FINAL KIDS REVIEW - THE ARMS

THOMPSON - 4.15 ERA 11.6 H/9, 1.7 HR/9, 5.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9  (5.71 FIP)

Thompson's call was supposed to be a fastball that popped from his tall frame, but a TJ surgery early in his career has him still searching for his stuff.  This year he moved to the pen (a theme with these young guys) to potentially help but his minor league stats with San Diego did not show improvement.  His Nats time was only in the majors and we saw all the issues that he has had for a few years now.  He can't quite generate enough swing and miss stuff. He's too wild and hittable otherwise. At best he's a project who needs time in the minors to see if he can first get his FB back and then get everything else in order. At worst he's nothing. This is a guy who hasn't put up a FIP (think ERA stripping away luck) under 5.50 since he was 18 in the Rookie League. Either way I can't see why this guy would be in the majors to start next year. It was fun to have him up and see if you could catch lightning in a bottle. Nothing of the sort happened. Time to start the work. PESSIMISTIC 

GRAY - 5.31 ERA 8.0 H/9, 2.2 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 9.0 K/9  (5.71 FIP)

Gray started looking pretty decent, then was very very bad for several starts, then ended the season ok. If I'm being honest this year he did not look like a major league pitcher. He gave up far too many homers and was far too wild and it was only by the grace of God that his ERA for the season was in the 5.00s and not the 7.00s. But this season was an aberration. In the minors prior to 2020 he didn't give up a lot of homers or hits and had reasonable control. So I don't want to get too caught up in what he did this year.  What should happen is probably some more time in AAA. He only had 8 starts in AA and 3 in AAA before coming up to the majors.  A half-season to see what flaws pop up and a chance to work them out against lesser talent would probably serve him well. But I think he will instead end up starting and working them out which might me a rougher and longer road to success.  Still I think the results will come.  In my head he's replacing Ross/Fedde as a mid-rotation project and unlike for those two he's at an age where seeing what the next 2-3 years bring makes sense.  OPTIMISTIC

MURPHY  -  5.30 ERA 9.2 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, 11.1 K/9  (3.38 FIP)

Another TJ return guy (by now you know this is Rizzo's shtick) and another converted starter. He had been improving as a starter but not particularly fast enough and he had been injury prone. Given his age it was time to try something new. Now the Nats have him thanks to a forced move off the Jays 40 man and have a choice. Keep him as a reliever where he's been able to up his K game - but otherwise looks vulnerable, or try him out as a starter again, where he was effective but would need to go back down and most people think he tops out as a back of the rotation arm. My guess is reliever wins out. I've heard nothing otherwise. Getting to his actual pitching - his peripherals look ok.  He keeps the ball in the park and doesn't get hit too hard. His control is a bit off, but not too bad and if he can keep a higher K rate the three positives should outweigh that one negative.  Ideally I'd like to see him tried first as a long relief pitcher. It's very likely needed for next year's Nats. But the Nats seem averse to that role. The question is whether he'll be a short reliever in the majors or AAA. Like the above guys I think AAA is a better fit. Like the above guys I bet he ends up in the majors. I think there is something here but there's a 2-3 year clock ticking to have it work out. NEUTRAL

ROGERS - 3.28 ERA 8.1 H/9, 1.8 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9  (5.83 FIP)

Josh Rogers isn't a prospect.  You have to tell yourself this because the ERA and some of the last starts make him out to look pretty good. But the peripherals are bad and have been bad since 2018. In theory he's a John Lannan type - a guy who lacked the stuff to strike people out but could control the game for 5 innings then get out.  But John had a knack for keeping power down that Josh doesn't AND by Josh's age Lannan had started 130 major league games.  Rogers was released by the Orioles. Think about that.  He'd have to become a different pitcher entirely to stick around even in the back of a rotation. But nothing gives me much hope of that. He was never able to strike out a bunch of minor leaguers. He found himself often to be VERY hittable.  He could work back to a point in his past where he had very good control and didn't give up homers and might be a guy you can call up to spot start but I'm not even holding on to that given his recent AAA stats. Be happy you got what you did from Josh. Now cut bait.  VERY PESSIMISTIC

KLOBOSITS - 5.56 ERA 10.3 H/9, 0.0 HR/9, 4.0 BB/9, 4.0 K/9  (3.88 FIP)

Gabe keeps the ball in the park. Like to an insane degree.  In 112 minor league innings he gave up 2 homers. With that kind of stat you can see why he'd see success in the minors.  But you'd also say Hmmm 112 innings in the minors? Since 2017? Well unsurprisingly there was a Tommy John surgery in there, costing him most of 2018 and 2019. Then 2020 didn't happen. So basically Gabe is a big old question mark. That heavy ball also means the limiting of hits which is good. But it also means a lot of balls in play.  Coupled with pretty poor control things can get out of hand if he can't miss bats. He showed he can do it in the minors but can he do it in the majors?  I've said this often but the majors isn't just a step up from AAA.  When you step up minor leagues you are mostly dealing with guys at that level - the good guys get moved up. There is no moving up from the majors. The best talent goes nowhere but the plate to face you. We'll see.  It's certainly worth kicking the tires on Gabe again as a deep bullpen peice but like Rogers and Murphy he'll be 27 next year and he's probably peaking now. If he can't do it in 2022 there's very little chance he can do it beyond that. Given his very limited innings and being a pitcher I remain PESSIMISTIC 

RODRIGUEZ - 5.92 ERA, 9.2 H/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.3 BB/9, 7.4 K/9. 

They love this kids fastball. The idea is he'd get a little control and begin to miss bats, get weak contact, and win games. It hasn't happened. And we're not talking 100 innings here. Jefry has thrown over 700 total innings since 2012 and it all says the same thing. His control is too poor to work out. When the pitches go where he wants it works but when they don't, which is often, he misses off the plate for walks, and more so in later years, he misses into the plate for hard hits.  Jefry is now 28 (though 27 for most of 2021 so he sneaks in this analysis) and will be 29 in July of 2022.  There is nothing here. Let another team try for the miracle.  VERY PESSIMISTIC

JHON ROMERO/JOAN ADON - too few innings to judge at the majors.

FINAL KIDS REVIEW - THE BATS

Let's go over the final lines for the young bats and note how optimistic / pessimistic I am about these guys 

GARCIA - .242 / .275 / .411 - The bad news is in neither his brief early stint nor his later one did he look major league ready.  The good news is that he didn't look incredibly overmatched either.  He also ended with a .298 / .313 / .468 run in his last 11 games.  He looked like a 21 year old with promise which is what he is. His fielding needs work which is kind of worrisome but hey, there's always 3B if he doesn't improve. You'd like him to take that next step to usable major leaguer sooner rather than later, but the honest truth is he has two more years before you stop giving him chances given his age and contract status. He's gotta play everyday to start next year.  STILL OPTIMISTIC

RUIZ - .284 / .348 / .395 - Another slow start strong finish (last 10 hit .351 / .415 / .541) early returns on this part of the trade are very positive. Ruiz looks kind of funny swinging so there's a question of whether the league can adjust to him but you can't look at this line and think he won't start for the Nationals next year.  It may be a platoon situation, or he may be the starter, but he will be playing.  Another positive here is only 4 Ks in 80+ PAs - a lot of contact in a league now where that's more and more a rarity. Arguably an early ROY candidate. VERY OPTIMISTIC

KIEBOOM - .207 / .301 / .318 - I'm sure others have fallen further faster but I'm pressed to think of one. Kieboom looks lost at the plate and ended his time in free fall (.119 / .224  / .149 in his last 18).  He's yet to hit in the majors for anything more than a cup of coffee. Worse than that he looks lost in the field, too.  It's a joke now if he even understands the game.  I can't see him playing to start the year. The Nats might feel differently but to me he needs to straighten his head in AAA.  Again.  Worst case scenario for this guy. VERY PESSIMISTIC

ADAMS - .268 / .422 / .465 - The guy was fun. While the Nats were waiting for Ruiz to get all the time he needed in AAA, Adams split time at catcher and crushed it - hitting over .300 with doubles power. Then Ruiz came up and Adams barely played.  So what do you do with the guy? You can always use more catchers, and having two young under control catchers? That's a dream.  But he's 26 halfway through next year and you are probably never going to be able to sell higher on him. Why? He's a strikeout machine (closing on 40% this year in the majors) and guys like that don't usually keep producing. I think I'd trade and if he develops so be it. Ruiz is your catcher.  NEUTRAL FOR HIM AS A PLAYER. OPTIMISTIC NATS CAN TURN HIM INTO A GOOD RELIEF PITCHER OR SOMETHING VIA TRADE

