.500 is good enough for now so .500 is basically what the Nats are given us, splitting with the Cardinals before taking last night's game in semi-dramatic fashion. The Nats have been on and off for a couple weeks now, scoring both no runs (0,1,2 - 8 times) and a ton of runs (7+, 5 times) more often than scoring your typical amount of runs (3-6 runs, 3 times)
Could they go on a run now? They just took the first game in Philly and head to Cincy next so something like 5 of 6 should be completely possible. After that you have the reeling White Sox (3-13 in last 2+ weeks) then Philly again at home so 8/9 of 12 is right there for them. But I'll believe it when I see it. As far as I'm concerned these Nats are going no better than 7 of 12 against moderate competition until they do it.*
We are now at Memorial Day so where do things stand across the board?
Ramos
.326 / .370 / .514
May .333 / .387 / .577
Week .263 / .300 / .421
Cooling down ever so slowly from a peak of .372 / .407 / .558 in early May by hitting basically what you'd want him to since, about .260 with pop . There doesn't seem to be much worry here other than the every present threat of injury with Ramos. So far so good.
Zimmerman
.244 / .311 / .449
May .262 / .319 / .553
Week .261 / .292 / .652
Zimmerman has slowly moved from "not the first thing you are worrying about" to "the last thing you are worrying about" since the start of the season. He is starting to hit more like you'd hope for (.280ish with moderate patience) but he's on a bit of a home binge now (7 in past 3 weeks). As those balls fall back into the park (Zimm isn't hitting another 41 homers, sorry) the average and patience will drop a few points and will still be a little under where it "should be". But hey, not everyone can match or better expectations. Worry about this last.
Murphy
.395 / .426 / .621
May .413 / .421 / .651
Week .421 / .450 / .652
Murphy isn't going back to normal. He's still super hot. Enjoy. Next.
Espinosa
.198 / .298 / .309
May .206 / .284 / .351
Week .158 / .238 / .474
After a slow start, there were hopes that Danny was turning a corner. A long slow corner back to acceptable mediocrity. Nope. He's hitting with some pop but there isn't enough average there to matter. His glove is good but it's not too much to ask for a .220 average. Will Trea Turner be better? I don't know. When will we find out? I don't know that either. It's sometime this week they can call him up and probably get that extra year of service time. Right now, Espinosa is playing now at the whim of the team. I imagine he'll keep playing until the team starts to struggle.
Rendon
.262 / .348 / .390
May .279 / .380 / .481
Week .333 / .368 / .556
Much like Zimmerman Rendon is getting back to normal. The question for Rendon though is "where is normal"? He's only had one full season in the majors and thus, unlike with Zimm, we don't exactly know what we should expect or hope for. We are hanging on to that .287 20+ homer season he put up in 2014, but maybe he's matured beyond that? Or maybe that year was a fluke? We'll have to see. But I think we're in a good spot with Anthony. We don't have to worry about him.
Bryce
.242 / .415 / .535
May .200 / .422 / .363
Week .211 / .250 / .526
Hmmm. Hmmmm. Bryce had been one of the best hitters in baseball in April. Player of the month I believe. Then teams started walking him and he hasn't been the same since. Even now, when he's not being walked, he can't do much better. He's finally back hitting homers so maybe that will get him going? I won't say I'm worried, but I will say this is now over a month of poor hitting and it needs to turn around soon.
Revere
.179 / .232 / .275
May .180 / .237 / .281
Week .105 / .190 / .105
Revere has almost played a month now and... he doesn't strike out! I don't like what I'm seeing but a bad 3 weeks happens. He did have a nice run there fro a while (9-20 over 5 games) so it hasn't been a complete failure. Was that run a sign of things to come? I'd like to think so. We'll reevalute Ben in mid-June.
Taylor
.195 / .235 / .328
May .217 / .265 / .348
Week .286 / .286 / .429
I think we've learned that Taylor is a 4th OF. Played at specific times against specific pitchers and providing late game defense is the best way for the Nats to use MAT. I don't see him getting another chance to start everyday barring injury.
