Howie doin?

The Nats season is a hard one for those that like drama. The Nats opened the season going 21-9 and taking a 6+ game lead. They went a mediocre 30-27 over the next two months... and gained two games in the standings. The rest of the NL East has made the Nats drive to a division title a race against themselves.

But now, after weeks and weeks of fun but kind of meaningless feeling baseball, finally we are at the part of the season that matters. We are to the trade deadline, where the Nats may, or may not, shore up their team for the playoffs. After this will come the positioning of August and September, getting players healthy and potentially fighting off the surging Cubs for home field in the NLDS. The Nats went into the trade deadline with three potential tasks.

The undeniable one, the one they HAD to do, was address the bullpen with at least two arms. They did that right away.  The other ones were more questionable. In a perfect world they would add a top half of the rotation starter (to compensate for the 4/5 troubles they've had this year and cover for the potential Strasburg injury), a proven closer (because - you know they don't have one), and a solid corner OF (to cover the injuries of MAT and Werth, and give them a great bench if/when these guys return). Of course in a perfect world these would cost nothing as well.

In the real world it was more realistic to hope for MAYBE one or more of a fair back of the rotation guy (to fill-in as necessary at the back of the rotation and save some pen arms), another bullpen arm (because Doolittle is an injury risk), and a decent 4th OF corner OF type.

Well the Nats did get the last thing done, bringing in Howie Kendrick for McKenzie Mills.

Why did the Nats need Kendrick? Well Jayson Werth last played on June 3rd. He's just now swinging the bat and still has to run and throw. He's a few weeks out at best. MAT last played on July 6th.  He's up to playing catch.  He could be back soon if he feels good swinging. Six weeks is a good guess for an oblique. But even back to health an oblique injury is an easy one to reinjure because you use it for everything and can't really compensate for it. Chris Heisey strained his groin, putting himself out for some extended period and he was also hitting .162 with 1 homer this year.  Ryan Rayburn is out too! In short - a lot of OF options were not looking good.

That's why they needed an OF. Why Kendrick? A few reasons. He's a rental and the Nats, for the most part, want a rental for this spot. They like Bryce, Eaton for two of their OF spots and are probably looking to let MAT try and hold off Robles for the 3rd OF spot next year. They aren't looking for an ok OF with another year. The Phillies were willing, for the right prospect price, to eat the remaining 3 million or so of Kendrick's salary. This is something the Nats like more than other teams it seems. Kendrick can play multiple positions. He was a 2nd baseman, and a good one, for a long time but the Dodgers (and the numbers) saw something in 2015 that made them think his time there was at an end. He shifted to the outfield and became a pretty decent outfielder. He's put in time at first and third as well. It's not necessarily what you want to see - Kendrick playing something other than OF - but it's nice to know he can do it in a pinch. This is especially true with Stephen Drew facing an uncertain amount of time off due to injury. Plus he's not a bad runner making him a PR option as well.

But the most important reason is Kendrick can still hit. He had a little bit of a down year last year but otherwise has been a dependable bat all his career. At just 34 (birthday about 3 weeks ago) and hitting so far this year, you'd have to feel good that this year is not the year when it all goes away. He's an average hitter - and by that I mean he hits for average with just enough patience and power to make him a positive player if he can hit above .280 which he has done 9 out of the last 11 seasons. He's exactly the type of reliable contact bat you like to have on the bench, put the ball in play, move a runner over, that Raburn and Heisey are not.

Sounds great! What's the downside? Well he's been hurt a lot this year, missing seven weeks earlier this year and he's just coming back from missing a few days after getting hit in the hand. This isn't terribly new. He missed 40 games in 2015. 30+ in 2013. He'd mostly missed the big injuries but now the little ones are adding up. Also like I said, if he can hit above .280 he's fine. The further he goes under that the less value he has at the plate. A .260 Kendrick is... well... it's where you'd be saying "Difo hit pretty well this year. Let's stick with him".   Also his lack of patience and power means he has a very specific role coming into the game. He's not giving you a long bomb or working a tough walk. He's hitting the ball in play.

Of course if he didn't have these flaws he wouldn't be a 4th OF on a contender would he?

The downside is basically the downside with any player you get at the trade deadline. If he doesn't do what he's good at, he doesn't have much value. The good news is that Kendrick is good at a few things. Runs well, fields well, contact hitting. So if he doesn't contact hit - yes he's a minus at the plate - but it doesn't make him a useless player.  He can still contribute. It's a very nice pick-up in my opinion.

What did the Nats give up for this very nice pick-up? McKenzie Mills. Who is McKenzie Mills? Well he's one of those "high school guys given more time" that we talked about at the end of last week. He was drafted, and after a poor rookie league stint was brought up Low A. He did so poorly they dropped him back to Rookie League. If he were a 23 year old college guy that would be the end of it. but he was only 19, he had the size that teams love (6'4" 200+), and he was left-handed.  So Mills got another go at low-A and what do you know? He improved. Not enough to get you excited but enough to move up and see what he could do in A-ball. What he has done is found himself. His big issue was always walks.  To give you an example of how bad it was, when he improved himself in 2016  by cutting down his walks a TON they went all the way down... to over 4.5 per 9 IP. (If you don't know that's BAD).  This year that number is down under 2 and his strikeouts, never impressive before, are up over 10.

Did the Nats give up a gem? Perhaps. The trend is what you want to see and this year has been good. But he's a ways off and whatever he's done to make this improvement has made him prone to the long ball. He's still got to prove things in High A. If he does that then you can start to worry that maybe something special got away.  And I mean that very literally. If he has a similar season to this one, next year in High A, you can START to worry about this. That's it.

What's left for the Nats? Some targets for that back of the rotation and another pen arm are gone now. But we'll see. With news of Strasburg probably sitting out a second start coming out yesterday maybe we see something more dramatic than we would have expected a couple of weeks ago.