Offseason Position Discussion : Shortstop

Last year discussion revisited

We all expected Trea would play and would be fine. I brought up he was a mild injury risk having come off a season with a wrist problem and his performance at the plate may disappoint. In the worst case scenario, Trea injured and/or not good, Murphy injured and/or not good, the Nats would have been in a real bind. But at least at (only at?) shortstop the Nats caught a break and had no issues over the year. In fact Trea played all 162. He was disappointing at the plate putting up an average year to match the average year in 2017 we were quick to pin on injury. However his defensive numbers picked up to make him a plus player. 

Presumed Plan : Turner plays short. Assuming nothing goes terribly wrong in the 2B plan, Difo backs up.  That seems the most reasonable guess. No surprises here

Reasoning on Presumed Plan : It's pretty simple. If Turner has an overall average bat and is average in the field for a SS that's a starter. I know you'd like to see him hit like he did before* but even league average puts him in/near the Top 10 hitting shortstops in the majors. It's hard to get even that level of production. He's young (25 until the very end of next June) so he could presumably get better.  Plus if he's any better than average in the field (which he might have been last year - fielding stats are iffy) then he's securely in the Top 10. And his speed! I didn't mention his speed! Only Billy Hamilton has more SB over the past three years. His main problem isn't his own production but just the expectations he set early and the fact that there are a handful of great SSs right now. But he's fine, really. He's good.

Difo as back-up is the idea because he's shown himself to be a very good fielder and competent enough with the bat for short time frames. He's not a starter but you don't need one here. At this point you are betting on Trea playing close to full seasons. Your limited bench money, with all the THEY CAN SPEND AS MUCH AS THEY WANT caveats, should go elsewhere.

Problems with Presumed Plan : If Trea gets injured, then Difo is a starter would be a drain on the offense. I think we've proven that now.

If average is Trea's natural offensive level, then variability means he could have a below average season. He was sort of there for the first half of the year.

My take : Let's not make this out to be harder than it is.  Trea's mild injury risk has to be put aside now. He played a full 162 last year. He played 156 in 2016. He played in 140 in 2015, and given the late minor league start, mid-season trade, and September bench role that's a full year. He's the starter and he's a starter you can count on. That means his replacement has to be the last thing the Nats look at here. Zimm, Howie, Rendon, Eaton, Robles all are off the bat easily more likely to see injury time. So, no Difo isn't good. But is he good enough for last man on the bench? If there is a better MI to play 2B/3B on the team? Yes. At least for now.

Long-term Trea is interesting only because they Nats have MIs in the minors. It's like all they have now that their OFs have graduated to the majors. Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia are their top prospects and both, right now, project out to be starters. If you like them to do better than Trea then he, with control through 2022, becomes a very valuable trade piece. But that's not where the Nats are in 2019. The minor league guys are still question marks. Trea is here and ready.

Do I think he'll get back offensively to anywhere near that magical 2016 year? Probably not. He swings and misses too much. That's why you'd even think of trading him down the road. But not now. Yes if he's a average hitter he could put up an even more disappointing year at the plate, going below average. But he's just as likely to put up a slightly above average one.

As for Difo - I'd really like the Nats to get a better MI back-up. Difo has trended the wrong direction with more and more PAs and at 27 next year I don't see how that's going to improve. If it gets any worse he stops being good enough. But I accept the reality of the above. Trea is a good bet to stay healthy so Difo shouldn't play too much. And he's a good defensive replacement which could be important for 2B (depending which direction the Nats go) and is probably what you want for a SS replacement, even in modern baseball. If they get a 2B and make Kendrick super sub - Difo is fine. If they make Kendrick play 2B and sign someone cheap to back him up - Difo is fine. Difo is only not fine if they go into the season and he's the primary 2B/SS/3B back-up.

Out of the box suggestion :

Move Trea to 2nd. Sign Machado. We'd love to bring back Bryce but the fact is Machado is almost as good at the plate compared to a 90% healthy Bryce (which is kind of Bryce's starting point) and he's far more versatile a fielder. So he's not a great SS anymore. You know what? With Rendon on one side and Trea on the other that gives him a lot of cover. Plus you get to have Trea over at 2B instead of Kendrick or some other schmo who can't field which helps cover Zimm. And if you like what you see in your MI guys - well they move up and Machado shifts to 3B.  And maybe he can play SS still. No he wasn't good at the beginning of the year for Baltimore but (1) small sample size (especially for defensive stats) and (2) he played it much better in LA. Change of venue? Getting that experience of playing back? It's certainly worth a one year flier to find out.

Also signing Machado keeps him from going to Philly who desperately need a shortstop and even a below average fielding Machado would be a big improvement overall at that position for them.

*I saw a thing about how Soto SLG'd .950+ to the opposite field last year and got poking around and did you know in 2016 Turner slugged 1.177 on pulled hits? And in about the same number of hits too.  No, I'm not comparing Turner to Soto - different hitters entirely. And no, I'm not warning you not to get overly excited about Soto. Well yeah I'm going to do that, but not here. And really it's more of a "it could happen that he's not a superstar or even a star next year" note - but this is SS talk! No more Soto! Get out of here Soto!