When the Nats lost Trea Turner on April 3rd to a hand injury it was unfortunate, but not something to worry about. Unless you really believe in single year defensive WAR stats (and you should NOT really believe in single year defensive WAR stats) Trea was an important cog, but not the Nats best player. Almost every team will suffer through an injury to an important player, and should be able to soldier on with little effect. It was a typical baseball problem, just earlier than you'd like.
When Rendon went out on April 21st the situation became problematic. He is arguably the Nats best player. Even with a decent back-up in line (Kendrick) now you had two important cogs out. That's harder to overcome. Not impossible mind you, but a challenge. Especially when Kendrick was needed to spell some bad play elsewhere. This problem doesn't happen to every baseball team, but it isn't uncommon. Maybe half will fight out a stretch like this. It's tough but a playoff team should be able to play good baseball, if not winning baseball.
When Juan Soto went out on May 1st, things changed to dire. Soto had been expected to be a huge bat for the Nats this year and while he wasn't exactly doing that he was still producing. Now you had three important cogs out. Your depth would be tested as far as it could reasonably be expected to go. And honestly all you'd be expected to do is hold ground give the players lost. .500 would be a fine run while this situation was happening.
When Matt Adams went out on May 5th things it became a situation of survival. Zimmerman, who Adams was replacing, being gone wasn't a huge deal because Adams was the very capable, arguably better, back-up for him. Adams isn't an important cog, but he's a decent piece. But more importantly, at this point, with three infielders and an outfielder out, you start to dig past your expected depth. If this was the only injury Kendrick or Dozier might be manning first. With this being the fourth you force someone not expected to play at all into an every day role. At this point the expectation is only to not be embarrassing. A 70 win pace would be fine. Winning 4 out of every 10 games more likely hoping you don't run into tough competition.
Suffice to say the Nats were in a bad spot the past few days. No team could be expected to continue to produce at major league levels with three important bats and another starter out. You'd only be expected to survive. But here are some records
After Trea : 8-7
After Rendon : 3-6
After Soto : 2-2
After Adams : 0-3
The Nats didn't play well enough, in my opinion, after Trea went down. They didn't play well enough, in my opinion, after Rendon went down. They did play well enough after Soto went down, and not after Adams went down, though those are both a more limited number of games.
The overall count after Rendon is 5-11, after Trea is 13-18. To me it's tough to look at those numbers and say "Davey is doing a good job keeping things together". Where here do you see leadership translating to something on the field?
It would be fine if Davey had a history of doing such. It's five weeks of baseball and things happen. Catch even breaks and the Nats are maybe sitting at 16-19 which is more reasonable. We all know the bullpen issues. But Davey doesn't have this history. Last year's team faced some adversity and also crashed at one point running off a 9-21 stretch.
He may be keeping the clubhouse together but the results are about as bad as can be. There are only 3 teams in baseball with a worse record. I ask you again - Where do you see leadership translating to something on the field? If it doesn't translate to something on the field, what is the value of it? If 200 games is not enough time for us to see it, how many games would be?
No manager is going to turn this ship around into a 90+ win playoff team. It might happen but it would be luck as the team would have to play like a 97 win squad the rest of the year just to get to 90 wins, which is above nearly all expectations. But another manager might get this team to play simply to expectations, something Davey has continuously failed to do, even adjusting for the situation at hand. Play to expectations, get a few breaks, and you still might get a Wild Card or luck into winning this flawed division.
I suppose it could be just bad luck. The breaks not going his way for 200 games leading him to be about 10 games under where the expected W-L would be based on runs scored. I guess it could be. But is there anything here that makes you believe it's worth the chance that it isn't? Obviously we aren't in the clubhouse. Our call from out here is only slightly informed. But still to me the call is glaringly obvious. This isn't working.
