Relivers left

The Nats need another relief arm (or two) and for a team that hasn't spent a lot of money it seems like an easy place to put some of that and make an impact. The Nats don't have a deep pen. They don't have a bunch of AA and AAA relief arms dying to get up. 

The major league signings recently have been relief focused so it's worth a perusal to see who's left.

VERY GOOD LAST YEAR

We're left with the old. David Robertson (40) and Kenley Jansen (37). Both these guys have been nothing short of great if you look at their careers, however lacking the save chances leaves Robertson as an afterthought to most fans compared to Jansen. But it also leaves him more affordable. At 40 he won't get more than a 1yr deal with an option. Current talk revolves around the Cubs. Jansen on the other hand will look for either real big money or a final secure contract and he's looking for a contender. So while the Nats have been floated out there he many not be as interested in coming here for a team that is still at least one year away. 

GOOD LAST YEAR

Danny Coulombe was right across the way in Baltimore finally putting it together and having that complete year his stats suggested was possible. Although it was really a complete HALF year due to injury. If you think he's healthy and able to repeat last year he could be a steal. The Yankees look close to picking him up.

Hey Dylan Floro! A consistent keep the ball in the park pitcher is not flashy but is definitely solid and proved it again in DC after an off 2023. There isn't a lot of talk so here's where I think the Nats could jump in. Excited yet?

Jakob Junis is a failed starter who moved into long relief for good in 2023. 2024 was better with him showing incredible control which helped keep his hits down. Doesn't K guys and gives up the occasional homer but if he's hitting his spots like 2024 he'd be a better Floro.

CLASSIC NATS TARGETS

Alas, the Nats in their "win later, maybe" mode are probably looking for guys like they brought in last year. Not old guys who weren't great in 2024 but that is probably a little fluke and they should pitch fine in 2025 and maybe they can flip them or keep them depending. Not STUFF guys either, more control and homer depressers. To that end :

Trevor Gott sits on the fringes of being a good reliever with the ability to keep homers and walks down... sometimes. He missed 2024 with injury so probably there on a minor league deal. 

Colin Poche is an unexciting Rays castoff who would be only 31 this year and in 2023 really held down homers. He walks a bit too much but his minor league numbers suggest the homer suppression can be kept up. 

Ryan Yarborough was a guy who lived off the fact he didn't walk many people so the hits and homers he gave up were less impactful. Last year was his first full time short reliever season and showed some promise.

Brent Honeywell Jr. can't strike out anyone but doesn't want to. His numbers last year and in the minors make you think he can keep the walks down and if he can then he would be actually good. Plus he is a record holder (most pitches in one World Series inning - 50) 

Pencil me in for Floro and Yarborough and Rizzo calling it a day.

Monday Quickie - quick divisional review

Sadly in baseball division mean less and less as they work to more "equal" schedules which are worse for players (travel), worse for the quality of baseball in general (travel and maybe a bit of juice lost), mostly neutral for home team fans (again juice lost - losing a bunch of games versus rivals to get a few games versus a team that might draw), but appease owners who want to make it as easy as possible to make the playoffs and don't like it when they are stuck in a tough division. 

Still you do play more games against your division so the quality of those teams do matter. That's been tough for the Nats as the Phillies, Braves and Mets have all been good recently and seem committed to winning right now. Has the off-season changed anything?

 Phillies

The Phillies most noticeably lost bullpen arms. Jeff Hoffman who developed into quite a good end of game arm the couple years they had him and Spencer Turnball who has been a good long reliver.  But they basically swapped the Blue Jays Jordan Romano for Hoffman. If Romero is healthy (he is coming back from surgery but looks good so far) it's close to a push as Romano is also very good.  And for Turnball they brought in old Nats favorite Joe Ross. Overall a slight downgrade on these but just slight. And the pen may be even less important for them in 2025 as they traded for Jesus Luzardo to fill out the rotation which should be an improvement over what they were running in the 5th spot last year, while waiting for top prospect Andrew Painter. 

Offensively they brought in Max Kepler to be one guy in the line-up who doesn't strike out like crazy. The offense was good though, didn't lose anything so unless age gets them (unlikely but possible) they should be good here again. 

Braves 

The Braves lost quite a few pieces. Jorge Soler, who they traded for, and did well for them. Dependable Travis d'Arnuad, disappointing Gio Urshela, and good reliever AJ Minter.  More importantly they let two arms go in Charlie Morton and Max Fried. They remain at least one arm short which is worrisome for a team that has seen their young arms continually get injured. 

The offense is more secure with Jurickson Profar replacing the fading Adam Duvall as good depth. It's a younger offense that didn't perform up to expectations last year, but still managed to be average. 

