Foster Griffin - the actual find?

There was an article somewhere recently about the turn around for Littell and Mikolas.  I kind of dismiss that because major league pitchers aren't going to go out there and throw like trash for 30 games. There are ups and downs and adjustments and injuries and chances are if you started slow you'll look better. I don't pretend those guys aren't what they are. 

But Foster Griffin was a pull from overseas. A former 1st rounder that couldn't control anything that now is mixing like 8 different pitches for success.  Is he real?

I want to say yes but that HR rate is what's keeping me from doing that. Giving up a homer plus every game is not a recipe for success.  His last 5 homers have been solo shots where as that was more like half his early homers. Yes he's keeping guys off base with limited walks, but his hit rate isn't that great and that first set makes more sense to me. 

What's that mean?  It means that we should be looking at a future around where his ERA was before this solo shot barrage.  4.00ERA+.  But hey - that's STILL a find. 

I don't mean OMG they found a star, but they did grab a cheap guy that isn't just filling in innings at the back of the rotation. An ERA of say 4.15  puts him around the 75th best starter in the game. That's a legit 3/4 type arm. 

Littell and Mikolas are rotation fillers. Don't think that isn't important. Having a slight turnaround from "maybe they should quit baseball" to "ok as a 5" is important for the Nats because the bullpen is so bad. An inning more of under 5.00 ERA ball matters to this team. But maybe you can dredge this up from the minors or any rando free agent. That's what they did this year and the last few (Irvin, Parker). Finding a guy you need in your rotation or else you take a big hit is something else. And I think Griffin is that guy

Monday Quickie - Under the radar time

 Sometimes a team just needs to be left to do what they are doing with no scrutiny.  There isn't a real tell if the Nats are that type of team but it is clear they have been working out of the spot light for longer they might have in a typical sports year.  However this year we had a NY title in basketball with all those stars out, we had a crazy start to the Stanley Cup, and now we have the World Cup going on.  In baseball the best teams are the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees (and yes the Brewers).  The media air has been sucked out of the room. The Nats aren't on anyone's mind.

Let's put it some other baseball ways.  

The Mets spent a ton and are almost certainly playing themselves out of the playoffs. The Red Sox might be the 2nd worst team in baseball (probably not and the Rockies aren't going to let anyone take the worst title from them). The Pirates with Paul Skenes are in the thick of the playoff hunt. The White Sox are leading the AL Central.  The WHITE SOX.   

The aforementioned Skenes has a 2.85 ERA and 100Ks already and who cares.  Cam Schlitter has a 1.82 ERA, as does Christopher Sanchez who shut out teams for 5 games in a row.  Both are looking up at Jacob Misiorowski who might be breaking through the media ceiling a bit by having a 1.34 ERA and 131 strikeouts while throwing the ball regularly well over 100 MPH over his starts. And all this while Shohei in his starts just went over 1.00 ERA.

It's not hitting like it might have hit in 2025.  

So if the Nats ARE a team that need a little peace and quiet to keep going, they have it for a few more weeks.  

We are two weeks into June.  Keibert isn't hitting as he was but he's hitting fine.  CJ isn't hitting like a star but he's hitting ok. Mead isn't hitting anymore but it's not embarrassing.  And in their place Lile is hitting and Garcia is hitting and most importantly Wood is a superstar again. .281 with 20 homers and almost 60 walks.  He's going to hit 40 plus homers. He's is leading all NL Players in Offensive WAR*, and is in a battle with Alvarez in Houston for best bat in baseball this year. Carrying this team. 

The pitching is not better but they are also covering for themselves with better play here and there.  Sure it just keeps them at "pretty bad" but with the offense as it is, that's all it needs to be. 

The Nats are doing what they are doing and aren't stopping just yet.  Take notice, even if everyone else isn't. 

*Pete C-A is hitting pretty well and plays amazing defense, and of course you aren't going to catch Shohei in WAR unless you pitch 

Are playoffs a possibility?

I don't see the Nats as a .500 team on talent. 

BUT here they are. Which begs the question for me - maybe this is a season where this level of talent gets you to .500. And there are seasons where .500 ish can get you to the playoffs.  Does this seem like a good fit for 2026? 

Currently the Nats are a game out of the Wild Card, behind two teams and slightly ahead of... well most of the NL. What do the adjusted standings (trying to take luck out of what happened so far) tell us? You can choose which one you like but looking at the various projectsion the Nats are where they are supposed to be.  Maybe a touch more 33-34 than 34-33 but let's not quibble.  We talked about why I think they'll end up a little below that but what about the other teams.  Is the NL East weirdly underperforming? The NL in general? I can't really say that  as you'd expect with groups that big it looks like a mixed bag.  So there's not a good reason to think luck will swing for the Nats opponents. 

What about though the ones that matter - the ones in the playoffs? The idea here is the Nats look to be pretty stable.  If someone ahead of them has a worse projected record than the Nats they might fall past them. On the other hand someone chasing the Nats could catch them if the numbers say they've been unlucky. 

