Nationals Baseball: Ramos 2011 v Pudge 2010

Friday, April 15, 2011

Ramos 2011 v Pudge 2010

I REALLY want to say "Look how well Ramos is doing!" but there is a couple things holding me back. For one, he's only started 6 games so far (note to Riggs : Not seeing that "more playing time for Ramos" thing yet) so all we have is a long week's worth of data. Secondly, I have Pudge 2010 staring me right in the face.

Last year Pudge started out super hot and a bunch of people got all excited while the rest of us said it couldn't last. The last 3 years of stats all said he was a terrible hitter. It didn't last. Hooray for the rest of us. But the same thing has to apply to Ramos. We don't know how fast and how far he has to fall, because he is young and we have limited major league stats for him, but he will fall. Ok saying he's not going to hit .450 isn't exactly going out on a limb. But really what I'm trying to say is because we don't have a strong sense of how well he should be doing, we can't say from this starting hot streak that he is sure to be good. We just don't know yet. Despite the positives in Ramos' corner in comparison to Pudge (Ramos is hitting a bunch of line drives, Ramos started playing after baseball codified 4 balls for a walk) let's wait until month's end to see what we see.

For those that need any further calming down

Pudge 2010 after 8 games : .419 / .471 / .581, with a .433 BABIP
Ramos 2011 after 8 games : .455 /.538 /.545, with a .625 BABIP


Anonymous said...

He will slump, no doubt about it. But he sure looks good for now - and its nice to have an area with depth.

Hoo said...

You're reaching in throwing the cold water. We know that his hitting will cool off. But so what? He has more power than Pudge and a better batting eye.

In 398 bats last year, Pudge had 16 walks (2 IBB), in 22 ABs this year, Ramos has 4 walks. I doubt that rates sustainable either, but my guess is that Ramos ends up something like 3 times as many walks in less ABs vis as vis Pudget 2010.

And more importantly, it's not about Ramos vs. Pudge 2010, it's about Ramos vs. Pudge in 2011.

I'm also more interested to see if any of our high character bench guys can break .200 (Hairston, Cora, Stairs) and if Nix can hold onto being the key value guy of the 2001 Memorial Bowden Dumpster Dive.

bdrube said...

I put Ramos's promising start in with Espinosa's and Zimmermann's. It is EXCITING to finally have some young guys to root for who don't obviously suck (paging, Kory Casto). Think about how FEW players we've had the past six years who fit that description. Now we just need to get Detwiler back up here.

Harper said...

Anon - the best part about depth at catcher is they make awfully nice trade pieces.

Hoo - Well... he should have more power and a better batting eye than Pudge but really we don't know that for sure. Last year he had half as many walks in 3x as many at bats. Can we say that's more ignorable? I'm not saying Ramos isn't better than Pudge right now (because Pudge is terrible), or that Ramos shouldn't be playing a ton, just that we're not sure how good Ramos really is and this fast start is maybe making Nats fans too giddy.

The "Wil Cordero All-Stars"? Oddly Hairston is the best bet to beat .200. He'd been under/around .200 before but not since 2007. Cora batted .210 last year. Stairs .189 2 years ago.

Harper said...

bdrube - if the season ends and Espinosa and Ramos look like good major league players I think the season is a win for the Nats. You can find corner OFs and 1B if you are willing to pay and everyone is short 1 MI, but to go into 2012 with a good C, 2b (or SS where Espy can play), 3b and RF is a strong jumping off point.

Bryan said...

Harper - your point(s) is good. But I think you miss something (sorta miss the forest for the trees) and the comments seem to be beating around the bush as well:

Even assuming comparing 2010 Pudge to 2011 Ramos is legit, I'd much rather have an young guy hitting an unsustainable .450 which might fall to .260 or .280 or .300 than a beyond aging Vet whose .413 is almost certainly going to end up at .230.

Harper said...

Bryan - well yeah. Pudge was going to crash to a terrible level. Ramos could crash to a terrible level too. But he could also simmer down to a really good level. Or more likely than either of those - crash but end up at a level around league average.

None of this has to do with the hot start though - it's really just a continuation of what we thought going in. I guess that should have been the post "Hey, remember what you thought of Ramos going into the year? Keep thinking that because there haven't been enough games and even terrible players, like 2010 Pudge, can have hot starts"

I need an editor I guess

Hoo said...

Ramos with 2 starts in a row and Espi now hitting lead off!

It's almost the ideal lineup (except for Hairston and maybe ankiel over Nix).

BTW, Harper I doubt they'll ever go Laroche/Ankiel or Nix at 4/5 b/c of the lefty thing, so Ramos at 5 is nice.