Mets

Cohen's Boys have been extremely active.,  They haven't technically lost much yet - just Luis Severino but only because so much of their 2025 roster remains unsigned starting with Pete Alonso. They seem to be letting go of good depth Harrison Bader, surprise hitter Jose Iglesias. Solid if old JD Martinez, rotation arm Jose Quintana, and relievers of various goodness Phil Maton, Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino. Whew

But they added JUAN SOTO and Clay Holmes to start maybe and AJ Minter and Frankie Montas and Jesse Winker and Jose Siri to replace Bader's late game D and some other depth pieces.  Whew again. 

For all that they still have rotation depth and relief questions. 

The Phillies should be about the same. Great starting pitching, great offense, and a bullpen that should be good enough to let them run at a mid 90s win total. 

The Braves are seemingly letting it ride with the younger bats turning it back on and carrying the team again. Acuna, Harris, Albies and Olson could (should?) all do a bit better and if they all do the offense takes a big turn positive, enough to probably cover the mishmash of hopes and dreams in the rotation behind Sale. There's real big variance here. 

The Mets should offensively smash teams, and they have enough pitching to hold ground on the mound though depth could bite them right now. It would be wise of them to complete the team with a SP and RP but with already tons of money in the team and possibly throwing money at Pete Alonso that could be it. It's a playoff team but some smart final moves could make it a WS favorite. 

 

Tough road for the Nats but there is an opening IF things falter for the Braves. If they don't the Nats will have a hard time getting within 10 games of any of these. There's always the Marlins! 

Nats sign a Starting Pitcher! (It's not who you think!)

The Nats signed... let me get this right Shinnosuke Ogasawara... for a two year deal. 

It's big old question mark move so I don't expect the money to be big. 

He doesn't strike out guys - which is a concern, but he doesn't walk guys either.  This seems like the type the Nats would like BUT the HR-rate concerns me.  While it seems low it's actually higher than average for Japan and has been his whole career. He did legitimately pitch great 2 years ago but he seems to be regressing out of that.

My immediate thinking is he won't really make an impact, but maybe if he can serve the Corbin "eat them innings" role for a rotation full of kids and injury risks. Maybe it's worth it. Of course the japan league has as shorter season than the majors so he hasn't come close to 200 innings or even 180. 

It's a signing in line with the "get a bunch of stuff that sort of looks interesting and maybe something works out" that feels like they are doing in this punt the season away 2025. At least they are consistent.

Been a while

The team gets the coverage they deserve.

NRI's out today 

Generally only RP kids will make the OD roster if the pieces fall into place (injuries, awesome spring, spots open) so maybe a Marquis Grissom Jr? 

The rest of the NRIs that are kids are for them getting a taste of major league talent and the guys upstairs to get a sense of how these guys fare against said talent before sending them back down. 

The NRIs that aren't kids have a chance to make it as last man in the bench types or just regular relief arms bc those are always in demand.  

This won't be the final list and there could (should) be some signings in Feb that have a much better chance of making the team a la Jesse Winker last year.

 

3 Nats in Top 101 prospects

BP put out it's list of the Top 100 + 1 prospects and three Nats made the list. 

Dylan Crews at #2

Jarlin Susana at #47

Travis Sykora at #59

 I feel like we went over it when Elijah Green was stuck at the bottom of some of the Top 100s but these type of lists are some measure of talent evaluation and some measure of "if we miss out on someone breaking out and someone else has them on their list we're going to look bad". So the trend to evaluate raw talent high over decent production is there. It's not overwhleming but expect that slightly bigger bets to be bumped up a bit while lower bets are downgraded. 

That's one way to not feel bad about who is NOT on the list. Brady House was kicked to the curb.  Does this mean he's no good anymore? No. It's sort of a bet that he's not going to bust out. That ship is sailing away.  I wouldn't say it's gone. He won't be 22 until mid next season. But the guys who know want to see something more. This is definitely not what a team punting 3B wants to see.

Crews at #2 is great to hear. It means the belief he won't bust out is as high as can be.  That is FAR from a given. Any look at previous lists will tell you that. But still teams need players who can contribute and Crews projects to be one.There shouldn't be a real hole in his game. The question is where the bat falls. That he's that high suggests they like the possibility of him of hitting above average and that would make him an overall great player with his defense and speed projections. 

Susana and Sykora are similar type of evaluations. They are young guys with killer stuff that have dominated low minor hitters. You want to put these guys on the list because if they make it to AA next year and dominate then they jump way up. So this is exactly where you want to see your young SP arms. It's still more likely both miss, but it's not that much more likely than one hitting and one hitting, if they can stay healthy, is huge. 

Three prospects on the list would be about in line with expectations. But I think this is a little better than just expected given Wood, another Top 10 guy, graduated to the majors and where these guys lie.  I like players in the top of the Top 10.  I like very young pitchers in that 50 range. This is much better than your top guy being a hitter around 10-15, then having a young toolsy OF around 60 and a older SP arm at 97.  It's a good set-up... for a team in 2026/2027/2028.    

