Trevor Williams?

 There’s still time but this offseason is definitely shaping up to be “what can we do cheaply in the next year or two, while we continue to evaluate the kids”

There’s ways this is ok.  Like if it’s a pre-cursor to long term deals for the kids followed up by big contracts in the next couple of off-seasons. But for a squad that looked primed to take a big step forward in 2025 this “it’s in the baseball gods hands now” approach is disappointing.  Especially in a very competitive NL East where a GOOD team might end up under .500

Josh Bell? Uhh... ok?

Bell is back! 

Quick thoughts - uh oh. 

This means to me the Nats aren't serious about making the playoffs next year which really I think they should be.  They could surprise me with a big FA starter and some solid relief pick-ups but this really seems like the end of the batting pick-ups and I can't see thing being enough to make the line-up good.  It can be, the kids can do things, but you can't expect it to be better than average and that's a stretch. 

Bell is average and getting worse. All the fancy stats are in decline and he's at the age where that can happen. If the Nats get an average season from him they should feel happy. Better bet is he's worse this year and the Nats DH woes continue. 

More tomorrow

Perfectly good player incoming!

The Nats traded Robert Garcia for Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. It's a solid, if unspectacular move that makes the Nats better, without giving up too much or costing them a lot of money leaving them the ability to do other things to help the team. 

The good is pretty obvious.  Lowe hits around .260+ walks about 75 times and hits about 17 homers.  That's good enough for a 110+ OPS+ which is good enough for Top 10-15 offense in the MLB (1st base has taken quite a dip).  Pair this with a Top 5ish defense at the position and you have one of the better first baseman in the league.  In a sense in production he replaces what Jesse Winker would have done for the team if he stayed for the full season, though in a wildly different way, maybe even a little better. 

What's the downside? On the Lowe side not much.  You could definitely argue that what the Nats were really lacking was power and that's the one thing Lowe doesn't bring. This is something that Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, both signed for about the cost of Lowe, have. He also had his worst power year of his career last year. Is he on the downslide? It's one thing to hit 17 homers.  It's another to hit 12. 

You can also look at last year and see it's not just luck, pretty much ALL his fancy stats like hard-hit%, barrels, even things related to his patience like chase % went down.  If this is the start of a decline he doesn't have too far to fall before he's below average at the plate. And if it was an aberration. one could say the ceiling on Lowe is about as "low" as it could be. He's just good. That's it. 

But back to good, Lowe will turn 30 next year so while he could crash next year, you'd be better betting on that from Santana or Goldschmidt. And while Walker isn't OLD (sorry Anonymous commenter) he is old and a better bet to crash thought not to the level of the guys nearing 40. 

What about Robert Garcia?  I think people are underrating the impact of this move.  It's not that Robert Garcia was great. He was a the kind of pitcher that could be special. A lot of Ks, very few homers, and solid against all sides of the plate. But he walked just a few too many and gave up just a couple too many hits and had a bit too much bad luck to be more than good. Can he get to special? Probably! but at 29 next year you generally don't feel bad betting on things just continuing on as is.  

No the problem isn't Garcia, the problem is the Nats.  Robert Garcia was one of only TWO pitchers that the Nats have in the pen that seemed likely to be good. (Derek Law being the other) Right now the Nats pen is a huge gaping hole and when they are currently relying on a lot of young inexperienced arms and only brought in oft-injured arm to help this spells trouble.  

But lucky they have a bunch of money left to help solve this problem! 

Soroka was a good move IF they did other things to the rotation.  Lowe is just a good move. It's not game changing but it's the type of move that makes sense no matter what the Nats do the rest of the off-season.  Hopefully this isn't all they do of course.  

Walker, Houston Astro

 Christian Walker is not a Nat. He's an Astro.  3/60.  It's a bit of an overpay by year but the idea of getting out of the contract in 3 years for a player his age is appealing.  Better this than a 4/64 or 5/65, imo. 

With Walker out that leaves three 1B that would likely next year be an obvious upgrade.  Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. The latter two are older so a 1-2 year deal might be possible. I prefer Santana - a slick fielder and more likely to take the shorter deal.  There are other middling 1B (Conor Joe! Justin Turner!) but rather than that I'd have them sign like Joc Pederson to DH or something

 Time keeps moving on.

The Nats sign... not an ace

Michael J Soroka... wait a second... Hey it is J! Well actually J G, Michael John Graydon Soroka. 

One year / 9 million 

Soroka was a top prospect as a minor leaguer and lived up to the hype in his first full season. His 2.68 ERA was a bit of a mirage but a 21 year old throwing to a 3.25-3.50 ERA? In 2019? That's great and it nearly won him the Rookie of the Year. 

But here's the problem.  In his rookie year he started 29 games and threw 174 innings. In the next FIVE years he's started 18 and has thrown 126. That would be a worrying number if we were talking his average year. We're not. We're talking combined. And they haven't been good. 

