Nationals Baseball: Worst Case Scenario

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Worst Case Scenario

The Nats are playoff bound, right? Can we all agree that's the most likely scenario from where the Nats are right now?  This is a team who's pitching has carried them to a record 15 games over .500 for the first "half" of the year. Even if you believe they got lucky, and their pitching can't stay this hot, and Jayson Werth is a pox on their house and will destroy the team from the inside out, how bad a team would that actually make them? 10 games over?  5 games over?

We go over this alot because it's fun to do. The commenters went over it in the last post. If they Nats simply go .500 the rest of the year - they will have a good shot at making the playoffs. Two or three games over .500? That's 88-90 wins. That's almost a lock, historically.

If the Nats play the last 79 games at a significantly worse pace than the first 83 they will still make the playoffs.

No, in order to miss the playoffs it can't just be some regression to means, or a piece of bad luck here or there.  It would take some combination of bad events to would bring this team under .500 for the 2nd half. Could it happen? I doubt it, but since each win makes the "what if they don't make it" more and more unlikely, we might as well get it out of our systems now. Here's how I see the Nats missing the playoffs.


Starting pitching
Strasburg, Gio, or ZNN go down with an injury early and Edwin Jackson loses steam. 

A starter injury is unlike any other injury because you are replacing the injured not with the next best guy but the 6th best guy. The drop off is going to be huge. The reason Lannan wasn't traded for a bag of balls was because the Nats don't have much depth at starting pitching. He takes over and does what Lannan does, which is fine but it's not what any of those three do. Any pitcher could pitch worse but given his history Edwin is the most likely to flame out (not likely, just the most likely out of these guys). That would leave the Nats with a rather typical staff of two great pitchers, one decent 3rd and a 4th and a 5th that are ok.  It's not a bad staff, probably still just better than average, but this team was carried by a dominating staff.

Relief pitching
The back of the pen has an extended bad stretch.

Guys go through bad stretches.  It happens. But because relief pitchers pitch so few innings though, you can manage to get through a season without seeing a significant one. That's what's happened so far. On the flip side you can have good pitchers look bad for a month. (See Sean Burnett early last year).  If the Nats have the misfortune of having a couple guys hit bad months in the 2nd half obviously the pen will suffer. I have trouble thinking it gets worse than good, given the amount of talented arms, but if say Clippard and Burnett both go cold at the same time that could cost the Nats a few games as they re-align the pen.

OK so the pitching takes a bunch of hits... and it's still ok. I can't see this becoming a bad staff barring a major injury run of 4 arms or so.  But with the pitching only slightly above average the hitting needs to pick up its game.  It had looked like it's heading toward average and that itself might be enough even if the above happens so we need another thing to go against the Nats.

Hitting
Nothing goes right. Espinosa and the catcher spot remain holes. Desmond cools down. None of Morse, Zimm, LaRoche, or Bryce step up. Werth is more like last year than early this year.

Nothing in particular about the above is particularly crazy to think could happen. Hell, I'd say there are good reasons to bet on each individual performance to go that way (except maybe Werth), but the thing is they shouldn't ALL go this way. When you are talking about a mix of 8 players some should perform better, some as expected, some worse.  Maybe Danny gets hot, maybe Ian is truly the next slugging star, maybe Morse hits like last year.  Something good should happen for the Nats. In the above no one is performing better. Nothing is going right.

This isn't an impossibility, like saying "everybody had terrible second halfs" would be.  That "everything goes wrong" is something that just can't happen over the course of 80 games. 20 maybe, but not 80.  But the "nothing goes right" isn't as strong a statement because it includes players putting up numbers that are fair to expect. Look at the pitching staff. Almost nothing went wrong in the first half *

Front Office
No deals are made to help out

Even if all the above happens there are names of guys out there that could help out in the scenarios above.  Greinke or Garza,  maybe Upton could inject some life into the offense if it remains down. But the front office is reluctant to deal because any big one would leave the minors pretty bare. So Rizzo sits and does nothing, damns the team's second half luck and waits to 2013 just as he had been doing before the season.


So now you have a good but not great pitching staff, and a offense that remains below average. That combinations puts the team as a below .500 team. Not terrible mind you but say 37-42 the rest of the year and that's enough to keep them out of the playoffs.  All it takes is the pitching staff to suffer a major injury, key guys underperforming in the bullpen, nothing to go right for the offense, and no help coming from the front office. Like I said, we shouldn't have much more time to come up with plausible playoff miss scenarios so enjoy this one pessimists.

*Looking back I did say "everything went right" with the pitching staff. That's an overstatement. I mean it did go right, but only because Strasburg, ZNN, Clippard pitching as expected is good enough to be thought of as "right".  But everyone isn't outperforming expectations.  "Nothing went wrong" is a better way of putting it.