THOMAS - .270 / .364 / .489 - A very pleasant surprise for the Nats.  A 4th OF type who the Cardinals didn't need, he struck out a lot and didn't quite do anything good enough to compensate for that and his middling patience. But for the Nats it came together. In about a third of a season of at bats the Ks went down, he hit for power, AND he was much more patient than he had been.  Is this a real change in batting? A change of scenery or tutoring making the difference? If so Thomas is a starter - although he's not really a CF, especially with Soto in RF*.  He's also probably not good enough that you want him in the other corner if he regresses a little.  There's a decent bet that he sees a fair amount of time given the other issues the Nats have to deal with. Given that we'll have time to see what he is and adjust accordingly for the years beyond 2022. I think at worst he's a league average hitting 4th OF and that's fine. OPTIMISTIC

STEVENSON - .229 / .294 / .339 - this probably should be the last call for Stevenson. In all his longer major league stints he's struggled terribly and given he'll turn 28 around Memorial Day next year he's too old to expect anything more than what we've seen, which is offense well below the needed production to play in the majors.  However Stevenson can field so if they want to do something with Robles - like get him reset in AAA, or they don't like his look coming back from injury, or they don't like him and don't want to deal him- there are valid reasons to keep the super cheap player who can play late inning D and pinch run. Carry 5 OFs and he's a 5.  But you don't usually carry 5 OF anymore, and usually decent OFs are available in FA (see Schwaber, Kyle). So I don't like these chances. It'll all depend on Robles, if he's in the majors I don't think Andrew is. I don't think they jettison him given their depth issues but Rochester is likely where he'll be. PESSIMISTIC

*Yes I'm not buying one year of questionable defensive improvement especially when it started as "he's oddly the best OF in baseball now?" and regressed all season long back to "no he's not - he's passable"

Rooting Interests - a Primer (with Nats!)

The playoffs begin today and you know how I feel. I want the Yankees to win. I need the Yankees to win as I don't do well without championships and it's been 4 years since a team I cared about won a title. That's a long time for me. Weep for me. 

I would rank my rooting interests as follows

Yankees - Brewers - White Sox - Dodgers - Braves - Giants - Astros - Cardinals - Tampa - Red Sox

You need to make your own decisions so I'm here to help. 

Yankees (no current Nats connection) 

Pros : It'll make me happy. Will reset the "Yankees don't have a title" talk that annoys everyone. Aaron Judge is fun! 

Cons : 12 years isn't enough time to feel sorry for a fanbase, especially one with 27 titles. Yankees fans expect to win so it's no fun when they do win. Not like they need the exposure.

Red Sox (Schwarber, Brad Peacock pitched for a hot minute this year 15.19 ERA!) 

Pros : Maybe 5 titles this century will stop fan base from acting like they are America's lovable underdogs when really America sees them as the Boston Yankees.

Cons : It won't. We're only a few years removed from Boston having won in three major sports at same time. Don't want to reward the "iykyk" team.

Cardinals (Jon Lester, Justin Miller on IL) 

Pros : Arenando and Goldschmidt are good players who deserve a title, maybe Happ and Miller to a lesser degree. Umnmm... hmmm...  you are a Cardinals fan?  Maybe it makes Max happy?

Cons : Cardinal fans are just as annoying at Yankees and Red Sox* fans but think they aren't. Another good not great team winning would mean that many more "right way" articles. Have plenty of titles and it's only been 10 years since last one.

Dodgers (Max! Trea! Souza played this year!... blake treinen.) 

Pros : Max! To a lesser degree Trea! They are the best team talent wise. They developed, spent money to keep those players and get better ones, traded for best players at deadline. Really all teams should follow this model. It should be rewarded.

Cons : Come on, they just won last year. Even if for legal reasons we didn't want to see slow movement on Bauer stuff. Only I care about "best team gets rewarded"

Rays (Hunter Strickland was there...) 

Pros : Have become a perennial contending team who's been right at the doorstep for years. Fanbase might be tiny but they still have fans that suffered through a lot for no title yet.

Cons : Epitomizes worst aspects of modern baseball trying to stretch all the rules and regulations both on field and off to maximize wins at lowest cost. Not at all concerned with actually winning a title as shown by constant jettisoning of talent and lack of deadline moves. No org treats players more as fungible assets to be used up and discarded.

White Sox (Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez**, Brian Goodwin (IL)) 

Pros : Who cares about the White Sox? The other team in the other other city. There'd be a nice symmetry to the Nats/White Sox trade getting them both titles.

Cons : LaRussa is close to contemptible and shouldn't get to snag a title by jumping in on a team everyone knew was going to be good. Reinsdorf is also a pretty bad screw the players guy. Like all owners may be but we know he is.

Astros (Dusty!) 

Pros : Dusty wins. Also you like Brantley and Greinke could use a title to cement his HoF case.

Cons : Cheating cheaters dumb enough to get caught win again? The redemption stories that we'd have to hear? No thank you.

Giants (no Nats connection) 

Pros : Story of the season. Magic team of veterans on one last magic ride. Make Phillies fans mad to see Kapler win.

Cons : It's not like these vets haven't won - they have 2-3 titles with the last one just like 7 years ago. Kapler is a weirdo who likely said "not my problem" to harassment issues when he was with the Dodgers. Personally I don't think the luckiest teams should get rewarded.

Braves (Jon Lucroy? Jon Lucroy! 5 games for Nats, 2 for Braves) 

Pros : I have a friend who's a Braves fan who'd be happy. It has been 26 years since the last one and they've been too good of a franchise for that to be a fair result.

Cons : They still do the chop. Last thing you want is your division rival to win it all. Pretty mediocre season for a team to win it

Brewers (... Hunter Strickland is here. Would ZNN get a ring?) 

Pros : Never won a title. Great logo. Bob Uecker. No one cares if the Brewers win.

Cons : No one cares if the Brewers win. If you want to get hung up on Hader it does feel like he should have gotten more flack than a couple nights of online chastising, an apology, then a standing ovation? Yeah he was a kid (17/18) but like take a class? Do community service? I mean every team has probably like a half-dozen guys like this but you have to be very good and hidden in Milwaukee to slide like this.

*Yankees fans know they are and own it. Red Sox fans know they are but pretend they aren't. Cardinals fans are oblivious.

** Lopez had been out much of year but came in to be a good reliever. Eventually they started to start him again and that probably messed him up a little.

Monday Quickie - Zimm Appreciation post

About 65 or so days after Livan Hernandez threw the first regular season pitch in Nationals history or about 95 or so days after Tony Armas Jr threw the first Spring Training pitch the Washington Nationals selected Ryan Zimmerman in the 2005 MLB draft. You never know exactly how it's going to go with draft picks but Ryan Zimmerman quickly showed himself to be major league ready, and foreshadowing the Nats strategy of bringing up players when they are ready not when they can squeeze an extra year out of them, he debuted the first of September that very same year. Pinch hitting for Jason Bergmann (last game 2010) trying to get a hit off of Jim Brower (last game 2007) He'd strikeout looking but that would be a rarity that first month. He'd end up with a .397 / . 419 / .569 line and generate a lot of excitement for what was to come.

What did come was a career both great and frustrating.  Zimm would take a few years to develop, but when he did he was great. In 2009 and 2010 he'd put up a .299 / .375 / .518 line with Gold Glove defense and was in the argument for the best player in baseball. He'd never quite get back to this level again but one hallmark of his career was giving the Nats year after year of above average offense hitting .280-.300 with very good power and decent patience. He even got a knack for big hits late in games earning him the nickname Mr. Walk-off from fans*. For his career he's ended up with a .277 lifetime average and almost 300 home runs.

In 2008 though Zimm would hurt his shoulder and we'd get the first taste of the other hallmark of his career, injuries. Zimm would be hurt often and would miss a stupid amount of games for someone that hung on for so long. In one stretch from 2014 to 2016 he'd almost miss as many games (215) as play (271) and he'd only play one full season after turning 28. A second shoulder injury in 2012 would lead to a 2013 off-season surgery and basically end his career at third and he was no longer able to throw the ball with any consistency or force. He'd find his way to the OF then first to keep playing but the thing that made him one of the best players in baseball, that sparkling defense, was now gone.  Later he'd battle plantar fasciitis that would keep him from running and limit him to PH for a while.

If one imagines what might have been, say averaging 150 games a year instead of 118, you have a player who'd have 2300+ hits instead of 1846, 350+ homers instead of 284, and 1300+ RBI instead of 1061.  That's Top 100 players all time in homers and RBI and Top 150 in hits. That may not seem like much but think of the history of the game and how many players have taken the field. To be one of the 100 best offensive players of all time and play great defense? That's a Hall of Famer. 

