For me at least.
The Nats have 6 games till the All-Star break. For the first time in what feels like forever I think they stumbled into some bad luck with pitchers they are going to face. They get arguably the Giants two best pitchers (Cain and Bumgarner, but if you love Vogelsong feel free to yell at me) and they should get the only two guys on the Rockies staff who can pitch (Francis and Pomeranz). In the Giants series Cain and Bumgarner match up with Jackson and Detwiler so they have an edge here. The Nats should hope to take the first game (where Lincecum pitches vs ZNN. Lincecum has been better recently but that's only better than terrible, and he's been real spotty on the road) and split the last two. I'd give the Rockies more of a chance but Pomeranz matches with Strasburg followed by some jabroni vs Gio. Maybe they squeak out a win in the final game (likely to be Francis vs ZNN) but maybe not.
I think 4-2 is as low as you go for these 6, with 5-1 being far more likely than 3-3, despite how hot the Giants are. If the Nats are who they think they are, like maybe the team to beat in the NL, then they win at home versus everyone else. That's just the way it goes.
Quick Argument for Desmond
I was going to spend a bit more time on this but I think you can make a pretty good argument for Ian Desmond. Not for the AS game appearance. That argument doesn't have to be made, he's a legit choice. I mean for real improvement. I don't make this argument yet because I'm rather patient (or stubborn if you prefer) in changing my view, but it's there.
Desmond never really impressed in the minors until 2009, but he was constantly getting moved up and was generally young for his league. When he got to the majors a fast start raised expectations for him and he didn't deliver. The problem is, as a streaky hitter he'd have two bad, like awful, months for every good one. In 2010, he hit .347 / .385 / .465 in August but .222 / .259 / .309 in June and .239 / .288 / .330 in September. In 2011 he hit .302 / .331 / .448 in September but .218 / .255 / .287 in May and .217 / .255 / .228 in June. Since Ian doesn't walk when his average drops he needs to hit for power to still be useful. In the past he hasn't. His slugging died with his average creating a "shouldn't play" situation. In April of this year though things changed, .250 BA, .286 OBP, but that SLG? .370. It's not a good month, but it's not a black hole. His worst stretch during this time was a 11 game set where he hit .136. His SLG? .250. Ok, ok that's terrible but everyone has bad 11 game stretches. The difference is that this year's Ian slugged .250 whereas previous Ian might have slugged under < .200.
He just had two of the best 4 months in his career and easily his best 2-month stretch. In his last 4 months (including September of last year) his isoSLG has been .146 (average), .120 (below average, but decent for a SS), .234 (great), .253 (great). It's seeming more and more that the power seen in spurts in 2008 and 2010 is sticking, elevated in his hot months, depressed in his bad ones, but never disappearing.
There's still time for that death knell of a month to come along a ruin everything, but I can see the thinking that it won't. Even if he hits .220 the days of 2XBHs at the same time could very well be over. That's the difference between Ian being legitimately good and Ian playing just because you can't find anyone better.
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Harper, the next thing to wonder about is Flores. If Solano continues to perform like this, I think they'll be able to give him enough off days to see what he can do in a normal catcher pattern. The thing that worries me is how he puts his hand in his lap when he catches. It might be a reason he's good at blocking pitches, but man, that's just asking for trouble. I believe in him as a solid hitter for his position, though he can be fooled.
Personally I'm just hopeful they go 3-3 and no lower over this stretch.
I usually don't think managers have much effect on performance, but in this case I doubt it is a coincidence that Desmond started turning things around when Riggleman quit. His approach was just completely different and his confidence came back with no one trying to stuff him into the prototypical lead-off hitter box (and then making a fastball hitter hit 8th). So I think Davey should get a tiny bit of credit for just letting Desmond go with the style he is comfortable with.
And on the flip side I suppose Davey deserves some blame for letting Ankiel go with his completely consistent and utterly terrible approach ... but then again he isn't playing him ... so wooo Davey!
I do hope Desmond has improved. The plain truth is, with the way SS play has declined over the past couple of years, the only way to improve over Ian is to plug in a genuine superstar-type, who, unfortunately, do not grow on trees. Even though he's probably never going to walk much, if he hits for a decent average and keeps up with the adequate power, he can be the guy who hits 6th-7th in the order and not be hurting the team. Not trying to make him be the leadoff hitter was probably the best thing Davey could have done; Lombo's hot month with the bat essentially gave him the excuse to move Desmond down in the order, and both Ian and the Nats have thrived.
Jabroni, nice!
Boswell sees Espinosa on a similar trajectory of steady improvement. Would be nice if they both develop as Rizzo and Johnson think they can.
Ian is Cristian Guzman with more power, more speed, better range and a better arm. What's not to like?
I think being named to the all-star game has helped desmond too. The idea that you're good sometimes is all it takes to make you good. Let's hope it continues into october!
Let's see of Cain can tame NATS' bats today. What we now can hope for is a sweep!!
Well, NATS swept the Giants. This team is for real. Forget about kool-aid, I believe this team has a shot at the playoffs. They go 5-1this home stand.
After the all-star break, they play an interesting 25 game schedule that, except for 4 games in Milwaukee, are all against NL east teams. If they can come out of that stretch still up by 4-5 games or better, they'll be in command. Luckily, the schedules for the Mets, Braves and Marlins might be even tougher over that period.
You called this well at 5-1. I'm hoping for 6 - 0.
In the department of interesting statistics: Over the last 7 days, six of the Nats position players are in the top 50 performers of the NL in OPS. Led of course by Desmond. Harper is NOT there. Pretty amazing.
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