Werth
.225 / .281 / .396
May .235 / .272 / .367
Week .190 / .190 / .333
Probably the biggest problem for the Nats going into the summer. Werth hasn't hit well this season and when he does have runs of good play it's not dominant. He might have a run where a couple balls go over the fence... but all in all he isn't hitting well. Or he might have a run where a few balls find holes... but he isn't hitting with power. Mix these in with slumps and the fact that Werth no longer contributes on the basepaths or in the field and you have a guy that probably shouldn't be playing daily.
So offensively Muprhy and Ramos have been fine. Rendon and Zimm have seemed to work themselves out to a point. Espinosa hasn't kept it up from the first 2/3 of last season as hoped and is ready to be replaced, the question is only when the Nats want to pull the trigger. Werth hasn't recovered as hoped and is ready to be replaced, a much thornier question. Bryce is on the verge of being a worry, however one probably still useful and you don't consider replacing. CF is on the verge of being a worry and that one you would replace.
*for those that see that as a dig, also understand that I also think these Nats are going no worse than 5 of 12 versus the same level of competition until they do it.
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43 comments:
You know what's truly amazing? We think of Murphy as having the most glorious start to a season imaginable etc and Bryce having his worst month in a year or so....and even mired in this adjustment period of sorts (I think that's what it is....a sort of whiplash from being walked nonstop, not keeping his timing and sharpness, then suddenly being pitched to) and yet they have been about equal in terms of value to the extent you believe in WAR. (Both top 12 in WAR, because Bryce has actually played phenomenal defense and had by MLB standards outstanding offensive production so far---power and getting on base at borderline elite level despite the mediocre average and sub-Bryce hitting---compared to Murphys more empty but giant average (meaning no walks so comparable OBP to Bryce and bad defense). Just so wild that Bryce can play like garbage for 4 weeks and still be at easy all star level effectiveness over the 8 weeks of season. It speaks to how insanely explosive he is when he is hot. I think that he soon will be and that this stretch has been about adjusting his overall approach when he shouldn't. (Anecdotally, it seems like he has weeklong stretches when he is super patient and gets his pitch instead of forcing it, and then weeks where he swings at the first pitch that's best edges of zone, whether or not it's a hitters pitch.) Once he realizes he has some protection and gets more quiet at the plate, I think he will be fine. Nats fans should realize how rare it is (unheard of?) for a MLB hitter to go through a season without a real slump, the way Bryce did last year. He may have some peaks and valleys this year, but I would be surprised, barring injury, if he didn't end up around .280/.430/.600, 35+ homers.
Isn't Werth hitting .283 with a .333 on-base percentage over his last 15 games? I think we all see him as real potential hole in the lineup and contributes nothing in the field, but his clutch hit last night and the grand salami on Sunday have likely bought him an even longer leash on offense.
I think Bryce is now a real worry and it's really difficult to see the problem and how he can fix it. I have no doubt he is working on it everyday. We really need him producing on offense.
Hopefully, Murph can continue carrying the team on offense until the problem areas work themselves out.
I think the Nats should continue to tolerate Danny's offensive numbers so long as his defense remains what it is. As it stands the team probably is going to continue to rely on pitching and defense to get wins with only 3-4 runs scored a game. I just don't see Turners potential offensive upside to be worth the potential downside in defense.
Can we start the official Trea Turner watch? What on god's green earth are we waiting for? Kid just hit .500/.556/.938 over the weekend.
Call em up when they're hot and we're winning right?
I think the statement about Werth not contributing on the basepaths needs more nuance. He has a positive BsR, and last night he stretched a single into an extra base, and that ended up being the difference in the game (given that he wouldn't have made it home on the single if he was still on first). Maybe 'he doesn't steal bases' is more appropriate?
Danny is 8th in the league in DEF, so I am OK with his overall value. I'm not convinced that TT will be an overall upgrade at this point.
@JC - Danny's defense hasn't even been all that great this year, and all the scouts are putting Turner at roughly equivalent defensive ability. Yeah he may not make those flashy plays like Espy can pull, but he'll hold his own and then some compared to other SS in the league. Tack on his offense (I have to think he'll break the Mendoza line) and Turner is absolutely a better option in my book. And we can't really rely on getting wins with 3-4 runs if the Nats aren't actually getting that production. It's either a drought or a flood with RS, nothing in between. Granted I like it that way because it keeps the ball out of Papelbum's hands, but I'd prefer more floods and less droughts.