Of course you can play the what if game with anyone and "no injuries ever" is certainly a stretch, but if you figure he hits a little better not being hurt young it probably works out like so. That he had hall of fame talent is undeniable. 

But more than the player on the field was what he represented off the field. He was the Nationals. He was the hope of the Nationals when the team was young. It's first 1st round draft pick and an immediate star who would drive in 100+ runs and almost win ROY at 21 in his 2nd season. He was the one of the only things to hang your hat on as the Nats bottomed out 2007-2009. The only good young everyday player when you were trying to convince yourself Jesus Flores or Lastings Milledge could join him.  He was a sign of the good times to come in 2010-2011, with the career year in 2010 and the furious post-injury 2nd half in 2011.  His signing that long term deal before 2012 made him the ever-present bedrock for a team that would be in the playoffs year after year from 2012-2018, as we watched some players come and go. Then finally he was the stand-in for all the long time long suffering fans during the break through title in 2019, the guy who was here, like you, for everything before.

If this is the end for Ryan Zimmerman (and you have to think it almost certainly is - I can't see him back unless the Nats make a real run at a division title next year and I can't see them trying to do that) he did everything he could for the team for a decade and a half. Taking those cortisone shots, hitting when he couldn't run, being placed wherever in the field the team could put him, signing hometown discount contracts to end his career. He is Mr. National, a player any team would want to have, and this team did. 

*Does he deserve the moniker? Yes.  His 11 GW home runs aren't the most ever (Thome had 13, a handful of of guys had 12) but he's the only guy with 10 or more that doesn't have 300 homers. In fact the lowest number of career homers for a guy with 10+ GW homers is 351 (Dick Allen) 

Last weekend of 2021

Thank god, right? A season that saw the Nats verify that their crappy COVID season wasn't a fluke, had a sell-off of fan favorites midway and ended with maybe the second worst record in the 2nd half no matter how you define it (I'm pretty sure the Pirates are the worst) needs to end ASAP. Is there anything to look forward to in this last series other than an embarrassing amount of terrible Red Sox fans in the stands and an embarrassing amount of WaPo Sports Desk rooting interest jokes from me? Sure!

Nats can knock the Red Sox out - this week wasn't kind to my hope for as much chaos as possible. The A's and Phillies choked, sealing up the NL East and knocking Oakland out, respectively. The Giants luck continued keeping them 2 games ahead of the charging Dodgers and making a tie there very unlikely. The Yankees kept separated from the pack by taking 2 of 3 in Toronto (ok I wanted that).  

So really what we are looking at is the 2nd AL WC* The Blue Jays get the Orioles at home. They need to, and will be expected to, sweep. The Mariners play the Angles at home, they need to, and will be expected to, win the series. The Red Sox are in DC playing the Nats and need to, and will be expected to, win the series.  That would leave the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Red Sox tied at 91 wins a piece.That would be fun. But you know what would also be fun? If the Nats take 2 games at least and leave the Red Sox out of the mix. 

Juan Soto MVP? - Soto has a bad series vs Colorado. 2-12 with two walks and 2 singles which dulled the "he's so awesome you HAVE to vote for him talk" but at the same time Bryce was terrible in the Braves series that could have wrapped it up for him and Tatis' Padres team continues an incredible free-fall.  There are no good choices and Soto having a big series and helping to change the course of the playoffs by keeping Boston out might just be the final thing needed to get him those votes. 

Juan Soto other thing - Soto is within striking distance of Turner for the BA title. He needs 4 walks to pass Joey Votto for most walks in a season since peak roidin' Bonds and before him you get to 1969 and that expansion. Boston probably will be careful with Juan so the batting title will be tough, but the walk thing might be easy.

Last Ride fo Zimm? - Ryan keeps things close to the vest and it's probably completely up to him as you'd imagine the Nats would take him back as he's taking super cheap deals and providing decent production. On one hand, he's put up his worst BA of his career outside the nightmare 2016 season and the team isn't going to be playing for much next year. On the other hand, we all thought he might stop after winning the ring and taking the COVID year off and he didn't.  I always say play until THEY say you can't anymore because there is no going back. Svrluga has an appreciation up just in case. 

Last Ride for Davey?  - Just kidding. He won't get fired. But I will note his career record with the Nats is now 11 games UNDER .500. He's missed the playoffs 3 times in 4 seasons and the owner of the three worst records the team has put up since breaking through in 2012. 

Fun fact - some people have suggested using record vs Pythag to judge managers but it hasn't shown much consistency to seem practical. For instance Dusty has 11 seasons over and 12 under by that measure. Luck by itself would probably have you waver + or - 0.020**.  Davey has been under all 4 years. Bad luck? He also hasn't been particularly close. 50, 11, 55, and currently 37 points under.  But hey. He won a series, right?  

Draft order. It's 5 or 6. Nats vs Marlins. If this is your thing.

We'll look at where all the kids ended up Monday and then start the season recap.  Enjoy your weekend.

*though the Yanks could easily get swept by Tampa and that opens up the chance the don't make it as the Mariners and Red Sox and Toronto all play sweepable teams

**so if you had a "true .500" team you might win 84 games one year and have a .518 WP% (+0.018 over  .500) and 78 wins the next and  a .481 WP% (-0.019)

Be lucky

The Mariners beat the A's again. The Mariners - who are a whopping 14 games over their pythag expectation (expected W-L record based on runs scored and allowed) have been bouyed by being 15 games over in 1-run games. Is it something a team can count on? Not at all. But damn if it doesn't drive a nice narrative when writing about a team's season. 

They have passed the Blue Jays who are a solid 8 games under their pythag and a middling one game under in 1-run games. (and also play in a deeper division). 

The Giants are going to have their best year possibly ever in a season where people predicted them to finish maybe a distant third. How are they doing it?  Well catching a few breaks (+4 pythag) helps but also this :

• Posey - best year since 2015
• Belt - best year ever (at 33!) 
• Crawford - best year ever (at 34!) 
• Longoria - best year since 2012
• Duggar, Wade, Ruf - are fill-ins having kind of their best years ever
  

Who's disappointing?

Li'l Yaz - who they probably expected to be good and is merely ok, Alex Dickerson a little bit I guess

 ALSO 

• Gausman - best year ever
  
• DeScalfini - Best year since 2016
• Webb - best year ever
  
• Wood - first healthy year 2018 
• Cueto - best year since 2016
  

relievers Zack Little and Dom Leone are also having best seasons in a long while/ ever.  As was starter Aaron Sanchez before getting hurt.  A team where 2/3rds of the roster are performing at the very top of expectations?  That can explain an 81 team easily crossing 100 wins.

Who disappointed? 

Ummmmm, maybe Kazmir? That's like 11 innings. 

They were supposed to be well behind the Padres who are fighting to stay above .500 now. Why? Again being on the unlucky side of where the ball bounced hurts (-4 pythag) but there's more to it.

Here's a list of batters for the Padres doing surprisingly well. 

• 
  

What about pitchers? Ok same list for them 

• 
  

Got that? Not many flat out disappointments, maybe Pham or Hudson since they traded for him, only a couple injuries (A 3/4 season of Tatis obviously, C Nola would have probably helped) but nearly every guy performing on the low end of expectations. A whole team spitting out at 90-95% of what they could do, takes a 95 win team to 81.

Them's the breaks. Baseball isn't fair.

Monday Quickie - Final Week Reset

The Nats are doing something.  Mainly I think waiting to see if Soto is awesome enough and Bryce falters enough (and the Phillies fail) so that Soto can win the MVP.  This past weekend was finally a cool down as Cincy - a good team actually trying for something - pitched around him and otherwise looked to contain him rather than see if their pitchers could challenge him. 1 single in 8 ABs. A lot of walks though (7) and only 1 strike out so you know - it's just luck of the draw really. 

The point though was the rest of baseball is looking at a possible furious finish somewhere and early this week might help set that up.  Since we're all baseball fans here, let's try to enjoy this pre-playoff playoffs. 

 What's (pretty much) set? 

The AL division winners and very likely their order.  The Rays and White Sox are officially in and the Astros are in an "only an epic collapse and epic run" situation, so we'll use a heavy pencil for them.  That same situation applies for the #1 seed as Tampa at 97 wins has 6 more wins than the Astros (91) who in turn have 3 more than the White Sox. That last is not a given but 3 is at the limits of what I consider a workable comeback when there are only 6-7 games left.  When you can be perfect and the other guy has to be under .500... yeah that's a tall ask. I mean it COULD happen but let's go ahead and assume it won't

The NL Central  The Brewers might have been the best team in baseball from the end of May through the end of August and were so far ahead of the Cardinals that they haven't played well and they still have a 7 game lead despite the Cardinals not losing for 3 weeks. 

