19-31
47-42
It's an amazing 28-11 run that any team should be proud of. But it did come at a cost. The cost was the Nats easy games.
If you looked now at the Nats schedule you would earmark what games for the "garbage gimme wins" of the season? The Marlins. The Orioles. Knowing the Nats would play the AL Central the Royals and the Tigers. 29 games in all. Three Marlins games were done by the time 19-31 was "achieved", leaving 26 easy games in the remaining 112 games. That's a pretty nice set - almost a quarter of the remaining games were against teams you'd expect an average team to beat and a good team to dominate.
Today that stands at 10 for the remaining 71. Now only about 1 in 7 games fit that bill. They catch those first Oriole games early so it will quickly be 8 for the remaining 66, or fewer than one in every 8.
Looking at it the other way - after starting 19-31, the Nats had 16 easy games in the 49 games between them and the break. That's one in every three. It was an ideal situation in which to come back. They had that and they had health. There was no excuse NOT to make a run.
But to the Nats credit they didn't merely make a run, they crushed it. They might have lost an extra game to ARI and ATL at home, but they won extra games in sweeps against the Marlins twice, in a two game set at ATL early on, and in that sweep against vs the Phillies. They took 3 of 4 against the Marlins early and in the White Sox split set. That's probably an extra win too. There were no real stumbles. You might have pegged a division winning team to go up to 24-15 here. 28-11 is a real accomplishment. They did everything they had to and more.
Now do it again.
At 19-31 the Nats were staring maybe at the easiest remaining schedule in the NL. In 5 games - whatever their record is - the Nats will likely be staring at maybe the hardest remaining schedule. Maybe the Mets crash and burn can make a difference? True, they are stumbling but the Nats have played the Mets 13 times already.
In a way they will have it in their own hands. 14 games remain against the Braves and if the Nats can win... say 9 of them that will put them in the driver's seat. But 8 of those games are away and the Braves also still have KC, and 7 games against MIA, and 9 games against the Mets, and their set vs the White Sox - who probably aren't good as much as feasting on the Royals and Tigers (13-7 so far) (and if we inlcluded them in the Nats easy games makes the easy/hard schedule disparity even greater). The Nats have Baltimore? The Braves have little better, probably about to sell Toronto. The Nats still have three games against moribund San Fran? So do the Braves, except they get them in Atlanta. Nats have 3 vs Cincy at home left? Braves have 4.
All that is to say - the Braves have maybe the easiest schedule in the NL from now on so if the Nats want to catch them the Nats will have to do their own work to make it happen.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
31 comments:
So happy the Nats turned it around! I think they will be buyers at the deadline, barring a post-ASB crash right out the gate.
I think +5 is about right for this team at this point of the season. Now that they've played a half season+, we can say that they have very good starting pitching (outside of the #5 slot), good hitting, a good closer, but an otherwise shaky bullpen. This is exactly what the overall consensus was in spring training. To quote Dennis Green, "They are who we thought they were!"
Get, at the very least, a reliable setup guy to patch up the 8th inning, and this team could be dangerous.
Still don't think we are catching the Braves. But at this point I feel fairly confident we will be playing in the wildcard game. Which is nice.
Harper, I suggest you re-evaluate your view of the Phillies in thinking about scheduling and "easy vs. hard" games that are coming up. The Phillies are bad. They are not mediocre. They did not just play a tough stretch of teams. They are a bad team of baseball players. By BaseRuns, the only teams worse than the Phillies in the NL are the Marlins and the Giants. Only the Pirates and the Rockies have a worse pitching staff than the Phillies.
So the Nats schedule looks a bit easier when the Phillies are properly evaluated, but that doesn't help much because (a) the Nats play the Phillies right ought of the gate, which further bunches their games against bad teams together and (b) the Braves also play the Phillies.
Caveat: even though the Phillies are a bad team and are not going to make the playoffs, the games against them (in July and August) are nonetheless important because of the standings.
The Phillies are not bad. That’s nuts. They’re mediocre. Their run differential is basically zero. They’re a .500 team. There are no BAD teams in the NL except the Giants and Marlins and MAYBE Mets if they keep spiralling. That’s it. It’s the most parity I’ve seen in a league ever.
@Harper. Unless the Nats make a move to change the roster (5th starter and multiple relievers) they’re not catching the Braves. At full health they’re not as good as them. The Braves have a much better offense and only slightly worse pitching overall and a better bench, and way more depth, including a farm system ready to support the team. They’re better and have a 6 game lead. The Nats are playing for a WC.
BTW I would note that the Marlins have been playing everybody except the Nats tough recently, and been a .500 team for like a month. They’ve been beating up the Phillies and almost just won a series vs the Braves. With their pitching, which is legit good, they’re not *that* bad and can win any game. All of that said, the Nats aren’t going anywhere if they don’t improve the pen. They’re just not. It’s atrocious and continues to be. They’ve been unable to hold multi run leads against the worst offenses in baseball. Think about that. It doesn’t matter if Stras, Max, or Corbin are pitching if you go into the 7th or 8th with a 1-2 run lead, because this pen won’t hold those leads against teams like Phillies, Braves and Cubs. They will lose a LOT of those games unless Rizzo makes some deals. Like...now.