I appreciate the baseball analysis but can we all just take a minute to appreciate how amazing these blog titles are? Bravo, Harper!
So, what happens to Danny when Turner is up this time next week? Ticket to Syracuse? As someone else pointed out on this blog recently, according to Sverluga's book Danny is toxic when he isn't playing everyday.
Svrluga, that should read.
Revere's struggles may be the catalyst that gets Turner called up. If it were just about replacing Danny with Turner, the argument might still be there, but the urgency wouldn't be. But replacing Danny, AND getting a speedy lead-off guy to replace Revere might be enough. That is if Dusty would actually lead him off, which I'm not sure he would. Or maybe he bat the pitcher 8th and let Turner hit 9th, which would almost be the same thing.
@GCX - Well remember that shortstops get some DEF value just from the positional adjustment. So he's 9th in the league but still 5th among shortstops. By DRS he's at -1 which puts him squarely in the middle of the SS pack. His zone ratings are pretty good, and his double play numbers are good because he has a canon, but he's also had a few errors that keep him from the top of the list.
We know Turner doesn't have the arm, but there's reason to believe he'll match Danny in range and (at least so far this year) errors committed. OK maybe a few more errors, but it's called the freaking Mendoza line for a reason. We sit here and complain about the feast or famine nature of our offense. Well one of the best ways to change that is to replace your worst (yes, including Werth) hitter with someone who's hitting up a storm in AAA and has game changing speed.
Get him on the roster already
OK, I'll bite...
Is Rizzo the Arthur Hogget character?
OK, I'll bite...
Is Rizzo the Arthur Hogget character?
In years past it seemed that the Nationals had either one legitimate all star or a charity all star (every team is represented). However, this year not only do we have multiple all stars, but position players worthy of starting with Harper, Murphy and Ramos. Add Strasburg to the team, although he won't start, and the Nationals will be very well represented in San Diego this year.
In years past it seemed that the Nationals had either one legitimate all star or a charity all star (every team is represented). However, this year not only do we have multiple all stars, but position players worthy of starting with Harper, Murphy and Ramos. Add Strasburg to the team, although he won't start, and the Nationals will be very well represented in San Diego this year.
I think we the fans are Arthur Hogget. Can't complain. Want to, but can't.
I don't understand this view among many fans that Danny to Trea Turner won't be an upgrade. Do you understand you're talking about somebody hitting under .200? Who only walks at decent clip because he hits ahead of pitcher? There is basically zero chance of Turner being as bad on offense. zero. Let's be conservative and say he hits .240 with doubles pop and walks a normal amount. Huge upgrade! Difference between Danny and a merely below average MLB hitter is giant plus! Folks don't realize: there's no pressure on Turner to be a star or even a very good player. He can be merely a below average mediocrity and help the team. Danny Espinosa is about as bad an offensive player as anybody who plays every day in the majors. And no. He is not an elite defensive shortstop. Look at the errors and defensive metrics from his career at SS. He's average there defensively. Maybe a tick above. There is no scout in the world who doesn't think Turner won't hit .240-.250 in the major leagues right now if given a non tiny sample size. Do it.
@Bx- it's still a risk that TT won't hit or won't hit right away or will be a major degrade in the field from Danny. Perhaps, as Danny continues to struggle that risk will be worth it mitigated by Danny's poor performance at the plate( ie- TT is very unlikely to do the same or worst). That risk wasn't there at the beginning of the season, especially given TT's meh performance when he was called up late last year. The question is when do you call up TT? Is this all Danny can do?
Everybody (myself included) is high on SS's performance so far in 2016... look how similar his numbers are to one Mr Tanner Roark! Yes, lots less K's... Harper what do the fancy stats say? Particularly interesting given this would be TR's SECOND year of 2.50 ERA results.