The Cards will be WC2 - It's 6 games so literally it is a "lose all, they win all" situation to knock them out. I might consider that around 4 games. Not at 6. Not with no H2H left

The NL order - It'll be the West 1st, the East last and the Brew Crew in the middle. The gaps are pretty crazy, currently 8 games on one side and 10.5 on the other.

What isn't? 

The AL Wild Card - The Yanks just swept Boston to keep them from hiding with the WC1, but they were behind so it doesn't clear up who's in and out.  The Yanks have a one game lead on WC2 Boston, who has a 1 game lead on Toronto, who have a 1 game lead on Seattle, who have a 1 game lead on Oakland.  Any loss is a brutal loss of ground on someone. 

The NL East - the Phillies did their job but the Braves got the embarrassingly stumbling Padres and swept them away.  The Phillies are 2.5 games out with a 3 game series between the two this week. Losing the series all but ends it, winning the series 2-1 probably not going to be good enough either but it keeps the hope alive. If you are wondering the Braves will only play 161 unless they have to play 162 - a late rainout in Colorado is the missing game. 

The NL West - The Dodgers have the second best record in baseball and are in 2nd place two games behind the "no one gets it either" Giants. The Giants get the D-backs and the Padres so should hold on but THAT'S WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME

Games to watch tonight

Athletics @ Mariners matters for both of them. A loss for Oakland might just knock them out with so many teams ahead and Tor / NY playing eachother. Not impossible but... well you know, I've said it several times

Def games to watch this week

• The rest of A's @ Mariners
• Phillies @ Braves
• Yankees @ Blue Jays  

Rest of the games that matter somewhat

• Red Sox @ Orioles
• Dbacks  @ Giants
• Padres @ Dodgers

If with the Nats out you only root from drama what would be the craziest outcomes? NL is easy :

• Phillies sweep Braves - Phillies up 0.5 games going into the weekend
• Dodgers win 2 more than Giants (either they sweep and Giants go 1-2, or they go 2-1 and Giants get swept) - Tied going into final weekend

AL is tougher. With Toronto and NY playing eachother and Seattle and Oakland doing the same, someone is going to lose ground on someone and Seattle and Oakland really can't afford to. Here are some options.:

• Orioles sweep Boston, Yankees Sweep Toronto, Oakland beats Seattle 2 games to 1.  That gets you Boston one game up on Toronto, Seattle, AND Oakland heading into the final weekend (Yanks would be 4 games up and in in this scenario) 
• Another scenario would be Orioles sweep Boston, Yankees beat Toronto 2-1, Seattle beats Oakland 2-1. This puts Oakland out and the Yankees up 3 with Boston, Toronto, and Seattle all tied for the 2nd WC.
• But if you are going to let Oakland go a better crazy scenario is Baltimore takes 2 of 3 from Boston, Toronto does same to the Yankees, Seattle sweeps Oakland.  Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Seattle are all tied at 89 wins going into the final weekend, but fighting for two spots not one. 
• If you must somehow keep 5 teams going... let's see. Oakland wins 2, Boston gest swept.. I guess Toronto has to win 2 (or sweep - it'll amount to the same, but it's my blog so let's say win 2).  That gets you : Yankees 90 wins, Toronto 89, Boston 88, Seattle/Oakland 87.  If this happens you can get to 5 teams tied at 90 wins to end the season.
  

Most Valuable Point of Talking

With nothing much to talk about as the season winds down (there's only so many daily takes you can have on the young players) the Nats talk has shifted to "Can Juan Soto win the MVP?"  It's a fair question because as we discussed before - Juan's offensive season is fantastic, probably best in the league and his defense is fair enough not to hurt his cause (also helps that the other contenders close offensively aren't great defensively either)  

Juan continues to make his case by being incredibly hot, in the past 8 games he's hitting .519 / .641 / .852. This is thanks to a mix of his amazing talent, complete lack of pressure, and facing a series of teams who don't care about winning and are filled with young, mostly crappy, pitchers, getting a chance as their own meaningless seasons wind down. If you think I'm being dismissive by mentioning other things understand that the above is true for everyone and they aren't hitting like this so it IS mostly his amazing talent. 

Bryce (past 8: .423 / .568 / .769) and Tatis (.343 / .395 / .543) haven't been as hot (who could) but they have kept up their ends at the plate. Unfortunately for Tatis his team has tanked and in a worst case scenario could officially be out of the playoffs in a few days.  Unfortunately for Bryce, who's team has actually gone 6-2 recently, the Braves (4 in a row) and STL (10 in a row!) have kept his team on the outside looking in. 

The question comes down really to what you think an MVP is and frankly I've said this before many times and will continue to do so : If you make an award selection a vote you are making it inherently subjective and you are LITERALLY ASKING PEOPLE WHAT THEY THINK. So they should be able to vote any way they want and as long as it seems somewhat defensible it should be ok. If that makes you angry I'm not sure what to tell you. I assume you don't want a computer spitting out a WAR value and the award just going to that person. I know I don't. That's not fun. 

Some people will look at Juan and say "That's the best player" and give it to him. Defensible

Some people will look at Bryce and say "Value is about how important the games are and that's the best player on a team that had a chance for the playoffs late in the year" and give it to him.

Some people will look at Tatus and say "Actually this is the best overall player AND his team was in the playoff hunt most of the year and we'd know this if he didn't miss a month" and give it to him

Hell some people will look at Tyler O'Neill and see the player helping to carry his team to the playoffs (.345 / .413 / .745 during their 13-2 stretch). Some may even look at Max  (7-0 0.78 ERA) and see this guy trying to carry his new team to a division title. 

ALL THESE ARE OK.  Argue what you want but if you get mad at this... well nothing will happen to you but I will think less of you and you don't want that.  You want my esteem!

But Juan is unimpeachable! You see what he's doing!  

Yes I do.  I've seen what he's done all year.  And that means I saw his run hitting .247 with 2 homers and 3 doubles over a month of baseball while his team went 9-19.  Remember that 0-5 stretch where the Nats got swept by the Orioles? The one pretty much everyone agrees that killed the season?  I remember. And I remember Juan had 2 hits in 16 ABs and only drove in himself on a solo homer in those 5 games. 

Obviously you can find these stretches for everyone but the point is - Juan isn't impeachable. He's had bad stretches during the season when the games mattered before the sell-off and those bad stretches are a big part of the reason he's on a team so bad now that they can't win with him hitting like Babe Ruth on greenies even playing garbage teams. 

Juan could win the MVP. He's had a deserving season. If he does great. But if he doesn't - that's ok, too. This isn't a slam dunk and there likely isn't time to make it one for him.

KIDS

 

GARCIA - .239  / .275 / .403 (last 7d - .316 / .316 / .368) A bunch of singles

RUIZ - .278 / .328 / .315 w NATS- (.471 / .500 / .529) I know I said don't even start to judge him until this season is over but it's a relief to see him hit a little. Even if there's a .500 BABIP backing him.  More important is that 1 K.  More worrisome is that 0 BBs (he got hit by a pitch if you were looking at the OBP)

KIEBOOM - .213 / .311 / .333 (.053 / .217 / .053) - Not looking forward to those first 40 games to start next year. But you can hardly sell lower so I don't see what other options the Nats have with this guy at this point. 

ADAMS - .288 / .413 / .500 (.000 / .333 / .000) - still barely playing - only 6 PA in the past week. I do question why Avila needs to play at this point though. Those 6 PAs should be Riley's.

THOMAS - .292 / .384 / .531 (.259 / .355 / .556) - Not as awesome and still striking out way too much, but you'd definitely still take this as a 3/4 OF type. 

STEVENSON - .228 / .285 / .327 (.250 / .250 / .250) - Also a victim of playing time.  This guy is done here.

THOMPSON - 3.15ERA 1.700WHIP 4.96FIP 10.4H/9 1.4HR/9 5.0BB/9 8.1K/9 - A much better week with no homers or walks. Relief pitching flops around a LOT. A starter starting once will give you 5-6 IP a week. A reliever tops out at 3. 

GRAY - 6.15ERA 1.434WHIP 6.75FIP 8.5H/9 2.8HR/9 4.4BB/9 8.7K/9 - Ugly last start. Control is still lost.  I'm not sure if he's nipping to avoid the homers but the solo homers were honestly better. He can go deeper in games and also not leave games in trouble.

Patrick MURPHY (26)  - picked up released Blue Jay - not a good week for Murphy, not striking out anyone in 1 1/3 and his guys coming around.

