Nationals Baseball: Z... 2... 1...

Friday, February 24, 2012

Z... 2... 1...

Z-Day. No dice... So far. 

Supposedly hinging on the no-trade clause but outside of that room no one can be 100% sure.  Seems reasonable though.  If Zimmerman really wants to try to finish his career here the last thing he wants is to find out he's been shipped to Colorado in 3 years.  On the Nats side they have a potential replacement drafted and Zimmerman is an injury risk.  Two bad years in a row, with Rendon knocking at the door, and Rizzo could easily think the Nats are better off eating some of the contract to free up some more money.

Again, because of the strong feeling that both sides really want to come to terms, I don't see a deal happening right now.  There just ins't that pressure that can force those last hurdles to be overcome.


Hoo said...

Interesting conundrum.

Zim sees himself as giving the Nats a team and injury discount. Zim doesn't want to give a discount and then end up a mariner.

Nats however want the ability to flip Zim if Rendon pans out.

If no deal gets down now, then Zim becomes more expensive in October and Nats get to examine Rendon. I think if no deal isn't done by April, the odds of Zim as a Nat in 2014 drop substantially.

Zim quote below:
"The important part of me signing this deal is to be here, not to sign a deal that’s team-friendly to have it with another team,” Zimmerman said. “That’s the whole point of doing it. … I wouldn’t sign a deal like this for the Red Sox or the Yankees or the Dodgers or any other team."

blovy8 said...

The last hurdle can be jumped. He can settle for a limited no-trade clause, if the team gets him for less than market value, that's still a win. It would only take a couple of team names probably to make it hard enough that there isn't a big chance of getting dealt. If it gets ugly here at any point, he may want to waive the clause and leave anyway regardless of what he's making. It's kind of a pose, with the injuries he's wracked up, it's security for him before he'd have to convince rich teams that his numbers show more than they have.

blovy8 said...

For the Nats, it's negoiating the best price. Maybe if Zim gets hurt again there may still be no deal, because he's now proven he's not durable. There's always going to be haggling. Zim's talent level has been established and he's in his prime. I think he makes better contact than Chavez, so it's notink that great a comp, but Rolen I could see. That guy had 3 or 4 WAR seasons even when he missed time. 18 mil a year for Zim will be a BARGAIN, and that's the rumored price. Who is a better player on this club? Morse has had one year of great production, but can't field. Werth was crappy last year and it's unclear whether he'll be any more than a complimentary player. LaRoche is worth about a 1/3 - 1/2 of Zim even when he's healthy. The team is going to need more than even a precocious Harper performance to build around, especially if that guy is going to jump at free agency first chance he gets. The window is now, why screw around with a run producer you can get cheaply? I think you've got a character guy here that you build around, not that you try to dick around. Do you really want Harper to be the FOF?

michael k said...

The news I've been reading makes me pretty confident that a long-term deal will be reached, if not now then next year.

Remember, there are 10/5 considerations. If I know the rule correctly, Zim gets to veto any trade after playing four more years. That's two years into the new deal, presuming it doesn't touch the old one.

Harper said...

Hoo - I'd love to see what the terms are. At some point the numbers becomes so reasonable that the Nats would be fools to not give him the no-trade. If it's 6/90 FOOLS if it's 6/114 - not fools.

I don't think no deal now really effects his chances of a deal later, but I also don't think Rendon is going to immediately shine.

B8 - how limited is limited. When he's saying he wouldn't do this deal for the Sox, Yanks, or Dodgers what teams does that leave?

I think you sign Zim because the Nats are going to have a real chance 2012-2014 with a healthy Zim probably no chance with out him. It may be a bad deal from 2015 on but SO MUCH can happen by then. In sports planning for tomorrow just means not succeeding today.

mk - I think if he has a good year a deal will be reached right soon after the season ends. Figure Ryan will still give a "discount" - say 20 mill a year and the Nats will swallow the no-trade.

If he has a bad or injured year I think he walks. I think the Nats will insist on either a short deal or a no-trade and I think Ryan will know/get something he likes better elsewhere.

michael k said...

so you don't think 10/5 plays a role?

Harper said...

Mk - I'm trying to figure out why it would. If they you extend him now with no no-trade clause you have that 4 year window to deal him. Figuring that you think the Nats would just say "screw it" since it really isn't no-trade for contract but no-trade for a couple years at the beginning of the extension? Or that Ryan would be more likely to take an extension without a no-trade because he knows that in a few years he'll have that power anyway?

michael k said...

Well, if the extension doesn't affect the current contract, only two years will be affected by a NTC. But a NTC will probably be applied to the next two years, even if the money doesn't change. So really I guess you're right. If the Nats are going to trade Zim it won't be after 2015.

Wally said...

Kurkjian says it is 6/$108m, right in the middle of your fool/no fool barometer. I think those numbers, if true, are a pretty good deal for the team.

And since I see no realistic scenario where they trade him within the next four years, the no trade wouldn't be a hang up for me. I think Stras AND JZimm blowing out their arms again, plus Purke and Meyer flaming out, are what makes Rizzo blow it up again.

Because if you have three quality SPs, you'll have a punchers chance of a WC in any given year, and you'd never trade a healthy Zim (and couldn't if he isn't healthy)

Anonymous said...

Go on YouTube. Watch Zim's highlights. Watch the walkoffs. I've gone to games since the late 60's and have only seen 2 players equal in the moment--Reggie Jackson and Eddie Murray. Eddie was the only one who had the same "hey, time to pack up because you KNOW the hit is coming" vibe. You watch Zim up with the game on the line, see the left foot come up a little higher than normal and you know the ball is gone. The cool thing is watching him on the closeups and you see he knows it, too. Injury-prone is utter nonsense. This is not Chipper Jones who you're just waiting for a knee to blow out again or a troublesome hamstring or something like that. This is the best third baseman in the National League, based on time of service the best third baseman in either league. He should be signed, tonight, with a full no-trade clause. "Face of the franchise" is a gaudy label, but when you apply it to the guy who christened your new park with a walk off HR, rents the park for a charity event every year (and insists it's in the contract to do so), puts the jersey on your #1 pick and looks proud to do so, when the play has to be made or the hit has to be now comes through at an ridiculous sign him at almost any cost. That's the fan's view and speaking as a DC baseball fan from when we had that other club now playing in the WS occasionally, my view.
From the business standpoint, there's a perception problem for management. The Nat's brass wants to build from the farm, have depth, have player control. Fine strategies. None of the current homegrown products are remotely in the same league of accomplishment as Ryan and if the club is perceived (in the players' minds) as considering him just another player, management will be paying top dollar for each individual in the future, as opposed to being able to choose the better players who are willing to give the club/loyalty discount.
Signed or not, the heart of the order will probably protect each other better this year than last and we're going to see a more productive 3-4-5 group.

Chaos--RZ's 2nd half 949 OPS with 17 HR's. A better fielder and hitter than Rendon will ever be.

DezoPenguin said...

ESPN's reporting 6 years, $100M, full no-trade clause. If he stays healthy, life is good. ^_^

Anonymous said...