Nationals Baseball: A couple notes on trades

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

A couple notes on trades

So the Nats need help. They need a reliable 5th starter (especially with Max being hurt - even if he comes back it's something that could linger). They need bullpen help. They probably could use a bat too but there isn't an easy way to plug in a fix at say... catcher, so we'll ignore that for now.

We've seen (and some have predicted) what will be the general way this works. The Nats ask for a good reliever. The other team looks at the Nats farm system and says "The only good prospect you have is Carter Kieboom.  We would like Carter Kieboom" The Nats say "Carter Kieboom is too good for that guy" and the dance begins. Both teams are right. 

Kieboom lines up with a solid reliable relief pitcher with years of control. Think Sam Dyson but 2016 Sam Dyson. Closer by default, good results but underlying stats a bit worse, lots of control. He might also line-up with a very good closer with a few years of that level of talent but FA looming (think 2016 Mark Melancon) in a buyers market but this isn't a buyers market and there isn't a very good closer out there.

Shane Greens/Sam Dyson line up with a middle of the road prospect. Someone older in the 40-60 range. The type most likely to be an average contributor for a decent number of years. Garcia, arguably the Nats #2 prospect, doesn't really fit the bill. He falls just out of this range right now, and a recent slump in AA (plus no homers and like a dozen walks) doesn't help.  But he's super young so you may say "most likely to have minimal impact in majors" but you concede the ceiling is higher than it would be if he were 22. To do a trade for Garica require a little more in the package but the important thing is it would require leaps in faith by Detroit - that Garcia will move up a step, and by the Nats - that Garcia won't move up more than that.

The rest of the Nats prospects are "worse". Crowe, who at 24 is likely to slide into the Voth/Fedde/Ross roll over the next few seasons. Denaburg and Rutledge who are nearly pure unknowns. Cate who might be the most intriguing of the bunch but doesn't set the world on fire.

So what do the Nats do? Do they "give up" on Garcia if they find a willing trade partner? Again the gamble would be that he doesn't get much better, which is a big one to make on a player in AA who just turned 18. Do they try to load up a package that is two of those pitchers, plus say one of their mid-tier hitting prospects - like draftee Drew Mendoza (plus maybe an low A throw in), effectively gutting an already weak farm? There's not a good answer here.

That's why I see the Nats doing something less interesting. I mentioned a Fedde for Buck Farmer deal. A middling guy having a good year with some years of control left. That's the target they are probably going to end up getting.


Another note I DID mention trading Robles, but it's a thought exercise. The idea was if you could get back a very good hitter with 2-3 year of control and a playable CF (because in this OF Robles in CF is necessary) that you could jolt the Nats offense and focus on winning during the Rendon/Max years you know you have. But the package has to line up and it doesn't.  I want a Whit Merrifield but to make it work am I trading Eaton in the package and getting back... Billy Hamilton? No thank you. Domingo Santana might be a good fit but do I want Mallex Smith? Nope. Kiermaier, who's basically classic MAT now, is an interesting fit in CF but do I want to do that gambling on Tommy Phan or Asivail Garcia to spark the offense? Can't say that I do.

So basically it's a non-starter. The trade is getting offense in the next couple years in exchange for the later production of Robles who will likely get better but may never be the All-Star type. You can do that. But the Nats also need to fill in that defensive hole and I can't figure a way to do it that I say with certainty "Yes, the Nats are better for 2019 now that they did this". Now if I thought the Red Sox were willing to deal Betts and Bradley Jr... 

Anyway just because it's interesting, or even makes sense in a planning way, doesn't mean deal talk should be taken seriously because it needs to work out in reality as well and that means trade partners lining up who have exactly what you need to make it work and the want to trade for what you want to give up. 

41 comments:

ssln said...

This is the second rational post in two weeks. Apparently, the pills to dehumanize are wearing off. I would suggest switching from the blue pill to the red pill.
On a slightly different matter, it is nice to see you picked up on the thesis that was the foundation of my recent posts. There is no trade partner that matches up with the Nats in this buyer's market unless you do a massive overpay.
Maybe the GM' on the board will listen now that you said it.

JWLumley said...

Probably not going to happen, but the best trade might be taking on Wilson Ramos' salary and getting a decent reliever from the Mets. Ramos hasn't been great, but he's much better than Gomes. Plus, by taking on salary, wouldn't have to give much up. However, that would put them above the luxury tax threshold. Another idea is trading Dozier. If you can find a team that assumes he's a slow starter. You plug Howie in there at 2B, yes they'd lose some defense and power, but they'd also gain some payroll flexibility. Regardless, to get anything of value they're going to have to be creative. I'm really surprised that Drew Smyly wound up with the Phillies, would've seemed like a perfect buy low guy for the 5th starter spot and if he works, maybe move Fedde back to the bullpen or Voth. Voth's increased velocity with extra rest would seem to suggest that he could be better out of the pen.