 Josh ROGERS (26) - 2.16ERA, 1.000WHIP, 4.52FIP, 8.8H/9, 1.1HR/9, 2.5BB/9, 5.8K/9.  Rogers though - really upped the Ks some how and lowered the BBs. Helps to face MIA and COL. MIA is one of the worst hitting teams in baseball and COL on the road (.215 / .290 / .348) makes them look like Juan Soto's.  That being said this is still good (and the bad pitching you've seen is REALLY bad)

Monday Quickie - 5th pick

Not that the Marlins can't suck right past the Nats but the Nats are now in line for pick #5 in the MLB draft instead of pick number 6 which is like getting $1.10 instead of $1 but hey - that dime can get you into a picture show and where else are you going to experience cool comfort in the city on a hot August day? 

Let's see what the Nats can get by going over 20 years of 5th round picks 1999-2018

The Good

• Johnathan India
• Kyle Tucker
• Drew Pomeranz
• Buster Posey
• Matt Weiters
• Brandon Morrow
• Ryan Braun
• Mark Teixeira
  

These guys have all become good major league players. India and Tucker are still getting established but are having breakout type years. Pomeranz never became a star but had a couple good starting years and has reinvented himself as a good reliever. Morrow was a perfectly good starter who couldn't stay healthy. For all the Nats issues with Wieters, it was mostly injuries that kept him from being better than he was - which was still a starting worthy C for 7-8 years. Posey might be a HoF.  Braun and Tex not too far behind that. 

The Bad

• Kyle Wright
• Cole Ray
• Nick Gordon
• Clint Frazier
• Kyle Zimmer
• Bubba Starling
• Mark Rogers
• Justin Wayne

Some of these names you know, but none have been successful in the majors. Wright has so far been bad as a starter for the Braves but might turn it around.  Frazier has had limited success, but injuries and now a strange dizziness is keeping him from having a useful career. Bubba Starling has been around long enough to work out some power - but nothing else - in the minors.

The Ugly

• BJ Garbe
• Clint Everts
• Chris Lubanski
• Matt Hobgood

These are the guys that never made it to the majors and as it's been a while since the most recent - never will. Long time Nats fans might remember Clint Everts - a 2002 pick for the Expos that was a name bandied about very early in Nats days as someone that might show up in the show. 

Anyway this gives you a general idea of what to expect from a 5th pick. You have a good chance at a good player, but that means basically a coin flip. You have a low chance of a complete wash out, but not NO chance. 10-15%? The 20 years before that are less kind - there are good names - JD Drew, Vernon Wells, Jack McDowell, Dwight Gooden - but a lot more complete washouts with 12 players with no ML games or negative WAR compared to 6 in the more recent 20.  I like to think teams have gotten better and identifying and developing talent.

The 3rd pick is a better chance, 1st and 2nd not guaranteed but you kind of have to mess up. After that you seem to be in a group where you gotta decent chance at a good player. It actually lasts much longer than you might think - to around pick 15.  If you look at the last 20 years and all those picks as a whole there are probably a half dozen good players to be had from 4-15. The question is if you can ID one in your slot (or if you get unlucky, have a lower pick, and the guys ahead of you all get it right like the 2005 draft) 

The Nats will get their chance next year and maybe the year after, too!  Rizzo has rarely just flat out messed up a first round pick, with only Michael Burgess - a supplemental 1st rounder in his first draft in 2007, never seeing the show.  However he hasn't been able to really sneak in a great player with those lower round picks excluding maybe the injury drop Giolito. The head case Drew Storen? The lifetime 5th starter Fedde?  Maybe Dane Dunning will be the one that makes it - although not for the Nats. 

However note that I stopped that 20 year look at 2018.  That's because we still haven't seen the fruits of 2019 on.  The guys picked in 2022? Maybe you'll see them in 2025 or 2026.  They are only going to help the team in the sense of setting up the organization, not in making the major league team better anytime soon.  It could be real lean for a while and we'll know that this off-season. The Nats could fill SS with a FA and there are plenty of top notch FAs. Will they do it?  Even if they don't sign that great SP they desperately need and they don't become a winning team, signing a FA whose contract goes past 2025 would signal to Soto they do expect to win by the time he needs to re-sign. And that - that's the key to everything. Showing Soto there's a reason to stay.

ELIMINATED and Juan-VP?

 From the WC race. 

You can't follow the E# all the time. They don't factor in H2H. With the Padres and Cards both winning last night and playing a series on the weekend one of those two HAS to end up with 77+ wins. That eliminated the Nats who are now capped at 76 wins when they go on their wild, win every game for two weeks, finish to the season. 

The NL East is still alive, but any win by Atlanta OR the Phillies would do it (since the Phillies play Atlanta later the same - someone has to get to 77 wins applies).  

The Nats are a couple of losses from being 20-50 (currently 20-48) since the end of June.  I mean that's hideous.  A lot of you guys note it's the pitching far more than the surprising hitting that's been bolstered by Juan Soto again being JUAN SOTO. He is back from the "dead" and hitting like he did last year and that brings up the question - can he win the MVP? 

This gets of course into the question of "what is valuable" and how people see the award. Personally, I'm fine with people voting however they want because voting is, at its core, subjective. Don't ask people how they think then say "no you shouldn't think THAT".  So some people are going to see this as value toward getting a team to the playoffs. If that's the case Soto probably won't win because... well you know.  But he still might in that sense because the other two players up there in value (Bryce and Tatis) also might miss the playoffs.  If it's a question of which player gives his team the most he obviously is in it. 

 Right now we have as the best hitters (we'll leave pitchers out of this for the moment)

Soto .314 / .457 / .527  25HR 85RBI  171 OPS+

• For - incredibly hot since the ASB, up there among of the best runs in past 20 years. Doing it despite having no help after the trade deadline and being walked all the time
  
• Against - early season issues/injury depresses some of his numbers, early season weird good D numbers have been balanced with more recent bad ones leaving him at meh. Gives really nothing else (Bryce has more SB) team isn't just not winning they are losing at a historic pace.
  

Bryce  .309 / .424 / .614 32HR 73RBI  180 OPS+

• For - best overall hitting numbers, also red hot since break, team is in division and WC race
  
• Against - team has never gotten more than a few games over .500, most of his homers have been solo shots helping to keep his RBI numbers down which people like for MVP guys. Not anything to speak of in the field
  

Tatis .286 / .369  / .627  38HR 90RBI  173 OPS+ 

• For - clear power leader especially considering missed time. Not a great SS but not a great SS is better than not a great corner OF like the other two, gives a speed dimension (25SB) other guys don't, team is in WC race
  
• Against - Missed time kept him from putting up unignorable gaudy homer/RBI numbers, team actively collapsing late, has been great since break but not like Bryce or Juan have been, team has a worse record with him than without.
  

Not super clear. A hot finish by any of the three could separate them more and I think that coupled with a playoff appearance by the Phillies or Padres would seal the deal for either of those guys. 

What about the teams in the lead? 

Max Muncy, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts have all had about the same offensive impact for the Dodgers, but don't separate well from eachother. Betts is fastest but Dodgers don't run. Betts is a good fielder but Muncy is too and a valuable move around piece and catchers are usually given a bump. I can't see a coalescing here. 

The Giants best bat is Brandon Crawford and he's still a good SS though not like he was in his youth. Can't see him getting it though. The Giants narrative isn't about one guy pulling them through

Brewers aren't a particularly great hitting team - they are led by their pitching. Their best hitter this year has been Willy Adames and he's only played 88 games. (Yelich has been hurt and off)

Braves best hitter is Freeman but Duvall leads the league in RBI and everyone knows their best player is actually the out for the season Acuna. I mean maybe if Freddie just goes off the last two weeks, given his general presence in baseball he gets into the conversation, but it'd have to be a hell of a three week run. 

Any other great hitters? 

Bryan Reynolds - look if you are considering him you've already voted for Soto

Tyler O'Neill - Cards best hitter and they have surged to a playoff run. Still I think the lack of recognition, 61 RBI, along with the not hitting like the other guys, will keep him from any consideration

Jesse Winkler - He's been hurt too or else he might have HR/RBI numbers that catch some voters eyes. But he was hurt and he doesn't so he'd have to carry the Reds in to get a look.

Pitchers very rarely can get in the conversation. On that end Wheeler who became an ace for the Phillies this year and leads the league in IP and Ks is the most valuable pitcher in general but if the Phillies get in you have to think Bryce will be the focus. One of those that would need an incredible finish to get spoken about like a Hershiser scoreless streak. Scherzer is an interesting one. He missed some time so the innings aren't there but he's been more dominant than Wheeler and unhittable with the Dodgers putting up a 6-0 record and an 0.88 ERA.  I think there's an outside chance if he keeps doing what he's doing and the Dodgers take the West. I'd actually put him 4th most likely right now. Then we get a couple Milwuakee starters who would split votes and Buehler and Miley and Guasman. Buehler wouldn't win it over the other 4 Dodgers mentioned (this is why they are so good), Gausman isn't the story, Miley I think everyone knows is a fluke year and would be real hesitant about giving it much play. 

