The Nats have had a mixed bag from their starters in 2026 which honestly is a good thing considering "big bag of just crap" was a reasonably good expectation. Foster Griffin is pitching to much better results than anyone could have hoped for. Irvin and Cavalli are hitting about where you think they would. Mikolas and Littell are struggling even with PJ Poulin doing some "Relief starting" in their place. But it;s still early and a game or two in one direction or the other can really effect how things look for these guys. Which of these results is "most real" and which ones are likely "fake"?
REAL
Jake Irvin - mediocre back of the rotation innings eater.
Last year Irvin struggled mightily but all his stats are back to 2024 levels. Which is to say not as bad as it looks but also not inspiring. His fancy stats do suggest something better than his ERA but I wouldn't try to read too much improvement into that. His xFIP is middle of the pack but his xERA being down a bit further. xFIP is "in a vacuum" xERA is in part "with the team you got". He's good enough to put in a rotation but if you are hoping he'll be a Top 3 guy that's a stretch. The question set by the last two seasons - is he more a solid #4 or a hanging on #5? - seems to have the answer of "solid 5". His Ks and homers are probably going to get a little worse but some more outs with guys on base will offset some of that.
Zack Litell - bound for somewhere other than the majors
Zack is a guy whose stuff has left him and has survived on guile and pinpoint accuracy over the past couple years. That accuracy is gone and the results of that is what you see. A guy getting pounded. He's got one pitch working and it's a split finger so players can just sit on balls down and hope either the pitch or his wildness takes it out of the zone. If you want to look on the bright side his last outing was by far his best but guys still hit him hard and got balls up in the air and he didn't throw strikes.
NOT QUITE SURE
Miles Mikolas - also out of baseball
Much like Zack Miles has been relying on a lack of walks to get him past his declining stuff. Unlike Zack, Miles is a wily multi-year veteran and has adjusted to his lack of accuracy by pitching down more and really upping his GB rate. That's generally good. The problem is when he misses he's getting creamed. If that doesn't stop neither does the trajectory out of baseball sooner than he probably wants. But if it does, if he can keep getting the GBs and cut the homers, well he should be perfectly serviceable. His ERA is already inflated by some crazy bad LOB% luck and should come down anyway. But down to like 6 or like 4.5? That's what the homers will decide
FAKE
Foster Griffin - anywhere near ace
Since he's been overseas Griffin doesn't have a good expectation on normal so we're more reliant on fancy stats. His BABIP is too low to sustain and his LOB% is pretty high. This would be fine if he got a lot of soft contact but he doesn't. He's hit pretty hard. He's going to give up more hits and give up more runs. The good news is that he should maintain his HR rate which is fairly decent. He looks more like Irvin maybe slightly better. That's still a fine pick-up. 1 out of 3 ain't bad?
Cade Cavalli - middling middle
Despite being 27 Cavalli's injuries means his experience is light, especially in the majors. His off speed stuff is near elite the problem has been the set up with a fastball and sinker that both have done nothing. That isn't new for the sinker but the fastball being off is what's causing the issue. Maybe he's being too cautious with it? His HR rate has dropped like a rock despite in general getting hit comparable to last year. Given his experience and prospect status, I'll lean toward general improvement from what's been a fine but uninspiring early season and something more like 2 or happy to be your 3 type stats by year's end.
6 comments:
After the Nats DFA, or trade for a bucket of used baseballs, Litell and Mikolas, I'd really like to see them give Brad Lord another shot as a starter. He's only good for 5 innings, but he had some good outings last year. Mitchell Parker looks good in relief, so I'm unsure whether I'd put him back in a starter role. But it might be worth trying.
You’re wrong, Griffin is the truth. Sign him for 7y and build a team around him
You seem to confirm that, out of the group they are rolling out, the 2026 Nats have -- at minimum -- solid 3-4-5 pieces. We don't have the powerhouse front line starters from the days of Max, Strasburg and Zimmermann.
Isn't this a glass half-full situation for the rebuild? The lineup is much better than expected -- and there are ample slick fielders and power hitters on the way. Modern player coaching, management and motivation seems to have made a difference. Against a difficult schedule, they have managed to stay pretty close to .500.
Perhaps the Butera brain trust has an agreement with the owners. Perform well in 2026 -- they unlock money for decent FA pitching in 2027. Assuming there is not a lockout.
Sign him long or trade him. The only dumb move is "neither."
I'll concede that a spending plan like you suggest is not impossible, but I think you should prepare yourself for disappointment. I think the most likely scenario is that next year's team will be even more comically under-resourced than this year's. Remember that this team + Gore was deemed unworthy of investment last year. The theory that they misjudged the existing talent and are now regretting that decision assumes facts not in evidence.
This is what I expect will happen. The team will shed most of the players being paid $2M or more. Williams, Littel, Mikolas, and Griffin are FAs. Abrams will be traded and Garcia Jr will be nontendered. Cumulative savings of $32.8M.
There will be about $5M of arb raises, mostly for Irvin and Cavalli. Herz and Gray will take rotation slots if healthy - say one of them will be. Seaver King is called up to play 2B with Nuñez covering short and Morales or Ortiz or both will cover Garcia's share of 1B. And that's 24 roster spots filled for around $35M.
At that point maybe the team will go shopping for a frontline starter or two but, until I see it happen, I'll be expecting something from the usual $5M/1 bin. At least with Strasburg's contract off the books it will be harder for the team to hide among the other cheap teams and it will be clear that the Nats are being uniquely under-resourced.
I would just like to thank Harper for doing for Foster Griffin what he did for the catchers earlier in the week.
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