Is today the day (like I was saying last week, as it is probably the best day marketing wise) or perhaps tomorrow (as I'm hearing more buzz around)? Regardless, please let it happen. Let us be free of the Bryce Harper story, and let the other chips fall where they may so we can really start figuring out the lay of the land going into the season.
The Nats continue to sell Bryce as the reason they didn't win anything, which I guess is as good as anything they are going to come up with that's not "It's Davey's fault and we're sorry we didn't keep Dusty around basically wasting a year to take this shot"
The big news from the weekend, in case you were off doing other things, is that Koda Glover couldn't make it through his first appearance, leaving with elbow tightness. Koda was always supposed to be the next big thing in the Nats bullpen, which especially matters for a team like the Rizzo-led Nats, who tend to put all their pitching hopes into one young basket. But performance has lagged and injuries have dogged and we stand today no real idea of if Koda will ever be an effective pitcher.
The Nats bullpen is the one glaring question mark for a team otherwise deep (line-up contstruction) or top heavy and no worse than any other team at the bottom (rotation).
Assuming the Nats start with 8 men in the pen (reasonable - especially at year's start). Here are the men you can expect will be there and their stats from last year
The Given
Doolittle 1.60 ERA, 0.600 WHIP, 1.89 FIP, 45IP
Rosenthal DNP
Barraclough 4.20 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 4.98 FIP, 55.2 IP
The Likely
Miller 3.61 ERA, 1.127 WHIP, 4.44 FIP, 52 IP
Grace 2.87 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 3.40 FIP, 59.2 ERA
The Probable
Glover 3.31 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 4.69 FIP, 16.1 IP
Suero 3.59 ERA, 1.217 WHIP, 3.48 FIP, 47.2 IP
That's... ok? Doolittle can be a dominant closer but his health is in constant question. 2017, when he threw 51.1 IP was the closest he's been to a full season since 2014. Rosenthal has to be considered an unknown. The rest is a mish-mash. There's potential to be decent but also potential to be lousy and you split the difference and you get the uninspiring likely situation.
The 8th space is a wild card. Joe Ross (5.06, 1.313, 5.85, 16) as a long reliever makes the most sense. Especially given a repeat of the "Hellickson for 5" plan from last season. Solis (6.41, 1.551, 4.92, 39.1) would give them another lefty and also is up for his last chance. Cordero (5.68), Williams (5.59), Voth (6.57), and McGowin (5.87) are all also still on the 40 man. You do see something in common though with these guys. They all kind of stink. It's a lot of small sample sizes, but still, no one is really fighting that impression.
With Koda getting hurt you are already looking to dip two deep into these guys and frankly that's probably two deep too many.
We'll see how this shakes out. I'm sure someone is going to look good in Spring, get fans excited, and win a job by that alone. And if Doolittle and Rosenthal look healthy and right - that's a strong back end. Still, if you are looking for an Achilles heel for the 2019 Nats, that isn't "injuries", this is it. It's a place where the Nats are walking into the season where an average performance would be welcome, and a poor performance unsurprising.
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We need the 2019 version of Matt Albers. I have no idea who that might be, but it's probably not anyone on your list, and unfortunately, it might not be anyone in spring training (roster and non-roster invitees combined).
I think the sample sizes for austen williams and cordero are important. they have good number in minors and had there first experience in big leagues last year. Im not saying they will be amazing but way to early to say they are terrible.
I agree that both and mcgowin cannot be counted on they did not have stuff or command
Koda Glover is dead. This imposter who they ran out there yesterday is a false flag.
There was no evidence of what could have caused the death of the locker room attendant. No blood, no weapons, no sign of a struggle. There was only a strange phrase scratched out on the door of the locker where the body was found. Ursa Mortis.
You forgot Tanner Rainey. He kind of stinks, too, although FanGraphs rates him as the 11th best prospect in the system. Here's a question: who's left among the un-signed that might make for good dumpster diving?
So, would you rather have Bryce on the Phillies or the Dodgers? Emotionally, obviously the Dodgers. But logically? If the goal of the Nats is to get to the World Series, it would seem to be harder to do so with a Bryce-led Dodgers (who without Bryce have been to the last two Series) than a Bryce-led Phillies. You have to play against Bryce much more if he goes to Philly, but then again, so would the Mets and the Braves.
