Manny is a Padre!
Well he isn't really. Not yet. But it's in the "if this falls apart something has gone horribly wrong" stage. It's 10/300 which is right on target for what people were saying he would get, in October. We went on a wild ride to get there, but we got there. Is the same thing going to happen for Bryce?
On one hand the deal with the Padres forces the two known suitors for both (re: White Sox, Phillies) into a bad position. Bryce signs with the other guy and you'er left with an off-season that's probably unsatisfactory to your fanbase. On the other hand, another suitor is removed from Bryce's list meaning if the remaining three (throw in the Giants) aren't as serious about the money they want to give him, then his bargaining power drops. How much do these guys want Bryce?
Are the Nats still in it? Maybe. It seems like the potential contract won't blow the Nats supposed 10/300 out of the water, and if it's 10/315 or the like would the Nationals let Bryce walk for that difference? But all indications from the Nationals, and Bryce, since the beginning of the off-season has been the same. Bryce is gone. Nothing about that has changed and in fact that take has only grown louder (see Boz's column and recent Rizzo interviews).
When it boils down to it, we want to know two things. Is Bryce coming back? If not, is Bryce ending up in the NL East? That's what matters. The first answer has been a no for a while, despite the attempts to talk it into yes. The second question has been "if the Phillies pay him" for the same amount of time. We continue to sit and wait that out because while contract talk is all well and good, what matters is how the 2019 season plays out.
Why'd the Padres do it? Plenty of reasons. Machado might be worth it on the field. It gives them a star to market around. They are trying to catch the moment the organizational depth develops, rather than be reactive to it. They still aren't good. Maybe they are .500. But the NL West looks pretty favorable for them in the near future. The Giants are presumably about to begin a rebuild. The Diamondbacks are in the midst of one already (for some reason). The Rockies are a good team, but also were lucky last year could lose Arenado which would put them on par with the Padres. If the guys they think will develop develop and maybe they sign one more big pitcher and you've got a high 80s win Padres team. Now I haven't mentioned the Dodgers, who should remain very good in upcoming years, but it's a should. Things happen and if the Dodgers fall the Padres could find themselves with a nice little run. At the very least they should be a consistent 2nd place team in the 2020-2022 range assuming they keep doing what they are doing and grab a WC or two.
The Bryce and Manny saga has blinded us to the other decent players still out there who could effect the NL East. Where is Keuchel going, Marwin, Kimbrel. It's been so very quiet out there on those guys and they could be difference makers in what looks to be a tight race. We should be starting to set-up our predictions for the year, but with these guys still out there, you gotta hold off for now.
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I will say that the Phillies are about my least favorite landing spot for Bryce, because the Phillies are a divisional rival, and while we can argue about how much replacing Adam Eaton with Bryce would make the Nats better, I think we can all agree that replacing Nick Williams/Aaron Altherr with Bryce would definitely make the Phillies a whole lot better. And the more good teams in the division, the tougher life gets for the Nats not only because it's harder to win the division but it's also harder to rack up the wins for a WC berth if they don't.
A little bit of Denver perspective here...everyone here thinks they'll get an Arenado deal done. Team ownership has loosened the purse strings a little recently and seems to feel they're near the crest of the hill and will be competitive for at least the next several years. Whether that means they'll outbid other suitors for Arenado to stay on a long-term deal remains to be seen, of course.
A NL West competed between the Padres and Rox is something I don't think I ever thought I'd see.
Dezo, i think it's widely agreed that Philly is the absolute last place we want Bryce to end up. I want him here, but I've accepted that's unlikely. I'd much prefer him out of the NL East, if not out of the NL entirely, but...my God, the Phillies? They are the absolute worst.
Report is that Bryce turned down MULTIPLE 300M offers. If that is so, does that mean he's holding out for 400M (that was the number that seemed to be leaking from his camp...)? I can't imagine ANYONE goes there. Machado's supposedly a bit of a jerk, but he plays two key defensive positions (one well, one adequately). Bryce is usually an offensive machine (not always, mind you) but his defense is demonstrably ordinary to bad (very bad last year). Yes, he is a marketing juggernaut unlike anyone since Reggie Jackson, but I really don't see anyone biting in the 400M range. Maybe he gets 350? Boras and Bryce are well-suited since both tend to hype player value. I don't want the Nats to overpay that much. Wow--400M!
@Johnny. Highly doubt it will be 400. I think 330-350 is a good bet. One thing I wanted to mention about Machado which nobody discusses. At Camden Yards, he is a 137 wRC+ hitter. IOW almost as good as Bryce. AWAY from that bandbox? 104 wRC+ career...so, Trea Turner. That is a crazy, Coors Field type split. And Petco is in the bottom third of offensive parks. He’s gonna be a .275, 25 HR guy there, not .300, 35 HR IMO.