85 comments:

Donald said...

The loss of one of the top starting pitchers would be the biggest blow, particularly if it occurred right after the trade deadline, but that alone might not be enough to doom this team.

There's one more scenario, however, that should be mentioned, and that's having 3-4 other teams catch fire. If the Nats play okay but the Braves (or Marlins or Mets) play great, we could drop out of first and into the wildcard pot. At that point we're competing against the #2 out west (Dodgers or Giants; the #2 in the central (Pirates or Reds) and the #2 or #3 in the east (Marlins, Mets). Of course if just one team from the central or west do great, it may be okay. It takes two to have the wildcard get 89 wins or so. But at this point, there are still 10 or so teams with legitimate shots at 89 wins. If the Nats finish at that mark, it's entirely possible that they get edged out in a worst case scenario. For the Nats to miss out with 92 wins, it would take some amazing finishes by several other teams.

Positively Half St. said...

It is tempting to include the loss of Strasburg for a month to the innings limit. However, because we are talking about getting to the playoffs, and not winning the title, it isn't quite so big a deal. Strasburg has been worth 2.4 WAR over the first half, or about 0.8 per month. John Lannan was worth 0.8 WAR for the entire year in 2011. If those held, you would think that replacing Strasburg with Lannan in September might cost them 1 game. One game could certainly make the difference, but it might not be catastrophic.

+1/2St.

Harper said...

I forget the exact numbers but I think in the NL WC history maybe 1 89 win team would have missed the playoffs in the 2 WC scenario. 88 is the tipping point. Win 88 games and you could still get knocked out, win 89 and you are in almost every single time.

So basically Nats a couple games over .500 = 89 or more wins = playoffs. Unless this is THAT season where something crazy happens.

Harper said...

+1/2 - yeah Strasburg missing starts will hurt but not that much. For a real impact to be felt they need to lose a starter NOW.

Donald said...

On the plus side, the Nats play more home games in the second half and should be getting better with the addition of Werth and Storen. They are better than last year and played that out as a .500 team. So no of this is likely, but here's how it could play out:

The Braves snag Grienke and push past the Nats to capture the east. That's not too implausible. The Dodgers rebound with Kemp returning and surge ahead to take the west. The Reds take the central. The Nats have one or two longish losing streaks while playing pretty good otherwise to finish out 42-37 for 91 wins total. Not too shabby.
But the Giants pitching solidifies and they reach 92 wins by going 46-30 to snag the first WL. The streaky Pirates go 43-34 to finish with 91 wins too, but edge the Nats due to the better head to head record.

What makes this hard to picture is that it requires Reds, Pirates, Braves, Dodgers and Giants to all finish with 91 or more wins. Plus, we win the head-to-head against the Reds and probably the Giants and Braves.

Anonymous said...

Ok so we have established that the "Worst-Case" scenario is that we miss out on the post season. It is also established that it would take a horrific collapse that we should see coming. If the Worst-Case conditions are realized, we will not be surprised and our Washingtonian upbringing has us prepared for such a disaster. Nothing we have not seen before. So on to the positives: The Nats will be hosting games 1 and 2 of the World Series thanks in no small part to the scoreless middle innings appearances of Gio and Stephen last night. =)

Jeff Hayes said...

I'm still confident we'll win the division but I'm most worried about Donald's scenario where the Braves (or Mets) add Grienke (or maybe Coles) and surge past us not because we have a long losing streak but simply because those two teams do better. Afterall, we are only four games ahead of the Braves and four and a half games ahead of the Mets. We still have 10 games to play against the Braves (seven home and three away) and 12 games to play against the Mets (six and six).

Fortunately we'll know pretty soon what our prospects are for the second half. If we come out and win a majority of the games against the Marlins, Mets, Braves, and Mets again, then we'll expand our lead over our division rivals and it will create more space to absorb a "worst case scenario". Even if we only break even (or close to it) over that run, we're still in good shape.

Overall, our second half opponents have a collectively winning percentage of .487. The Braves' opponents are similiarly at a .488 winning percentage while the Mets' opponents are slightly above at a .506 winning percentage. So we shouldn't expect much help from an easier schedule. We're going to have to beat the Braves and Mets if we want any breathing room.

Anonymous said...

I'm all-in on Nats postseason baseball... if it doesn't materialize this year I'm gonna cry.

I've missed 10 or 11 games... and am enjoying seeing winning ball... but if they defy the odds and wind up blowing it I'm going to wind up on a three week bender.

Ben said...