PlayerW L ERA G GS S SO IP H R ER HR BB SO AVG WHIP
Schrz 5 4 4.05 11 11 0 0 73.1 58 33 33 15 22 90 0.217 1.09
Stras 9 0 2.69 11 11 0 0 73.2 60 22 22 6 20 90 0.221 1.09
Roark 4 4 2.70 11 11 0 0 70.0 57 26 21 5 26 62 0.222 1.19
Gonzo 3 3 3.57 10 10 0 0 58.0 56 27 23 7 17 53 0.251 1.26
Ross 4 4 2.52 9 9 0 0 53.2 49 18 15 4 16 41 0.247 1.21
Stras has given up MORE hits and MORE earned runs than Roark! And so the logical thing to do is to call up Giolito and move Tanner back to the pen right? :(
Does anyone know if Espinosa still has options left? I'm assuming if Turner were called up, they'd either have to send Danny back to Syracuse or cut Drew and eat the remainder of his contract. I'm guessing they'd demote Danny but not necessarily if he'd have to pass through waivers.
I'm with Bx. There's simply no performance-based rationale to prefer Danny to TT at this point. TT's "meh" performance during his call up last year was in a grand total of 44 plate appearances, i.e., ten games. Notwithstanding that this is an absurdly small sample (and from it we cannot draw any reasonable inferences about how well he'll do), he still was appreciably better at the plate than Danny is now.
Danny's defense is fine, and there may be reason to think it's better than TT's (there are scouts that think otherwise, too), but it's inconceivable to me that any difference in defense would make up for TT's MUCH better bat. Danny would have to be Andrelton Simmons quality on defense for that to be true, and he just aint.
The Nats are a better collection of players with TT in the lineup as starting SS. There may be chemistry issues with making a change, and I won't pretend to know how those shake out. But until TT is playing shortstop every day, the Nats are choosing to field a worse team.
@Z11 - Even the fancy stats like Roark so far. His BABIP is a little low (.269) but not egregiously so. His K rate is higher than ever, so is his BB rate to be fair. His ground ball rate is great, and the highest it's ever been. So that works out to a pretty good looking FIP of 3.55, and his HR rate has actually been a little high so his xFIP (which uses a league average HR-rate) still looks good at 3.58.
We used to say (only somewhat facetiously) on here that he was Tanner "Smoke and Mirrors" Roark but it looks like he understands his repertoire very well. From my watching of his starts this year he's gotten comfortable throwing that sinker all over the plate, including inside to lefties which I think is the cause for the uptick in his K rate. He's also using his changeup more, so he's got a much better overall line against lefties (.193/.307/.271) then he did when he was a reliever last year (.293/.359/.507) and even his great 2014 (.234/.291/.381).
There's nothing particularly fluky about his numbers that are certain to result in a violent regression. And you're right it would be foolish to bump him at this point for Giolito. But it offers a certain comfort that if one of our starters DO implode between now an (knock on wood) October that we have the #1 pitching prospect (lol, Urias) waiting in the wings.
I think Rizzo and the Nats know that Turner is the shortstop of the future. There really isn't any competition between Turner and Espinosa at this point. The only question is around the timing and I think there are 3 drivers behind that.
1) Nats want an extra year of service time from Turner so they will wait until early June. In this regard, they would probably wait a week or so more just to avoid the appearance that they were holding him back just to gain that year.
2) They want to make sure he's really ready, so when he gets called up, he stays. Boswell had an interesting stat in his chat today that showed almost all shortstop prospects get between 1200-1600 ABs in the minors before they are called up. TT has just under 1000. So there may be a school of thought that he could use more seasoning.
3) What's the corresponding move? I don't think this is as big as the first two issues, unless Danny is out of options. They probably don't want to lose either Espinosa or Drew and get nothing back. So if Danny's out of options, there may be a wait while Rizzo tries to figure out what to do with one of them.
Chaz:
Um no. It's not a major risk that TT won't hit. Here's why: (1) Danny already doesn't hit. And I don't mean doesn't hit as in he's not a good hitter. I mean he's hilariously horrendous at hitting a baseball. And yes. This is what Danny can do. Look at this career. He's not a major league hitter. (2) I mean, scouts don't always agree. But they agree Trea Turner is at worst going to be a mediocre but acceptable bat at SS. (i.e. better than Danny). Now, can I guarantee you that Trea Turner will hit something like .250-.260 IMMEDIATELY? no. That's preposterous and silly. And the same reason Turner's performance last year is meaningless. Mike Trout hit worse in his first 40 PA in the majors than Turner did. It's just not many ABs. Turner may not be a good hitting SS. It's possible. But even if he isn't, and is merely a below average hitting shortstop, that's better than Danny. (3) Finally, no. He's not a major downgrade defensively. Danny isn't Brandon Crawford/Andrelton Simmons. He's an average MLB shortstop defensively. Seriously. Everybody needs to abandon the "Danny is a gold glove SS" train, despite the amount of times FP screams it. It's nonsense. His metrics say he's a perfectly fine one. And Turner looks like he will be a perfectly fine one too, maybe a tiny downgrade. But that doesn't make up difference between a person who hits like a crappy hitting pitcher and a person who hits like a major league infielder.