Now we'll flip back to the good. He DID get better last year. More innings, fewer hits, fewer homers, more Ks. It wasn't close to a full season but it's the right trend coming off a two year injury hiatus

Flip. But one thing did get worse - his walk rate. It jumped to 5.0 BB/9!

Flip.  The Nats starting pitching surprised in 2024 by not walking anyone and not giving up homers. The hits came bc they didn't strike anyone out but with few people on base and the ball staying in the park the opponent had to string together hits and the runs were harder to come by. This is EXACTLY the type of pitcher Mike Soroka was when he was good. 

Flip. While he got better giving up homers last year, he still gave up a good number of them and he gives up a lot more fly balls now. If he is a flyable pitcher now there's only so much one can do with that. See Josiah Gray. 

Soroka is a gamble. Do the Nats need a gamble? I don't know.  Certainly not as the best arm they sign or even the second best but after that? Sure! Gambles are fun!  If it's a secondary move hitting one usually helps a lot more than missing one hurts. But is this a secondary move?  We can't answer that yet. 

If Soroka is not one of the best 2 SP brought in this off-season then I think this is an ok deal.  Not great.  Seems pretty expensive compared to the likely results. But ok. He was a Nats type of pitcher before getting hurt.  He's vaguely returning to some sort of form. Maybe you get lucky 

If Soroka IS one of the best 2 SP Brough in this off-season than this simply isn't enough.  It's a gamble then not only on Soroka but that everyone else in the rotation doesn't need more help. I don't like that gamble. If you are ready, you shouldn't need good breaks to get you winning, but bad breaks to get you losing.

Monday Quickie - Zipping to 4th

The 2025 ZiPS projections are out from fangraphs and while not something you should bet the house on (no projections are like that imo) it gives an idea of where the Nats are TODAY. And where they are is not very good! 

This shouldn't be surprising. They lost their best starting pitching (even abbreviated Trevor Williams was great enough to take this crown), their best pure hitter (Jesse Winker) and their likely best reliever Dylan Floro (Derek Law has an argument if you are the type that wants to argue).  They also dropped their 3rd best reliever (Finnegan) and a useful bat (Lane Thomas).  And in their place they've brought in... 

<insert cricket sounds> 

All that suggests a pretty stable team performance after a 71 win season, with the losses here balanced out by the losses of some really bad crap (Corbin, Rosario, Senzel, sadly Joey Meneses) and the improvement from the ton of younger players on the team.  They were the youngest team at the plate last year and younger than average on the mound and should drop down more. 

73 wins? 75? 

But this is telling us what we already know. The Nats need to get FA (or trade) help to make the playoffs more than a far outside possibility in 2025. The Nats have a month before "it's getting late early" but this is the story for the team right now. They need help. Will they get help?  Expect it repeated ad naseum until they give us something new to talk about by actually signing someone or it gets so late the talk changes to "what are they doing?"

Offseason Position Discussion : Starting Pitcher

The Nats starting pitching in 2024 was like the half-full half-empty glass of water. 

On one hand the Nats got an incredibly productive 13 starts from Trevor Williams, had no major injuries after April, and watched as three separate young pitchers in Jake Irvin (well... youngish), Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all showed a level of surprising competence. And it was the last year of Patrick Corbin! 

On the other hand, the last year of Patrick Corbin is still a year of Patrick Corbin. The injury they did have knocked Josiah Gray out for the year, a player they were hoping would make a huge step forward this year. The other huge step forward was desired from MacKenzie Gore, who showed some flashes but was mostly just ok. 

I think most people though, would end up looking at it half-full.  No they didn't find an ace but the Nats are probably happy in general with where they ended up. A rotation with 4 guys in their 20s pitching like 3/4s. 

 That's also not a playoff winning rotation, not unless these guys get better, someone steps up, someone gets signed, or the offense takes off. But that's a lot of options!

Presumed Plan : 

The rotation will feature MacKenizie Gore and three of Irvin, Parker, Herz, Gray, Cavalli with a FA signing in the 1 or 2 slot.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats have money to spend. But the Nats also have kids almost everywhere to evaluate.  So the spending is going to be concentrated on a few spots.

The rotation is no exception to having kids to evaluate. However when it comes to pitching "never enough" is a good mantra, and looking at the talent level of these guys, outside of Gore or maybe Herz if you squint, the chances of any of these guys being considered ace or near-ace is slim. 

So you sign someone you like to be a 1/2 and then you see what happens with the rest of them. Depending on that and who you sign and how they do, 2026's FA goals become clearer.

My Take :  

Yes, do this. Honestly they could sign two starters and I'd be happy with it. 