What makes me happy is that even a sorta-bad case scenario where the Nats "only" win 88 games, that would mean two of (LOLmets/pirates/cards/dodgers) have to get to 89 wins (already assuming the better teams braves/reds/giants win their divisions). The Cards are really the only complete/good team in that group that I wouldn't be very surprised for them to make it to 89 so it is hard for me to not love the Nats chances.

Obviously I disagree with some other posters about how good the Mets and Dodgers are ... so I am going to go out on a very sturdy limb and predict both teams play under .500 in their remaining games (What the dodgers get to play the padres/rockies 18 times in the 2nd half!? whatever, I am sticking to my prediction).

blovy8 said...

It'll be tougher if the Braves get Greinke, and I think they could. I agree that the cream could rise to the top in the other divisions for a bit after some trades are made.

It's also possible that our defense costs us a bit more, like a wild throw someplace by Harper, Morse playing too many catchable balls on a hop, A few of Zim's funky throws getting past LaRoche or his presumed caddy, Moore, a pitcher's brain fart on covering first or throwing away a bunt, conservative baserunning, maybe some bad calls at critical times, a couple of long thunderstorm rain delays to keep a starter from pitching the usual 6 innings, too many extra innings... Hell, bad luck on line drives and defensive positioning could do it. It's pretty easy to imagine dropping below 87 wins actually without really doing much differently, just timing it all in a more destructive manner. We did just lose two of three to Colorado after all.

Harper said...

Donald - yeah - it sounds sensible but if you look at where you end up (5 teams winning 91+ games) it doesn't feel right. That's only happened twice since the WC was started.

Anon - Think positive! Though I'd counter with - make that host games 1&2 of the Division Series, because of Gio and Stras being awesome everyday . Let the playoffs be the goal right now. Let the WS come later.

Jeff - "Plausible" Worst case is more what you say. Nats make playoffs but as WC - in dreaded 1 game playoff.

Anon - well benders can be fun? I don't think it'll come to that. As jeff notes by the 25th the Nats could have already made this scenario moot.

Ben - Dodgers play intra division guys 36 times a year there's a lot of games there. so 18 left yes, but they only have 3 games left vs Cubs/Houston. Arizona has 12.

blovy8 - I didn't mention just pure bad luck but that's always a possibility. THe Nats go 8-16 in one run games in the second half. They could go 31-24 in all the other games and find themselves with 29-30 record just because. But you can't assume that or even plan it out. You just hope not to be that team

Donald said...

On the flip side, I wouldn't be surprised if Espinoza hit a bit more consistently going forward and Werth came back where he was to start the season. Plus we add Storen. The Phillies are going to be a bit better but they'll probably lose Hamels, so could be a wash. The Marlins just got a bit worse with the lose of Stanton. So we're already starting out the second half with a leg up, it seems. Thing is, some team is going to get hot and some team is going to tumble. I'm guessing for the Mets to tumble a bit. Is it the Cards who get hot? The Brewers or Diamondbacks? What's your mid-year guess on the ultimate division winners and WC's?

Anonymous said...

Still a long way to go. Here's my take for the East. We can rule out the Marlins with Stanton going down. I don't think the Mets will continue to play at the same level. The Phillies may improve in the second half, but they're done. The Braves might get hot (they normally do in the second half except last year). It's conceivable that they'll overtake the Nats. But seriously, I don't see it happening as long as the Nats play good to average ball the rest of the way.

Anonymous said...

Here's what I expect from the Nats offensively in the second half:
- Desi will regress a bit
- Espy will stay around the same
- LaRoche will stay around the same
- Zimm will level out just below career average
- Morse will settle at around .275 and 10 HR the rest of the way
- Harper will fade (finish around .260 or so)
- Lombo will stay about the same
- Werth will hit .250-.275, 5 HR when he returns
- Catcher spot will stay around the same
- Bench will improve slightly (Tracy back, add Marerro?)

PItching:
- Stasburg....who knows.....the league seems to be catching up to him. He'll be shut down eventually.
- Gio will regress a bit, but not much. He probably won't win 20 games.
- JZimm will stay about the same
- EJax will stay about the same
- Detwiler may fade but not much
- Bullpen stays around the same, but maybe the middle guys regress a bit

Overall, the Nats are at least a .500 team in the second half.

QuietStormX said...

I'm reading this and saying, What! Play the games while it looks like the rest of the offence are heating up. Don't worry about what might happen. The Nationals are doning it right. Not really expected this season, just hoping to do better than last season for progress. It's a joy watching the games and progress at positions. I wish people just get off of what might happen to Stephen Strasburg. If he stays strong maybe he'll go on and on? I feel the Nationals won't fall off like some are hoping or wish. Many fear playing the Nationals home or on the road.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Lee said...

