Nationals Baseball: Quick Branching Hits on Zimm's signing

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Quick Branching Hits on Zimm's signing

I like the deal, alot.

You can make the argument that it is statistically an overpay dollar-wise BUT
  1. Good players are typically overpaid when they reach free agency and in a disproportionate way.  The cost difference between an B player and a B+, is smaller than the difference between a B+ player and an A- one, etc.etc. Ryan is an A player.  Even if by strict theory it shouldn't be, in reality this is a deal based on the market for the type of player he is.  
    1. of course that's if he's healthy. 
  2. Who cares? This is not about getting the best value, it's about getting the most wins.  If you can afford to overpay you do it because each win matters.  
    1. Unless you are think baseball teams should be run as businesses and not expensive hobbies
    2. Of course the loss of the no-trade clause could effect the Nats in a negative way down the road actually costing them wins
      1. In scenario 1, Zimmerman falls apart. Rendon is great. The Nats are hobbled with a veteran they have to pay that they likely could have gotten someone to bite on in a deal and possibly nowhere (and no will) to play him
        1. A possible scenario but I wouldn't call it likely 
          1. personally I think expectations for Rendon are way too high.
      2. In scenario 2, the team falls apart (Gio fails, Stras injured again, Werth 2011 not a fluke, Ramos/Espy get no better...).  The Nats are winning 70-75 games a year and then plan needs to be reset.  Moving Zimm would help do it. 
        1. Unlikely - and I don't think winning teams should plan for what may or may not happen 3-4 years down the road.  You should have 2 year tunnel vision.   Too much can change beyond that.  
          1. That doesn't excuse stupid overpays (Werth) though

This means the Nats though either
  1. Have to go all-in to winning by 2015/6 because they most likely won't have the cash to keep their best young players going into FA
    1. ZNN, Strasburg, Gio, Ramos, Espinosa will all hit big bucks from 2015-2017, some will be dealt before reaching FA. 
    2. By that point Werth will be done, Zimm will be declining.
    3. I won't be bothered if the Nats don't spend the money at this point assuming they have done so 2011-2014 to win.
  2. Have to become the Yankees/Sox of the NL and pay everyone a ton of money to play
  3. Get real lucky with the late round picks their farm system will now have to use and the trades they choose to make as the core hits FA.

11 comments:

Positively Half St. said...

It's funny how simple that complicated set of scenarios can be solved:

1. If the Nats win one champioship, everyone needs to admit it was all part of an excellent plan.

2. If the Nats win one NL pennant, maybe half will be of the same opinion.

If neither happens, everything is still up for interpretation.

+1/2St.

Nick said...

I love the deal for the Nats. The fact that Werth will be making more than Zim moving forward is still sickening, but we definitely got him for less than what he would have gotten on the FA market (assuming reasonable health).

Positively Half St. said...

You know, Zimmerman's contract might actually take a little pressure off Werth. Werth had been sticking out there all by himself, but Zimmerman is also now in the $100+ club.

All Nats fans should make a Spring Training attitude readjustment:

Jayson Werth is one of our guys, and we didn't sign his contract. We want him to be amazing, and should adopt the Spring Training optimism that he will be. There is only one comp I can think of in our history, lame as it is. Cristian Guzman was the object of our utter scorn during and after the 2005 season after he signed a free agent contract. He missed the 2006 season, and then was our All-Star in 2008.

I want multiple Nats All-Stars this year.

+1/2St.

Anonymous said...

Y'all know where I stand on the signing--this is an excellent deal for the franchise (and a good one for Ryan. Now, as far as the expectations, as a fan since the 60's, how 'bout we start with a winning season? Playing relevant games in September would be nice. Catching that wild card spot would be pretty cool; moving beyond the first round would be even better. Those are reasonable expectations.
Now in my fan's head, we have the top rotation in the NL, a lineup that will hit a quarter to a half a run better than last year and a club that should be challenging for the division and a spot in the Series.
The off-season is finally finished, spring training looks like an exercise in deciding that Bryce should start in the minors....for the first time in 4 decades, REALLY looking forward to putting the team on the field!

Chaos

kick me in the GO NATS said...

I see this as a fair value deal. Not an overpay. Werth was an overpay. Gio was probably an overpay in the long term. But, this deal seems fair as long as he stays relatively healthy.

Zimm is now the second highest paid 3rd basemen in baseball if my numbers are correct. He is in my opinion the second best 3rd basemen in baseball. Longoria is better, that darn Yankee is not.

blovy8 said...

Considering I read rumors about 18 million a year, this seems better of course. A lot of players have uncertainty as to their skill set, how it will age, recurring injuries, etc. the only issue with this deal is health. At his age, he can still improve a little as well. Even if he only averages 130 games a year, it ends up being a kind of break even thing considering the good PR it gives the team locking him up.

Anonymous said...

My 10-year old's reaction: "Awesome! This means Zimmerman will be a National until I graduate from high school!"

How to lock in a fan for life.

Harper said...

1/2st>0 - 1. Needs to?

The plan is good, not perfect but good. Hopefully it will show with good results.

You can root for Werth while still hating his contract.

Nick - get used to it - Werth will be paid more than at most 1 player on this team for a long while.

Chaos - I think we talked about this before, 1/2 run is a BIG improvement. That's a Zimm peak, Werth rebound, LaRoche no ill -effects, Morse no major slide, Ramos and Espinosa keep improving type of thing - in other words "everything goes right" Shouldn't be a downer though, still the most interesting team to watch since year 1.

GO NATS - Wright could be better, if he gets out of his funk. Moustakas is going to be up there. But right now - definitely top 2 and his contract falls under that going rate.

blovy8 - A healthy year and 18 mill is a bargain. Now let's hope he has a healthy year.

Anon - It certainly doesn't hurt, now keep him (or her) from losing interest. Win.

Anonymous said...

Hey Harper, it was your considered argument that got me to drop it from a half to a quarter to a half .

Chaos

Anonymous said...

I think it was a good deal and much better than trading Zim either this year or next.

As a side note I have seen Rendon play (not last year when he was hurt but the year before) and he has some serious talent. Of course a lot of players look great in college and fizzle out, but I think the hype is justified at least for the moment.

Ana said...

I see this as a fair value deal. Not an overpay. Werth was an overpay. Gio was probably an overpay in the long term. But, this deal seems fair as long as he stays relatively healthy. Zimm is now the second highest paid 3rd basemen in baseball if my numbers are correct. He is in my opinion the second best 3rd basemen in baseball. Longoria is better, that darn Yankee is not.