I don't like relying on non-prospect kids who are probably ok but could flame out and leave the Nats in real trouble. And yes "ok" is the best way to describe them. As solid as these guys seemingly were the Nats rotation was actually pretty mediocre overall. Alot of that was Corbin but take him out and replace him with a guy like the other 4 and you don't get that much better.  Hitting was down last year (NL OPS dropped from .740 to .719) so what appeared to be good season were just average. 

Not that you are angry with a 24 year old average pitcher but you don't want a rotation that's 5 of these.

They need a reliable ace-type and Corbin Burnes fits the bill. Plus replacing a bad Corbin with a good one would make me happy.  He's been consistently really good. The declining K rate is a bit of a concern but it came along with solid control keeping him a very good pitcher, if not great. Get him. 

Failing that there isn't a great pitcher unless you want to bet on Verlander (I don't). With potential still out there are Jack Flaherty (has hit 30 starts once in his career with mixed results after looking like a star. Was very good last year), then Kyle Gibson/Charlie Morton (steady, reliable, too old for more than a couple year contract though), then guys like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea who aren't really 1/2s. That's kind of why I want Burnes who seems to be as sure a thing as you can get.  There are some potential 1/2s next year (Cease, Gallen, Framber) but you can't rely on them getting to FA.

One last intriguing option is Patrick Sandoval. This is a guy who when he's right looks like a 1/2 but is coming off of Tommy John and will miss most of 2025.  He's a signing for the future and a gamble which makes him sort of fit with the Nats, who could then just evaluate everyone to start the year. And if you wanted to sneak a deal this may be a place to look. Of course this suggests punting 2025 for a playoff run.

 

Other notes

The Nats have been noted in interest for Gleyber Torres. As a Yankees fan I can say he's perfectly ok overall but has some real bad stretches at the plate and more importantly with concentration. Not a bad guy at all, but that makes him seems like a bad fit for the Nats who can obsess over that type of thing.

They picked up a relief Rule V arm in Evan Reifert. Looked real good in 40 innings of AA ball. Great stuff, but wild. They also lost Matt Cronin in the minor league portion. He looked like a guy set for the majors before getting hurt in 2023. Wouldn't surprise me if he became productive.

The Nats won the draft lottery. Early indications overall is that it's better than the weak 2024 class but mostly bc of high schoolers as opposed to college players who might be ready sooner and fit better in the Nats window. Still when you have the #1 pick all you care about is how the best guy is doing.

Soto to Mets

A bit slow on this - 15/765, signing bonuses, opt outs 

My general thinking is 

1) This stinks for me. I wanted him on the Yankees. I do view their offer as a reasonable effort and imagine Cohen was true to his word on not being outbid. I wouldn't be surprised if the bidding began in the low 600s and escalated to the point it ended at.  The Red Sox bowing out at 700 mill and the Yankees at their number. 

Ok so now use that money for a bunch of other things. The bottom of the lineup can't be Oswaldo, DJ, and Trent Grisham

2) This stinks for Nats fans.  Soto signing anywhere else would be bad but signing for another NL East team where you see them more times a year than any other player? And they are competing directly against you for titles? Ugh. 

What's worse on some level is not that the Nats didn't get Soto, as we talked about before. The Nats aren't a 15/765 team and that's fine! Like 2-4 teams are and guess what? More than 2-4 teams make the playoffs and they can also win the Series. But what's worse is that the Nats never looked in it.  They should be a 15/600 team and just hearing their name early on, even if it wasn't going to happen would have shown a level of seriousness in this window we haven't seen yet. 

3) Not sure what this means for Soto. Cohen has completely committed to spending money but also that hasn't quite resulted in a new dynasty forming. The Mets over the past 4 years have been underwhelming and face quite of level of competition with the young controlled Braves, the star driven Phillies, and yes, the potential up and coming Nats. 

He'll be great.  He'll get paid. If he wants to win... I think there were better places (and I'm not necessarily saying the Yankees). But you know what? Winning isn't guaranteed. Getting paid is.  So get paid. 

OK Nats.  Let's move forward now. Onward and upward. The bar has been raised for the NL East. Rizzo has some work to do/

Too early to worry

The Nats don't look to be in on Soto. 

That may disappoint but it shouldn't be a surprise given that he's going to push 700 million total and 60 per year.  Soto is for teams that are fine being Top 3 payroll letting money cover up their mistakes. That's not the Nats and it never has been the Nats. 

But that doesn't mean they won't spend. 

Now could it inflate the salaries of everyone to the point where the Nats are too gun shy over any single one? I suppose but we're talking conjecture here. Right now what we know is this : 

• The Nats have a fair amount of money to spend.  Depending on what they want to do that could be 50 to 100+ million*. That's a lot! 
• The Nats have shown in the past they will spend and be a Top 10-Top 5 ish payroll in the league if not out and out compete with the big boys. 
• The Nats have made hints that they will be more aggressive in FA this off-season
• The Winter Meetings haven't taken place yet. We're still very early in the process. 