In the end it is those three. And if the season were to end today - with all three out of the playoffs, I'm not sure where the votes would end up. I would rank their chances right now as 

Tatis - Bryce - Juan 

Where in they really want to give it to Tatis, if not to a playoff guy.  After that I'd go 

(gap) Max (huge gap) Freeman (gap) O'Neill (gap) Wheeler

Three of these guys are only going to be considered if both the Phillies and Padres miss the playoffs. They also need strong finishes to bolster their cases.  Wheeler would need a strange sequence of events where the Phillies make it - he's incredible, Bryce slumps badly, but I'll put it in the "not impossible" camp.  Anyone else I see and just not having a chance. 

Tuesday Quickie

 I had quite a week at real work so I let the blog go bye (one of the perks of this not actually being a source of income or anything) and the Nats obliged by mostly stinking. They have slowly regressed (since BEFORE the trade deadline) to one of the worst teams in baseball but it's a little late to get to the true dregs and get the Nats a Top 1 or 2 pick in the draft. For a while now they've been heading toward a fight with the Marlins over 5/6. The remaining 4 (BAL, ARI, PIT, TEX) are just too out there to catch.  I suppose the Twins could really try to tank and get in the mix with the Nats and Marlins. but annoyingly seemed to have fight in them yesterday. 

Anyway - how's the kids? We'll go with overall AND last 7 days for you

GARCIA - .228  / .266 / .404 (last 7d - .185 / .214 / .481) You can pull something positive from here with his minor power bump this past week. Otherwise it's rough. He isn't walking enough or hitting enough in this extended trial. But if he can show some pop - maybe some sort of Danny Espinosa going forward? If not good, he was useful. Still super young though so there's time even beyond 2022 to see what develops here. 

RUIZ - .121 /.194 / .152 w NATS- (.077/ .250 / .154) The good is no strikeouts. the bad has been everything else. Doesn't look good at the plate at all. Still though just called up in comparison to these other guys. Best first look at stats will take place at the end of the year, not now.

KIEBOOM - .230 / .319 / .366 (.130 / .200 / .130) - has his moments but starting to have enough ML time where you start to wonder if this is it. Not yet but next year as he goes 24-25 will definitely be the decision year. Maybe strikes out too much and doesn't give you much of anything particular. Also looks lost in the field.

ADAMS - .311 / .425 / .541 (.222 / .364 / .556) - barely playing now because Ruiz also needs at bats. He definitely strikes out too much but unlike the others has power when hitting so far to make up for it. 9 XBH in 73 PA with the Nats. An interesting piece who might make for a tough decision next year for the Nats if there's no DH and they get a 1B. 

THOMAS - .293 / .383 / .515 (.185 / .333 / .407) - the new hotness also strikes out a bit much but has shown a very useful plate discipline that can carry him through times like this past week when he doesn't hit. Looks like a fine replacement for the old hotness

STEVENSON - .223 / .282 / .325 (.000 / .000 / .000) - 0 for 6 if you must now.  Not a kid but relevant to this discussion, the old hotness is done. He actually had a very good week before that but he'll be 28/29 next year and mostly hits like crap when given more than 50 PAs. No reason for him and Thomas to be here and Thomas is younger, looks better, is under more control.  

THOMPSON - 3.78ERA 1.860WHIP  5.56FIP 10.8H/9 1.6HR/9 5.9BB/9 8.6K/9 - I keep saying this guy doesn't strike out enough to make his wildness acceptable. He also gave up a couple of bombs and gets hit a lot.  I wouldn't say give up on him but I would put him back in AAA next year to work on things because this isn't playing at the major league level. Yes only 16IP.

GRAY - 5.85ERA 1.450 6.86FIP 9.0H/9 2.9HR/9 4.1BB/9 8.8K/9 -  In Gray's last 3 starts he has an ERA over 12.  He's lost the zone and that means fewer Ks and more BBs and the guy can't do that because of his HR bugaboo. How bad is it? In about a 3rd of the starts Gray has wriggled his way into the Top 40 NL pitchers in HRs given up.  At this pace he'd give up over 60 for a season. For guys with less than 50IP for a season (Gray is at 48) He's given up the 3rd most homers ever in the history of the game. And the other guys on the list have under 50IP because that's all they were allowed. He HAS to get the homers under control. 

Patrick MURPHY (26)  - picked up released Blue Jay - only 12IP so grain of salt 5.25 ERA 9.8H/9, 0.8HR/9, 3.0BB/9, 12.0 K/9.  The peripherals would work in the majors.  Unfortunately the key one here - that K number is anomalous. He just doesn't do that.  The rest though... I could see him being last arm in the pen useful as a guy who won't give up a bomb, just another arm type.  You need those. 

 Josh ROGERS (26) - 3.65ERA, 1.297WHIP, 5.27FIP, 8.8H/9, 1.5HR/9, 2.9BB/9, 4.4K/9.  Yes in this day and age he's striking out that few batters. Now that won't work long term and his ERAs... pretty much everywhere since 2018 prove it.  Why is he pitching and not selling cars? Early in his minors he had a heavy ball and good control and that can work with no Ks. But hasn't been the case last few years.  I'd expect him not to be here next year

I wouldn't say things are grim but there is nothing really to hang your hat on right now. Again AGAIN it's early for a lot of these guys.  Everyone but Stevenson and Rogers will probably be around next year and will have a chance to work on their issues.  Guys like Garcia and Ruiz are young enough to have more than a year to get it right. But they need something to work out here and not Thomas is a good 4th OF, Murphy is a decent 5th reliever for a few years, type of things.

Me and Davey remix

Yesterday I got on my Davey stinks horse again and got to listen to people give him a lot of excuses.  Look here's what I see

2018 : Handed a team fresh off 95 & 97 win seasons won 82 games

2019 : After a terrible start, guided team to 93 wins and a playoff run that ended in a title. 

2020 : with basically same team minus one impt pitcher and hitter went 26-34, a 70-92 win pace

2021 : Sort of the same as 2020 bc that pitcher got hurt had the team at 47-55 (75 win pace), that led to a sell-off and a much worse team that he's helmed to an 8-21 record since the big deals (45 win pace) 

I see underperform, overperform in playoffs, underperform, underperform p1, underperform p2. 

Now YOU can take that and some how come away with in 2018 2020 and both parts of 2021 it was just the fault of bad rosters and bad luck and the REAL Davey was the 2019 Davey. OR you can be logical and say maybe 2019 was the outlier and EVERY OTHER MANAGING THING HE HAS EVER DONE is the truth. 

I don't see why this is so hard. 

I respect that he won the series and I've said that if you want to keep him around in the lean years bc why not? I guess that's ok.  Especially if when you do replace him it's with a veteran manager who won't need some lean years to get his feet wet.  I also fully acknowledge that it's hard to figure what a manager is worth and it's probably not more than a handful of games either way. 

But still LOOK AT THE ABOVE!  I can't be the crazy one here. Like the team now is bad. It might be the worst roster in the league but also the Orioles, the second worst team, are still probably going to win 50 plus and the Nats are playing worse than that. Sure it's a month but again they had Schawber and Scherzer and Turner and Hudson and Ross and Harrison and Gomes and were still heading to "maybe 3rd" territory. 

When cold soulless analysis runs into fandom is where this job gets tough* and this is one point where it has happened. Davey should go. Maybe not now but now would be fine! (well after the season - this isn't a midseason necessity) The facts are pretty clear. Could I be proven wrong? Yes  I get things wrong from time to time. But I'd be surprised. 

 

*note - this is not a job, nor is it tough.

Crazy goal

I set a crazy goal for fun before the Strasburg injury - Orioles sweep - trade-off effectively ended the season. It was "don't lose another series". If they did that at that point, only split or won, they'd end up with 87 wins and 87 wins is a pretty good bet to win the East.* BUT if they lost a series they'd have to make up that win elsewhere - for example moving from the 2-1 hopeful win to a 3-0 sweep in a normal 3 game set. I was curious how is that going?

Ok, I KNOW it's going bad but how bad? Turns out the Nats have won only two series. One was one with the Cubs at end of July. They also swept a two game set against Toronto.  So that was actually outperforming hopes (I only said "don't lose" - so a split was the goal). But everything else? Well take a look :

Swept 0-3 by BAL : Need to Make-Up 2 games since 2-1 was the goal

Tied PHI : On Target

Beat CHC : On Target

Swept 0-4 by PHI : Make-Up 2 more.. so Make-Up 4

Lost ATL : Make-Up 5

Swept 0-3 by NYM : Make-Up 7

Swept 0-3 by ATL : Make-Up 9

Swept Tor 2-0 : Make-Up 8 (gaining back ground!!!)