 

Monday Quickie - Jorge Lopez and a general growing sense of discontent

 The Nats signed Jorge Lopez over the weekend to a 3 million dollar deal. It's fine. Simillar to deals in the past for the likes of Dylan Floro the Nats are picking up someone in his early 30s who had some success in the past hoping that they can recapture that. 

The gamble on Lopez is a little bit different than on Floro. Floro had an off year before signing with the Nats but had been good pretty much every year before that, and had good fancy stats in 2023.  You were making the solid bet that the fancy stats and history were right not the one year aberration in ERA.  Lopez, pitched pretty good last year, but has a limited history as a reliever that is a bit spotty with some bad fancy stats at times. You are making the slightly less solid bet that 2023 was the aberration and 2022 and 2024 were real. As I say - still solid as Lopez is a couple years younger and just had a pretty good year. 

Basically Jorge Lopez was Kyle Finnegan last year so this represents a lateral move there with significant cost savings. Good for Rizzo. 

But of course we've said Kyle Finnegan isn't really all that good.  Very consistently better than average but that's about it. So replacing him with him isn't making the pen that much better, it's just inching it back to where it was last year which was meh. 

It's a good move. It makes the Nats better than they were the day before. However unlike a move like Lowe, it's not making the Nats better than they were in October. We've said they are probably down to RP moves. They should be making the pen significantly better than last year. Something that can be done fairly cheaply with a bunch of pretty good but not great arms taking up every spot. If everything else is over in FA, let's do that at least.

A-mid Rosario.

Nats are signing Amed Rosario.  He has two uses. It's definitely NOT hitting. He can make contact but it's very weak and his ISO SLG always very low.

The first one is iffy.  He can play SS, 2B and presumably 3B.  But he has no instinct for fielding and tries to get by with his natural talent. A solid arm helps but at the IF positions a lack of instinct is hard to overcome. This is why he's seen more time in the OF as his career has gone on. Still very spotty though. 

What skill does he have then? The guy is very fast. He can run the bases and would be an excellent pinch runner. His speed helps turn a weak GB hitter like him into a .280 hitter. Well .280 is a stretch - that IF hit % that got him there last year seems like a fluke - but .265+ even nearing 30 and probably slowing a bit. He's an excellent pinch runner. 

Do the Nats need a pinch runner? Probably not or at least not more than a guy that can hit. Wood, Crews, Young, Abrams are all fast. Call, Nunez, and Tena all on the possible bench, are all fast. Seems like having a fast guy available shouldn't be a problem. 

I guess they do need a Vargas replacement. I guess Rosario basically that but replacing decent fielding with lightning fast speed. That doesn't seem like the replacement I would make but also how much will Rosario play? Probably not too much. And if you aren't playing then being a good hitter or a good runner is better than an ok fielder. I guess.

Monday Quickie - Have Nats fans been snowed?

Are you happy?

That's the question for Nats fans as they look at an off-season that right now stands as this : 

• Signed the rehabilitating Mike Soroka and the potential fluke Trevor Williams to shore up the rotation. 
• Traded for the perfectly good Nathaniel Lowe to play 1B
• Signed Josh Bell to DH. 

If I were to give an off-season evaluation RIGHT NOW (which matters only slightly more than an evaluation on November 1st) I'd say they tried to solve the first base issue, punted on the DH issue, and it looks like they've decided to run another year of kids in the rotation trying to evaluate what exactly they have. 

It's the off-season for a team on the path to contention (you don't trade for Lowe otherwise) but not looking to contend in 2025.  If it happens they'll take it, but this looks like a team aiming to break .500 not close in on 90 wins. This isn't just me but the general consensus out there.

Is that the right move? You know I don't think so. At some point you have to commit to a run and I think now is the time. I think the Nats are running a year behind where they should be. There will likely always be questions. We thought this year might clear up what guys like Gore and Abrams are. It didn't or at least not enough to plan on. While Garcia became less of a question, Ruiz and Gray became greater ones. That's the way seasons go. Waiting for absolute clarity on what must be done might mean waiting forever.

There are four big FAs left (Alonso, Bregman, Santander, and Flaherty) and any one of them fits into the Nats well. However, the signing of Bell likely rules out Alonso or Santander. Signing just one of Bregman or Flaherty likely isn't enough to make them a contender. So sign both? Or sign neither and hope next year the pieces you need will be there AND you can get them?

I'll admit that's not an easy call outside of "not my money - sign everyone" thinking. Which of course is my thinking. So sign both. 

But in reality they are probably done with SP signings and their potential to land Bregman lies with Boras using the Nats as a 1yr stopping point if the contract he wants isn't out there. Our best bet for financially based improvement lies in the bullpen where solid quality arms still are out there. That's my expectations. A couple of solid FA RP signings then head to camp with an eye on getting over .500 and maybe getting to 3rd place, catching whichever Mets/Braves/Phillies team stumbles. 