 I still have high-ish expectations, with the issues being more about the talent on the FA market than the Nats willingness. You can get worried in a normal FA period when we get later in January, but not early in December. 

 *ok if they want to do nothing it could be 0 million but no one thinks that's the case

Offseason Position Discussion : Other OF

The Nats OF was not an issue last year.  It wasn't necessarily "good" but it was a relative strength while being the centerpiece for the plans for the future. It featured a mix of players outside of Wood and later Crews who we talked about last time. Winker (good!), Eddie Rosario (very bad!), and Alex Call (very good but much fewer PA) all started a decent number of games in the OF but the guys with the most time were Lane Thomas and Jacob Young.  Thomas hit well enough to keep himself a trade target and got sent away at the trade deadline.  Young fielded like a beast and hit well enough to keep the job. 

The question for 2025 is who joins Crews and Wood in the Nats OF of the future... of today

Presumed Plan : 

Jacob Young will start in CF

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

We talked about it in the comments a while back but Jacob Young played like possibly the best CF in baseball last year.  Wood needs defensive help and you don't want to rely on Crews, still learning the position at the major league level, to have to give it to him. 

While Alex Call has some history at being a very good fielder and shone with the bat for a month last year, he also has a unreliable history at the plate and more importantly is five years older than Jacob Young. If you are going to bet on someone for the future, which it seems like the Nats would do, it would be Young. 

They could also bring in a bat here but given the needs at 1B/DH and maybe 3B if they want to slow walk House or shake up the IF, letting the OF play out like this makes sense for a year. If Young doesn't come through then there's a target for improvement before 2026 which presumably will be the year they really try to make a playoff push.

My Take :  

This seems simple. Young, at 25 next year, deserves a shot to see if he can hit around average. If he fields like he did last year, that basically sets the Nats OF for the next half-decade (unless they want to move Wood).   

Also if Young doesn't hit he will at least give coverage to Wood, who has shown he may need it, while they find a solution in his place.  Having your worst hitter be a slick fielding CF is not a bad thing.

As for the alternatives. Long time readers know I'm not a fan of Alex Call. While I can't deny he can field and was impressed with his stint last year, it just doesn't makesense to gamble on a guy who hit poorly when given a real chance in 2023 and is going to be an old 30 next season. Personally I'd try to use his 2024 push to get something back and wish him well elsewhere. 

I'd use Stone Garrett who's been a fairly consistent solid OF in his limited chances, to be the 4th OF and possible replacement for Young if he struggles or Crews if he struggles hard.

The minors don't really have anyone else knocking at the door.  Hassell is now in "trying to get back to form" mode having passed the "recovering from injury" time frame. Daylen Lile did fine in AA but nothing that suggests he'll be forcing anything in 2025. I guess since the rest of the media does it here is an obligatory Elijah Green reference bc he was drafted high and had that one good month.

It doesn't seem hard. Let it play out with the guys you ended the season with. Fix things elsewhere. Hope it works out.

Offseason Position Discussion : 2/3rds of the OF

The Nats have two of the most highly touted OF prospects in their system. 

James Wood, received in the Soto trade, blossomed through the minors nearly exactly as one would hope culminating in a .353 / .463 / .595 line over 52 games in AAA last year.  He deservedly got the call up earlier in 2024 and while he wasn't an immediate phenom he acquitted himself very nicely finishing the year with a .264 / .354 / .427 line. On a per game basis he was the 2nd best bat for the Nationals*. We must note he did have issues in the field, but not to the levels the Nats are already looking to move him. 

Dylan Crews, drafted #2 overall in 2023, didn't impress like Wood.  He rocked single A for a couple weeks, but initially struggled in AA, improved enough to get a call up to AAA then hit decently there. He got the usual rookie September call-up and looked like a rookie, but at least to start 2025 he should be playing in the OF. His defense looked good, if not the amazing defense promised, and he ran well as a bonus.

Presumed Plan : 

Wood will start in left field.  Crews will start in CF or RF depending.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Wood looked like a major league hitter already. He makes a lot of good hard contact. He runs well as seen on the basepaths so the assumption is he can learn to play a better LF where his instincts looked off. Certainly at 22 you don't want to already resign yourselves to playing him at 1B/DH 

Crews looked like a major league fielder and baserunner, but of course a lot of guys do.  His hitting was a little disappointing, as it has been in the minors, but he'll only be 23 next year and he's just a couple years out of college. It would be nice to give him a little more time in the minors but the Nats really want to see what they can do sooner rather than later, so they aren't waiting on the perfect moment. Crews CAN go now, so he's taking his shot in 2025. 

