Nationals Baseball: Hungover

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Hungover

The worst part about last night for me wasn't the loss. Worry about the Nats if they can't pull out of this in Milwaukee. The worst part was staying up past that interminable Top of the 9th only to lose. You were making a deal with the devil then. I'll stay up and watch this but because I want to see the Nats win a game. And then the devil gets you.

So now what in CF?
In short : Nothing.

In long : 

It would be completely unfair to look at last night and demote or otherwise get rid of MAT. That was pretty much the lowest point for the kid and it is not likely to be repeated. However it isn't unfair to look at MAT's stats at nearly 200 PA (he's got roughly a quarter season worth) and his stats for his career and think the same things. In 2014* he OPS+ 75, in 2015 it was 72, this year so far it is 75. He struck out 39.5% of the time in 2014, 30.9% in 2015, 31.4% this year. The line on MAT has always been that when he makes contact his combination of speed and power make him a dangerous offensive player. However, he's not making enough contact. Not now, not ever at the major league level. It's easy to think that MAT should be a 5th OF. It's easy to think he should be the type of player that is a late inning D replacement (yes, I know - like good defenders don't make errors, smart guy), pinch runner, bat you send up if you are hoping for a bomb. 

Whether that is premature or not Taylor isn't the 5th OF. He's being used as a platoonish starter right now, and that's because of how Ben Revere is doing. Revere was the assumed full-time starter and he doesn't seem right. Given his overall consistency I'd guess he's still feeling the effects of injury but either way the results have been unusable. Ben is guy who lives and dies by the single and he's not hitting them.  A .206 average in a few less at bats than MAT has. He's hitting a lot more flyballs this year, worthless hits for a guy like him with no power. He's striking out a bit more. He hasn't been a good fielder in years, and his speed is only helpful if he gets on the base paths. He hasn't been starter worthy either for the season.

If the Nats were inclined to make a dramatic move or were in panic mode we might see neither Taylor or Revere starting. In fact I'm sure there'll be calls for den Dekker, as he's the type that leaves a good impression. But he's currently hitting .219 in Syracuse, and in brief outings this year he hit worse than MAT. He might be passable in a strict platoon but probably not. He's just ok in the field too and not as fast as these other two.There's not a conspiracy holding this guy back. He isn't that good. Chris Heisey is no better.

What's in the minors?  People might ask to see Brian Goodwin called up just to try it. He is hitting .294. But he also doesn't have any patience and meh power. He has been toning down the Ks as the season has worn on. He had 21 in 77 PAs in April, 11 in 77 PAs so far in June. So maybe? It doesn't feel like a smart move though. More throwing stuff at the wall to see if it sticks. Stevenson or Robles? Too far away.

So... trade? Not so fast. The truth is the quasi-platoon Dusty was throwing out there was working, at least it has been recently. Revere has hit .308 in his last 12 games.  Yes, absolutely no patience or power but he's been getting his singles. He's been sitting not because of his stinky overall numbers, but because there have been a lot of lefty starters recently. MAT has been allowed to face those guys and in the same rough time frame (since June 5th) MAT has hit .348 / .375 / .587.  That includes last night's 0 fer. How can you ask for more than this? CF the last 2 weeks has been good.

It's doubtful the position is ever going to be what you want it to be. Revere is a lifetime averag-ish singles hitter coming off of injury who fields ok. Taylor is a clearly below average hitter who strikes out too much to play everyday, but fields well and is enough of a power threat to make his bat useful. That's who these guys are.  Use them smartly and you might squeeze out a position that's a little above average. For the season that hasn't worked out but for the past couple weeks it really has. The Nats should not worry about last night and keep doing the same.

The All-Star break is still a month away. Let it play out until then. Maybe this keeps working and you ride it all season long. Maybe Revere starts hitting, MAT cools down, and you start to make Ben the full-time guy again and MAT a spot starter. Maybe they both go back to failing and you know you have to make a move. But these guys have not been hurting the team in June. To change things up now would be going after something that just might be fixed. Maybe. Possibly. Don't let one terrible night lose sight of that.

*Yes, yes. Small sample. It's more of a backward allowance. Fits pattern shown in other years so we don't throw it out like we might a 120 OPS+ or a 40 OPS+. Not really fair but this isn't high level analysis here just pointing out a pattern.