If that's 2025... well sure hope those kids like Wood and Crews are exciting bc it's not a season that interests me much. Wait 'til next year is not what you want to hear in March.

Trevor Williams?

 There’s still time but this offseason is definitely shaping up to be “what can we do cheaply in the next year or two, while we continue to evaluate the kids”

There’s ways this is ok.  Like if it’s a pre-cursor to long term deals for the kids followed up by big contracts in the next couple of off-seasons. But for a squad that looked primed to take a big step forward in 2025 this “it’s in the baseball gods hands now” approach is disappointing.  Especially in a very competitive NL East where a GOOD team might end up under .500

Josh Bell? Uhh... ok?

Bell is back! 

Quick thoughts - uh oh. 

This means to me the Nats aren't serious about making the playoffs next year which really I think they should be.  They could surprise me with a big FA starter and some solid relief pick-ups but this really seems like the end of the batting pick-ups and I can't see thing being enough to make the line-up good.  It can be, the kids can do things, but you can't expect it to be better than average and that's a stretch. 

Bell is average and getting worse. All the fancy stats are in decline and he's at the age where that can happen. If the Nats get an average season from him they should feel happy. Better bet is he's worse this year and the Nats DH woes continue. 

More tomorrow

Perfectly good player incoming!

The Nats traded Robert Garcia for Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers. It's a solid, if unspectacular move that makes the Nats better, without giving up too much or costing them a lot of money leaving them the ability to do other things to help the team. 

The good is pretty obvious.  Lowe hits around .260+ walks about 75 times and hits about 17 homers.  That's good enough for a 110+ OPS+ which is good enough for Top 10-15 offense in the MLB (1st base has taken quite a dip).  Pair this with a Top 5ish defense at the position and you have one of the better first baseman in the league.  In a sense in production he replaces what Jesse Winker would have done for the team if he stayed for the full season, though in a wildly different way, maybe even a little better. 

What's the downside? On the Lowe side not much.  You could definitely argue that what the Nats were really lacking was power and that's the one thing Lowe doesn't bring. This is something that Carlos Santana or Paul Goldschmidt, both signed for about the cost of Lowe, have. He also had his worst power year of his career last year. Is he on the downslide? It's one thing to hit 17 homers.  It's another to hit 12. 

You can also look at last year and see it's not just luck, pretty much ALL his fancy stats like hard-hit%, barrels, even things related to his patience like chase % went down.  If this is the start of a decline he doesn't have too far to fall before he's below average at the plate. And if it was an aberration. one could say the ceiling on Lowe is about as "low" as it could be. He's just good. That's it. 

But back to good, Lowe will turn 30 next year so while he could crash next year, you'd be better betting on that from Santana or Goldschmidt. And while Walker isn't OLD (sorry Anonymous commenter) he is old and a better bet to crash thought not to the level of the guys nearing 40. 

What about Robert Garcia?  I think people are underrating the impact of this move.  It's not that Robert Garcia was great. He was a the kind of pitcher that could be special. A lot of Ks, very few homers, and solid against all sides of the plate. But he walked just a few too many and gave up just a couple too many hits and had a bit too much bad luck to be more than good. Can he get to special? Probably! but at 29 next year you generally don't feel bad betting on things just continuing on as is.  

No the problem isn't Garcia, the problem is the Nats.  Robert Garcia was one of only TWO pitchers that the Nats have in the pen that seemed likely to be good. (Derek Law being the other) Right now the Nats pen is a huge gaping hole and when they are currently relying on a lot of young inexperienced arms and only brought in oft-injured arm to help this spells trouble.  

But lucky they have a bunch of money left to help solve this problem! 

Soroka was a good move IF they did other things to the rotation.  Lowe is just a good move. It's not game changing but it's the type of move that makes sense no matter what the Nats do the rest of the off-season.  Hopefully this isn't all they do of course.  

Walker, Houston Astro

 Christian Walker is not a Nat. He's an Astro.  3/60.  It's a bit of an overpay by year but the idea of getting out of the contract in 3 years for a player his age is appealing.  Better this than a 4/64 or 5/65, imo. 

With Walker out that leaves three 1B that would likely next year be an obvious upgrade.  Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. The latter two are older so a 1-2 year deal might be possible. I prefer Santana - a slick fielder and more likely to take the shorter deal.  There are other middling 1B (Conor Joe! Justin Turner!) but rather than that I'd have them sign like Joc Pederson to DH or something

 Time keeps moving on.

The Nats sign... not an ace

Michael J Soroka... wait a second... Hey it is J! Well actually J G, Michael John Graydon Soroka. 

One year / 9 million 

Soroka was a top prospect as a minor leaguer and lived up to the hype in his first full season. His 2.68 ERA was a bit of a mirage but a 21 year old throwing to a 3.25-3.50 ERA? In 2019? That's great and it nearly won him the Rookie of the Year. 

