Nationals Baseball: Mailbag Monday Eve

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Mailbag Monday Eve

A gift from me to you on Christmas Eve.  Merry Christmas!  (question wording was mine so don't blame the commenters)

What is the future of Tyler Moore? (Watts, Schiff)

I've said before that I don't think much of Tyler Moore's future. You just don't strike out that much and walk that little and find success in the majors very often. You might bring up that Mike Morse is our poster child for this line of thinking and he's had success but here's the thing

Moore: (age 21-25) 3.5 Ks per B
Morse: 2.7 Ks per BB

Morse in the majors - 3.9 Ks per BB

That doesn't bode well for Tyler. (not to mention the .225 / 283 / .494 line in the 2nd half) Now maybe he won't see his strikeout ratio increase, it didn't during his first time out. And maybe even at his normal high level of Ks to walks he can buck history and put up productive seasons, Morse has up until now. But even if you don't believe in history (even though it's proven right more often that not), even if you don't believe in fancy stats (ditto), even if you take the strict view that what you hit in the minors has no bearing on how you do in the majors (even though it's pretty standard thinking by nearly everyone involved in the game that it does). Even if you believe all that just look at how the Nats are treating Moore. He is not part of the first base plans right now. He's not considered the next big thing. If you don't believe everything above AND you don't believe the people that are seeing him and evaluating him everyday... well I don't know what to tell you.

What does that mean for Moore?  Well he'll be exactly what he should be, a decent lefty off the bench that can play corner OF or first base and more importantly can hit a homer in a pinch hit situation. His power is real and because of that he's exactly the type of guy you want on the bench.  And because he's cheap he should be able to fill that role for the next few years so the Nats don't have to go out and get that guy.

Is he tradeable... right now not really. Pretty much all the majors see him as a bench guy so he's not getting much back. Now if he hits .270-.280 next year... that changes things.

What sort of progression do you see for BamBam with the bat and in the field? (watts)
I'm on the conservative side with Bryce.  A slash line like .285 / .370 / .500?  Around 30 homers?  I think I've said it before.  The closer we get to the start of the season the more serious other looks at him will be and the easier it will be to see if I'm way off, but that is my conservative estimate. The guy could hit .300+ and 40 homers, easy.  I think he will... just not next year.  Remember if he only hits like he did last year that's a Top 30 offensive season.

In the field, the question is different now. He won't be playing CF. Personally I didn't see much progression happening, but I'll admit I'm not an expert here.  Now that he's not in center though it won't matter.  Personally I would LOVE to see him in RF.  Werth has a nice arm but can you imagine the effect Bryce's gun would have on those first to third attempts?

Is Gio postseason worrying?  If not for the regular season than the postseason? (watts)

I can understand the concern.  Gio had terrible control last postseason, walking 11 in 10 innings and his control was one of the things people worried about coming into the season.  But personally I wouldn't worry about it for the regular season.  Even if he reverts to full A's mode wjen it comes to control he still would be a very good pitcher. He gave up fewer hits, struck out more, and more importantly gave up A LOT less homers.  A fwe more baserunners won't overcome all that. So if you want to watch something - watch that. Everyone expected that HR/FB% number to go up, instead it went down.  Can he keep THAT up?

Now will it matter next postseason?  Wellllll maybe.  His walks have seemed to go up a bit at the end of the season the last few years.  Is it indicative of a tired arm that'll be even more tired in the majors? Or is it just a fluke of the numbers? Personally I wouldn't worry about until it's time to worry about it. 207 innings as opposed to 200 innings shouldn't make a difference.  Now 220? Ok maybe but ""Will Gio still be effective in the World Series" is a worry I'm willing to have.

Who are the best trade chips for the Nats, you know, if they want to make a major deal.  Desmond and Espinosa seem like good candiates. Is anyone overvalued? Leave Strasburg and ZNN out of it  (wally)

I'd say the Nats best trade chips for a major deal would be as follows Desmond, Rendon, Espinosa, Zimmermann, Storen.
Desmond and Storen are the ones likely to be overrated.  Storen for the whole "closers aren't actually all that important, but people think they are" reason. Desmond because he was a kind of error-prone guy that didn't hit until last year. You'd be selling high if you sell on Desmond. Plus you'd be selling high on a position you think you could fill (with Espy and maybe Rendon at 2nd)  Then again, he's a short stop that hit .290 with 20+ homers last year. You better be pretty sure you are selling high if you are selling that. 

Rendon's AFL showing plus his age and contract situation makes him very desirable.