My Take :  

Wood has basically already proven himself. The question is not really if he will hit in the majors but how well will he hit and at what position will he do it from.  The Nats would rather he play the OF than try to learn 1B or be forced to stick him at DH so he'll get his chances there probably for several years. His skill set suggests he should be good, but I'll remind everyone that said something similar about Juan Soto (though he's not nearly as athletic) that Soto didn't improve much. Chances of Wood being a good fielder are getting slim. The good news is that he doesn't have to be. If he can be average his youth will let him hold down the position for a long while AND the Nats have some very good fielding OFs. If they go something like Young / Crews in the other positions, Wood will be asked to do less. 

As far as the bat goes - he has the power. He just has to get under the ball more. He hit 55% GBs last year which is fine if you are a slap hitter. Wood's legs and just how hard he hits the balls means a lot of hits from those but everyone is hoping he turns more of those singles into doubles and doubles into homers. He does strike out a lot but that's modern baseball. That's something to keep an eye on this year. If teams can exploit that, but it's something to note, not worry about. 

Crews is a bit more of a question. The guy can play CF and can run and so he's got inherent value beyond the plate. That was good in 2024 because he didn't hit very well. Given his brief minor league history you have to wonder if he is going to be special or not. It should be fine if he isn't, but the Nats (and fans) were clearly hoping for special. Of course there is still time for that and some of his peripherals suggest the great hitter is in there.  His contact and eye are both good and he also could hit a lot fewer GBs (56%) which would translate into more power... probably. Crews didn't barrel the ball as you'd like and we're going on a year and a half of "where's the pop" 

It sounds like I'm down but I'm not. Crews is a highly touted prospect developing on a normal pace. He might be great still. He might also still miss, though not in a "terrible never make the majors" sort of way. That the Nats are looking at him in 2025 and it's only a little bit of a stretch is good. He only looks bad in comparison with guys like Wood and Langford, who make it look easy. Compared to most other drafted hitters he's well ahead. That's why he's a highly touted prospect.

I'm not exactly sure why he had to come up when he did. But if their plan is to get a full picture of the state of the team by the end of 2025, I can see it. You'd want Crews to play a bulk of 2025 in the majors. Might as well let him get his feet wet first. And what's the alternative? Another 1 year FA to try to flip?  Garrett and Young and see what happens? Eh.  I can't really complain here.

 Tomorrow starts today. The Nats future is now.

 

*Behind Jesse Winker

Offseason Position Discussion : Third Base

If you are inclined to be angry at the Nats for bad decisions, third base in 2024 provoked you to a near fury.  The Nats went into the season with a two prong strategy (note that this is the perfect number of prongs to stick in a socket and electrocute yourself), third base would be split between "never prospect" Trey Lipscomb based off a minor amount of competence shown in AA with just a bit of surprising pop, and "crashed and burned" former 2nd pick in the draft Nick Senzel who had been given a solid chance by the Reds and hadn't progressed past "bad".

Guess what? This didn't work. In August and September Jose Tena took the position and hit pretty well.  He fielded like crap but based on all reports on him that was an anomaly.  It ended up a real black hole for the Nats after just last year being a pleasant surprise with Jeimer Candelario.

The idea though is that this was a bridge year to the Brady House plan that takes place at some point in 2025. At the end of July that looked like Opening Day but Brady House hit .228 / .261 / .339 the rest of the way making that look unlikely.

Are you ready for another season of the Nats punting?

Presumed Plan : 

Tena holding the position until House is ready.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

With Vargas now gone, Tena should be the super-sub but he's the only one on the team who played 3B last year. That makes him the leader in the clubhouse. As DH/1B are noted issues without an hopeful solution in the minors coming up soon, they deserve more of the FA look.  Tena wasn't bad at the plate and should field so you play him and hope either he comes through or Brady House starts like a House on fire, or both and things just work out. 

They will need to find a back up though. Do they carry Trey Lipscomb for that? Just stick with Andres Chaparro who is a subpar defender? I'm not sure they know and they might be looking for FA to find the answer for them.

My Take : 

This could be trouble.  They really didn't want to be in punt mode again in 2025 but Brady House didn't push through enough to make you want to bring him up and neither of their low-rent fixes surprised. They are now stuck with a minor mid-season trade surprise to try to keep up what he did in 2024 while getting back on track with the glove. This has all the makings of another year of this position being one of the worst in the majors. 

But I don't know what you do since all expectations are that House will be given the chance to take over the position at some point. You either go all in on a solution or you hope like a Jose Iglesias or Donovan Solano falls into your lap for a couple million. Sure those guys might fail to hit againbut it's worth a few million to see. 

There IS an all in solution in Alex Bregman who will demand and get a big long salary as the best option at the position by a good margin. The Nats could do that then let 1B/DH figure itself out and worry about where House goes later - or maybe even trade him off. I don't think that's where I want the Nats to land even if he is the #2 position player available. He's just not the gamechanger the Nats need, imo. This offense doesn't need solid - which is what he is now

Offseason Position Discussion : Shortstop

Shortstop was a wild ride for the Nats in 2024. CJ Abrams started hot, cooled down, then got even hotter.  Halfway through the season he was hitting .286 with 13 homers and 5 triples and he was named an All-Star.  But he cooled down a lot heading into the game and stayed ice cold through August. He was picking things back up in September when he was seen at a casino very late at night and put up a bad game the following day. 