I agree with the other commenters: there is no way that the Nats are going to catch the Braves, unless the Braves suffer terrible injuries to key players and the Nats stay healthy -- and that just won't happen. It's all about the WC -- and ideally getting enough of a cushion so that Max can pitch the WC game.
Agreed, Bx. Things look good now, but there's gonna come a point in late August, if not sooner, when everyone's arm is dead and the wheels come off. Our only good reliever is on pace to exceed his most career appearances, by a lot--and he's a guy with a history of arm trouble. We can't seriously expect to compete down the stretch with Fernando Rodney as our setup man.
Got it: In front of every silver lining is a dark cloud.
I honestly would rather the Nats stand pat at the deadline. What do they have to give in trades? And as others have pointed out, they make all the moves necessary and they still likely won't catch the Barves. The Nats are headed towards Giants territory if they're not smart with how they rejuvenate the farm. Selling the farm for a 50-50 game to get into the playoffs would be baffling to me
SM - Not true! If you are a Braves fan you played a hard schedule and because the Phillies have underperformed and the Nats had a terrible start you have a 6 game lead and an easy schedule in front of you. If you can just split with the Nats, and go .500 in your other games against easy competition, the Nats will have to go 36-23 against a harder set to catch you. That's a 99 win pace! So for them there's just a fluffy white cloud. But that's probably not the example you wanted me to use.
Ha!
Right about the cloudless-sky, visibility-unlimited Braves. They not only have a lush farm, but also the most energetic and aggressive GM (Alex Anthopoulos)in the big leagues (probably because he apprenticed in Montreal during the Expos' death throes).
No, the example I wanted you to use was . . . Philadelphia!
Sorry, the Phillies are bad, and they are not going to get better (unless they get two new starting pitchers that are actually good at the deadline). Their run differential is +2, which means they are close to .500, which suggests they are mediocre. Six teams in the NL have a worse run differential, which means that eight teams have the same or better run differential, which suggests the Phillies are on the low end of mediocre, but are still mediocre. These teams are the Mets, Marlins, Brewers, Pirates, Padres, and Giants.
But if you look at BaseRuns, the Phillies shoot down to -47, making them worse than all but two of those teams. The Mets, Brewers, Pirates, and Padres all have played better than the Phillies but without the same sequencing luck. The reason is that the Phillies' pitching staff is terrible but has been lucky at stranding runners/not giving up hits with men on base to the tune of 0.5 runs a game. If you look at the individual performances - rather than the team as a whole - there is absolutely no reason (a) to think this lucky performance is going to continue OR (b) to expect the pitchers actually to perform better than they have, luck notwithstanding.
The Phillies are bad. They are not Marlins bad, but they are worse than the Mets (who are mediocre). The Phillies' ROS winning percentage will be worse than the Mets'.
Anon's right; the Phils are just not as good as luck has led them to believe. Plus, they've already lost McCutchen for the season, and Arietta is now potentially looking at surgery (in addition to having performed relatively poorly), and as was noted last month, while Nola is getting back to being an ace, Eflin is simultaneously getting back to being bad at baseball, so that regression is leaving them right where they started, with one good starting pitcher and a bullpen that's barely worse than ours.
Like everyone else has said, the Nats are probably not catching the Braves because the Braves are a good baseball team and have a lead. Even if the Nats are a true-talent better team (which I'm not claiming they are), they're not likely to haul the Braves down from behind without a lot of luck or if they make substantial roster improvements and the Braves don't. But a WC slot is within reach, and is nothing to sneeze at, especially when we happen to have the best pitcher in all of baseball to start that game. Championships have been won from the wild card, especially when it's not too big a stretch to postulate that the Nats may be the third-best team in the NL right now. Fangraphs gives us a 78% chance to make the playoffs and 538 a 58% chance and both of those numbers are, in fact, third-highest in the NL, ahead of the Cubs and Brewers.
I disagree on Atlanta. The goal is to try to get it to 3-4 games by September 1. That is approximately 1-2 games a month for July and August. They need to play well in the 14 games against Atlanta they have left. They need to play well and try to win as many series as possible. However, they no longer need to do anything crazy like win 10 of 12. It's great if they do, but their recent great stretch of play gives them a little bit of wiggle room. Atlanta isn't going to win 96-97 games imo. I could be wrong. I have definitely been wrong before, but I think Atlanta is more of an 88-90 win team. I think Washington can get into that range. They have to stay focused. Win series. Minimize losing streaks. Maximize winning streaks. Their top 4 starting pitchers have been great. The offense has slowed down some. The BP is still iffy. IMO the Nats could win the division, win one of the wildcards, or flame out all together. Hopefully, it will be fun to watch.