Eh...I'll leave at winning division games. We keep doing that and we largely control our fate. The next 14 games are in division. Not to steal your material Harper, but I'll go with:

3-1 in Miami
2-1 vs. Mets
2-2 vs. Braves
1-2 in NY

That's 8-6 and keeps the rest of the division at bay. Do that or anything better and we can probably move "worst case" to settling for the WC. 7-7 would be acceptable; diagnosis: "wait and see". 6-8 would be the wrong way to start and a possible harbinger of the worst case. And I really don't want to discuss 5 or less wins.

Jeff Hayes said...

Anonymous - What's your basis for making those assessments on second half performance? Adam Kilgore wrote a very interesting piece recently on how pitchers are approaching Harper. He is receiving the third fewest fast balls per at bat in MLB. Fewer than half his pitches (45.9%) are fastballs. Only Soriano (44.7%) and Josh Hamilton (45.2%) have seen fewer fastballs. For comparison, Mike Trout has seen the third most fastballs in MLB, 66.2%. Harper's willingness to swing at breaking balls outside the zone has given pitchers more confidence that they don't have to roll the dice by throwing him fastballs. But if you listen to Harper talk about the need to take more walks, he knows it. Once he does that, pitchers will have little choice but to throw him more fastballs, so long as the middle of the order continues to make it difficult to pitch around Harper.

And why won't Gio win 20 games? It would be helpful to know why you believe that. He's already won 12 half way through the season. Boswell's piece in this morning's WP highlighted the difference that Davey and Catty are having on our pitches. According to the piece, Nats pitchers, including Gio, are the freshest of any MLB staff right now. Boswell writes "No Nats starter ranks in the top 40 in MLB in number of pitches thrown and no reliever is in the top 40 in appearances. In fact, only one Nat is in the top 65 in pitches thrown." He notes that in pitches and innings, Gonzalez (42nd, 61st), Jackson (84th, 63rd) and Strasburg (72nd, 73rd) are way down the list, especially when you consider that in most other measures of effectiveness, they are all top 20 pitchers. Fangraphs is projecting Gio to win 20 games.

WiredHK said...

Barring injury, Gio has 15-16 more starts in him before the end of the year. If he wins less than 8 of those starts (to miss 20 wins), I'd be very surprised (and concerned about what that meant for our record).

To me, the real worst case is Gio gets injured around the time SS is shut down (or just before it). If we're in a tight race in September and missing our pair of aces, it's not a stretch to think we miss out on the post-season (especially if we start semi-sluggish after the ASB).

Do I think that will happen? No. But it's a realistic worst-case....

Harper said...

Donald - Espy actually has been pretty much himself after April.
I'd guess Nats, Reds, Giants with the Braves and the Cards in the 1 game playoff

Anon #1 - I've said a couple times I think Nats fans are too quick to dismiss the Mets. That being said I don't see them making the playoffs. I do agree the Braves are the only conceivable team to pass the Nats for the division.

Anon #2 - Nothing crazy there. I think that team is just a few games worse than the team we've seen so far. Easily a division winner.

QSX - I don't think the Nats will fall off but I like to address all possibilities. If you like tomorrow can be "Here how the Nats win 100 games" actually that's not a bad idea.

Lee - but 5 or less would be exciting, right? I'd go 2-2 in Miami and 3-1 v the Braves just because of how they've matched up this year. Still the same outcome 8-6 and actually better because it moves the Braves back. That series is really a key. If they can go 3-1 or 4-0 that keeps the one team any of us think can pass the Nats at arm's length.

Jeff - In Anon's defense I'll say it's one thing to talk about walking more, it's another to do it.

jeff/Wired

8 wins doesn't sound like alot but when you factor in no-decisions it's not a slam dunk by any mean. The average Nats starter would get 11 decision in 16 starts. I'd give Gio 12... so 8-4? Yeah that sounds right. Then again ZNN and Strasburg have pitched at a high level and in 17 starts have gotten 5 and 9 wins. Personally think 20 on the nose would be my guess, but if that's the case you can't be surprised if he ends up with "just" 19.

Jeff Hayes said...

Not to beat a dead horse, especially since this post has already been supplanted by another post, but if we have learned one thing so far about Bryce Harper, its been his ability to adapt as a player. I'm confident he'll show more plate discipline in the second half. Keep in mind that I'm also a recovering optimist (the product of being a Redskins fan).

Harper said...

Jeff - I try to keep my eye on the last two posts, if only because I tend to put them out around early lunchtime so some don't see it until the next morning depending on reading habits.

I have no doubt he'll adapt. My only question is if he'll adapt this year, as he plays his 120th game and is facing Dickey then Santana then Hudson in the heat and humidity of mid August.

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