Despite Espinosa's weak season, the fact he's a position player, who fields a hard position to fill with skill, and he has an extra year of team control put his over Zimm. Given that is was a weak season though it's doubtful he'd be overvalued.  You'd be selling low on Danny.

Zimm being a starter puts him over Storen.

This all being said I don't see any (more?) major deals happening this off-season.  And anything after next year, even a year is too far in advance to guess.

Given his contract and skill level, could they trade ZNN for a #1 type pitcher.  They haven't signed him to an extension yet so he's still super cheap. (wiekcing)

Zimmermann is an interesting case because he'll be a free agent before Stras and Gio and given his skill level he'll be earning a lot more than Detwiler. Assuming Gio and Stras are still moving along, you are looking at putting out a lot of money for a guy that's probably your third best pitcher

Thing is if they don't trade him this offseason I'm not sure when they would.  After this season you'd be trading one season of a great pitcher for two years of ZNN? Even with another prospect that doesn't seem like a great deal. And I'm not sure who would be traded for (David Price is great and potentially on the block. He's also a FA in 2016 so relatively cheap before then... relatively)

Personally, I'd expect an extension to be worked out here and them to let Strasburg walk when push comes to shove (to concentrate on re-signing Bryce)

Line-up order. please (jacquez)
My expectations would be

Span
Werth
Zimmerman
Harper
LaRoche/Morse
Desmond
Espinosa
Catcher
P

I think Davey would like to move Werth down but would hesitate to move Desmond out of the 6th hole. That hamstrings Davey a bit  Given that and the fact I think he'd more like to see what Bryce can do in a run-producing slot,Werth is kind of stuck.  Though I won't rule nother possibilty with more left right balance :

Span
Harper
Zimmerman
LaRoche
Werth
Desmond
Espy
C
P

But it only works with LaRoche back and really if Bryce breaks out next year that's pretty much the end of this

OK that should be all the questions except for one from Hayes that really is less pertinent right now I think. so hit me up with more

Gmail: Natsoftheroundtable

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree Moore isn't in the Nat's plans for everyday; I think the brass is waiting to see what happens with Marrero. One of them is trade bait this year, the other is gone next.

Chaos.....did I really ask about trading ZNN? On second thought, I can see him going for a basketful of prospects to re-stock next year.

blovy8 said...

Span
Werth
Harper
Zim
Morse
Desmond
Espinosa
Suzuki/Ramos

I know the 3rd spot is overrated, but maybe it suits Harper's aggressive approach.

Clip&Store said...

About the Zimm, Stras, Harp resigning part..

I was kinda thinking along your lines if, for no other reason, the fact that position players are less volatile (relatively speaking). And I don't think we have the budget, nor does really anyone outside of a handful of markets, have the budget to keep Stras AND Harper.

So do you essentially expect that down the line we make a huge push for Harper to spend his career here, rather than Stras? I feel like at least one would need to stay or there would be a revolt on S Capitol St.

Zimmerman11 said...

Merry Christmas!!! We'll have to wait until October to see if Santa got me what I asked for.

Donald said...

If LaRoche re-signs, does that necessarily mean that Morse gets traded? Rizzo has been reluctant to get rid of a player with some value if the deal isn't good enough (see: Lannan). Would he keep Morse on the bench for another year rather than using him to restock A or AA with pitching prospects? If he did that, who would be the odd man out, then.

Assuming Morse is either traded or starting at 1B, I have the bench consisting of Lombo, Tracy, Moore, Bernadina and Ramos. Would Lombo, Moore or Bernadina fetch a better return in trade than Morse and would you consider that?

dsk said...

Good post on Moore.

Harper said...

Chaos - something like that. He's probably the most "tradeable" to the Nats given that he comes up for $$$ soon but still don't see it. See them trying a low-ball long year offer this year.

blovy 8 - really there isn't a bad lineup with these guys. (Ok there is but not a reasonable one)

C&S - Yes. I think at the same time they are letting Stras walk they'll try to sign Bryce to a big long extension. That way they can point to that and say "That's where the money went!"

Z11 - Happy New Year!!! Santa is a bit busy in October. Lots of people asked for the same thing.

Donald - not necessarily, but he has more value in what he could bring back then as a bat off the bench, I'd think.

As for a better deal, it's hard those guys all have much better contract sits than Morse but have only really produced for 1 year and didn't have great minor league track records. I guess maybe Lombo? Moore is limited because of his position. Bernie because of his age.

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