*WARNING I AM GOING TO ASSUME SOME THINGS ABOUT WHAT THE TEAM WAS THINKING HERE*

Rizzo, seeing this as an embarrassment to the team, used it as another teaching lesson and sent Abrams down the rest of the year. 

Overall the position was neutral for the Nats. Abrams did end up hitting well for the season as a whole, his wild positive swings outweighing his wild negative ones. However he still isn't a great shortstop in the field and that truth, at a position where that might matter most, holds his value down. Still "neutral" might have been the best position all season for the Nats, such is where their offense stood in 2024. 

Presumed Plan : 

CJ Abrams with someone backing him up.  Nunez? Tena?

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The good outweighed the bad. 

The position isn't a problem.

To do something with Abrams now that isn't just "let him play and try to figure it out" seems like unnecessarily causing yourself an problem that doesn't currently exist. 

The Nats have other options. Jose Tena was surprisingly good at the plate in a short audition with the team. Nunez looks like he could be a Gold Glover at the position. Brady House looks ready to move to the majors. But at 24, a former top prospect and an All-Star just last year, I can't think of a good reason to abandon the plan that had Abrams as a long term answer somewhere in the Nats infield. 

As for who backs him up... depends on what the Nats value I guess. It seems they didn't want to go with "steady D, poor bat, good veteran presence" which is what Vargas supplied. So it'll be a choice likely between Tena, Nunez, and House, likely in that order as House is more likely up to play 3B full-time, and Nunez is likely in AAA to work on hitting.

My Take :  

Yes, when Abrams is bad he's real bad. In 77 games in May, July and August he hit something like .190 / .255 / .300 with 7 homers.  With subpar defense you are looking at one of the worst players in baseball.

But the possibilities of Abrams are intoxicating. A guy that can hold down SS hitting .300 with power and speed? There's a reason he was a top prospect and over 48 games in April and June he hit something like .330 / .420 / .640 with 11 home runs. 

At 24 it's reasonable to think he can improve a bit, and even if he just settles the high and lows into a 110-120 OPS+ guy that can field SS and provide some excitement on the basepaths and little pop? That's a solid player that solves a tricky position through 2028. 

I do worry that Abrams got on the team's bad side and will go through a Robles like trial of having to prove himself above and beyond what other players have to do. Or worse, they are ready to deal him out for SP help hoping that the mix of other guys internally available will fill the gap. But we don't know that yet and we can't worry about something that might happen. 

Abrams is the SS. He has potential to be great. He should be good overall. Let's just let it play its course in 2025.

Monday Quickie - Walker talk

MLB trade rumors and Mark Zuckerman both have the Nats in the Christian Walker sweepstakes or at least have the idea that the Nats should be in the Walker sweepstakes. You know I agree. Rizzo has already said basically "don't expect anything before the Winter Meetings are done" but things are fluid.  Such is FA baseball time. 

The other "Nats should do this" floated out there was picking up Anthony Santander. Mainly because he has power and the Nats lack power. 

There seems to be some sense that the SP market will be tough this year so that'll be interesting for the Nats, who really should grab someone. 

OK position stuff continues tomorrow

 

No Vargas?

Vargas (and Joey Meneses) hit the FA market.  I am surprised for all the reasons I noted below. 

It's seems pretty good they are moving on.  Likely this means they see Jose Tena as the future utility man as he is a lot younger and has the potential to hit a bit better.  His defense is right now probably comparable to Vargas which actually shows well for Vargas who is 8-9 years older.  I'd expect that he would be worse in his late 20s but that's half a decade away. In the meantime there's really no downside unless you think Vargas' clubhouse presence will be missed a lot.  Joey was also kind of liked from what I could tell so we'll see. Winning makes guys feel a lot better about the clubhouse without clubhouse guys needed. 

Monday Quickie - FA season has begun

Lot's of opt-outs, options declined, etc. Let's go!

For the Nats the main thing that happened was they declined their Joey Gallo option. That was the only option on the table for 2025 and his performances was bad in the off-year Gallo way, which is to say OMG TERRIBLE HIDE YOUR EYES so this is no surprise.  We wish Joey well on whatever team picks him up for peanuts and hops that they can squeeze one last good year out of him

The Nats really don't have to do any funny business now. They have enough 40 man spots open to eat up the IL players that need to be back on. They of course, won't all be on the 40 man at the start of the season but for now they go back on and they'll drip back to the minors as the off-season progresses. Mason Thompson, Cade Cavalli, and Nasim Nunez are easy return to the minors choices as you have to think they start the season there.

