I'm not here to defend Davey. I didn't think Dusty should have been fired. I didn't like the hire of Davey. I think he should be fired now. BUT he's not the big reason the Nats have the 2nd worst record in the NL right now. It was the pen - it's now the offense
Just by OPS+ listing
Soto (143 last year, 116 this) - Giving you the overall vague production of an Adam Eaton. Which is fine, but not what the Nats expected and now most definitely need.
Rendon (138, 201) - Hit, but Mr. Slow Healer hasn't played in two weeks.
Bryce (134) - In Philly
Robles (128, 102) - Here and hitting average instead of good. And striking out SO MUCH. And never walking!
Matt Adams (119 for Nats, 98) - Here and hitting average instead of good
Eaton (115, 90) - Here and hitting below average instead of good
Zimm (115, 75) - Here and hitting terrible instead of good, now out which is probably better for the team
Kendrick (111, 166) - OMG! It's someone here, not injured currently, and hitting better than last year. CELEBRATE
Mark Reynolds (110) - In Colorado
Daniel Murphy (106) - Also in Colorado. Good schools I hear
Trea Turner (101, 215*) - broken finger - out for a few more weeks
So in short, the Nats had 11 average or above hitters last year. ONE, count them one, is playing currently and doing better than he did last year. That would be helped, a little, if the guys they brought in were doing well but Gomes, Suzuki, Dozier were never meant to be world beaters and are hitting middling to poorly. They tried the "maybe we'll get another Soto" trick with Kieboom but he's not hitting either.
I said this two days ago, I'll say it again. Until Rendon and Turner on back this is a bad offensive team who needs luck to be above .500 let alone win. This period of the season may bury them if they don't have some luck and soon. A few 1-run wins. A couple guys getting hot right now to carry the team. Something.
Someone asked me the other day about Sanchez and Hellickson and I wanted to give them another start before I looked at them. They've had them and it's not pretty.
Let's start with Hellickson because this is a minor surprise. No one was counting on ol "Two Times Through, that's all I do" to hold up the rotation, but they figured him for 5 innings of decent ball a game. That's what he had been doing for a while now. You first look for some bad luck. LOB% is ok. HR/FB is fine. BABIP is reasonable. So it's not a fluke. GB/FB is roughly the same. What it looks like from the data is maybe better scouting is doing him in. The guys aren't hitting him super hard (soft percentage up), but rather going with what he throws and taking him the other way (from 18.8% to 35.1% opposite field this year) He's not missing any bats (K's basically lowest of career - swinging strikes down to an amazing 5.5% - or about one out of every 20 pitches). The other thing, arguably the biggest thing, is he's lost control. His walk rate is by far the greatest of his career. This is particularly killer because it means they can't even get the 5+ innings they want from him. The positive would be - just 5 starts. Two starts ago he was sitting on a 2.63 ERA and looked ok. But it seems like to control his walks he needs to get hit so he has to choose. Either get the ball over the outside corner and have them hit it, or have it miss and fool no one. There's probably a decent look at the movement of his pitches to be done here. Either way it doesn't look like he'll be the same surprisingly good pitcher as last year. But his history and the decent start suggest to me that if he sucks up the walks he's likely to be a 5IP 4.00 ERA type which is kind of what the Nats were signing up for.
Sanchez is also getting beat up. It's not exactly his last few years in Detroit. There he was giving up a lot of hits and a lot of homers. Here it's homers and walks. Same checks - LOB% fine, HR/FB fine. BABIP fine. Unlike Hellickson it's all about getting hit harder. The 26.3% soft hit rate is down to 19.6%, also his GB/FB rate which was over 1 last year, is back to under 1. More ball hit hard, more hit in the air, that's trouble. He's not having trouble fooling people - or at least his stuff is about the same as it was. But he is getting it over less often and less often early. You fall behind, you get hit. With Sanchez I have less confidence. Last year presented it self as a fluke. the suddenly reversed GB/FB, an oddly low BABIP and high than usual LOB%. He pitched better - that soft hit rate was the best since 2011, and he got lucky. Or maybe he pitched better because he got lucky. Whatever it was, this is more the Sanchez one would expect. If he gets himself under control I would expect him to start giving up more homers. I'm not enthused.
