Happy December - Nothing is happening

Last year at this time RA Dickey, Bartolo Colon, Charlie Morton, Andrew Cashner, Josh Reddick, John Jay, and Yoenis Cespedes had been signed and another dozen lesser luminaries had been traded or picked up as well.

This year, until yesterday, the biggest name officially signed might have been Rubby De La Rosa.*

It could just be a slow time, pushed by Ohtani. Usually the Winter meetings speed things along. After a couple of  minor things in the first few days of December, during the meetings last year you saw Steve Pearce, Rich Hill, Carlos, Beltran, Mark Melancon, Mitch Moreland, Matt Holliday, and Joaquin Benoit signed. More importantly you saw the trades for  Chris Sale, Tyler Thornburg, Wade Davis, and yes, Adam Eaton go down.

So while things have been slow before we worry about it being a trend we have to at least until... the 14th. Man they are a little later this year. Ok, well the 14th it is.

So what do we talk about until then?  That's up to you. I'll gladly fill these blog posts with talk about the Hallmark movies I'm watching or breaking down Christmas songs or perhaps list my favorite things that you may yourself want (or want to buy for others) for Christmas. Or you could just throw questions at me. That's ok too.

We'll fill these spaces with something every other day or so, don't you worry.


For today I'll revist the "former guys" post just because that interests me.

Tyler Watson (for Kintzler) - nothing beyond what I said at the time.  Some promise looks hittable in A-ball but young.

McKenzie Mills (for Howie) -  Another post column trade. Phillies bumped him up to High A and he was knocked around a bit in 3 games. However control looked good still. In 2016 he showed he can be hard to hit. In 2017 he showed he can control himself. But doing both at a higher level is another thing. He'll have a couple High-A years to try. 

Jesus Luzardo - A's moved him up to low A from rookie to end the year and he looked just as good there. The IP is still small but all you can ask of any prospect is they do well and make you want to see more at a higher level and that's what he's done.

Sheldon Neuse - Ended up hitting really well in High A to end the year. So well they moved him up again to AA and he hit there too (though without the brief power surge seen in High A). They sent him the the Arizona Fall League and he hit there too, named an AFL "Fall Star".  At this point Sheldon is a half-season of AA performance from being a real PROSPECT.

Jeffrey Rosa (for Enny) -  On the flip side you have Rosa who couldn't hack it in rookie ball for the Rays. His first half of 2018 is about showing the Rays there is some reason to keep him before the draftees come in. It doesn't look good.

Dane Dunning - Found a wall in High-A. A mix of good, mediocre, and bad performances. Still there's enough there with the Ks and the performances not being consistently bad that it's hard to believe he's topped out. He may not be a major leaguer but I don't see him as a low minor wash out either. Not sure if the Sox will push him the AA just to do it or leave in High A another year.

Lucas Giolito - Moved to the majors at the end of the year and had really good results. However the fancy stats suggest that it was mostly smoke and mirrors. He didn't strike anyone out, and had a  too low BABIP.  I watched a lot of Giolito at the end of the year though and I saw a guy that had learned how to pitch who wasn't rattled by situation. I think he can be hard to hit, keep the ball in the park, and not walk too many. I do think there was luck involved here with the level of success, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't at least a reliable back-end starter in 2018 (as a 23 yo remember) putting up an ERA ~4.00. And if he can dial things back-up again without losing control... well that's the million (+ 100 of millions) dollar question, isn't it? Trend says no though
 
Reynaldo Lopez  - Also moved the majors with less successful results but similar pitching to Giolito. The other guy pitched like the other guy. He's still got a year or two before you anoint him AAA talent and he's shown in the minors some tendency to need some time but I don't see anything really getting better. Still again - he's just found it before once.

Max Schrock  (for Rep) - People noted, probably rightfully, that I got over excited about Max's performance. Hitting for high average in AA even at a young age isn't all that special. It probably means he can make the majors, but it doesn't make him a PROSPECT. A lot of career bench guys fit that role. He's still raking singles all over the place (like a .350 average in Aug/Sept) with no pop (4 XBH) so he'll probably get a bump up to AAA to see what he does there. Does the power come with age? Can he learn patience? Can he turn a .330+ average in the minors to .300+ in the majors? At least one of these answers will have to be answered yes for this to be a big loss for the Nats.

Taylor Hearn (other part of Melancon deal) -He got hurt and JUST got back healthy enough in time to throw some at season's end so nothing new to report here. Read last year.


You miss Giolito the most here. You can totally see where he'd fit in with the Nats in 2018 and beyond. But since he hasn't shown himself to be a top of the rotation guy yet you can't say you'd take him over Eaton. Lopez and Schrock today just look like fill-in pieces to a major league team. 5th starter/long man and bench guy.  They could end up being better but could also not even be that. The guy you'd most worry about other than Giolito is Neuse who right now looks like Schrock but with some power and some patience. The floor for him is higher though he needs more time in AA to prove it's not a one-year fluke. Luzardo looks slightly better than Dunning right now but that's all about "upside".

Ten minor leaguers dealt in deals for 8 GOOD major leaguers (well 7 good ones and 1 maybe good one in Enny). Even though some were just rentals, that's months of helpful performances to the Nationals.  You probably lost some ok major league starting pitching but that's all you can say today. Sure it could get worse but history tells you it usually goes on as planned. Really what matters is trading away a star more than anything and right now there isn't one. Giolito could click. Neuse could not slow down. Another guy could surprise or just keep coming up the ladder. But that's hard to do.

This is why you shouldn't balk too much at trading guys, especially guys that aren't like Top Prospects. Being a major leaguer is hard. Very hard. Extrememly hard. Take the guy who is doing it over the guy who may do it down the line if he doesn't get injured and keeps improving over time. 

*Yusmiero Petit's deal was finalized yesterday if you were wondering about him.