It's all looking forward, except for maybe Rule V.  They have to protect Hassell this year which you would expect them to do.

In general the Nats have not been early movers and things don't get going until after the Winter Meetings (Dallas Dec 8-11) so as interested as we are it'll likely be a waiting game until then.   But if you are interested some of the bigger pre-Winter Meetings moves the Nats have made in the Rizzo time frame

• pre-2013 : Traded Alex Meyer for Denard Span. 
• pre-2019 : Ill-fated Trevor Rosenthal signing, not ill-fated Kurt Suzuki signing, Trading for Yan Gomes, Signing Patrick Corbin
• pre-2023 : picked up Jeimer Candelario

 

Funny that their WS year was the only year filled with early moves. 

In other news, Jacob Young did NOT win the Gold Glove he probably deserved (but the winner wasn't a chump) 

Offseason Position Discussion : Second Base

Garcia opened 2024 in a precarious position. After taking a mild step forward in 2022, he did not have a good 2023 at the plate. Toward the end of that year the Nats, as they are wont to do, singled Garcia out as a player to make an example of and unexpectedly dropped him to the minors. If you are thinking I'm misjudging the situation and he deserved it as part of a larger issue with concentration - the idea of him being "sloppy" or "making too many mistakes" just isn't backed up by the data. Don't feel bad, even I bought into some of the spin they were putting out. Turns out though he made real improvements from 2022 to 2023 both on defense and on the basepaths. No, this was a guy simply not hitting who the Nats wanted to hold up as a warning sign to young players. This is what they do.

He did not hit in AAA or at first when brought back up but perhaps the Nats ploy did work in the end because Garcia hit great in the last two weeks of 2023 and better than he ever has in 2024. This includes a scorching July and August where he hit .like .340 with 8 homers. I think most importantly though the Nats didn't try to make him more selective and let him hit. Walk-rate down, K-rate up but a LOT better hitter. His defense continued to improve and he had another solid year baserunning. In no aspects was he great but he was good all around from the start of the season and secured the position for himself for 2025.

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia Jr will man 2B with Vargas backing him up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

After C, 1B, and DH you might think the Nats are in big trouble, but really that's was just a bad starting point for the team. They have several things set pretty well for 2025 and second base is one of them. Garcia Jr isn't one of the best second baseman in the game but he might squeak into the Top 10 and he's most certainly not a problem. We talked about it a little in the start of the off-season. He hit the ball a lot better. At 24 he can still improve so this is a no-brainer. 

The Vargas back-up call is about flexibility. Vargas not only played 2B and 3B but SS and OF when needed. That kind of positional flexibility is very nice to have.

My Take : 

Not much here. Garcia has solidified himself at 2B. It's possible he has an off-year again and the Nats sour on him. They do seem to focus on players in this way. But Garcia has generally looked ok enough that you shouldn't consider him a problem. Last year there was a question if someone would push him from the minors, either Lipscomb/Kieboom straight up or a shifted House. The first two didn't push and House didn't shift. With no one pushing him from the minors he's set. I don't think there will be any disagreement from the rabble.

Vargas is a nice defender.  Best at third but being able to fill in late on D at even SS is a boon for a team who have a bunch of guys that look like they should be good on D but aren't. Plus by all accounts he's a great clubhouse guy. Shame he can't hit at all, but at least he does make contact. Weak, weak contact, but contact.  In terms of issues, "utility infielder could hit better" might rank last on things to fix so while it could become a drag if the Nats suffer any long term injury problems, for right now Vargas makes sense. Worry about fixing this if you are making a title push and want no holes.

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts.  DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day. 

They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that.  However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit. 

Yikes.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B.  Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract. 

Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.

They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first.  The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.

My Take :  

Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both.  Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least. 

But Soto is expensive. 

I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy.  You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.

But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period. 

It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.

*Amazingly only 26th in baseball. 

** I mean they got to right?

Where's your pride?

The Yankees won last night (yay!) and oddly enough it was the first time since 1970 a G4 was won by the team down 0-3.  In fact of the 24 times before this year a team has been up 3 games to none, 21 times it ended in a sweep and the other 3 ended in Game 5.  That's pretty crazy when you think about it.These teams are presumably evenly matched. Even if you say "well 3-0 means they aren't evenly matched smart guy!" and you say one team has a 40% chance of winning a game* you'd expect 9-10 Game 5s instead of the three we've seen, around 4 G6s, and 1-2 G7s.  

Now of course teams will lose G4 for the same reasons they could win it, but if you are having 21 teams crash out instead of say 13 some of those teams are just giving up.  So let's see who.  This is my takes from the series I remember watching.

2012 Detroit Tigers. Fighters.  Lost G2 and G3 by 2-0 scores (yes a Bumgarner game was in there) and lost G4 in extra innings. 