But here's the problem.  In his rookie year he started 29 games and threw 174 innings. In the next FIVE years he's started 18 and has thrown 126. That would be a worrying number if we were talking his average year. We're not. We're talking combined. And they haven't been good. 

Now we'll flip back to the good. He DID get better last year. More innings, fewer hits, fewer homers, more Ks. It wasn't close to a full season but it's the right trend coming off a two year injury hiatus

Flip. But one thing did get worse - his walk rate. It jumped to 5.0 BB/9!

Flip.  The Nats starting pitching surprised in 2024 by not walking anyone and not giving up homers. The hits came bc they didn't strike anyone out but with few people on base and the ball staying in the park the opponent had to string together hits and the runs were harder to come by. This is EXACTLY the type of pitcher Mike Soroka was when he was good. 

Flip. While he got better giving up homers last year, he still gave up a good number of them and he gives up a lot more fly balls now. If he is a flyable pitcher now there's only so much one can do with that. See Josiah Gray. 

Soroka is a gamble. Do the Nats need a gamble? I don't know.  Certainly not as the best arm they sign or even the second best but after that? Sure! Gambles are fun!  If it's a secondary move hitting one usually helps a lot more than missing one hurts. But is this a secondary move?  We can't answer that yet. 

If Soroka is not one of the best 2 SP brought in this off-season then I think this is an ok deal.  Not great.  Seems pretty expensive compared to the likely results. But ok. He was a Nats type of pitcher before getting hurt.  He's vaguely returning to some sort of form. Maybe you get lucky 

If Soroka IS one of the best 2 SP Brough in this off-season than this simply isn't enough.  It's a gamble then not only on Soroka but that everyone else in the rotation doesn't need more help. I don't like that gamble. If you are ready, you shouldn't need good breaks to get you winning, but bad breaks to get you losing.

Monday Quickie - Zipping to 4th

The 2025 ZiPS projections are out from fangraphs and while not something you should bet the house on (no projections are like that imo) it gives an idea of where the Nats are TODAY. And where they are is not very good! 

This shouldn't be surprising. They lost their best starting pitching (even abbreviated Trevor Williams was great enough to take this crown), their best pure hitter (Jesse Winker) and their likely best reliever Dylan Floro (Derek Law has an argument if you are the type that wants to argue).  They also dropped their 3rd best reliever (Finnegan) and a useful bat (Lane Thomas).  And in their place they've brought in... 

<insert cricket sounds> 

All that suggests a pretty stable team performance after a 71 win season, with the losses here balanced out by the losses of some really bad crap (Corbin, Rosario, Senzel, sadly Joey Meneses) and the improvement from the ton of younger players on the team.  They were the youngest team at the plate last year and younger than average on the mound and should drop down more. 

73 wins? 75? 

But this is telling us what we already know. The Nats need to get FA (or trade) help to make the playoffs more than a far outside possibility in 2025. The Nats have a month before "it's getting late early" but this is the story for the team right now. They need help. Will they get help?  Expect it repeated ad naseum until they give us something new to talk about by actually signing someone or it gets so late the talk changes to "what are they doing?"

Offseason Position Discussion : Starting Pitcher

The Nats starting pitching in 2024 was like the half-full half-empty glass of water. 

On one hand the Nats got an incredibly productive 13 starts from Trevor Williams, had no major injuries after April, and watched as three separate young pitchers in Jake Irvin (well... youngish), Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all showed a level of surprising competence. And it was the last year of Patrick Corbin! 

On the other hand, the last year of Patrick Corbin is still a year of Patrick Corbin. The injury they did have knocked Josiah Gray out for the year, a player they were hoping would make a huge step forward this year. The other huge step forward was desired from MacKenzie Gore, who showed some flashes but was mostly just ok. 

I think most people though, would end up looking at it half-full.  No they didn't find an ace but the Nats are probably happy in general with where they ended up. A rotation with 4 guys in their 20s pitching like 3/4s. 

 That's also not a playoff winning rotation, not unless these guys get better, someone steps up, someone gets signed, or the offense takes off. But that's a lot of options!

Presumed Plan : 

The rotation will feature MacKenizie Gore and three of Irvin, Parker, Herz, Gray, Cavalli with a FA signing in the 1 or 2 slot.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats have money to spend. But the Nats also have kids almost everywhere to evaluate.  So the spending is going to be concentrated on a few spots.

The rotation is no exception to having kids to evaluate. However when it comes to pitching "never enough" is a good mantra, and looking at the talent level of these guys, outside of Gore or maybe Herz if you squint, the chances of any of these guys being considered ace or near-ace is slim. 

So you sign someone you like to be a 1/2 and then you see what happens with the rest of them. Depending on that and who you sign and how they do, 2026's FA goals become clearer.

My Take :  

Yes, do this. Honestly they could sign two starters and I'd be happy with it. 