*In 4 games. I let other small sample sizes slide but this is REALLY small. A return game 0-5 might drop him all the way to average
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
15 comments:
Couple these two with a blah BP and the injuries and boom, you have a below .500 team.
thanks for this harper. all things being equal, what do you think would help this team more if management was to go *a little more* in (Lerners never go all in):
BP arm or starter?
saw some folks somewhere talking about bumgarner or samardzjia
feel bad for davey cuz hes a really likeable guy, kind of the opposite of matt williams.
I'm re-upping this. He posted it late on the last post, so many may not have read. He is annoyingly correct.
Anonymous Ole PBN said...
It’s not just Dave. It’s not just the bullpen. It’s not just the hitting. It’s not just the SP. Its all of them. It’s a team game. There are good teams and there are talented teams. The Nats are a talented team that can’t seem to put all phases of good baseball on the field at once. They rarely win games by executing in all phases, most their wins come from sheer talent and just being plain better than their opponent. But with injuries, the talent is an even playing field, and now, especially with yesterday’s lineup, that was an “L” as soon as the lineup card was posted.
This has always been the problem with the Nats. Rizzo fields a good team every year. We have the 6th highest payroll in the league. If we spent it on the pen, we are skimping somewhere else. We have been fortunate to have super talented squads pretty much every year since 2012. But somehow, this team can’t put it all together. I think it has to do with leadership, or lack thereof. Typically, that finger gets pointed at the manager, and in this case I tend to agree. I don’t think Dave is the right guy. But I don’t think firing him is going to light a fire under this laid-back crew. It’s just a culture in the clubhouse. I thought it was Werth. I thought it was Bryce. Now I don’t know what to think, but it’s so embedded in the franchise.
I’m losing faith fast for his group as far as 2019 is concerned.
@Ric/Ole PBN
"I thought it was Werth. I thought it was Bryce. Now I don’t know what to think, but it’s so embedded in the franchise."
I have also thought for a long time that it was Zim, too. He seems to seems breathe mediocrity and lack of accountability. Guy seems to be thinking about his wine collection when he is at the plate.
I'm reminded of back in I believe 2013 a young Bryce was being perhaps a little over zealous in his push for his teammates to try harder down the stretch in the division race, and Zim publicly responded by saying "I'm a professional, I don't need anyone to remind me to do my job," or when in 2016ish launch angle was all the rage and he said he doesn't pay attention to fixing his swing, "it's just baseball" and he just needs to continue what he does (be mediocre as he gets older).
Guy is way too cool for school. I think the young guys are a bit more earnest in their desire to win, hopefully guys like Zim are gone before he can corrupt them!
I think I agree with you, coolsny. If it wasn't Werth, and it wasn't Bryce, maybe it is Zimmerman and Rendon? The two are both so even-keeled; maybe their vibe just sort of quashes any firebrands in the clubhouse? They've both are institutions within the team, so that would explain Ole PBN's point that a laid-back culture is embedded in the franchise.
The only question at this point, IMHO, is whether or not they need a mini-rebuild or a full rebuild. IF, and it's a big if, they can make smart moves, I think a mini-rebuild can work. Soto will figure it out and Robles looks like he has too much talent not to figure it out, that's the skeleton of a solid lineup to work with. Get rid of Zim and replace him with a legitimate big league 1B, and that's not a bad lineup.
Pitching is the tough part. They're stuck with Scherzer's decline and Strasburg, so they need Corbin to be very good and Stras to bounce back. Maybe, and it's a big maybe they can get Fedde or Ross to act as a #5, which means they need a 1B, SP, and a 7th and 8th inning guy. Totally doable with Zim's money coming off the books, coupled with the savings you get from Kieboom vs. Dozier. Personally, and while he's my favorite big leaguer, I'd let Rendon walk, move Kieboom to 3rd and use that money to fill holes as well as reload the farm system this year. Emotionally, it's not at all what I want them to do, but to me it's the smart move.
Several posts here along the same lines: there is no clubhouse leader. Scherzer definitely among the pitchers but among position players? It was Werth, it was Bryce, it should be Rendon or Zim but that's not their personality. Trea Turner? Maybe next year. It's Soto, and while I love seeing him and Robles be BFFs and can absolutely see them as core clubhouse leaders going forward, it's really hurting the team now because they are so young. It reminds me of the Wizards making John Wall a captain his rookie year, it's too much pressure, especially when things are hard early.