I primarily don't want to see Bryce in Philly because their fans are so wildly insufferable, and it's just going to be painful going to games and dealing with more of them. If Bryce turns out to be MVP Bryce in Philly for the next 3-4 years, that would be a dagger. Much rather him be out west where I think he would rather be. San Francisco is nice in the summer.
I think he ends up in Philly, or whatever stings more. “The face of the franchise goes to our rival.” It’s all supposed to be part of our story. Remember, we’re a young team in terms of history and we haven’t suffered enough, yet. When we finally do win it all when some of us are old and gray, this will be part of the story. The climb. The sweet ain’t as sweet without the sour. Yeah... Bryce to Philly.
I would really like to see Bryce on the Phillies at $40m/10 years. If he starts out with bad luck, like a low BABIP, and the fans start booing him, it seems possible that his performance could suffer longer-term. Like when Joe Maddon walked him so much that he expanded his zone out of what seemed like frustration. Or in the way that he started out 2018 after a low BABIP.
Obviously, it would be not good if the Phillies signed him for $30m a year for 10 years. He's probably going to be worth more than that even over the long term.
BxJaycobb--
Bryce's bandbox will be Philly's CitizensBank Park. He's hit more career away HRs there than at any other park.
Bryce Harper is the Player To Be Named Later for Jayson Werth. Baseball works in mysterious ways.
@Anon. Right. I can’t truly cannot bear to watch Bryce hit 45-50 bombs a year for the Phillies. I just don’t think I’ll be able to tolerate it. Couple thoughts on them vs SFG. I honestly think it will matter to Bryce that playing for SFG will make it extremely hard for him to be a Hall of Famer due to the drop in homers in that park, whereas in Philly I think he becomes more likely for reasons above—I think it makes him quite likely if not guaranteed short of an injury or steep decline to make it to 500 HR. That said, if you’re the Phillies, consider that Rhys Hoskins is a guy you want playing 1B for 5+ more years. That means that that’s not an option to move Bryce until he’s into his 30s (which frankly I think will be fine....but still, it’s probably a small consideration depending on how they feel about his defense).
Please explain to me why Boras/Harper think they are going to get more than 300 million when the Philly's are the only team who are bidding? The Giants are in the beginning of a rebuild cycle which makes little sense to go all in on Harper when they don't get his best years.
@JC maybe they don’t think they’re gonna get 300 million dollars. Maybe more than the Phillies are bidding and the press doesn’t know it. Who knows. I heard people say Manny’s market was super limited too then he got 300m. Let’s wait to see what happens.
as long as he doesn't go to the Phillies.
It's hard to believe that we are four hours away from the first ST game and Bryce, Keuchel, Marwin, and Kimbrel haven't been signed.
Start cutting revenue sharing for sub-.450 teams and see if they don't start trying to win.
Harper wants more than $300M, Keuchel wants $20M on a 5 years ($100M) and he's 31, Marwin probably wants more than Zobrist money ($56M), and Kimbrel asked for $100M.
Some of these guys haven't signed because of the asking price. We at least know that Bryce could have gone somewhere months ago, but has chosen to wait it out - which is absolutely his right. Not sure how this is the fault of "tanking teams." Unreasonable to penalize small market teams, and base it off of win % no less, to determine their revenue sharing. I'm not sure I agree with the sentiment that Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay should sign Kimbrel to $100M just because Craig asked for it.
OPBN
If there is a penalty for falling below a certain W-L threshold, the value of a win goes up. Since the argument ownership has been making is that the statistical value of WAR from a player doesn't justify their salary, making WAR more valuable means greater willingness to pay for those wins. If the luxury tax is a soft cap, this is a soft floor or soft relegation. As a fan and not a GM or owner, I just want to see more good players playing each other instead of schedules where 1/3 of the teams are total pushovers that aren't even trying.
What is it that creates the notion that Harper is suddenly going to become a 50 homer guy? Remember what they said about Griffey Jr. when he was traded to Cincinnati? He going to become the greatest home run hitter ever. Real world results...he hit 40 ONCE from that day on! And Griffey was a better player than Harper could ever hope to be. Has anyone noticed that the league has learned how to pitch to Harper since his MVP year and he has not approached those numbers since? Did anyone notice his homer totals tanked the second half of last year while his BA improved. What will the reaction of the Philly fans be if he fails to be that 50 homer guy they think they are getting. For $300+ million he better be great. Then again to quote Steve Miller, "Go on take the money and run."
What all of you seem to forget is that you are violating the rights of free agents to pick the place they want to play and live. Suppose the Pirates are 40M below the minimum expenditure required by contract and they make contract offers to FAs to meet the minimum. The FAs turn them down because they don't want to play there. Do you force the FAs to play in a place they don't want to play or do you penalize the team because the FAs wouldn't sign.
As usual all you guys have brilliant ideas as long as you don't think about them.