I don't like relying on non-prospect kids who are probably ok but could flame out and leave the Nats in real trouble. And yes "ok" is the best way to describe them. As solid as these guys seemingly were the Nats rotation was actually pretty mediocre overall. Alot of that was Corbin but take him out and replace him with a guy like the other 4 and you don't get that much better.  Hitting was down last year (NL OPS dropped from .740 to .719) so what appeared to be good season were just average. 

Not that you are angry with a 24 year old average pitcher but you don't want a rotation that's 5 of these.

They need a reliable ace-type and Corbin Burnes fits the bill. Plus replacing a bad Corbin with a good one would make me happy.  He's been consistently really good. The declining K rate is a bit of a concern but it came along with solid control keeping him a very good pitcher, if not great. Get him. 

Failing that there isn't a great pitcher unless you want to bet on Verlander (I don't). With potential still out there are Jack Flaherty (has hit 30 starts once in his career with mixed results after looking like a star. Was very good last year), then Kyle Gibson/Charlie Morton (steady, reliable, too old for more than a couple year contract though), then guys like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea who aren't really 1/2s. That's kind of why I want Burnes who seems to be as sure a thing as you can get.  There are some potential 1/2s next year (Cease, Gallen, Framber) but you can't rely on them getting to FA.

One last intriguing option is Patrick Sandoval. This is a guy who when he's right looks like a 1/2 but is coming off of Tommy John and will miss most of 2025.  He's a signing for the future and a gamble which makes him sort of fit with the Nats, who could then just evaluate everyone to start the year. And if you wanted to sneak a deal this may be a place to look. Of course this suggests punting 2025 for a playoff run.

 

Other notes

The Nats have been noted in interest for Gleyber Torres. As a Yankees fan I can say he's perfectly ok overall but has some real bad stretches at the plate and more importantly with concentration. Not a bad guy at all, but that makes him seems like a bad fit for the Nats who can obsess over that type of thing.

They picked up a relief Rule V arm in Evan Reifert. Looked real good in 40 innings of AA ball. Great stuff, but wild. They also lost Matt Cronin in the minor league portion. He looked like a guy set for the majors before getting hurt in 2023. Wouldn't surprise me if he became productive.

The Nats won the draft lottery. Early indications overall is that it's better than the weak 2024 class but mostly bc of high schoolers as opposed to college players who might be ready sooner and fit better in the Nats window. Still when you have the #1 pick all you care about is how the best guy is doing.

Soto to Mets

A bit slow on this - 15/765, signing bonuses, opt outs 

My general thinking is 

1) This stinks for me. I wanted him on the Yankees. I do view their offer as a reasonable effort and imagine Cohen was true to his word on not being outbid. I wouldn't be surprised if the bidding began in the low 600s and escalated to the point it ended at.  The Red Sox bowing out at 700 mill and the Yankees at their number. 

Ok so now use that money for a bunch of other things. The bottom of the lineup can't be Oswaldo, DJ, and Trent Grisham

2) This stinks for Nats fans.  Soto signing anywhere else would be bad but signing for another NL East team where you see them more times a year than any other player? And they are competing directly against you for titles? Ugh. 

What's worse on some level is not that the Nats didn't get Soto, as we talked about before. The Nats aren't a 15/765 team and that's fine! Like 2-4 teams are and guess what? More than 2-4 teams make the playoffs and they can also win the Series. But what's worse is that the Nats never looked in it.  They should be a 15/600 team and just hearing their name early on, even if it wasn't going to happen would have shown a level of seriousness in this window we haven't seen yet. 

3) Not sure what this means for Soto. Cohen has completely committed to spending money but also that hasn't quite resulted in a new dynasty forming. The Mets over the past 4 years have been underwhelming and face quite of level of competition with the young controlled Braves, the star driven Phillies, and yes, the potential up and coming Nats. 

He'll be great.  He'll get paid. If he wants to win... I think there were better places (and I'm not necessarily saying the Yankees). But you know what? Winning isn't guaranteed. Getting paid is.  So get paid. 

OK Nats.  Let's move forward now. Onward and upward. The bar has been raised for the NL East. Rizzo has some work to do/

Too early to worry

The Nats don't look to be in on Soto. 

That may disappoint but it shouldn't be a surprise given that he's going to push 700 million total and 60 per year.  Soto is for teams that are fine being Top 3 payroll letting money cover up their mistakes. That's not the Nats and it never has been the Nats. 

But that doesn't mean they won't spend. 

Now could it inflate the salaries of everyone to the point where the Nats are too gun shy over any single one? I suppose but we're talking conjecture here. Right now what we know is this : 

• The Nats have a fair amount of money to spend.  Depending on what they want to do that could be 50 to 100+ million*. That's a lot! 
• The Nats have shown in the past they will spend and be a Top 10-Top 5 ish payroll in the league if not out and out compete with the big boys. 
• The Nats have made hints that they will be more aggressive in FA this off-season
• The Winter Meetings haven't taken place yet. We're still very early in the process. 

