The Nats are still not in a good position. They are 8 games under .500. They are 9 games out of first with 106 games to play, behind a team you probably wouldn't have them as being 9 games better over 162 games. They are 6 games out of the second Wild Card with 7 teams between them and that consolation prize.
However because they have played better recently we can have fun plotting a path forward. We talked about it two days ago but let's set the next easy stretch in stone now.
The Nats start with three games in Cincinnati (26-30, 5-5 in last 10) , then host the White Sox (27-29, 15-15 in May) for a quick two*, then at Padres (29-27, 12-14 in May) for 4, at Chicago for the next two**, then a 4 game set at home versus Arizona (28-29). What would you expect a 90+ team win to do against this schedule? Win every series. Taking the White Sox as a 4 game set that means 2-1 over Cincy, 3-1 over the White Sox, 3-1 over the Padres, and 3-1 over the D-backs. That's 11-4. That's a little much. Usually when you are saying "win every series against bad teams" you are asking for winning two out of every 3 games. But the Nats play three teams four times each during this stretch and winning those is a higher clip. Think of them together and you'd want them to win 8 of those 12, not 9. So they split one of those sets... 10-5. I think 10-5 is the goal.
If they go 10-5 they will be 34-37, they will likely make up at least a game on the other NL East teams and then face an opportunity to directly make up ground. But we'll talk about then then. Assuming they get there.
Can they do 10-5? Sure. Why. Well they have Corbin, Scherzer, and Strasburg pitching like they should. This sets up the Nats well. good team will win like 2/3rd of these games. Assuming that holds you are starting at like a 6-3. Getting the 4-2ish needed in the other ~6 games will be harder. I don't want to depend on Sanchez or Fedde. I don't want to depend on the bullpen. That means depending on the offense to just mash it's way to some wins.
You can do that several ways but I think for the Nats the plan would be - 2 stars, 2 good hitters, no more than 1 hole. They have the two starts. Rendon is hitting great. (.288 / .406 / .588 since he's back) and Soto is hitting great (.358 / .436 / 1.048). They have the two good... for now. Kendrick is hitting very good (.338 / .345 / .588) and I like that to hold up. Parra (.940 OPS) and Suzuki (.831 OPS) are the other guys hitting good. I'm not as confident in them, and neither is a full-time player. But take those three as a group, and include guys like Robles, Adams, and Turner... I bet at least two of all those are hitting well. The no more than one hold thing though... that's the hurdle. Gomes, when they use him is struggling (.608) Dozier when they use him is not much better (.689). I don't like either to turn it around and while neither of these guys has to see a lot of playing time, they will certainly be worked in. The same way I like Parra, Suzuki, Robles, Eaton, Adams, and Turner to shake out with at least one good bat during this stretch... well I'd bet on them having one hole too. So it's going to be tough. Strikes me as more of a 9-6 stretch. That's normally ok - it's a 97+ win pace over the course of a season. But given the hole even just being one game off 10-5 I think won't be enough.
Looking at this team - I see the top end starting pitching being good enough to make this comeback. But either the back end of the rotation or the bullpen has to surprise or the offense needs to take a step up. I think the latter is most likely but I still look at this squad and see a team one bat short. Someone has to step up. Robles/Eaton/Adams/ Suzuki have to be good. Turner hast to be a mini-star. Something has to happen here for this run to happen.
*Giolito? Not unless there is a rainout in Chicago and no DH schedule - he's pitching Sunday
** Giolito? No again if the schedule holds - two off days after their
Sunday match means he's pitching next Sunday too - right before Nats
series
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14 comments:
I agree with almost all of this. Only thing I want to ask about here is Dozier. Why be pessimistic on him turning it around? He's currently sporting a 74 wRC+. THE BAT is a bit bullish on him, expecting a ROS wRC+ of 113, but ZiPS, Steamer, and Depth Charts expect him to rebound with a 102/103 wRC+.
