That's what I'm looking for over the next 8 games. If I don't see both I'll be disappointed in the team.
The 6 wins is easy to understand. Four game set at home versus a middling Marlins team given up for dead. You can't split that. Three wins at least. Four game set at Houston versus the worst team in the National League. If you haven't noticed the Astros are 2 and 18 in their last 20 games. 3 and 27 in their last 30. 3 and 27! Because it's away I won't give the Nats a sweep but again - a split is unacceptable. So 6 wins. 5 would be disappointing but you'd get over it. 4-4 seems ok but it's kind of a disaster.
The "lot of runs" thing is not blatantly obvious but it's just as understandable. Since the break the Marlins have had the 14th worst ERA in the NL from their starters and they traded away one of their better ones in Anibal Sanchez. The Astros have had the 15th worst starter ERA and they traded away their best one, Wandy Rodriguez. The Astros have also had the worst relief ERA. (The Marlins have actually done ok with this). These are two staffs pitching horribly.
On the flip side the Nats have cooled off a bit after a super hot July. They were 2nd in runs in the NL for the month, 4th in OPS. Some people have taken that to be the new normal as the Nats finally start getting all their pieces back healthy. And yet they've scored 4 runs or less 5 times in the last 6 games, scored 5 runs total in the Phillies series, and after only being shut out once in the first 91 games they've been shutout 3 times in their last 13.
The truth is July was almost certainly "that month" - meaning the best month the offense is going to have all year where as much is going right as you could possibly hope for. Ryan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, Roger Bernadina, and Ian Desmond (who played almost half of July) had probably their best lines of the year. Adam LaRoche probably isn't going to hit .300 for a month again this year. Mike Morse didn't have a special month but it was a very good one, in line with how'd you like him to hit all year long. Catcher hit poorly but that's to be expected. The only one that hit worse that you would have thought is Bryce Harper. It was great month, but it was likely unrepeatable.
But as I've said before the Nats offense doesn't have to be great. It can be average and with their pitching the Nats can still win enough games (see last night). With Werth back, the lineup is one Desmond away from the optimal one it can have this season. It should be about average right now. An average offense against the Marlins and Astros should be scoring above average runs. 5+ a game. That's what I'd like to see. 40+ runs for these 8 games. Show me that in a normal period, when half the offense isn't at their best, that you are good enough.
I think they'll do it. I think the pieces are there and the competition is that weak. But I'm watching nonetheless.
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13 comments:
Harper,
Long time, first time I agree. I think they should go 6-2 a sweep in one if the sets would be very nice though.
Whats with all the hoopla surrounding Strasburg's pending innings limit? Sure it will hurt a little bit but, I still love this rotation. Zimmerman and Gonzales have arguably been having better seasons and our bullpen has Storen back. (His ERA is a little ugly but i think he just needs to get warmed up to the major leagues again.)
Harper your're doing it again, setting us up to fail. Now if we dont go 6 - 2 we suck and if we do go 6 - 2 its do big deal.
The Braves play 7 games during this same stretch (3 at home against the Astros, 3 on the road against the Phillies and the first of a 3 game series at the Mets). You'd have to guess they're shooting to go 6-1 or 5-2 at the worst. So even if the Nats go 6-2, it probably won't move the standings much. If they go 5-3 and the Braves go 6-1, they'll be only 1 game back.
It sure would be nice to go into the upcoming series with the Braves having a comfortable lead (4 or more games) but it's not looking like it at the moment. When do we get to coast, again?
Anon #1 - Because he's the best and you don't see contending teams usually accept getting much weaker down the stretch. The hoopla will die down a bit as we get closer to shut down (assuming the Nats stay in first) because like you say the rotation is still very good without him, but it'll kick back-up for the playoffs.
Anon #2 - Ummm ok. "NATS WILL BE LUCKY TO WIN ONE AGAINST THESE POWERHOUSES!" Better?
5-3 wouldn't suck, but 4-4, at this point vs those teams - that would. I wouldn't call 6-2 no big deal. True, it doesn't actually show the Nats as being awesome or anything, because of how bad these two teams are, but it likely means the Braves haven't gained any more than a game (and maybe lost ground) and the Nats are 8 games closer to the end of the year. Any good week is a big deal at this point.
Donald - When the Nats win that series vs the Braves, assuming the lead is big enough. I say if they are up by 4+ after that... that's asking for a lot for Braves to overcome.
I actually think the Braves will struggle a little against the Phillies. Braves have been pretty hot lately and are due for a cool down.
In any case, I keep having to remind myself how incredible it is to watch the Nats in a real live pennant race. I've been watching every game like it's a playoff since June. I have entirely ignored the approach of football season and I couldn't be happier about it.
They might face a few guys they've never seen, so I'm dubious about the offensive explosion, but I think Harper will hit better, and Strasburg is due for another homer. But I guess they've got to start taking advantage of the struggling teams, and it's not like they'll see six different pitchers a game like they would in September. The good thing is while the lead won't be comfortable, it's unlikely the pressure will be really on them yet. I think coming out of this, four games would be a good lead, regardless of what the record in the games is.
Kurt Suzuki? See, this is what you get when you ask for catchers.
And the scary thing is, 2012-version Suzuki is still an upgrade offensively and defensively on Flores to this point in the season. @_@ (of course, if we could specify, say, 2008 Suzuki to show up and play instead, that would be genuinely nice).
1-1 so far. The nicest thing lately has been that Lannan's spot starts in these doubleheaders have been quite good. Strasburg he isn't, but except for that one meltdown year he's always been a perfectly servicable #3-4 starter type. If they do shut down Strasburg, it will not be the end of the world, especially during the regular season.
3 of Gio's last 4 starts have been mediocre to poor. Count me as worried, although perhaps this is a normal correction to his mean during the year. Still, this club needs him to be very good down the stretch in order to make the playoffs. Right now, plainly, he is struggling....
Last night Gio wasn't that bad, though: 8 IP, *zero* walks, no HRs, 10Ks. He only had one bad inning (five singles in the 6th) and a 3-run "bad inning" isn't really awful at all. The problem was, the offense let him down hard. Swap the offensive output for the two games and we're talking this morning about how awful it is that Lannan will replace Stras instead of worrying about Gio's performance...
Dezo - I don't disagree (and actually didn't see the game as I'm out of town), although just looking at really his last 8-9 games, it seems like he is throwing out at least very average (or worse) efforts every other start. Maybe last night was better than I give him credit for, but I'd be surprised if anyone is going to argue that he looks really good in the past 6 weeks. I guess I'd feel more comfy if I saw him being more consistent.
Anyway, like I said, maybe this is just a normal course correction to the mean. But I'm a tick worried...
There wont be any coasting... schedule the rest of the way is pretty rough... especially seven against STL... and tough slate of NL East games...six w ATL and 9 with PHI we also get SF and LAD... hold on tight Nats fans!
There wont be any coasting... schedule the rest of the way is pretty rough... especially seven against STL... and tough slate of NL East games...six w ATL and 9 with PHI we also get SF and LAD... hold on tight Nats fans!
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