The Braves, Dodgers, Brewers are all out of reach as expected. Things can change but right now they are better than the Nats and have a better record. The gap should grow, not shrink. 

The Cardinals and Phillies are in and based on these numbers are catchable. The Cardinals aren't better than the Nats, but aren't worse. Their advantage is simply being where they are right now. The Nats have to catch them. The Phillies are more in danger, powered to their record by a 14-5 one-run game record as opposed to the stats. The Nats have a good shot of catching Philly if they play like they have this year. The question there is do you take the year as a whole or ignore the terrible start?  If you put that behind the Phillies, they probably are in the Cardinals area - not great but good enough to hold that advantage. 

Arizona and San Diego, tied for the 3rd spot right now. Both look worse than the Nats for the season. Not a bad chance to catch them at all. They do get to feast on the Rockies though. 

Just ahead of the Nats are the Cubs and Pirates. This may be where the problem lies for the Nats. These two look like teams that should do much better. So while the Phillies, D-Backs, and Padres might flub the last two WC spots, it's the Cubs and Pirates who'd the numbers say you should bet on. 

Behind the Nats are Cincy and the Marlins.  Cincy appears to be a mirage even at this modest record. The Marlins though... are kind of real? This is weird.  I don't know.  I can believe in James Wood / CJ Abrams MVP pair a lot easier than Xavier Edwards / Otto Lopez. But I think the Marlins, real or not, are in the same sort of fragile boat the Nats are. There isn't obvious depth.  If one key guy goes down it could get ugly. There's a lot of variance here, too much for me to say, yeah they'll catch the Nats. 

Finally there's the Mets, not buried far enough to be out of it, but they haven't been good and something would have to change for this team to catch the Nats. It certainly could but the numbers so far suggest lots of other possibilities first. 

So looking at the way the season has gone so far. The Nats have been a .500 team and if they can keep that up they COULD make the playoffs but it's likely they'd be the first or second team out. It's not out of the realm of possibility though.  We'll see how this all changes around the All-Star break. 

What about the pitching?

The pitching - well it's not very good but we can't just go ahead and make assumptions that it'll stay that way.  Maybe it will get better! (or worse!) 

About a month ago I looked at the starters and tried to figure out who was "real" there. I said Irvin could be a poor innings eater and Litell really was bad.  Well May has not been kind to Irvin.  He might have broke. On the other hand Litell looked much better. I said I didn't know about Miles and I still don't. Mikolas has been a weird mixed bag, shutting down ATL for 5 then two starts later getting pounded by MIA. I do think we still don't know what this guy is from capable mid-rotation guy to coaching high school baseball. I said Foster Griffin wasn't an ace (he's not) and Cavalli should be better (he has been) 

I think it means the starting pitching can maintain it's current "not very good but maybe good enough not to drag the team down" trajectory. Cavalli is an actual not back of the rotation major league starter.  Four the rest of the four, I'd say something decent is there each time around from Litell, Griffin, Mikolas, and the last spot while also two not so decent things and a bad thing. That's a below average rotation but one that 2 out of every 5 days is good enough and you might get lucky another 2 with this offense. 

The relief pitching hasn't been good either and there's a decent argument it should get worse with Schultz, Lovelady, and Beeter seeing important innings and all should get worse based on stats. To me though if Varland, Lord, and Ribalta are real that's enough to hold down your wins. 

Again we're not looking for the pitching staff to win, we're looking for them to hold place.  They are currently one of the worst staffs in baseball but not the complete drag the Cubs or Giants rotations are.  I think they can hold that. The relief staff is decidedly belwo average but not game losing... I think they might be a little worse that that actually. Just more guys who are doing better than you'd expect. Maybe you can dial that in.  It's hard to say because if one position is still in the "it's early" stage - it's relief pitching. A couple bad outings for a guy who throws 17 innings can really screw things up.  So while I THINK they might be worse than that, it's what I'm least confident about. 

Where does this leave the Nats as a team?  

I think it's a team who's bats and staff are both a little overperforming.  They've basically earned their .500 record 62 games in but I'd be surprised if they matched it in the final 100.  But also 40-60 would be a surprise.  45-55 makes more sense to me which puts this at a 76 win team. Is that good enough? 

I think cooling down right now might be best because people were getting excited in a "playoffs maybe possibly, if I squint my eyes?" way and that was an overreach. That isn't this team. I think what will get people properly excited is if the season ends with kids like King and Morales up and looking good and a sensible pitching plan for 2027 that isn't "find what scraps you can put behind Cavalli" 

Can the rest of the team keep hitting?

We took at look at James and CJ but there are seven other guys who make up the line-up. While stars can do a lot, they can't carry a dead two innings at the plate.  So the question is can these guys keep doing what they are doing? 