29 comments:

Mythra said...

Cespedes and Thor both went out with injuries for the Mets last night. 3.5 games ahead after losing 5 in a row and 7 head to heads left before the break.

The team just looks winded, and for good reason. by the end of this road trip, they have played 12 more games on the road than at home. As of now, they are 5 games over .500 on the road and have never been below .500 overall all year.

The guys really needed today's day off. Also, the league needs to do something with 10pm east coast starts on getaway days. Is it just me, or do west coast teams never have mid-week day games like the rest of the league? At least a 4pm west coast start is a normal 7pm east coast time. MLB never has figured this out since teams moved west.

On the topic of Harper's post, I think Revere is starting to get his form back. MAT should be a piece in a trade, if there is someone out there who would value a 4th OF in a trade. Package deal for a relief arm or corner OF dependable bat.

BornInDC said...

Also, it's not like the Nats were totally outplayed the last two days. In fact, they outhit the Dodgers Tuesday and Wednesday with 11 hits each night. Also, Monday night when the Nats had to start a bullpen pitcher against Kershaw, the Nats had as many hits as the Dodgers; you can't ask for much more than that. In addition, last night, the Nats had at least two hits that hit high on the wall and could have gone out in a different park or even earlier in the day. There's no getting around the fact that there is a heavy luck element in every baseball game; sometimes it works for you, sometimes it works against you. If the Nats can average over 9 hits per game, as they did against the Dodgers, going forward, their offense should be just fine.

A continuing concern because of the considerable power in the Nats lineup is the number of times they get picked off or caught stealing or going for the extra base. It's not totally accidental that the Nats have so many solo home runs. In the case of the Nats, I think their "running game" generally takes pressure off the opposing pitchers by giving them free outs. For opposing pitchers, the scary part about the Nats lineup is that nearly the entire batting order is a potential home run threat when Taylor and Ramos are in the lineup, including the pinch hitters in place of the pitcher in late innings.

Jay said...

I agree that Revere is slowly starting to find his swing. Just Sunday MAT had one of his best games. I thought to myself - maybe he's starting to figure it out. Last night was one game. The bigger problem is possibly the bullpen. They've now lost 3 of those 5 games when leading going into the bottom of the 8th. Those are all games they should have won.

Win 2/3 in Milwaukee and they are fine. The big games are coming this week as long as the Nats can get back on track this weekend. 3 against the Mets and then 4 against the Reds - all at home. Meanwhile the Mets play 4 against the Cubs while we play the Reds (though the Cards did just sweep the Cubs). 7 games against the Mets in just a little over 2 weeks. Today is the Nats last day off before the All Star break. It could definitely have a big impact on the rest of the season.

1natsfan said...

So far on this road trip, the normally reliable bullpen imploded, Gio looked like the Gio from last year, Strasburg got hurt, Zimmerman looked like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, and the reliable defense had a dismal day. When the Mets got swept by the Braves, I thought we had this. Instead... Well, that's baseball.

Jay said...

Does anyone have any thoughts on the Mets and their handling of their pitchers? Syndergaard is having elbow pain for the second time of this year. He had an MRI on May 1 and didn't even miss a start. Now he leaves a game early for elbow pain. Doc says everything is fine. I wonder if his arm falls off will the Doc say the elbow is still intact. Cespedes left with wrist pain - no big deal per same Doc. Matz missed 1 start with forearm tightness and elbow pain. MRI ok, so no big deal. deGrom's velocity is down. Meanwhile, Strasburg misses a start with minor back strain. The Mets would have pitched him I'm sure.

Mythra said...

@Jay - Not a doctor and this is purely observation, but both the Mets and Braves seem to have gone to Harper's use them until the arm falls off school. Not saying it's a bad thought, and there are motivations for both. The Mets can't afford to not get returns on money invested in arms. The owners are pretty much starting over after the Madoff debacle. Winning now and profit are all they have. The Braves were selfish and needed to win now to stave off the rebuilding as long as possible. They needed the studs they had for either a playoff run or to trade for this current rebuilding cycle, since the long run of Braves playoffs and trade deadline deals of the 90s and 2000s gutted their farm system.

