it all comes together - unlikely but anything can happen - super star! If one thing comes together - likely power - a solid player. If nothing does, still probably usable because of that eye.
But this is all based around being behind the plate and there isn't a strong consensus if that will happen. He excels at parts of the game, fielding in front of the plate, strong arm, but lags behind in, you know, the CATCHER, parts of being a catcher. Still does that first part mean he could possibly move positions? Is this a Biggio situation where we see Ford at like 2B? Hell the Nats also lack a 1B.
I think they point is if he can hit - either for power or average or both (though again more likely power) then the Nats have a lot of options to find a place for him. Catcher if he can play it, 1B, DH, 2B if they want to move someone. If he can't hit - well you have to hope he gets better behind the plate because he can still have value as an average fielding catcher with a good eye.
It's not a bad bet to take for the Nats as his ceiling is higher than Ferrer's but again it suggest the Nats are not going to worry about the next couple years. I think this may be the start of an exodus. Let's see what the next 1-2 moves are though.
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I find it interesting that while Ford's defense was certainly not great, he was clearly seen as a consensus Top 100 prospect and basically no questions were raised about his ability to stick at catcher even though he was clearly seen as a bat-first prospect as opposed to being, say, Cal Raleigh.
Now that he's been traded to the Washington Nationals, baseball writers are all falling over themselves desperately explaining why he probably can't catch and his bat will fall off in MLB, as if they're all collectively going through cognitive dissonance: the Mariners traded him, *and* they traded him for a *relief pitcher* with a high ERA (despite every underlying metric saying that Ferrer was excellent and just handicapped by an infield defense that ranged between "awful" and "war crime"), *and* threw in a lottery ticket besides, therefore there *must* be something wrong with him.
(The idea that teams, especially successful teams making a playoff push, place high value on high-leverage relief pitchers seems to have escaped writers.)
Fangraphs has probably been the kindest - https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mariners-swap-a-ford-for-a-ferreri/ - but it really is shocking to see the baseball media basically try their damnedest to push Ford off a cliff.
I expect that, barring injury or some absolute Spring Training failure, that Ford will start 2026 as the Nats' Opening Day catcher, both because at the least it'll make him eligible to earn the Nats a PPI pick and because even the bad version of him that everyone is spontaneously afraid of is still better than Ruiz and Adams. Whether Millas is the backup or the Nats decide to bring in a defense-first veteran as backup to help teach Ford the catching game remains to be seen.
It hurts to lose Ferrer, who was the only genuinely high-leverage reliever on the team, but a team mired in full rebuild mode shouldn't be hoarding relief pitchers.
I think this is a situation that just worked out for the Nats. I disagree that this trade sends any signals about a rebuild because I think this trade likely makes them better in 2026. I think the Mariners are in the only spot that a team would trade Ford. They can't use him, they are very close to the WS, and they need lefty reliever. The Nats have a good one, so the trade happened. To be clear I think the Nats will reboot the rebuild because they probably need to, but I don't think this trade indicates anything.
I think this is solid, because the analytic line through my years of reading this great blog is that relief pitchers (except for a few rare ones) are fungible. Whereas, other players in other positions are not as fungible.
Harper, I'm late to the "thankful Harper is still running the blog" party, but I'm extremely thankful.
I agree with Harper that with all the noise about trading Abrams + Gore, that this has to be the start of another rebuild. As I think I said a few months ago, I would rather ownership spend big then rebuild, but if ownership won't spend big then this is a team which badly needed a rebuild. (Emphasis on big, this isn't really a big hit on the Lerners because I do think it would take major bucks to fix this team up without another rebuild).
Last thing -- when Harper posted about Ruiz not even being good enough for a backup catcher a few weeks ago, my first reaction was "that's silly, lots of backup catchers don't break replacement level, Harper is being too demanding as he sometimes is". Then I looked at the defensive metrics, and, uh, wow. I like the trade of reliever for good prospect, but extra glad they're finding additional catcher options.
Trading any useful ML asset can be read as a signal towards more rebuilding, and there are zones of the win curve where Ferrer has more value for the Nats than he does right now, but I don't think Ferrer's 4 years of control is meaningfully different in that way from Gore's 2 years of control. I just don't think it's reasonable to infer that Toboni is more likely to be punting on 2028 or even 2026 because he traded Ferrer.
Ford is as ML-ready as anyone who hasn't already performed well in the majors. If anything, I read this trade as signaling some urgency around winning at the major league level. It's not like they traded for Alfredo Duno or Rainiel Rodriguez.
Which isn't to say they aren't punting on 2026 or 2027. We'll see if Gore and/or Abrams are traded. If so, we'll see what comes back. And, most importantly, we'll see if they sign any meaningful FAs. But Ford is going to play this year and projects to probably 2 WAR more than Ruiz. That's a win now move in my book.
Ford makes the 2026 Nats better. In-house solutions for "C" were wretched, there weren't good FA options. This was a slick trade. As good as he is, Ferrer is not as valuable to the team as a young catcher that can hit.
Next move.
Good trade! But if Harper is right and Ford needs to learn how to catch, where can he get his best education: AAA or ML? It's not like the Nats would be blowing their playoff chances by keeping a talented hitter in the bush leagues.
I literally haven't seen any takes that Ford won't stick at catcher. As for the "he has trouble with catching" narrative, that was arguably true AT ONE TIME. In 2022 and 2023, in A and A+ ball, he had 15 and 20 (21 really with one in the AFL in just 44 innings) passed balls. Yikes. BUT ... in 2024 in 67 games behind the plate in AA he cut that down to five PB. In 2025, in 81 AAA games and six MLB games, he had ZERO passed balls. That's a sign of some serious work on a weakness, which bodes well for the young man.
I also agree with SGE that this trade is neutral on the "now vs. later" timetable for building a contender. Yes, Ford is younger and has more years of control. But he's also a HS draftee that has worked his way to his MLB debut in 2025. I think that the way is open for Ford to open the season with the team.
I just saw that players traded after their MLB debut aren't PPI eligible.
Not sure how big a deal that is with respect to Ford breaking camp, but it does take away one of the incentives.
With 28 days of service, Ford would need to be held down through mid-May to steal the 7th year.
Coupled with the Abrams/Gore rumores, I'd say this is a "rebuild' move in the sense that Toboni doesn't expect the team to compete before 2028. Which is a perfectly realistic take. So let's do a "quick" rebuild by getting MLB ready players in exchange for guys who won't be useful during the winning window (Gore/Abrams) or who are fungible (relievers).
Now go out and sign Caratini to be a veteran guy to teach Ford the ropes, trade Gore to the dreaded yankees to get a package including Lombard, and flip Abrams for some pitching
Love the Monty Python reference in the headline!
I would love for the club to sign Realmuto to a deal that is hard to refuse and then jettison Adams and let Ford and Ruiz battle for #2. Light a fire under Ruiz, see if he cares. If not, Ford can learn from Realmuto. Realmuto can be a real catcher for the young pitchers. Not my money though. And can't make him sign for a bottom feeding team. Hence the need to make the offer well above what the Phils or someone else offers. Jayson Werth style signing. Signal that winning is important, even if not immediately.
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