Rendon is back now so we'll see. Can they survive? Getting to 4-6 on this trip is unlikely. 3-7 we hope? Then the stretch that should break Davey for eveyone if this level of play continues. Mets at home, Cubs at home, Mets away, Miami at home. Some tough games but not playing good teams on the road tough. A stretch that even a hobbled Nats team should be able to find more wins than losses. If they can't do that, I don't know what to say to even the most ardent defenders of Martinez.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
15 comments:
I would be surprised if Martinez is the manager when the Nats return from LA, unless they magically go .500 or better for the rest of the road trip. The Nats are terrible mostly because of injuries (bad luck) and an abominable bullpen (Rizzo's responsibility, but probably the Lerners' fault). But Dave M. is not even making the most of what he has on the roster, and he clearly failed to make the most of his roster last year. I expect an interim manager for the rest of the year. The Nats will then look for a new manager over the winter, although if the Lerners aren't willing to pay market price for an experienced manager, I doubt the manager we get will be much better than our current manager.
Martinez continuing to bang his head on the crumbling Jennings wall last night sealed it for me. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt, that the injuries would have been too much for even a HOF manager to deal with, but putting Jennings in and sticking with him after everything we've seen from him since his call-up, and in-game last night, removed any remaining doubt for me. It is time...
The Lerners are going to have the mother of all freakouts when they see how empty the stadium is on the next home stand, because the team’s fair-weather fans (which describes most of them) are jumping ship. This will probably spur them to take drastic actions out of sheer desperation.
I guess the plus side is tickets are about to get dirt cheap!
I get the Martinez criticism, Gr8day4Bsbll, but if not Jennings... who? Sipp was on the IL. Grace? I could easily see the same meltdown happening - as he's done it many times before. It was 3-0 in the 7th and nobody except Barraclough and Doolittle are stepping up. What is Martinez supposed to do?
There's the theory that the bullpen failure is Martinez' fault, but I think it goes to the pitching coach/bullpen coach before him.
How neat would it be to have a pitching-first manager for the pitching-first Nats? Like, say, Bud Black? The Lerners deserve some credit for spending big on Max (and most likely on Stras and perhaps Corbin but the jury is out for a couple of years there), but their refusal to pay even passable money for a quality manager is bonkers. Brian Dozier, he of no bat and minimal defense, is getting paid double Girardi's likely annual salary. Perhaps as much as triple what Dusty would have cost per year.
The team is currently a mess, agreed.
I'm not sure Martinez would be allowed to plead mitigating circumstances--not on this site, judging by most commentators--but losing the team's three best hitters (and the entire defensive left side) for an extended period must count for some consideration.
The bullpen issues we've flogged to death, but Harper warned us this could happen well before Martinez began handling it. And now that it's happened, why should we be surprised?
Harper suggests a decent big league team ought to weather the current storm without drowning (so to speak). But when Stevenson, Difo and MAT (what happened to that revamped swing?) are your lifesavers, you've got trouble with a capital "T." The Nats aren't a good enough offensive team to afford three defensive replacements on their bench.
This is just a long way of asking: Are there--or can you cite--any teams that have won championships in spite of the manager? And an adjunct: Do we really know whether or not the players have given up on Martinez?
Now the Nats are supposedly dumpster diving for Parra. Yay...
As for Martinez, I thought he should have been fired at the end of last season. I don't think they fire him now though. Davey has at least until the dog days of summer to right the ship, because he has the excuse that there's been too many injuries. Yes he's underperformed with and without those players, but it's still a passable excuse.
If things don't turn around by mid to end of June, I want to see Martinez gone and a host of players (starting with Rendon) traded. That's the smart decision. Yes I want Rendon extended, but given the dumpster fire that this team is, do we really see him signing long term when he's the jewel of free agency at this point? Of course not. So trade him, get something in return, and retry signing him in the offseason.
Will the Nats do that? Of course not. If they had the guts to do that, that exact scenario would have played out last year with Harper. The Lerners will sit on their hands until the trade deadline, dump a few useless players for cash considerations, blame injuries for the lost season, and sign a rookie, no-name manager in the offseason after firing Davey within 20 seconds of the final game of the season ending
I'm not a 'Davey is not the problem' guy, but this year, I don't think he's the biggest issue. Last year made more sense. This year? Much bigger issues (luxury tax, injuries, bullpen construction, streaky hitting that started hot then went stone cold).
