You can make the argument that it is statistically an overpay dollar-wise BUT
- Good players are typically overpaid when they reach free agency and in a disproportionate way. The cost difference between an B player and a B+, is smaller than the difference between a B+ player and an A- one, etc.etc. Ryan is an A player. Even if by strict theory it shouldn't be, in reality this is a deal based on the market for the type of player he is.
- of course that's if he's healthy.
- Who cares? This is not about getting the best value, it's about getting the most wins. If you can afford to overpay you do it because each win matters.
- Unless you are think baseball teams should be run as businesses and not expensive hobbies
- Of course the loss of the no-trade clause could effect the Nats in a negative way down the road actually costing them wins
- In scenario 1, Zimmerman falls apart. Rendon is great. The Nats are hobbled with a veteran they have to pay that they likely could have gotten someone to bite on in a deal and possibly nowhere (and no will) to play him
- A possible scenario but I wouldn't call it likely
- personally I think expectations for Rendon are way too high.
- In scenario 2, the team falls apart (Gio fails, Stras injured again, Werth 2011 not a fluke, Ramos/Espy get no better...). The Nats are winning 70-75 games a year and then plan needs to be reset. Moving Zimm would help do it.
- Unlikely - and I don't think winning teams should plan for what may or may not happen 3-4 years down the road. You should have 2 year tunnel vision. Too much can change beyond that.
- That doesn't excuse stupid overpays (Werth) though
This means the Nats though either
- Have to go all-in to winning by 2015/6 because they most likely won't have the cash to keep their best young players going into FA
- ZNN, Strasburg, Gio, Ramos, Espinosa will all hit big bucks from 2015-2017, some will be dealt before reaching FA.
- By that point Werth will be done, Zimm will be declining.
- I won't be bothered if the Nats don't spend the money at this point assuming they have done so 2011-2014 to win.
- Have to become the Yankees/Sox of the NL and pay everyone a ton of money to play
- Get real lucky with the late round picks their farm system will now have to use and the trades they choose to make as the core hits FA.