 I still have high-ish expectations, with the issues being more about the talent on the FA market than the Nats willingness. You can get worried in a normal FA period when we get later in January, but not early in December. 

 *ok if they want to do nothing it could be 0 million but no one thinks that's the case

Offseason Position Discussion : Other OF

The Nats OF was not an issue last year.  It wasn't necessarily "good" but it was a relative strength while being the centerpiece for the plans for the future. It featured a mix of players outside of Wood and later Crews who we talked about last time. Winker (good!), Eddie Rosario (very bad!), and Alex Call (very good but much fewer PA) all started a decent number of games in the OF but the guys with the most time were Lane Thomas and Jacob Young.  Thomas hit well enough to keep himself a trade target and got sent away at the trade deadline.  Young fielded like a beast and hit well enough to keep the job. 

The question for 2025 is who joins Crews and Wood in the Nats OF of the future... of today

Presumed Plan : 

Jacob Young will start in CF

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

We talked about it in the comments a while back but Jacob Young played like possibly the best CF in baseball last year.  Wood needs defensive help and you don't want to rely on Crews, still learning the position at the major league level, to have to give it to him. 

While Alex Call has some history at being a very good fielder and shone with the bat for a month last year, he also has a unreliable history at the plate and more importantly is five years older than Jacob Young. If you are going to bet on someone for the future, which it seems like the Nats would do, it would be Young. 

They could also bring in a bat here but given the needs at 1B/DH and maybe 3B if they want to slow walk House or shake up the IF, letting the OF play out like this makes sense for a year. If Young doesn't come through then there's a target for improvement before 2026 which presumably will be the year they really try to make a playoff push.

My Take :  

This seems simple. Young, at 25 next year, deserves a shot to see if he can hit around average. If he fields like he did last year, that basically sets the Nats OF for the next half-decade (unless they want to move Wood).   

Also if Young doesn't hit he will at least give coverage to Wood, who has shown he may need it, while they find a solution in his place.  Having your worst hitter be a slick fielding CF is not a bad thing.

As for the alternatives. Long time readers know I'm not a fan of Alex Call. While I can't deny he can field and was impressed with his stint last year, it just doesn't makesense to gamble on a guy who hit poorly when given a real chance in 2023 and is going to be an old 30 next season. Personally I'd try to use his 2024 push to get something back and wish him well elsewhere. 

I'd use Stone Garrett who's been a fairly consistent solid OF in his limited chances, to be the 4th OF and possible replacement for Young if he struggles or Crews if he struggles hard.

The minors don't really have anyone else knocking at the door.  Hassell is now in "trying to get back to form" mode having passed the "recovering from injury" time frame. Daylen Lile did fine in AA but nothing that suggests he'll be forcing anything in 2025. I guess since the rest of the media does it here is an obligatory Elijah Green reference bc he was drafted high and had that one good month.

It doesn't seem hard. Let it play out with the guys you ended the season with. Fix things elsewhere. Hope it works out.

Offseason Position Discussion : 2/3rds of the OF

The Nats have two of the most highly touted OF prospects in their system. 

James Wood, received in the Soto trade, blossomed through the minors nearly exactly as one would hope culminating in a .353 / .463 / .595 line over 52 games in AAA last year.  He deservedly got the call up earlier in 2024 and while he wasn't an immediate phenom he acquitted himself very nicely finishing the year with a .264 / .354 / .427 line. On a per game basis he was the 2nd best bat for the Nationals*. We must note he did have issues in the field, but not to the levels the Nats are already looking to move him. 

Dylan Crews, drafted #2 overall in 2023, didn't impress like Wood.  He rocked single A for a couple weeks, but initially struggled in AA, improved enough to get a call up to AAA then hit decently there. He got the usual rookie September call-up and looked like a rookie, but at least to start 2025 he should be playing in the OF. His defense looked good, if not the amazing defense promised, and he ran well as a bonus.

Presumed Plan : 

Wood will start in left field.  Crews will start in CF or RF depending.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Wood looked like a major league hitter already. He makes a lot of good hard contact. He runs well as seen on the basepaths so the assumption is he can learn to play a better LF where his instincts looked off. Certainly at 22 you don't want to already resign yourselves to playing him at 1B/DH 

Crews looked like a major league fielder and baserunner, but of course a lot of guys do.  His hitting was a little disappointing, as it has been in the minors, but he'll only be 23 next year and he's just a couple years out of college. It would be nice to give him a little more time in the minors but the Nats really want to see what they can do sooner rather than later, so they aren't waiting on the perfect moment. Crews CAN go now, so he's taking his shot in 2025. 

