Stephen Matz, perennial injury risk, was supposed to be back after season-ending elbow surgery (bone spur) last year. But unsurprisingly he is hurt again. This wouldn't be so bad but Matt Harvey is recovering from his own surgery and it's one, thorasic outlet syndrome, that basically leaves him a question mark on whether he will be ok or never be the same*. The Mets have starting rotation depth, Gsellman, Lugo, Wheeler, who all have potential, but they'd rather have Matz and a to-form Harvey as they have already proven they can be part of the dominating starting pitching the Mets probably need to cover a blah offense.
Offensively Juan Lugares is out, which robs them of an effective 4th OF but nothing more. David Wright is out but this isn't an surprise at all and they weren't relying on him. It's not a good offense, but at least it's healthy.
The Braves rotation is healthy. Old and not good, but healthy. Their pen has suffered a loss with Mauricio Cabrera hurting his elbow. He was the #4 arm in the pen and the #3 arm Vizcaino has had a wild swing from 2015 (great) to 2016 (bad). He's looked good in Spring but if he falters the Braves could have a tough time with the pen.
The Braves lost Sean Rodriguez as a 2nd-base / super utility guy. They've replaced him with Brandon Phillips which should be a wash for 2017 but man the Braves can't afford another offensive injury. They have arguably the worst bench in the majors.
The Phillies have had an uneventful spring. Zach Eflin, who might have fought for a rotation spot, suffered enough setbacks to start in AAA but that's about all I could find. The team they are putting out there is it's near optimal team. Of course what that is is a team that is shaking all the young players it has to see which good ones drop out.
The Marlins suffered the biggest loss of them all with the
Injury wise the Mets have what is now annual questions with the rotation. They should be able to cover them, though. Should. That would leave them still battling the Nats. The Braves were a team that you felt might compete if everything went right health-wise but the season isn't quite starting that way. It's not off the rails yet but it's not the start you want. The Phillies, on the other hand, have the start the Braves want but not the team. They'd need more than just health. The Marlins are the team starting the year off on the wrong foot. That's a bad sign for a team that was already a disappointment last year after Stanton took a dive. I'd probably bet the under on the Marlins.
The Nats are in theory healthy so they start with a leg up on the Mets. But we'll see pretty soon if that rotation health is real or a mirage created by Spring Training usage patterns. If it is real you have to give the Nats a little head start on whereever you put these teams in your head. If nothing else, that's where you want to be.
*which is honestly better than most shoulder injury prognosisisisis.