Sorry. Corresponding move is Stephen Drew DFA/waivers. Not complicated.
I think we will see Reynaldo Lopez before we see Giolito, unless there's an injury to a starter (or Gio totally implodes, as I think is perfectly possible....he is in my view easily our worst starter and will end season with highest ERA of them). Lopez I think could really help the pen.
Finally....just to respond to something JC said: Fans often think of swapping out a non star for a non star as not that appreciable an upgrade...i.e. not as big an upgrade as a solid regular for a star. It's actually the opposite. The difference between horrendous gaping lineup hole and competent bat (meaning a .260/.330/.420 hitter) is actually MORE valuable than the jump from average regular to "all-star type." Don't underestimate how much better a lineup can get by filling the giant holes. Basically what happens is the innings where you usually see Espinosa, P, Revere (a guy hitting with bases empty and 2 outs, i.e. a lost inning), suddenly becomes a possible scoring opportunity. Plus, opposing pitchers tire faster as well, because there's no super-easy outs/breaks in the lineup. FP always says "where's the let-up in this lineup?!?" to which I always scream "Danny Espinosa, FP, god!...and Werth, while you're at it!" AGAIN. I will emphasize I am NOT saying Turner will immediately over first 3 weeks be a .260 hitter with extra base pop and tons of steals. Here's what I AM saying, based on multiple scouts' takes that I have read. If you leave him in the lineup for rest of the year, he will be, at MINIMUM, a .240-.250 hitter who is more of an extra base threat as Danny due to same pop with more contact, and a crazy annoying pest to pitchers on the bases, who will play almost as good defense as danny, possibly just as good. (NOTE: Keith Law thinks that although Danny has a stronger arm, that Trea Turner has much softer hands/better glove and range). In other words, Turner will get you 2 more wins over rest of year.
@BxJaycobb -- not sure DFAing Drew is the obvious answer. He's guaranteed $3m and is Danny really an upgrade on the bench over Drew? I'm not saying Drew is any good at all. But if Danny is a "horrendous, gaping hole" it's hard to argue that he's much better. And if the Nats can keep both he and Drew in the fold by sending Danny down, maybe that's the better answer, particularly if there are concerns about Danny's demeanor when not starting.
If Danny's out of options, then DFAing Drew is the right answer, though. Does anyone know?
There is no good argument for leaving Trea Turner in AAA at this point. He is as ready as he is ever going to be. The comparisons between him and Danny Espinosa are relevant only in that they underscore the latter's offensive deficiencies. Does anyone doubt that Turner is the shortstop of the future? Has anyone doubted that Espy is there only to hold the position until Turner is ready?
Well, there's nothing Turner or the organization is getting out of keeping him in Syracuse anymore. In other words, he's ready and the future is now. He may never pan out to be the star we're hoping him to be but, with a lead in the NL East, a relatively "easy" schedule ahead, and an offense consisting mainly of Daniel Murphy and a lot duct tape, there is no reason to wait any longer to find that out.
For me, the only question is whom do I send down, Drew or Espy?
By the way, looks like this decision would be harder if Desi were our shortstop. Has anyone seen his numbers lately? Holy cow. Looks like 2012. Good for him. Glad it's working out.
@Donald, the reason Espi is preferable to Drew is that while neither is any good at hitting, Drew is ghastly in the field and Espi is an excellent injury stop-gap off the bench in that he can play all 4 infield positions from between competently to very well and hit (well, swing) from both sides of the plate. If I'm the GM I keep him and lose the money to Drew before I cut Danny. I'm sure Rizzo is looking hard for a team willing to hand over a mediocre prospect for Drew in the next week and a half or so, because I agree that paying Drew not to play would really chafe.
