Last week the Nats signed Miles Mikolas as their first "FA to sign to trade later" of the off-season and honestly I like the deal.
For those that don't remember Miles as one of the quality St Louis starters undone by the Nats staff obliterating his offense in the 2019 NLCS, a little background. He was initially a failed starter for the Padres that went over to Japan and had some success. The Cardinals brought him back to the states in 2018 and he performed great, then ok in 2019, then got hurt in 2020, injuring his flexor tendon. He'd get back to full-time work in 2022 and was solid but hasn't been able to replicate that since, likely in large part because at that time he was already 33 years old. The last 3 years he has simply been an innings eater, reliably going out every 5th day to give you 5-6 innings.
He isn't that good anymore but the Nats don't need good. 70 pitchers threw 150 innings last year. The Nats had the two with the worst ERAs with Jake Irvin (5.70) and Mitchell Parker (5.68) and they were that bad. Miles was 11th worst but with a slightly lucky 4.84 ERA, unless age gets his this year, he'll likely put up the same amount of innings as these two with a half-run better ERA. Still bad, but acceptably so, not "we have to find a fading starter at the end of his career to replace this" bad like Irvin and Parker.
Since 2023 Miles has gotten by with impeccable control. If you want to worry that did slip last year to his second worst total since 2018. But at 2.1 BB/9 it's still very good. The problem is it has to be because both his ability to keep the ball in the park and his already weak K rate are slipping too. This is age catching up with him and at some point his ability to not give guys free passes won't be able to overcome the fact guys will get hits then take him deep. Let's hope it's not in 2026.
I do wonder why it's a 1-yr deal as usually a cheap-o two year deal is the way to go with guys you expect to trade simply because if they are doing well enough that someone else wants them, that cheap 2nd year is the real enticement. But who knows the vagaries of the current market. The Nats needed an innings eater and I mentioned Miles as a possible pick-up (Chris Paddack the other choice went back to Miami) so I guess I'm fine with this. It was needed. There's nothing stupid about it. Maybe he has a few months of good pitching and gets the Nats a worthwhile lottery ticket.
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A couple more guys like this and the Nats should be watchable at least. I wouldn't want them to get a full rotation of veterans since they will need to try out the more advanced prospects (plus see if Gray can come back, maybe even give Irvin, and Parker one more chance each), but it would be tedious to have a whole season of guys who wouldn't even suit up for most teams. I assume Scherzer would prefer to play for a competitor, but if nobody picks him up, it would be nice to see him again.
[sigh] Maybe our kid pitchers can gain some insights from a veteran pitcher who has "impeccable control."
I'll be honest: I don't understand this signing, and I don't understand the idea of "the Nats need an innings-eater." As Harper pointed out, if all the Nats wanted was someone to go out every fifth day and pitch 5-6 innings poorly, they have both Irvin and Parker on the staff. Both of them were quite bad in 2025, but were actually decent in 2024. Irvin, in particular, has pitched over 180 innings two years straight, which basically makes him the equivalent of someone who threw 300 in 1910. I'd be a lot more interested in finding out if the allegedly now better player development staff can help them at least recapture their 2024 form, than I am trying to see if Miles Mikolas can be good enough to flip to a contender at the deadline for the next Lane Thomas. We already have Griffin in the "guy on a one-year deal that we're hoping is worth trading" category.
Meanwhile, there's the primary point of the 2026 season, which is for the front office and the coaching staff to get a look at the players we have and see if they're actually worth something. Can Cade Cavalli live up to his potential and become a genuine #2-#3 starter? Is there anything left of Josiah Grey post-injury? What about Brad Lord--can he be a viable starter, or should he be moved to the pen? How about Andrew Alvarez? Were his good results at the end of last season just a fluke? Probably, but he has to be out there pitching to find that out. Will D.J. Herz return from injury midseason and build on his 2024 progress? These are players who need to pitch. I imagine the Opening Day rotation, barring injury, will be something like Cavalli-Gray-Lord-Griffin-Mikolas, with Irvin, Parker, and Alvarez starting in AAA, and...I don't see what's accomplished by replacing Irvin or Parker with Mikolas. Couldn't $2.25M be spent on, say, Justin Wilson or Danny Coulombe, just to get one actually known-to-be-competent guy in the bullpen? (Somebody's got to eat the last four innings of a game, too, after all; half the reason 2024 actually seemed like we had hope for the future was that some combination of Floro, Law, Harvey, and Finnegan could actually be counted on to hold a lead!)
@Dezo. Why Mikolas? Because the 8 starting pitchers you mention (including him) are barely enough to get any team through a season. Because the new development staff isn't going to be able to improve everyone so soon. Because maybe the best way to make Irvin, Parker, and Alvarez into major league pitchers is to give them time to improve in Rochester, where the spotlight is dim and they can experiment with arm slot, positioning on the mound, tipping their pitches, a different mix of etc ? Irvin, for example, has shown he is durable... but still a player with more potential than accomplishments.
February dumpster diving? Hopefully more intelligently done. If it was Rizzo making the exact same moves, my guess is very few of us would be happy. The little enthusiasm I can muster is from the fact that this is an entirely different management and coaching team.
Rizzo's team wasn't able to turn their so-called next generation into performers, let alone stars. I'll give the new team a few months to see if they can do a better job. After the All Star break last year, the team seemed to have lost the will to play. A new vibe was necessary.
Even if the early outcomes in 26 are poor, a scrappy and motivated team will be more entertaining.
Mikolas is another roll the dice tradebait pickup. A "kid with potential" or at least had it at one point. So Tony Clark resigns. Who's going to run the Players Association now?
I agree with a lot of this, and in general it just rubs me the wrong way to bump a guy down to the minors to make room for someone who isn't really any better. But I remember making the same arguments, and with more justification, against the signing of Soroka last year, and what ended up happening was Herz's arm broke in ST and no one went to AAA. So it's also true that starter depth, even 8 or 9 deep, tends to get used.
I don’t know. I don’t actively like the signing but it’s fine. It’s certainly not one of the top 10 problems I have with how the team is being built.
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