I was worried about all the signs coming from the Mets pitching staff early in the season. Repeat elbow pain usually is bone chips/spurs in a best case scenario, which is usually months off. TJ surgery in worst case. Loss of velocity is also a warning sign of TJ or rotator cuff damage. I have experienced the latter myself and ended my pitching career in high school because of it. You just can't get any 'oomph' behind the throw and your shoulder is on fire all the time.

I'd love to beat the Mets just to silence the trolls, but if they made a choice to ride these guys onto the DL, it's just sad.

Anonymous said...

How many times in the history of Major League Baseball do you think the leadoff hitter has worn the platinum?

I don't know the answer, but I'm guessing that Michael K. Flailer is one of a VERY small handful to ever pull that off.

Matt said...

Mets fan (not one of those trolls who just is here to annoy) here who rarely post... mostly just likes to see the Nats insight. I have to disagree with both @mythra and @jay. The Mets have actually done a pretty good job bringing along the Big 4. When Matz had elbow issues, he missed a start and came back 10 days later. Noah has his elbow looked at every 2-4 months just to get it checked. Yesterday wasn't one of those occasions, but he went to the doctor and everything checked out. With that said, with his go all out pitching, I have the fear of god in me everytime he goes out there. Degrom's velocity has picked up the last 3 starts to where he is getting close to last year. And as for Mr. Harvey he has been tough to figure out what is going on with him this year. Even Wheeler has had two minor setbacks and the Mets have backed off (If you remember they were targeting June 1). To me, we have no idea how exactly to evaluate or bring arms along (If you haven't done so, read the "The Arm" by Jeff Passan) to make sure no one gets hurt. The Mets went for it last year to maybe sacrifice this year, but really we have no idea if A = B. In fact, I would say the Mets have done an excellent job bringing these guys along this year. Most starts they are between 95-105 pitches (and I don't believe in pitch count) and for the most part 7 innings is the stopping point.

Anyway, enjoy the blog. Love reading thoughtful and meaningful insight on the Mets biggest rival. I really thought the Nats would bury the Mets this week, but as most of you stated, that is baseball.

Zimmerman11 said...

I texted at 1:48 last night to a buddy "I stayed up 'til 2AM for THIS??? MAT 0-5, 5Ks, and a horrific error to end the game, FML... "

Glad to hear there are other masochists supporting this team :)

Old Man River said...

Gio and Taylor for a solid bullpen arm? Maybe throw in Cole? As they say, one man's trash could be another man's treasure...

Anonymous said...

@Old Man River, that would bring back Rodney, and maybe you can also take Melvin Upton Jr. off the Padres' hands, he's having a good season.

Jay said...

I saw on ESPN different trade scenarios for different teams. They had Turner for Chapman. I'm not sure I'd give up Turner for 2 months of Chapman. That goes back to I'm not sure anyone would give us any legitimate reliever without giving up a pretty good prospect right now.

Alex L. said...

Whenever questions of CF come up, I just get further annoyed that we let Span walk without a QO.

Barely relevant, I know. But the move made no sense to me when it happened, and time hasn't made it look any better. Would've liked to have at least had that comp pick last week.

Nattydread said...

There are masochists everywhere. On mission in Hargeisa, Somaliland (the pacified old British Somalia), I had breakfast listening to the 8th inning with the Nats up by one. My wi-fi ended once I left the hotel and went to the field. On a 4 game losing streak, you get dread feelings when leads are so small. So when I came back to the hotel and read about MAT's blunder, I was not surprised. This is a bad luck run, thats all. Better to have it now and get it over. Pull ourselves together to see the Mets.

Over the last few games, the real problem has been LOB's. 18 yesterday!!! Harper and MAT had 11 LOB's and 7 K's between the two of them. The off day will help, Scherzer will pull it together tomorrow. Ramos is hot, Ross had a great game, Espinosa looks good, we are still 11-9 in June.

JE34 said...

I *want* to despair, but Harper's brain won't let me.

I almost want to see the old little league coaching tool used on Bryce... lay a bat down behind him, to stop him from pulling himself away from the path of the baseball.

Froggy said...