@PhthePhillies, I was thinking the exact same thing as I was filling out an all-star ballot today. I stopped paying attention to Desi when he was well below the Mendoza line at 3 weeks or whatever. He's obviously interested in getting paid after all. Very happy for him.
Bryce out of line of after the HBP. Rizzo should take this opportunity to ink a multiyear deal. Harper is in a slump and might appreciate that he is one bad (hopefully not intentional) pitch away from no payday.
Like I mentioned at end of previous post, do the Nats consider going after Desmond as an OF at end of season? Or maybe trade at deadline?
IMO Desmond would be better defensively than Werth, and definitely better offensively than Werth, MAT, and Revere.
...and right on queue Werth jacks one out of The Bank!
Where is Robot!
@Bx- Ok, not arguing on the potential offense upside with TT. I think there is a tendency to overestimate offense over defense. It's understandable given the obvious run production etc. I think all the TT over Danny folks need to ask themselves if TT could make the plays Danny is making is this Philly's game- ???
It sounds like Im arguing for Danny over TT- I'm not. I just don't think there is a clear appreciation for Danny's defensive value oner TT.
I don't think the Nats have any chance to sign Desmond this season. Tigers are definitely not going to be sellers. That ship has sailed.
Bx: right. The problem with your argument in my opinion is that we have SOME ability to quantify the value of defense relative to offense, if you look at stats like defensive runs saved and fWAR and total WAR. Having a defensive edge over a player is not remotely close to as valuable as an offensive edge, although it is important. Like....we can quantify it decently. Consider: how many spectacular non-routine plays does Danny even have a chance to make every week? 2? That's why it's important but not AS important (in that time Danny has like 30 plate appearances). So defense is important. But make no mistake: if you have two shortstops who are pretty close to average at the position, you should play the better offensive player. That's what the metrics tell us Danny is. hes probably in the 60th percentile of major league SS defensively and the 1st percentile offensively. Trea according to scouts has a better glove and a weaker arm, and is likely comparable on D. MAYBE a bit less good. I appreciate Danny is a good shortstop. But he is a beyond unplayable hitter. Even if we assume Danny is a better defender, playing him over Trea would be like playing---just an example--Michael Taylor in CF over Revere (if we think of revere as he is generally regarded, a .300 hitter with zero power or walks).....a marginally better defender (Taylor) over an adequate defender who can actually hit major league pitching.
Sorry. Meant to address Chaz. I'm Bx. Ha.
Because Danny is out of options I believe. Even if he wasn't, he's preferable to drew. Both of them are basically zeroes at the plate. But Danny can steal you a base off the bench. And he's a more versatile, better fielder. That's basically it.
Was Danny batting R or L when he hit the lazer tonight?
Can we please keep destroying Danny in the comments? It may have helped tonight. Certainly, Stephen Drew got an unexpected boost since our pessimism (rather than neglect) was directed at him today.
One note about calling up Giolito is that Ross may be on some kind of innings limit, so there's the chance to have Giolito come up in Aug-Sep to replace him if everything else goes well and Gio remains non-explosive.
As many other people have said, the only reason to not DFA Drew when Turner is called up is if (1) Espinosa is actually a "clubhouse cancer" when not starting (something that honestly, I don't give a lot of credence to--and which, well, isn't that what we're paying Dusty Baker for in the first place, his ability to manage a clubhouse?) or (2) Dusty gets hung-up on Drew's veteran winnersauce. Espinosa offers speed as a pinch-runner, the ability to play anywhere in the IF at a high level, and specifically can play Gold Glove-level defense at 2B, which is a nice thing to have in the late innings when Murphy is the starter there. Better defense, better baserunning, more versatility, and yes, better bat (by wRC+, Danny is 64, Drew 54).
The discussion on replacing Danny with TT at shortstop presumes there won't be an injury or two in the coming weeks, a wildly optimistic thought. The odds are there will be, and TT will come up to fill a specific need (Zimm and Rendon being the two most likely candidates to visit IR). After which, if the kid hits and runs well, we can have that discussion with more than just guesswork to make our case with. Regarding Danny, my casual observation was that he made at least one play, possibly two, last night that could have been the been the difference in a one run game. If I'm Dusty, I let nature take its course.
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