We'll start with two easy ones - Can Luis Garcia hit about average?  Sure!  Since 2022 that's what he's done so no reason to think the 26 year old is going to be any different now.  Can Nasim Nunez still stink? Sure! There's a reason the slick-fielding SS was available in the Rule V draft.  They never thought he could hit at the major league level. And he's proving them right. I suppose he could be worse, but for now we'll leave it as a yes - he can maintain a .200 BA with some walks and zero power. 

Ok what about the other 5+? We'll start with the three regulars from the start of the year. Lile, Young and Ruiz. 

Daylen Lile - the kid has taken a step back from last year when he played well enough to send Crews back to the minors and have Nats fans thinking maybe they found a star. Fans keep doing that.  Lile is hitting across the board worse and well we don't know what's coming next. It could be adjustments from him or it could be further adjustments from the other teams to really put him down.  Your first time up is a lot of "can you handle major league stuff".  The answer from Lile was yes. The next step is "can you handle major league PITCHING". The difference is instead of "Here's my fastball.Try to hit it" is the other team now tries to pitch to certain spots or in certain order. They know they can't get by with no effort.  Lile is sort of holding his own but also had a worse May than April so I'm not sure. I think he won't ever be a Nunez (who can't handle major league stuff) but could he slip under average? Possible. Jury is still out on a kidwith 100 major league games under his belt

Jacob Young - he's a glove first guy and whatever the Nats get from him at the plate is a bonus... assuming he's not terrible. Last year he was pretty close to that. He does not hit the ball very hard so before this year his game was hit it on the ground and leg it out. That works until it doesn't and "it doesn't" seemed to be 2025.  In 2026 he's lifting the ball more and hitting it a touch harder and the combination is getting him more non-legged out hits. As this is not based on anything crazy, I think he can keep this up. He's a slightly below average hitter and I think that holds.

Keibert Ruiz - I'd love to say yes, but the numbers don't back that up. He IS hitting better. Ruiz was always a guy that could hit the ball - he doesn't walk, he doesn't K, he hits the ball square. But he's also a slow catcher so if he doesn't generate power all this means is a lot of ground outs. This year he's getting the ball up and hitting it harder. More hits, more XBH, fewer ground ball outs.  But the numbers aren't too far different from 2022/2023. The differences really are - nothing soft and massive amounts of pull. I just don't see Keibert Ruiz .280+  20 HR hitter here.  I do think though he can land at an averageish level. Which would be good, but would also slow the offense down. 

And the others?  Mead, Tena, Vivas, Crews, House? 

Crews still looks bad so sure he can do that. I'd honestly expect him to do better eventually but these numbers suggest more time in AAA rather than helping out the Nationals. 

House was approaching average and I would have said yes, but the team seems to think no bc they sent him back down so what do I know. I'm not going against them 

Vivas, like these two and Lile, just don't have a lot of major league at bats to feel sure about anything.  He stunk in his first year up in 2024 but that seems like a fair amount of bad luck.  I don't think he's this decent, but he's probably closer to this than that. Maybe a half step worse? Stats really don't like him so I'll guess I'll settle there. 

Tena is someone that has done what none of these other guys have. He's really swinging the bat faster. But he's trading a bit more power for more Ks and fewer walks. He's been about this "playable below average" for a while now.  No reason to say he can't keep it up. The real question for DH is when do we see some of the kids who look like they can actually hit. 

Mead is probably then what things hinge on going forward. It sounds weird to say that but what do we have so far? Garcia, Lile, Young, Ruiz, Tena sitting around average, if you made me guess I'd go below rather than above. Nunez stinking. That's could work ok in a lineup with a couple of stars but you really do need one more bat here to be good. Wiemer was that bat to start but that was always just a lucky break from a journeyman.  Mead... Mead was a legit prospect who was always expected to hit. He just didn't. He swung the bat hard but couldn't connect in the right way and that made him press a little taking away from what was in the minors a keen eye with good contact.  But it seems to all be coming together now. I'm not going to say he can keep it up but also I'm not going to say he can't keep up something close. The numbers are that good. 

 

The end result of a look at the other guys is probably a full step back. As might be expected with the team unexpectedly doing so well, you have guys outperforming where they should be. The good news is though there's a lot of ok talent here - enough to fill in the gaps - and with the possible return of "average Ruiz" you really are just looking for a couple big bats. Yes that could be expensive and all but you do have them here in Abrams and Mead... maybe. 

I think where we come down is - Wood will keep rocking (probably unless he gets tired), the bulk of the lineup will do slightly worse but  not enough to keep the line-up from being above average. How much above average lands with CJ and Mead.  If these guys can hit like stars for the season, you have your Top 3 lineup carrying the below average staff. If they can't it's more around average. My take from the numbers says they can't BUT also not like in a "going to collapse" way. More like dropping down to slightly above average. Good enough to be fun. Probably not good enough to keep the team over .500.  For that they'll need some pitching help.