My Take :  

Wood has basically already proven himself. The question is not really if he will hit in the majors but how well will he hit and at what position will he do it from.  The Nats would rather he play the OF than try to learn 1B or be forced to stick him at DH so he'll get his chances there probably for several years. His skill set suggests he should be good, but I'll remind everyone that said something similar about Juan Soto (though he's not nearly as athletic) that Soto didn't improve much. Chances of Wood being a good fielder are getting slim. The good news is that he doesn't have to be. If he can be average his youth will let him hold down the position for a long while AND the Nats have some very good fielding OFs. If they go something like Young / Crews in the other positions, Wood will be asked to do less. 

As far as the bat goes - he has the power. He just has to get under the ball more. He hit 55% GBs last year which is fine if you are a slap hitter. Wood's legs and just how hard he hits the balls means a lot of hits from those but everyone is hoping he turns more of those singles into doubles and doubles into homers. He does strike out a lot but that's modern baseball. That's something to keep an eye on this year. If teams can exploit that, but it's something to note, not worry about. 

Crews is a bit more of a question. The guy can play CF and can run and so he's got inherent value beyond the plate. That was good in 2024 because he didn't hit very well. Given his brief minor league history you have to wonder if he is going to be special or not. It should be fine if he isn't, but the Nats (and fans) were clearly hoping for special. Of course there is still time for that and some of his peripherals suggest the great hitter is in there.  His contact and eye are both good and he also could hit a lot fewer GBs (56%) which would translate into more power... probably. Crews didn't barrel the ball as you'd like and we're going on a year and a half of "where's the pop" 

It sounds like I'm down but I'm not. Crews is a highly touted prospect developing on a normal pace. He might be great still. He might also still miss, though not in a "terrible never make the majors" sort of way. That the Nats are looking at him in 2025 and it's only a little bit of a stretch is good. He only looks bad in comparison with guys like Wood and Langford, who make it look easy. Compared to most other drafted hitters he's well ahead. That's why he's a highly touted prospect.

I'm not exactly sure why he had to come up when he did. But if their plan is to get a full picture of the state of the team by the end of 2025, I can see it. You'd want Crews to play a bulk of 2025 in the majors. Might as well let him get his feet wet first. And what's the alternative? Another 1 year FA to try to flip?  Garrett and Young and see what happens? Eh.  I can't really complain here.

 Tomorrow starts today. The Nats future is now.

 

*Behind Jesse Winker

Offseason Position Discussion : Third Base

If you are inclined to be angry at the Nats for bad decisions, third base in 2024 provoked you to a near fury.  The Nats went into the season with a two prong strategy (note that this is the perfect number of prongs to stick in a socket and electrocute yourself), third base would be split between "never prospect" Trey Lipscomb based off a minor amount of competence shown in AA with just a bit of surprising pop, and "crashed and burned" former 2nd pick in the draft Nick Senzel who had been given a solid chance by the Reds and hadn't progressed past "bad".

Guess what? This didn't work. In August and September Jose Tena took the position and hit pretty well.  He fielded like crap but based on all reports on him that was an anomaly.  It ended up a real black hole for the Nats after just last year being a pleasant surprise with Jeimer Candelario.

The idea though is that this was a bridge year to the Brady House plan that takes place at some point in 2025. At the end of July that looked like Opening Day but Brady House hit .228 / .261 / .339 the rest of the way making that look unlikely.

Are you ready for another season of the Nats punting?

Presumed Plan : 

Tena holding the position until House is ready.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

With Vargas now gone, Tena should be the super-sub but he's the only one on the team who played 3B last year. That makes him the leader in the clubhouse. As DH/1B are noted issues without an hopeful solution in the minors coming up soon, they deserve more of the FA look.  Tena wasn't bad at the plate and should field so you play him and hope either he comes through or Brady House starts like a House on fire, or both and things just work out. 

They will need to find a back up though. Do they carry Trey Lipscomb for that? Just stick with Andres Chaparro who is a subpar defender? I'm not sure they know and they might be looking for FA to find the answer for them.

My Take : 

This could be trouble.  They really didn't want to be in punt mode again in 2025 but Brady House didn't push through enough to make you want to bring him up and neither of their low-rent fixes surprised. They are now stuck with a minor mid-season trade surprise to try to keep up what he did in 2024 while getting back on track with the glove. This has all the makings of another year of this position being one of the worst in the majors. 

But I don't know what you do since all expectations are that House will be given the chance to take over the position at some point. You either go all in on a solution or you hope like a Jose Iglesias or Donovan Solano falls into your lap for a couple million. Sure those guys might fail to hit againbut it's worth a few million to see. 

There IS an all in solution in Alex Bregman who will demand and get a big long salary as the best option at the position by a good margin. The Nats could do that then let 1B/DH figure itself out and worry about where House goes later - or maybe even trade him off. I don't think that's where I want the Nats to land even if he is the #2 position player available. He's just not the gamechanger the Nats need, imo. This offense doesn't need solid - which is what he is now