I think even from a more objective, 'What's the best for the Nats' WS chances?' standpoint, I would still go with LA. But its not quite as clear cut as the raw, 'Not the Phillies!! NOOOOOOOOO!' feeling that most of us have right now.....
Screech - Tony Sipp, Adam Warren. Not great but better than a likely last man they'd bring up right now.
GCX - I don't care. I think DC fans are completely on "the Dodgers" in part bc where ever Bryce goes he'll have done so in place of staying in DC. LA, with it's greater success, better history, and location (in general and proximity to Las Vegas) makes it easier to get over than choosing Philly over DC (even if that's a over-simplification of actual events)
Can I ask what the Nats are actually doing with Harper? Mark Lerner refused to trade Harper to the Astros bc they wanted a chance to sign him to an extension or re-sign him. Their efforts of doing that have included on offer for 10/$300 with a bunch of deferrals and no opt outs made 2 weeks before the end of the season. No offers since and multiple interviews with Mark about how the Nats have "moved on." The Nats under orders from Mark Lerner traded away or jettisoned several players for little to nothing. They did not get under the luxury tax (though they likely would have if they had traded Harper). It makes zero sense to me. Hopefully, they are trying to bring him back now or they should have traded him last year.
I think their bullpen is worrisome. The entire knock on Doolittle is that he can't stay healthy. Rosenthal can have control problems and that was before taking a year off. It seem like Mike Rizzo and the Nats are getting more desperate and more willing to take on risk - Corbin, Doolittle, Rosenthal, Dozier, Sanchez, trading away Luzardo, etc.
They absolutely should have traded Harper last year, and I think it's just that ownership (be it Ted or Mark) was overcome by sentiment and the idea that they could make one last push for the division title. They were wrong, and now all they get is a comp pick for Harper.
Bullpen-wise, signing Sipp would be a great move as it immediately pushes Solis out of the way as the third left-hander. Then Suero (whom I always believed would start in the minors) would replace the injured Glover (who had spring training in the pool for when he goes down?). If they want to run an 8-man pen, then Ross as long man for the eighth spot sounds good.
But if they do run an 8-man pen, who gets sent down? With a seven-man pen, the bench consists of:
Gomes/Suzuki (backup catcher)
Difo (utility IF; only guy other than Turner who can play SS)
Taylor (OF4; only guy other than Robles who can play CF unless Turner moves back out there)
Kendrick (2B/3B/corner OF)
Adams (1B/corner OF)
On pure ability, you'd want to drop Difo, but I think basic roster construction requires that you have at least one backup idea for every position. That leaves Kendrick and Adams as the likely odd men out, and neither one of them can be stashed in the minors. I suppose one of them, especially Kendrick, could come down with a mysterious ailment that requires a 10-day DL trip, but I think it may make more sense to have Suero and Ross riding the Fresno shuttle?
In any event, Rizzo, please try to grab Sipp on a 1-year deal. Adequacy is a good thing to have more of.
Dezo - Difo he has an option. They probably start with Solis up (out of options) and if he fails, Difo replaces him.
@Harper They can do that, but I think Dezo's point is that if you don't have Difo on the squad, you have no backup for SS
The Nats go 7 man bullpen. There are few examples of them going 8 man bullpen in the Rizzo era. The rare exception has been when they have 4 starters and 8 relivers, or when the 26th man is added for double headers. There will be 12 pitchers on the opening day roster I'll bet.