Lost MIL : Make-Up 9 (lost it)

Lost MIA : Make-Up 10

Lose NYM : Make-Up 11

Now since they already lost the first PHI game they can't make anything up this series. They can only win both to match hope.  After that there are 9 series left. 7 are normal three game sets. Let's say they sweep them all that'll "make-up" 7 of the needed games. But we still need four wins. Ok there's a 5 game set with the Mets. Hope was 3-2. Instead they go 5-0. That's 2 more wins made-up. Two to go.  Cincy 4 gamer. 2-2 split hoped for. Go 4-0. DONE! 

The Nats can still hit their hoped for goal of 87 wins. All they have to do is win every game going forward. 

 Go 1-0 today, everyday.  

 *Even now with ATL playing excellent and PHI ok, 87 still might not be reached. ATL has to go 17-15 to do that. PHI even with a weak schedule probably tops out MAX expectation at 88. Playing decently 84 is more likely.

Monday Quickie - Kiebert it is

 Looks like I was wrong.  Looks like Keibert Ruiz is going to be here NOW (like tonight) and Tres Barrera is down to AAA and I guess that's ok.  Personally I would have stuck to what I thought they were going to do. I think for sure the Nats are going to have Keibert as there starting C next year so why not use another 2 weeks to see more of Adams and Barrera at the major league level? I guess though they thought they had seen enough of Barrera. 

KID UPDATE

Carter Kieboom .095 / .240 / .143  (.226 / .333 / .368)   2 hits in a week will do that to you.  We can probably officially put the "just needed some uninterrupted low-pressure playing time" theory to bed and go back to "needs fixing"

Luis Garcia .217 / .250 / .304 (.208 / .258 / .350)  Not a good week for Garcia as well.  The trends are down. You know what that means? Buy low! Get your "I still like Garcia" merch here! Move up to a better seat on the bandwagon!

Tres Barrera .333 / .500 / .667 (.264 / .374 / .385)  - got his half time games in and hit a bunch and got sent down so... I don't know.  If I wanted to overthink it I'd say they sent him down so he didn't KEEP hitting and thus make some people question using Ruiz at all if Ruiz didn't hit this year and in Spring.  But for that to actually be correct Adams would also still have to be super hot...

Riley Adams .400 / .538 / .500 (.254 / .346 / .423) - He is! The week's SLG isn't that good - it's only high because they average was. So more homers please!

Lane Thomas .130 / .167 / .217  (.198 / .324 / .279) -Huh.  You see what happened was Lane Thomas started super hot (see last week's update) then he had a nice game against the Mets on Saturday and you though "Oh they are mentioning him again. I bet he's kept doing real well" Except no. In all the other games last week he had 1 single in 19 ABs. Also 7 Ks and 1 walks. So a bad week. One more of these and his Nats stats will reflect that and you might not hear about him again the rest of the season. 

Josiah Gray - 1 start 3.00 ERA 1.33 WHIP 10.5 K/9 (3.75, 1.194 WHIP, 10.5 K/9)  A good start from a decent Miami team. He'll pitch twice this week starting tonight in an interesting game. The Phillies offense is ok.  Losing Hoskins hurts but they can hit a homer and have a real strong top part of the line-up. More importantly the Phillies have seen Gray now once. Let's see if twice makes a difference. The Braves in their second time did more damage.

Mason Thompson - 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 4.6 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 (13.2IP, 3.290ERA, 1.8 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)  I like to think of this as the best Mason can do.  When he's in control (no walks this week) then it doesn't matter that he's hittable and can't strike people out. He's useful.

Gabe Klobosits - AAA

Patrick Corbin so bad - not so bad - bad again

Corbin's season was defined by his first two games. In those outings he gave up 15 earned runs and 6 XBH (4 homers) in 6 and a third. He walked 7 and struck out 6 and looked every bit those stats while doing it. After that he had a 21.32 ERA and spent the rest of the season playing catch-up. 

But for half the season he was... fair.  His next 15 starts were thrown to a 4.24 ERA. In 87 innings he walked only 24 and struck out 67, gave up some homers (14) but didn't seem lucky or unlucky by BABIP. This wasn't the pitcher the Nats wanted and not the pitcher the Nats needed, but it was a pitcher the Nats could accept. If Corbin was this for the next three seasons, some sort of version of Gio Gonzalez, that'd be ok. Eat up 6+ innings, punch the clock, go again in 5 days. That has real value especially for a rebuilding team who are going to throw some kids who either can't or you don't want to go deep. 

It's also important to realize THIS might the Corbin to expect. This is the Corbin of 2016, 2017 and 2020. The 2018/9 Corbin might just be a peak/fluke combination. 

Since the ASB though Corbin has regressed. Still not very lucky or unlucky by BABIP, but 13 homers in about half the innings. Is that it? Just bad luck with the homers? We'd like to believe so but the data shows someone who all year has continued a 2020 trend of giving up more flyballs and line drives.  A guy who, while never a soft contact savant, has had the trouble this year keeping that number up too, cratering to under 10% the 3rd time around an order. In other words lots of FBs and LDs hit pretty hard especially in his later innings. There are going to be runs of lots of homers. You an say this run is unlucky sure, but the season? That's most likely evened out and that means a guy who is definitely homer prone. 

This is made worse by the fact his Ks are down. If he strikes out guys - those are definite outs, game moves quicker and he's not seeing the third time around until the late 5th or 6th innings. But more bats on balls, more hits, all of a sudden it's the third time around in the 4th and you gotta keep him and boom. 

But Corbin can't be an opener, not for this team as constructed going forward. He's gotta learn to do something different later, even if it's 9 batters of junk. Get them to put it in play and hope for outs. Because what's going on now - trying to get through the third time around with stuff that barely played the first two, is ending up in disaster.

Tired: Kieboom Wired : Keibert

That's KAY-ber(t).  Sorry if the title mislead you.  Here's him saying it.

Well right after saying all his PCL (yes, yes I know AAA-West or whatever) homers were ending up as EL doubles Ruiz goes out and hits four homers in two days. K-bert and Gray are really they keys to the trade deadline being success or failure because of the talent given up for them. To see both do well (Gray had another fine outing - sure it was the Marlins and he gave up another homer but all I care about right now is him coming out giving the Nats a chance to win, which he did) is the best reasonable expectation for the Nats to have. 

Ruiz is now hitting .318 / .384 / .636 in AAA and the question is how long he'll be down there. Rizzo is not much of a service time manipulator which is good because most of the time the far end doesn't matter as much as the near. But Ruiz is in AAA to play everyday. Would he play everyday in the majors? Not "is he good enough to get that time" but "are the Nats ready to do that"

Tres Barrera is nearly 27 (Sept 15th) which puts him bottom on the totem pole and up until a week ago his hitting was basically average. Add that to a generally unimpressive minor league career at the plate (.704 OPS in AA in 2019, .668 in AAA before call-up) and you'd think you'd have no problem sitting him or sending him down. But he has been tearing it up lately .421 with a homer in his last 6 games.

Riley Adams just turned 25 (June 26th).  He struggled even more than Barrera initially and has shown some power and patience in the minors but isn't really seen as a long term answer given his generally high swing and miss numbers. Maybe sit or send down Riley? But he's even HOTTER in HIS last 6 games;.476 with a homer and 3 doubles

Too many good players is a great problem to have but it's still a problem. The solution is probably very simple. Ruiz will come up but most likely it'll be when the minor league season ends. There's no real reason to throw all these guys around before that. The Nats aren't playing for anything. Neither is Rochester, if that matters. My guess is Riley remains the back-up, spot starter, Tres hangs on as emergency catcher. However there are scenarios where either guy just sees his season end or sent down to FL for some end of season work. 

Expect to see Ruiz soon but not TOO soon. A little more than 2 weeks or so.

Nats around the world

A month ago the Nats were in the middle of the series that probably killed the season (for good or for bad). After disappointing against the tough NL West the Nats righted the ship with a series win over Miami and then went up against the terrible Orioles. They really needed a sweep to get back close to .500 and instead they got swept. 

The end result was a trade off and the beginning of a rebuild that may take years. In the meantime the NL East leader Mets faltered leaving an opening... but the Braves ran through it with a 9 game winning streak, so the Nats couldn't have exactly stumbled into first place by luck alone. 

Anyway figured I'd look around - see how all those traded guys are doing with their new teams... well I'M interested and it's MY blog!