You could look at how many deep flyouts Bryce had in DC and calculate how many extra homers he would have had if those had happened in Philly. Then subtract how many short HRs made it out in CBP and assume those would be flyouts in Nats Park, since he will play the same number of away games in DC as he played in CBP last year. If that's a net of 15-20 per year, then he should be a 45-50 guy when healthy. This is probably too rough of a metric without getting into launch angles etc., but should approximate it.
@Anon. “Griffey was a better player than Harper could ever hope to be.” Better all around player. Better hitter than he could ever hope to be? No. Griffey never had an offensive season as good as Harper’s by OPS+, wRC+, etc. And actually Griffey never had a 10-WAR campaign either. I think a player’s performance in a major league season is a perfectly fair approximation of what a player can “hope to be”/replicate. Moreover, Bryce gets on base more than Griffey, because he walks way more. That’s an offensive skill that he’s superior to Griffey at, period. You say that the league “figured out” Bryce after 2015. Then what was 2017? He probably was going to win the MVP if he hadn’t slipped on a wet base. I mean he had an OPS over 1.000 for goodness sake. Bryce Harper’s flaw is he is a SUPER SUPER inconsistent player....I would argue the most inconsistent superstar bat of last quarter century maybe. (that’s what he is....his career slash line/wRC+ through first 7 years is almost identical to Reggie Jackson). Given that he has hit 42 bombs at age 22 and is now moving to a bandbox, I think he’ll have a year when he hits 50 for sure. I’d be incredibly surprised if he’s in that neighborhood REGULARLY. I imagine he will have some “bad” years of like 3 fWAR and he’ll have some MVP type years. But I disagree the league “figures him out.” That’s contrary to all data. Offensively he was better last year than first 3 years. In 2017 he was an absolute beast pre-injury with over 1.000 OPS....the second half of last year he again had like a .950+ OPS. Folks. Dude has a career OPS of .900...any given year he will be no lower than an .850 OPS but perhaps as high as 1.100. He’s a great hitter. It’s not super complicated unless you cherry pick and don’t look at the whole picture. If I’m a team considering signing Bryce, I have zero worries about his bat. My hesitation would be: “was last year’s defense an outlier because he was being over-careful and didn’t wanna be hurt or is he trending downward?” I’m fairly confident it was an outlier. Why? you ask. Pretty simple. Outfielders get worse on defense because they get slower or I suppose their arms get weaker. We know from statcast Bryce hasn’t lost even one step since rookie year and when he wants has as much MPH on throws. So I don’t see why he wouldn’t be capable of better defense. But that would be MY concern, not his bat, which is elite and will remain so for at least 5-6 years.
If you wanna say “what if after he gets paid Bryce shows effort in field like 2018?” Ok that’s a valid concern. But a theory that like “Bryce obviously forgot how to run routes and suddenly couldn’t field a bouncing single” last year is just silly. I’ll bet on his returning to a merely sub-par corner OF and having like a .900-.950 WAR next year...something along lines of .275/.410/.550, 5-6 WAR.
I'm sorry Bx...you can quote all the metrics you want but I will take a 56 hr, 147 rbi, 125 runs season all day long over Harper's one MVP season. And Griffey had 7 seasons with that kind of output. The name of the games is runs and Griffey produced runs better than Harper ever dreamed of. Griffey had 4 100+ rbi seasons by time he was 26, Harper one (last year). Harper a better hitter than Griffey...please. I'll agree with one thing, Harper walks more. Different era. And stop with the "if's", if Harper didn't get hurt. He did, let's talk about what actually occurred. Griffey's "if" upside is far higher.
It's as if we only consider offensive stats, because D is so hard to measure. But Machado plays a more important position and plays it well (career dWar of 11.3), now that it's been announced he'll be playing third for SD. Bryce's outfielding last year was occasionally brutal (there are stats, but I've also seen the video and it's not pretty), and it's also a position that is well-stocked throughout the league. So his demand is less than Machado's, at least in that category. I get that Bryce is a brand, unlike anyone else in MLB, but I don't think he will get signed because of that, or at least it doesn't add as much value to his contract as he imagines it does.
Bryce is inconsistent to say the least (injuries and slumps are littered throughout his career, and the fielding is a concern) but wants to be paid as if he's that 10 WAR guy he was in 2015.
Bryce was well-treated and well-compensated by the Nats (except for that service time issue which I believe they resolved amicably). If he feels some of the offers he's getting are unacceptable, he needs to realize he's an outfielder and there are LOTS of those and he's inconsistent, and many bidders are dropping out. He might have been smarter to sign before Manny. Setting a record for salary when there are fewer and fewer bidders looks less and less likely. Uh-oh!
Bryce high walk rate greatly adds to his OPS and is one reason he doesn't have more RBI's. He had 1 HR in Phillie in 2017 and 2 in 2018. I believe they play there 10 times a year. I know it is small sample size, but he hasn't exactly lit it up there and it's not like they've had the greatest pitching staff other than Nola.
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