2007 Rockies. Fighters in this game only. They put up their best (only) effort of the series in G4 losing by 1 and twice scoring late after the Red Sox scored to expand their lead. 

2005 Astros. Fighters. The fightingist swept losers ever! In every game, would lose the series by a combined 6 runs in 4 games. G4 was 0-0 until the Top of the 8th

2004 Cardinals. Quitters. After being unable to take G1 with 9 runs the Cards packed it in for the series putting up little resistance to the Red Sox of Destiny despite winning 105 games themselves. G4 featured three singles and a lone double

1999 Braves. Quitters.  After being game in the series, Yankees took the wind out of their sails in G3 winning in extras on a Chad Curtis homer. Ouch. Smoltz would try bu the offense packed it in for G4. 

1998 Padres. Fighters. They almost won G1 and G3 holding leads late against maybe the best Yankee team of this stretch. Put 10 men on base in G4 but couldn't bring any home. 

1990 A's. Quitters. The dynasty that never was got beat up by Cincy in G1 and G3. G4 was close but only bc Dave Stewart wasn't going to get embarrassed again as he was in G1. He was great. The A's scored one run in the 1st but that was it for hits and after a 2 out walk in the second made 22 consecutive outs to end the game

1989 Giants. Fighters.  It wasn't to be at all but down 8-0 the Giants valiantly cut it to 8-6 going into the 8th.  It just was too little too late. 

 

From here it's stats only. 

1976 Yankees. Fighters. The Reds would win by 5 but that was bc of a 4 run top of the 9th. Yankees scored first and responded to the Reds scoring 3, just couldn't beat the Big Red Machine

 1966 Dodgers. Quitters in general but I guess fighters in G4. The Dodgers hitters hit .142 for the series with 1 homer. Sure pitching but you know my motto - teams don't win, they lose.  Anyway in the 9th with one out the Dodgers got their 4th single of the game and then drew their second walk but they couldn't bring the tying run home.

1963 Yankees. Fighters? Similar to the 1966 Dodgers, questionable effort during the series but in G4 fought, scoring in the 7th and putting a man on in the 7th after that, a man on in the 8th and 9th. 

1954 Indians Quitters. Mainly the pitcher Bob Lemon who didn't have it and the manager Al Lopez who let him hang out there until he lost it. 

1950 Phillies Quitters. The Whiz Kids. went down without a fight to the Yanks only scoring 2 runs in the top of the 9th thanks to a HBP and a flyball error. 

1939 Reds. Fighters. Teams were at 0-0 until the 7th then it went 2-0, 2-3, 2-4, 4-4.  But in extras the Yankees would score 3 and put it away. 

1938 Cubs Quitters. Hitters seemed game. Pitchers let them get a lead early and gave up runs every time the Cubs tried to mount a comeback. 

1932 Cubs Fighters. Down 1-0 after 1 Cubs made it 4-1 Then down 5-4 in the 6th Cubs tied it up. Yankees run roughshod after that to make in 13-6, but these are some prime Yankee teams. Yankes hit .313 / .412 / .521 as a team for the series

1928 Cardinals. Quitters I guess. This might be the most lop-sided series ever, a title usually taken by some 1960s series with dominant pitching.  The Yankees only trailed after 4 in G4 which they'd put away int he 7th. Won every game by at least 3. If the Cards quit it was starting in G1 not for just G4. 

1927 Pirates. Fighters. Murderer's Row would complete the sweep but not before the Pirates scored 2 in the 7th to tie the game at 3 all. Yanks would walk it off in a wild b9. After a walk and single and wild pitch, Pirates would intentially walk Babe Ruth. After Gerhig and Bob Meusel struck out with the bases loaded and no outs the winning run would come in on the second wild pitch of the inning. 

1922 Yankees. Fighters. Lost G1 and G4 by 1, Led G5 late.  Huh you say? G5?  They tied a game because of gate receipts... I mean darkness!

1914 Philadelphia Athletics. Quitters.  After scoring to tie it up in the 5th the Braves would take the lead right back and Philly wouldn't get another hit the rest of the game. 

1907 Tigers. Bad luck Fighters. Another series with a tie and Mordecai Three Finger Brown dealing for all 9.  Tigers put a man on in seven of nine innings. Got men into scoring position in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th but didn't get the hit to drive them in. 

 

*A ridiculously low % in baseball where the worst team in the league against everyone wins like 40% of the time, let alone a league champion.

Monday Quickie - Boone is dumb

I hate Aaron Boone. He's dumb in a modern sense - usually making the analytic choice when such things are figured out in a vacuum and games are managed in the real world. He's also dumb in a traditional sense - usually going for his gut against the traditional move but in a way that doesn't make sense. Sigh.

How was your weekend?

A few Nats are in the AFL.  Hassell is hitting ok so far through a couple weeks. 

uhhh

uhhh

real quiet out there.