MAX - 3-0 2.11 ERA 0.984 WHIP  1.7 BB/9  13.1 K/9  - He's Max doing Max things. He's pitched a little better for LA than he was doing in DC.

Trea -  .328 / . 365 / .483 - probably a homer short of what he was doing in DC but certainly everything the Dodgers could have hoped for

(Side note : If this makes you feel bad I don't talk about the minors guys but Keibert Ruiz is hitting well for the Nats - PCL homers becoming EL doubles but he just turned 23. Donovan Casey has been on fire and is hitting homers - though he's 25 in AA. Gerardo Carillo... Look, they can't all be winners, nearly a 5.00 ERA in AA and deserved - but also only 22. Adding in Gray early indications are the rare win-win trade)

Harrison - .255 / .333 / .373  not great but his job is to fill in all over the place and not be bad and he's doing just that. Has already playing 2B, 3B, LF and even 10 innings at SS which he hadn't done at all since 2013. (stats say - there's a reason why he hasn't) 

Gomes  - .250 / .250 / .479 - some homers. Splitting time with their other catcher, Sean Murphy, who seemed to be wearing down. He's hit better with the extra rest so overall it helps even if Gomes could hit a bit better.

Schwarber - .368 / .538 / .526 - gamble and are gonna play him until breaks. Not his fault the Red Sox are scuffling unless you blame him for his no homers. 

Lester - 7.08 ERA 1.820 WHIP 4.0 BB/9 3.5 K/9 - Does familiarity with the NL Central help if you stink? Nope. He's not a 7.00 ERA guy, but he is a 5.00 ERA guy.  I wonder if he can do something if he accepts this is his last hurrah and save nothing for a 2022 that looks like it obviously won't come bc right now those K values (down from 6.1 K/9 with Nats and 6.2 last year) look like a guy who's trying to nibble his way to success

Brad Hand - 6.43 ERA 1.429 WHIP 2.6 BB/9  6.4 K/9 - not as bad as the numbers make it out to be. He's mostly been fine. It's more that when he's been bad he's been awful. It's a gamble every time he comes out there 

Daniel Hudson - 6.23 ERA  1.846 WHIP  4.2 BB/9  12.5 K/9 - now he's been bad, giving up a run every other appearance so far and a runner on in all but one, but we don't hear about it because giving up 1 run three times in six games is somehow better than 3 runs twice over seven games. I don't know. Also Riley Adams? Good.  Mason Thompson? Not so much. A lose-lose deal?

Monday Quickie - Adams and Thomas start hot - you need to be cool

Not much more to talk about for the moment. If you care about draft picks this is a pretty big series against the Marlins, who the Nats briefly fell under a few days ago. But otherwise even their potential for spoiler is limited with the Braves surging, the Mets falling, and the Phillies being their .500 self. San Diego may be hurting but it's Cincy and St. Louis taking advantage of it. As it probably should be, we've all seen the NL East this year.

Kid Watch - Now with season stats!  Look don't get too caught up with what these guys do. A lot of time other teams are feeling these guys out and that can mean a different set of pitches than they'll see 100 games from now, or 200. Remember Tyler Moore? 10 homers in his first 170 PAs.  Then 20 HR in the remaining 681 in his career. Victor Robles, who a lot of people are ready to write off who is still younger than three of these guys (and just a few months older than Kieboom), hit .288 / .348 / .525 in his second cup of coffee. What they do now means something but it doesn't mean everything.

Carter Kieboom .250 / .409 / .625  (.259 / .356 / .424)   Nice week for OK Boomer as Carter hit a couple homers and walked 4 times. 

Luis Garcia .167 / .211 / .222 (.206 / .261 / .361)  Rough week as he still looks to get the power going. (He was the Nats leading power bat in the minors. Though you'd probably put Ruiz there now)

Tres Barrera .500 / .600 / .500 (.256 / .358 / .354)  - barely playing bc Adams is so hot at the plate.

Riley Adams .500 / .563 / .929 (.230 / .309 / .410) - so hot at the plate.  .600 BABIP tells you it's a hot streak but you should have figured that out from the .500 batting average.

Lane Thomas .636 / 733 / 1.000 (.222 / .372 / .302) - see above. More interested in the 1 K, Strikeouts and the potential for a bunch in the majors has been an issue for Thomas.  

People have asked about Thomas more given his start and the truth is he's not a bad player. Cardinals are just stacked at OF.  Their starting group is 22, 26, 27 and all hitting above average. The injury fill in is also 27 and above average. They have a 25 yo in the majors they like, they just moved up a 22 yo to AAA they like, they have a 24 yo in AA that's been a pleasant surprise. There are a handful of teenage ROK guys with real potential. They didn't see Thomas as more than a 3/4 guy, and with this glut of talent he was the odd man out.  They probably aren't wrong but still for Lester - who is a guy who can eat innings against dregs and not much else - it's a coup even if all he ends up as is a slightly better Andrew Stevenson.

Josiah Gray - 1 start 3.00 ERA 1.00 WHIP 6 K/9 (3.90, 1.167 WHIP, 10.5 K/9)  Middling results.  Gray has now given up an incredible 11 homers in 30 IP and it's a race to see if he gets better or the league starts killing him, because these homers can't keep being solo. 

Mason Thompson - 1.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 3 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 (10IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.8 WHIP, 7.2 K/9)  Wildness finally caught up with Mason this week, but really it's that lack of Ks that bother me. For a live arm, he doesn't seem very live. 

Gabe Klobosits - 2.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 2.25 WHIP, 3.4K/9 (11.1 IP, 5.56 ERA, 1.588 WHIP, 4.0 K/9)  another bad week, another week of proof he's not a major league pitcher  

Some promising hittng results, some not promising pitching results. I'll take a mixed bag right now.

The rest of the majors

 Hope you enjoyed that YouTube victory over the Blue Jays. I did because it means the Yankees put another game between them and Toronto.  Yep the Yankees are surging - let's see what else is going on in the majors in the month since the All-Star break because god knows the Nats aren't that interesting. 

AL East

The big story is in the middle of the division where the red-hot Yankees (22-8 in last 30) have passed the fumbling Red Sox (7-14 in last 21). But the biggest story might lie elsewhere. No certainly not with the Blue Jays who haven't been able to keep pace with New York and have fallen further out of the playoffs. And not even with the Rays who have continued to roll and have a solid lead and the best non NL-West record in the majors. No the biggest story might be the Orioles who not only are 0-13 in their last 13 games but are being crushed daily, being outscored 36-123 over this stretch.  

You read that right. 

AL Central

Nothing? I mean the White Sox have basically played .500 ball since the ASB but Cleveland hasn't managed that and Chicago has all but taken the division. Detroit has played some good ball and has some interesting pitchers and will probably find themselves #2 at some point. 

AL West 

The third best division in baseball? Probably so. Both Oakland and Seattle keep winning and have made up some ground on Houston, but the Astros had a big lead and haven't played all that bad themselves. The Mariners are a surprise but a 25-14 in one run game surprise not a team is actually good one. The Angels tread water as usual and the Rangers started 0-10 out the blocks and have been 7-22 in the second half. Tough division to suck in. See the Orioles. 

NL East 

You know this! The Nats traded off and collapsed. The Mets didn't trade off and also collapsed! The Phillies passed them first but have had a rough week and so the Braves who did a long W-L pattern for 16 games broke out of that by finally winning and they sit with a nice little lead. The Marlins who right before the break did some weird thing trading huge wins with lots of close losses and made themsevles look good run differential wise aren't that good and are back to showing that in a conventional way. 

NL Central 

The Cubs collapse has overshadowed the Brewers surge 20-8 since the break. After a brief stumble the Reds have played well 14-7 and are challenging for a Wild Card. The Cards are trying as well and are back in the WC race though with work to do. The Pirates? You know. 

NL West

The Giants continue their magical season that will almost certainly be reversed next year. The Dodgers lost some ground but since the trades are 12-3 and are trying to chip away. The Padres? They have been under .500 since the break and 9-13 in the last 22 letting other teams crawl back into the WC2 hunt. Cincy is only 1.5 games out, Philly and St. Louis 4. The Rockies are bad and the D-backs are terrible though not as amazingly so anymore.

 

What to watch? 

After the last Sox/Yanks game tonight, Oakland / White Sox is the best match-up on paper though Chicago doesn't have much to play for. Mets / Giants is interesting to see if the Mets can keep losing, Giants winning. This weekend brings the Mets to LA to continue that. In good team match-ups San Fran takes on Oakland, while the White Sox play the Rays.  In a match-up that will probably decide if anything is actually there the Mariners face the Astros. And the one head to head over the same spot one the Padres and Phillies play.  

Enjoy some good baseball this weekend! Just not the Nats who will likely be steamrolled in Milwuakee