No, no. Just kidding. Maybe for the Orioles.
Since we're on a lucky/unlucky kick let's see which Nats are due to see things turn around... in any direction.
HIGH BABIP - (BA should get lower)
No surprise that Keibert in on here though he's not super crazy high. It should also not surprise you to see Nathaniel Lowe here as well. A career .260s hitter hitting .290 to start is likely getting some bounces. But what should surprise, shock, and dismay you that Paul DeJong is among the lucky ones. Yikes! Nice knowing you Paul!
LOW BABIP (BA should get higher)
The oft-mentioned Dylan Crews and the below expectations Luis Garcia both should see a rise in BA. Josh Bell may be cooked but he's not THIS cooked.
HIGH HR/FB RATE (should see fewer homers)
James Wood might be the best HR hitter in baseball by far. But if he's not, expect a few fewer over the fence.
LOW HR/FB RATE
Luis Garcia should get something over the fence soon.
PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB
Mitchell Parker is basically rolling straight 7s, lucky in all aspects. Jake Irvin is also getting fewer hits and letting in fewer runs than you'd expect. The highlights of the pen, Finnegan and what we've seen of Henry should be letting in more runs, though in neither case does this mean the guy should be bad.
PITCHING BABIP/LOB/HR/FB
As you can imagine Sims and Poche are getting unlucky and when you combine that with bad pitching you see horrendous results. Brad Lord and Jose Ferrer are more in line for having improvements that actually should make them usable. Can you believe Gore could have a bit more luck? His BABIP suggests so and his other numbers are very regular.
Expect Garcia to get right soon. Expect Paul DeJong to be gone. The starting pitching should get a bit worse and the bullpen should see some competing improvements and scale backs. However replacing Sims and Poche would likely improve it for no cost but Rizzo's pride. Where they stand now in general (74/75 win team) seems very much what they are.
2 comments:
Paul DeJong can’t be gone unless/until he gets back. He’s on the IL after getting his nose fractured on a scary HBP. Last report that I heard was that he was experiencing blurred vision.
Harper, I like the concept of trying to make sense of early season stats by figuring out what results look luck-driven vs. those that might be sustainable (in a good or bad direction). But I think you've got to look at this holistically, player-by-player (like you did in your post about Mitchell F. Parker) and not concept-by-concept across the team (e.g., who's BABIP is too high or too low). You're right that Wood's HR/FB rate is unsustainably high (though I don't think we should discount that Wood will be the best homer guy in baseball at some point over the next handful of years given his tools). At the same time, Wood's xwOBA is higher than his actual wOBA even considering this unsustainable HR rate. All in, the dude has been slightly unlikely compared to how hard he's hitting the ball (which, according to the fanciest stats we have, is "hard as f*uck").
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