Did you know the Nats are 1st in Starting Pitcher WAR, and 17th in Bullpen WAR? They've had some bad bounces too. Not Martinez' fault
I would posit that the Diamondbacks won in spite of Bob Brenly. That, and ridiculous luck against Rivera in Game 7.
I bet they're too cheap to dump Martinez unless he loses the clubhouse and somehow pisses Rizzo off. All this team is doing is lowering expectations, and I can even see the team competing enough down the stretch enough to save his job if it's a rebuild by then. I mean, why bother dumping him if you're not getting Girardi or someone good?
Not a Martinez fan after last year when Rizzo had to break the bullpen just to maintain normal order on the team. For a manager, that's fireable right there.
One critique of Harper's post: the Lerner's definitely don't believe that the manager contributes value. If they did, they would have invested in it. Now that Martinez is not providing value, that's just confirmation of the Lerner's existing bias. It's hardly something they can fire him over.
A playoff teams today needs a bullpen of 7/8/9 who can be relied on. The Nats don't have this which means they keep losing games in the 7th or 8th. When it was obvious that Rosenthal wasn't going to succeed, they should have immediately fixed the problem. The solution is out there, they just decided not to pay for it. It's like deciding not to fix the roof. Now it's probably too late. With a depleted offence they can't outscore the problem.
Watching today's game. Shocked that Martinez doesn't just quit in disgust.
I think there's a long list of problems that need to be addressed ahead of Davey, but I don't think he's very good. Last year's bullpen drama is a great example of that. Like Matt Williams a few years back, he has an amazing knack for all of his judgment calls to pan out in the worst way imaginable.
Rizzo is not the problem. Anyone saying otherwise is clueless. Even if Rizzo goes, what do you replace him with? There's isn't any potential GM out there who is simultaneously (1) better than Rizzo, (2) available, and (3) willing to work for the Lerners.
We talked about Lilliquist's failures as a coach, most notably in his preparation (or lack there of). He was god awful at this. Rizzo said so as much at the close of Spring Training: "We are not ready." As we have found out, the story went something like this: a bullpen pitcher tells the bullpen coach that he is not available for a given game; bullpen coach relays the info to Lilliquist; Lilliquist would make his own judgement and it never goes to Martinez; said pitcher gets put into the game while not being mentally/physically prepared, feels betrayed, and... stinks up the joint.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/03/nationals-shake-things-up-fire-pitching-coach-derek-lilliquist/?utm_term=.8a824d555012
Remember when Kelley slammed his glove and glared into the dugout? Remember when Kintzler was throwing shade? I have a suspicion that Lilliquist was behind this, and the players were made the scapegoat by Rizzo (which was a BS move).
I'd argue the pitching coach and hitting coach are more important than the manager. Just as the president's cabinet is more important than the president. Kevin Long has got nothing to work with, when so many regulars are on the IL. Lilliquist had a full staff - last year and this year - and his approach was not good for this group. Remember when Mike Maddox had the SPs keep the book the day before their scheduled start? That speaks to an emphasis on preparation, one that Lilliquist didn't seem to value. "I'm more laid back." Ever heard this before? He wanted to be a sounding board, not a coach. Sounds like he was an adviser/friend more than anything else, so good riddance.
There is a reason for this pitching mess, and we'll probably never know until Svrluga does his stupid autopsy at the end of the season. But I think Lilliquist was more of the problem than people realize. More than DM is at least, in my opinion.
This team is a mess but at least they are showing some late game fight. Even though I said they maybe behind the Marlins by the time the month ended, injuries or not by the end of the season they should be better than the Fish, but I can't see any higher finish than 3rd in the division and about 7th or 8th overall in the NL and that's really pushing the envelope. My expectations have officially hit 0 for the rest of the season. I'm expecting a 4th place finish and about 75-80 wins when its all said and done, anything better than that is cake.
Post a Comment