Is your skepticism based on more recent results? i.e. Last year's issue was supposed to be knee-related, but now that it is healed and he's putting up more of the same, this is who he is
@GCX
Yes, over the last two weeks dozier has had an ~.830 OPS. I'm not saying hes back to any all star form but he has improved. hes not the hole he was in april. I don't expect him to finish the season with an OPS above .800, but Harper do you think he could finish with one above .700?
The only way we event get into the hunt for a WC is if our Big Three all stay healthy - and I think we will be due for a Strasburg or Corbin DL (oh, sorry, I guess i should say IL) stint right around the all star break.
another thing which is cool for the nats this year, if you support players' individual accomplishments, is how many players we might send to the all star game this year.
Rendon should be a lock
Doolittle should be lock (or will he not have enough saves since the nats suck?)
Soto should get serious consideration if he keeps up his form
Scherzer
Strasburg
Corbin
Could we possibly see three starting pitchers get sent to the AS game?
Uh, bullpen?
After last Thursday's game against the Mets I deactivated the Nats At Bat alerts. I was going to be busy over the summer with work, basketball, etc and I didn't figure I'd be missing much anyways, so can I take some credit at least for this mini comeback?? :)
While our team is still 9 game back, silver linings will help us endure. So, the all-star game...
- Rendon: should be a lock as a reserve, but not as a starter. Thats Arenado.
- Doolittle: not sure how gets in, unless he is leading the league in saves? He's sporting a 3.52 ERA at the moment and there are a lot of good relievers out there with better numbers.
- Soto: You figure Yelich and Bellinger are locks to start. Maybe as a reserve? And let's remember its a popularity contest, so it'll be Bellinger, Yelich, and the dude from Philly leading the league in Ks. Or maybe Schwarber because he sucks and nobody knows it.
- Scherzer: Needs a couple more wins and for that ERA to get a little lower.
- Strasburg: I don't see why not?
- Corbin: the easiest choice of the Big Three, so far. There are just a lot of NL pitchers throwing really well right now. Ryu, Davies, Paddack, Castillo, Greinke, Woodruff, Fried, Soroka... pretty crowded field, and Kershaw is coming along as well.
@coolsny:
Why do you think Doolittle is a lock? Save percentage, ERA, WHIP, among other stats, put him at the bottom of the league when it comes to closers. His opponents batting average is 30th in the league, the worst in all baseball.
I like the guy. I just disagree with your assessment that he is a lock for the ASG.
I also think Soto won't get serious consideration. He's our best outfielder. But he won't crack the top ten in OFs considered, let alone the final six that are voted on/selected.
Rendon is finally getting national attention. Maybe because he'll be one of the top free agents next year? But again, Arenado and Bryant seem to be the front-runners.
And when it comes right down to it, fans and coaches seem to pass on deserving players if they are on a crappy team.
Damn it, Ole PBN! Your comment was posted as I was typing mine.
What @OlePBN said.
i speak in hyperbole.
this is what im hoping for.
having the most all stars in team history in a lost season would be so perfect.
The default thinking is "staff ace or best reliever is X team's ASG representative," so it will be harder on pitchers. Doolittle doesn't have good numbers, regular or advanced, while Strasburg and Corbin are not as good as Max. My guess is the team gets one or two guys in. I hope they're so good over the next few weeks that I end up wrong. Also, Gomes is on the ballot while Suzuki is not, which is crap.
That's 3 straight series wins....but still haven't swept a 3 or 4 game series as the opening series of the year is still a problem. Winning 2 of 3 is great and is about a 120 win pace, but when you start as slow as they did playing these bad teams they are going to have to get a couple sweeps in this stretch.
I know many people, including players and coaches, still insist on looking at Wins and Losses, but Scherzer and Strasburg have been better than Corbin this year. They’ve just not gotten the run support and been hurt more by the defense. (FanGraphs has Max and Stras as the two best pitchers in baseball thus far, notice Giolito is 7th):
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0
Max David, if winning 2 of 3 were a 120 win pace, we would be set if we could do it. Winning 2/3 is a 108 win pace, which would get us to 95 wins, and almost certain to make the playoffs if not win the division. If this team can take 2/3 from here on out, we'll be just fine.
Just get back to .500 and take it from there.
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