Read this Q&A w/Strasburg from a month ago
https://www.mlb.com/news/stephen-strasburg-talks-career-with-nationals
MLB.com: How impressive is Soto?
Strasburg: His character is off the charts. One of the first things that he did after he got called up was, he wanted to learn English, so he can do his interviews in English. I was really impressed with that because I know it’s got to be very uncomfortable. It would be uncomfortable for me to speak Spanish. For him to take that and have interaction with guys who do speak English has been great. He comes on the bus every day the same. He gives everybody fist pumps. I know he is only 19, 20 years old, but he is one of the leaders in the clubhouse.
@JW
Mini rebuild is the only way to go. They have a strong young core to build around. If you go for a full rebuild, you have to try and compete in badness against all the other tanking teams. It's not a recipe for success to go full rebuild
Maybe it's just me, because I've said it at least twice here in the comments, but I always thought this year was the beginning of a soft reboot for the Nats. The Dozier signing was the main evidence for this to me. That and the "we need to be under the luxury tax this year to restart us at the lowest luxury tax rate." They are looking to next year, dozier is a one year fill-in, and they were projecting Kieboom there later this year (not this earlier). Zim's off the books and that's a significant amount of payroll room.
I like that Rizzo fielded a decent roster, not stellar or even very good, but decent...but all the signs and lip-service pointed to a soft re-boot this year to really figure out what they were going to do 2020 and beyond...
What's so frustrating in all of this is the Phillies, Braves & Mets can't get out of their own way and the Nats are just like "yah, we aren't good, and we don't want to lose in pain staking fashion in the NLDS again, so one of you guys take this." I said this last year in late August/early September when the mediocre NL kept giving the Nats a life preserver and I said something to the effect of "I wish the Nats played in the AL East, where they'd be officially eliminated at this point so I wouldn't have to be emotionally invested, and just hope the kids do well in September and whatever the final record ends up being, it is."
I'll say the same thing now except 3.5 to 4 months sooner and a different division: I wish the Nats played in the NL Central. IF everything went the same way the first 29 games, being in the NL Central, they'd be 7.5 games behind the Cardinals right now, but probably more likely 12 or 13 games back (or more!) because you probably substitute that Marlins series for a Reds series, and maybe one of the Phils series for a Cubs series, and the second Mets series for a second Pirates series or something. This afternoon will be their 7th game against the Central division, and they are 1-6 currently going in, all at home, and they were probably lucky to win that 1 game. I've said it on here before and I'll say it again: This team is not good. The bullpen, even with a couple of decent showings here, is not winning in October, but this division is going to keep throwing us life preservers. I'd rather be buried in the Central, and actually enjoy the rest of Spring and summer, than possibly luck out to 86 wins, and a division title, and than get embarrassed in 3 or 4 games by the Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs, whoever in the NLDS.
@Ric
Can't buy Ole PBN's emotional, elegiac assessment.
" . . . an "L" as soon as the lineup card was posted" is the giveaway. Fangraphs would smirk at such an "analysis."
Lilliquist gone.
Kevin Long needs to be next. Actually Mr. One Trick Pony needed to be first. Last year.
I find it amusing how often you must think of me, DK. I have more Fangraph’s jokes to tuck you in each night, if you like? Just let me know.
I agree that they should have kept Dusty, but I'm not sure the logic for why Davey should be fired now? He may not be excelling, but he isn't the main issue this year. Not sure who they would replace him with. Also, everyone would immediately criticize the Lerners for a continuing pattern of cycling through managers.
Thoughts on Lilliquist's ousting? Deserved? How much responsibility should be on him for how the pitching has done this year? Will the new guy, supposedly more analytics-oriented, be any better?
Am I the only person who thinks they should have hired Randy Knorr instead of Dusty and should promote him now. The guy has a ton of managerial experience, knows most of the team and is well respected. Lilliquist should've never been hired, so the firing isn't a bad one. I think pitching coach might be the most important non-player outside of the GM on a team. Davey should get canned, even though this year isn't all his fault. He should get canned because he's not good.
I don't know why people would want to fire Long. He's a good coach, and has a great track record of success, but you can't make chicken salad out of chicken sh!t.
Post a Comment