For me at least.
The Nats have 6 games till the All-Star break. For the first time in what feels like forever I think they stumbled into some bad luck with pitchers they are going to face. They get arguably the Giants two best pitchers (Cain and Bumgarner, but if you love Vogelsong feel free to yell at me) and they should get the only two guys on the Rockies staff who can pitch (Francis and Pomeranz). In the Giants series Cain and Bumgarner match up with Jackson and Detwiler so they have an edge here. The Nats should hope to take the first game (where Lincecum pitches vs ZNN. Lincecum has been better recently but that's only better than terrible, and he's been real spotty on the road) and split the last two. I'd give the Rockies more of a chance but Pomeranz matches with Strasburg followed by some jabroni vs Gio. Maybe they squeak out a win in the final game (likely to be Francis vs ZNN) but maybe not.
I think 4-2 is as low as you go for these 6, with 5-1 being far more likely than 3-3, despite how hot the Giants are. If the Nats are who they think they are, like maybe the team to beat in the NL, then they win at home versus everyone else. That's just the way it goes.
Quick Argument for Desmond
I was going to spend a bit more time on this but I think you can make a pretty good argument for Ian Desmond. Not for the AS game appearance. That argument doesn't have to be made, he's a legit choice. I mean for real improvement. I don't make this argument yet because I'm rather patient (or stubborn if you prefer) in changing my view, but it's there.
Desmond never really impressed in the minors until 2009, but he was constantly getting moved up and was generally young for his league. When he got to the majors a fast start raised expectations for him and he didn't deliver. The problem is, as a streaky hitter he'd have two bad, like awful, months for every good one. In 2010, he hit .347 / .385 / .465 in August but .222 / .259 / .309 in June and .239 / .288 / .330 in September. In 2011 he hit .302 / .331 / .448 in September but .218 / .255 / .287 in May and .217 / .255 / .228 in June. Since Ian doesn't walk when his average drops he needs to hit for power to still be useful. In the past he hasn't. His slugging died with his average creating a "shouldn't play" situation. In April of this year though things changed, .250 BA, .286 OBP, but that SLG? .370. It's not a good month, but it's not a black hole. His worst stretch during this time was a 11 game set where he hit .136. His SLG? .250. Ok, ok that's terrible but everyone has bad 11 game stretches. The difference is that this year's Ian slugged .250 whereas previous Ian might have slugged under < .200.
He just had two of the best 4 months in his career and easily his best 2-month stretch. In his last 4 months (including September of last year) his isoSLG has been .146 (average), .120 (below average, but decent for a SS), .234 (great), .253 (great). It's seeming more and more that the power seen in spurts in 2008 and 2010 is sticking, elevated in his hot months, depressed in his bad ones, but never disappearing.
There's still time for that death knell of a month to come along a ruin everything, but I can see the thinking that it won't. Even if he hits .220 the days of 2XBHs at the same time could very well be over. That's the difference between Ian being legitimately good and Ian playing just because you can't find anyone better.