The Nats to get to 90 wins have to go 43-30 over the last 73 games. That is a 95 win pace over those 73 games. The Braves would have to go 36-37. Odds definitely favor Atlanta to end up somewhere between 90 and 95 wins. We'll see what happens. I don't think Atlanta has really had a cold stretch yet. Most teams do go through a rough patch at some point during the year.
In the second half replace Dozier with Kieboom/Kendrick. Make Suzuki the primary catcher backed up by Gomes. Find a legit setup reliever. Then the Braves go down.
Would a positive run differential and a negative baserun differential indicate luck or good lineup construction? I'd guess it's a mix of both.
So we need... no bad months, and something like a 18-6 run somewhere in the middle against the 11th hardest remaining schedule (Braves at 26th?), and everyone stays healthy. Punchers chance if we can pull of a decent BP trade, though I'm not sure what's really out there for us right now... could you get a bucket of balls for MAT, Voth or Fedde? Three way deal with a contender for a bat (ship one of Kendricks, Adams, Parra, Gomes / Suzuki?).
@anon433
Given the history of Nats pitchers who were bad here being good other places, maybe someone will take a their chances on them Ross/Voth/Fedde.
It seems plausible that BaseRuns would undervalue very heavily unbalanced lineups compared to more balanced ones. You would expect more good outcomes sequenced together in the former case. For the Phillies, almost all of their sequencing "luck" has ocurred on the pitching side, so for them it cannot be lineup construction
BOOM! Thank you Anonymous! We don’t always agree, but AMEN.
I agree the Nats should likely stand pat at the deadline partly because of the likely cost to add relievers and partly due to the state of their farm system. HOWEVER, if they're going to make a move, they need to make it during the All Star Break because of the schedule. Coming out of the ASB is arguably the toughest remaining stretch of schedule the Nats have. Therefore, this is when they're most likely to need a decent pitcher in the 8th inning. Consequently, between now and the the trade deadline a good 8th inning option could mean 1-3 wins (not 1-3 WAR), which is a huge swing. So if they're going to spend, they should try to spend now.
Well, I don't think that bullpen upgrade includes a "recovered" Barraclough...he's blowing saves in the minors...plural
@Jay said: "Atlanta isn't going to win 96-97 games imo. I could be wrong. I have definitely been wrong before, but I think Atlanta is more of an 88-90 win team."
You are probably wrong again. As it stands right now, Atlanta is on pace to win 96 games There's no reason to think they will now play considerably worse, when they've now got the easiest remaining schedule in the NL.
Harper- Nats are playing at a .720 clip, or 100 win clip. With 73 games remaining they have to go 53-20 to maintain. Lofty goals without some serious changes in the pen.
With said couple of additions I could see them going more like 47-26, and a 94 win season.
They won't be going 47-26 for the remainder of the season. Their .720 clip included the dregs of the league. Their second half is among the more difficult schedules in the NL. To go 47-26 would to play at a .644 clip. Only the Dodgers and Yankees are playing at a better pace. We aren't going to suddenly become the Yankees the second half of the season. Not with our tough schedule and bullpen.
I mean, come on everyone. Baseball really does come down to #math. We are a .528 team, strengthened by a great run against the second, third and fourth worst teams in baseball. Now you think we will become a .644 team?
SMH.
@Ric, I don't think, I KNOW the Nats are going to go better than 43 wins in the second half. Davey Martinez and Mike Rizzo told me so!
I said they needed to go 9-3 before the break. They were 10-2, and frankly should've been 12-0. Now they need to show they can play .500+ against the better teams they'll be facing. They also need to continue to dominate the weaker teams, win the H2H against the Phillies and Mets, and they really need to win at least nine out of the remaining 14 against the Braves. To be sure of catching them, the Nats need to go 10-4. Splitting or picking up one game ain't going to get it done. That's difficult, but it's what you have to do when you get as far behind as the Nats did.
@Sammy Kent: sadly, that's just not going to happen. The Braves are a better team than the Nats. The Nats will do well to split the 14 games, and keep themselves in a wild-card slot. And the Phillies are a .500 team, so no easy games there. If you have the bad luck of facing the rejuvenated Aaron Nola several times, it will be that much harder. And the Mets still have Jacob DeGrom. So even though they are bad, they are not as bad as Miami, KC, Detroit (or Baltimore).
Let's also remember that most of the contenders, not just the Nats, will bring in reinforcements at the trade deadline. In fact, given how little the Nats have to offer, I expect other teams (including the Braves) to be able to upgrade themselves MORE than the Nats.
@PotomacFan, I never said I thought it would happen, or could happen, only that it NEEDED to happen. And it does. All the ducks have to line up and stay lined up. I'm skeptical that they can pull it off, but bigger leads have been overcome in less time, so I'm not going to say that it's NOT going to happen, just as I'm not going to say it will. Let's win the Phillies series and see what comes about after that.
Post a Comment