This is why I’ve been pushing for Bryce. Because I knew the Lerners weren’t gonna be like take this money and sign Kimbrel and Keuchel. It’s more of an advocacy for “spend the money necessary to have an awesome team while we have so many star players here!” Would be delighted for them to spend elsewhere. But I think if Bryce goes to Phillies, for first time in 7 years i don’t think you can fairly say the Nats are the division favorites. Because i look at rosters and if that happens it’s hard for me to say they are better than either Mets, Phillies, or Braves. They all seem within a few games of each other. It feels like (assuming that happens): Offense (closely bunched with Mets clearly last): 1. Braves 2. Nats. 3. Phillies 4. Mets. Rotation (first three pretty close, then drop off to PHI unless they get Keuchel): 1. Mets 2. Nats. 3. Braves 4. Phillies. Pen (Mets easily best): 1. Mets 2. Whichever of Braves/Phillies gets Kimbrel. 3. Other one. 4. Nats
Bench/Impact Prospects/Depth (Braves easily number 1 with their army of prospects waiting in wings): 1. Braves 2. Nats. 3. Mets. 4. Phillies
As long as Bryce signs with any other team than the Nats, it increases our chances to win the World Series.
I dunno, I kinda like Austin Adams. Looks like the control issues are a problem, but maybe he can put it together to be a decent middle relief for a season?? I dunno, just at a glance I don’t hate him as an option. Nothing super high leverage, just normal 6th or 7th inning of a reasonably close game.
Harper’s been beating the “Nats blame Harper for not winning anything” drum for a bit now, but I don’t see it. The linked article just says that (1) up-the-middle defense should improve with Robles or Taylor in center, and (2) a team without Harper may be a little more likely to hold its players accountable for lazy baseball plays (overthrowing the cutoff, running out ground balls). The first point seems inarguable—Harper was a bad center fielder. The second point is speculative, but it’s reasonable to assume that having your best player routinely make lazy baseball plays (overthrowing the cutoff man, failing to run out ground balls) without being held accountable makes it harder to hold other players to a high standard. To say “Harper is in some ways a flawed player” is not to say that he’s the reason the Nats never won anything.
No one is blaming Harper for not winning. Can't a team decide to move on without silly assumptions being made? Thanks for the laugh!
@ G Cracka X: Yeah, that's right. I'd happily leave Difo off the team for an extra reliever if Martinez thought it was necessary, but the problem is that if Turner gets injured or ejected the Nats end up basically punting SS for the rest of the game (and for however long it takes to get Difo up from Fresno).
In other news, Nolan Arenado just re-upped with the Rockies for 8/$260. Per Fangraphs, Arenado is a slightly worse player than Rendon (he caps out in the high 5.Xs in fWAR while Rendon's been in the 6s three times), but is a year younger and has a better track record of health. So I'd say that a 6-7-year extension with an AAV of $30M-$33M would be suitable (perhaps going higher on the AAV with deferred money, or if it doesn't contain an opt-out; Arenado also got full no-trade protection, which I wouldn't mind offering). Maybe a Boras "swellopt" would be a good option for both sides, like the one Kikuchi got with the Mariners.
There is added value in Arenado as a player over Rendon. I am not arguing against Anthony Rendon as a baseball player, and I am rooting hard for the Nats to sign him to an extension. But Arenado is a significantly more valuable financial commodity to his team and to the game of baseball than is Rendon. He is a legit superstar.
Rendon is the best position player on the Nats. He deserves a big payday. It isn't my money, so whatever achieves his signature is alright by me.
I'm not buying Arenado as a bankable superstar outside his region. It's an overpay by the Rockies, but I guess they're used to doing that to keep their players like they did with Helton, Tulowitzki, Blackmon, etc. This makes the Machado deal look a lot better for San Diego and will probably shut the union up.
Arenado has received over 7 million all star votes since 2016. Rendon is around 500k over the same period.
Arenado is a STAR of the game. A face of MLB. His Jersey was top 20 jersey sales for several years before falling off last year. He is as much a household name to baseball fans as exists in the game.
Not a star outside of his region? How does one define a star then?
I think it is hilarious that Arenado is a star and face of the Colorado franchise and thus deserves a big bonus but Harper is overrated and not worth $30 million/year.
Rendon is a "ball player." We need a team of "ball players."
Maybe I'm wrong, what endorsement deals does Arenado have?
All I have to say is, if Rizzo can sell Scott Boras on the idea that the inferior (but healthier) player is worth more money because he's a more popular/well-known figure in the media and fandom and makes the franchise more money, then yay!
@blovy8
Zamst.
https://www.prweb.com/releases/2014/08/prweb12133809.htm
I'm not sure if that supports your argument or mine so let's call it a draw.
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