These are the paces the Mets and Marlins would have to play to catch a Nats team that goes .500 over the course of the last 54 games.
The Nats could possibly pull that off. They've played roughly .500, maybe even a couple games under, for a couple of long-ish stretches. But they've always bounced back and over 54 games their worst stretch this year is 29-25. It would have to be a disappointing finish to say the least. The Marlins have peaked with a 32-22 streak this year - close to what they need but not quite there. The Mets over 55 games 32 wins as well, a little further off a 36 win pace.
You can see why I'm enthused and also why I can't call it just yet. I'm enthused because for the Nats to lose the East would take them playing the worst they have all year over such a long stretch and one of the team's chasing them playing the best they have over the same time frame. That's not very likely. At the same time it is a third of the season that remains and that's a long time for things to happen that can derail a season. And while the Nats have to play the worst they have and the other teams have to play the best they have, the paces aren't that far off the worst and best they've done so far. It's not likely, but it's just possible enough that you can't write it off. Yet.
What would it take to write it off? If the Nats can gain a couple more games over the next 5 games (SF, CLE) then that might be enough. At that point you are asking the Nats to go .500 over 50 games, where they play 13 vs ATL, 7 vs PHI, and 4 vs ARI. That's almost half against some of the bottom feeders of the NL. So while Baltimore has maintained its status and Colorado has streaked to become a decent match-up it would still be hard for me to envision the Nats going .500 over that time frame. If they do better than .500 and are starting with 9 games in hand? I'm sorry but now you are asking the Mets or Marlins to have historic finishes.
We're getting close people. But not yet.