Offseason Position Discussion : Relief Pitching

Presumed Plan :  The closer will be Storen. The set-up man will be Clippard. As of now would expect Stammen, Barrett, Thorton and Blevins will all have roles, with Barrett likely to transition to the all-important SABR-maddening "7th inning guy" role. As discussed before Treinen is likely the long reliever, but could transition into a pen role. If so, expect to see Jordan in long relief.

Detwiler is likely a payroll casuality, but if not it pushes the long-relief guy to AAA. Xavier Cedeno or Rafael Martin could find themselves in the pen.

Reasoning on Presumed Plan : The Nats pen, like the starters, were very very good last year. Over the course of the season Soriano lost his closer role to Storen (1.12 ERA, 0.976 WHIP) and thus lost any chance the Nats would pick up his super expensive option. Clippard (2.18, 0.995) has performed well in set-up for years now. Barrett (2.12, 1.157) is the next in line for those end of the game roles. These are set.

Stammen (3.84, 1.266) is the Nats catch-all guy, getting single outs and more often pitching multiple innings.  He slipped a little in performance last year but not enough to upset his role. Thorton was perfect with the Nats and had a good year overall (1.75, 1.139) and the Nats need at least one lefty arm. Blevins had an off year (4.87, 1.238) but performed well as a lefty stopper and gives the Nats another lefty arm.

Ross Detwiler (4.00, 1.413) has pitched poorly the past couple years after dealing and recovering from a few injuries and pitched only twice after the 17th of September. He is one of the more expensive of the relief pitchers at 3M+ next year and given that his role is now undefined it's likely that he's to be either let go or traded.

His spot had pretty much already gone to Treinen (3.02. 1.279), who spent most of the year starting and got most of the spot starts. You'd figure he'd take the long-relief role in the pen. There has been talk of transitioning him to a more traditional pen role so if that were to happen the next logical person to step into long relief would be Taylor Jordan (4.76, 1.429). He was fighting for a 5th spot last year and had five starts himself but had a rough season which likely puts him into AAA again. 

If the Nats are into saving money and let more than just Detwiler go, either lefty Xavier Cedeno (2.53 , 0.950) or righty Rafael Martin (1.39, 0.806) could be the final part of the April 2015 pen.

Problems with Presumed Plan : The pen has been together for a while so it is getting older with no one under 27 next year. Stammen is slowing down (his K rate was well down), Barrett is an unknown (last year was first year), and Blevins had become a LOOGY after being effective against all batters in previous years. So, along with Thorton's age, there could be a significant drop-off.

The pen is also on the expensive side as it lacks those players early in their career. Clip, Storen, Thorton, Blevins, and Stammen will combine to cost the Nats roughly 18-19 million by my back of the envelope calculations. That's not chump change for a team that is looking to potentially sign some important cogs long term.

In long relief - it's always a question of how guys react to the role after being starters most of their career. Jordan seemed rattled by that possibility. Treinen was ok last year but his role wasn't as defined.

Also - Storen as the closer going into the playoffs will be a big question mark.

My take : The pen is good. Yes it is older but other than Thorton, who will be 38 next year, the oldest will be Blevins who at 31 this September is not at an age where you worry about abrupt drop-offs. So they ain't young but the ain't old either. The Nats have 2 shut-down arms. If they can find one more that should be enough to maintain the "good" status. So if Thorton has another good year, or Blevins bounces back, or Barrett keeps it up, that'll do.

The expense? Well that's just doing business. Plus there isn't any long term issues here. Thorton will likely not be re-signed and Clippard will likely walk cutting 10+ million from that chunk of salary for 2016. If the Nats can't dig into their pockets for one more year, if say they look to deal Clippard or Thorton, they don't deserve a decent pen.

Does Detwiler deserve to go? Probably not, but it's not a big loss for the Nats. Unfortunately if they do sell they are selling low (I still think Detwiler has some back of the rotation potential) but sellers they are. Treinen in long relief should be fine. Especially because there is a sense that he could be starting next year. It's not the plan mind you, but there are several ways it could work out that he's the #5 in April 2016, so he has something to pitch for.

Storen in the playoffs... we'll worry about it then.

Outside the Box Suggestion : Based on Matt Williams post-games there isn't a lot of room for outside the box usage patterns. Storen is his closer, Clippard his 8th, someone will be his 7th. You could deal Clippard, he is expensive and will likely go somewhere next season where he at least has the possibility of closing, but what good will that do? You aren't going to get a good young reliever back, you aren't going to sign an expensive reliever, and you have questions in the pen behind Clippard. All you've done is create a hole.

So instead go all in to create that Royals-esque back of the pen. Sign Andrew Miller to a silly 1 year deal. Like 1 year 12 million or something. Being one year and only being 30 it shouldn't effect his long-term signability beyond 2015. Install him firmly as the 8th inning guy and let him know he has first crack at closing if Storen struggles (as if the Nats ever gave a damn about Clippard) giving him potential to really maximize his value. If he gets a better offer elsewhere - try the same thing with Gregerson.
 

One place the Nats showed weakness in the playoffs in comparison to other playoff teams was the pen. That was due in part to the timing of Soriano's collapse and in part to the rigidness of Williams mind. Taking the decision making away from him in the last 3 innings, might be the way to go.