@Natty- Ambassador or Safari hotel?

Nattydread said...

Man Soor Hotel. You've been here!

John C. said...

Six years of Turner, a legit top 20 MLB prospect, for two months of Chapman? Hell, the Nats wouldn't even be able to make a QO and get a comp pick for Chapman. That's insane crazy talk, the sort of thing that you see on a team's fan page ("see, let's trade Fedde, Voth, and oh hell sure, Robles for Trout!"). It's a Yankee fans' dream, not serious analysis. Amazingly, my respect for ESPN has somehow slipped even lower. Didn't see that coming.

Froggy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Jay said...

Add in the fact that Chapman is a free agent in the offseason and could be signed without sacrificing any prospects. I just don't see Rizzo doing much in the trade market bc of stuff like that listed on ESPN. I mean it has to come from somewhere, so someone out there thinks that Turner for Chapman is an ok deal. I agree with John C - that's crazy talk. Now Turner for Trout straight up. That sounds like a fair deal.

Jay said...

Also, not to be a grumpy old man, but I don't see how Mets fans can be very happy. Just saw on the Tweeter (Davey term for twitter) that the Mets aren't going to skip Syndergaard, and that Matz complained of elbow tightness after his last start (second time this year he has complained of elbow pain as well). The Mets grand plan with Matz is to not miss any starts and watch his pitch count - "Terry Collins prefers watching pitch counts to skipping starts and disrupting rhythm". Now again there is no consensus for how to handle pitchers, but I can't figure out how it is ever cool to pretty much keep pitching with elbow pain. And how does no one call the Mets and Collins out on this?? Craziness.

Harper said...

JC - Keep your respect at the Mendoza line - I think that trade thing came from Heyman's new site, not ESPN.

SM said...

On the other hand, ESPN's broadcast of last night's game offered some interesting analyses of the current hitting struggles of Bryce and Zim and the chronic struggles of MAT.

Froggy said...

Yup. Stayed at Safari and Ambassador once. Hargeisa is much nicer than Bosaso and Galkayo. Were you listening to the game or watching?

Chas R said...

@Matt- thanks for the thoughtful input from a Mets fan perspective. I am often surprised at how many Mets fans read this and other Nats blogs. That actually prompted me to start checking out Mets blogs. I enjoy occasionally reading Mets Mesmerized, but never comment. Are there any other good ones?

Chas R said...

@JC- right on. Turner for Chapman is beyond nuts, it's Burn the House Down crazy. I see a lot of fan posts like that too. As the old saying goes- You can't fix stupid.

Matt said...

@chas R metsmerized is good. Metsblog.com is also a good source...although you have a lot of people with thoughtless comments that is really just people yelling. dailystache.net is another good one.

Nattydread said...

I watched until the signal got to bad, then switched audio, then Gameday. Bandwidth goes down rapidly after 7AM in Hargeisa.

Ole PBN said...

If Rizzo gets any arm from the pen, it won't be a phenom on a rental. I see him adding someone like Kelley, a under the radar, solid arm for mid-level prospect or two. Don't expect a splash at the deadline unless its for a bat, but why would the Nats ever do that?! (sarcasm).

Turner for an elite closer? I wouldn't give up Turner for a guy who isn't going to score us any runs and is only effective when we're winning in the 9th inning. Closers are an interesting phenomenon. There are only a handful of elite guys out there with a proven track record (Kimbrel, Chapman, maybe Jansen or Melancon). If these guys are on the bump for your team in the 9th, all the other fans are unhappy or uneasy with their closer. Even the best ones blow 3-5 games a year. Guys like Rodney or Britton from the O's, with their perfect record this season, are not going to stay that way. And the same way that closers who've blown 3 games already can go on a tear for the rest of the season.

The fact that some teams are willing to sell the farm for someone in that role is mind-blowing, and honestly, flat out stupid. Teams like the Royals have proven what a good bullpen can do for you, yes - but they also proved that you can get them on the cheap or develop them. I say any reliever in the Nats system that throws 95+ and doesn't have a plus third pitch should be booked as a reliever, plain and simple. Remember when the Reds were considering making Chapman a starter? Laughable. Remember when the Red Sox DID make Daniel Bard a starter? Oops...