JWLumley said...

SSLN:
"You dumb-dumbs are all playing amateur GM. Shut up and listen to me play amateur GM because I'm better at it."

ssln said...

JWL

You shouldn't say such things about Harper.

Mr. T said...

nar·cis·sism
/ˈnärsəˌsizəm/
noun

excessive interest in or admiration of oneself and one's comments on a baseball blog

synonyms: vanity, self-love, self-admiration, self-adulation, self-absorption, self-obsession, conceit, self-conceit, self-centeredness, self-regard, egotism, egoism, egocentricity, egomania

PSYCHOLOGY
selfishness, involving a sense of entitlement, a tendency to denigrate other blog commenters while demanding that others express admiration for one's own blog comments

Froggy said...

@JW, I think your point about the luxury tax is the red line. Re Ramos, the upside is he is a crowd favorite, he has better offense than Gomes, and likely calls a better game. But is his framing and defense against SB better or worse?

But rather than a reliever, do you see a 5th starter the Mets would part with instead?

coolsny said...

@ JW

how much salary could the nats realistically take on of wilson's contract? team is not going to go over the luxury tax limit, and his salary could preclude them from getting that arm.

also howie might not perform as well playing every day, so dont think you can get rid of dozier. give kieboom his second chance??

JWLumley said...

@coolsny Those are just ideas. I'm not really committed to any of them. Ramos would work because Gomes defense has really slipped. He's literally worse than Wieters at this point.

As for Howie, I agree he's probably not as good, but if they can't go over the luxury limit, that's the kind of thing it's going to take and Howie + improved bullpen may be better than just keeping Dozier. It's hard to say without knowing what they could get for him or how other clubs view him.

@Froggy Yeah, if the Nats could eat Ramos' salary and say get an injury risk Wheeler for minimum cost, that might be the best deal they can make. Then keep picking up waiver wire relievers until you build a bullpen.

Anonymous said...

@ssln - this is exactly what every armchair GM has been saying, though Harper of course is more eloquent. So you've been calling everyone on here dumb while also saying the exact same thing apparently? weird man. Almost as weird as your self comment.

@JWLumley - I don't think we chase a catcher, even Ramos. I could see going for an extra bat if Zimm is particularly injured and eating a little bit of salary (There are some high performing vets out there that will likely be dumped for cheap), could be an interesting flip for MAT and eating a bit of their salary. Surprised I haven't seen Reynold's follow his now ex team to join his former ex-team too.

@Board - is it weird there's still a part of me that wants to reload a bit? I know we won't, but if the sellers market stays small I feel like we could get something of actual value for fools gold.

coolsny said...

lol do we think the phillies would part ways with Jay Bruce now

Harper said...

For reference since getting the impression good times were coming... say 2010 the Nats have made 0 trades with the Marlins and 1 trade a piece with Mets and Braves. Interdivision trades are difficult because of the "play the guy 19 times" worry. They have traded with the Phillies 4 times - all part of a rebuild. So maybe the Mets would be more conducive to a deal but it would have to be an impending FA they are pretty sure will test the market (or hasn't been on the Mets long) - also Ramos hasn't been that good.

Catcher wise - Nats are stuck for the most part. Suzuki is here next year. Gomes is untradable so do you cut him? Or trade Suzuki and keep Gomes as a pure back-up? I'm also not sure who is so much better than Suzuki to grab on a non-contender. Kelly for ARI they'd want to keep. Navarez on SEA hasn't shown he can play 120+ (which you need if Gomes is your back-up only). McCann on CHW is riding maybe a fluke year.

I think the Mets would give the Nats Vargas and ask for little if that appeals to you at all. Slightly better than the 5th starter brigade but not Nats style (like more control)

ssln said...

Mr T.

Look, if you feel I suffer from narcissism, then you don't feed it by doing a post on it. Just a hint.

Anon

Really, everyone figured out what Harper was going to say today? Would you like me to go back and post all the trade talk and deals you have proposed in the last two weeks. My guess is that you don't want me to do that. Here is a question you can answer. If everyone had figured it out before today, why did JWL post a possible trade today...and then two paragraphs later tell us it wouldn't work.
You are always a fun read. Did you ever consider that Harper really is my brother/

Anonymous said...

@ssln. Yes, please do go back, I assume you did and couldn't find anything so you made another snarky post :). Of course I had no idea what his daily post is going to be, I guess you would if he's you're brother? That's awesome if he is, and good job driving engagement for his blog ;)

Nowhere in any of my posts did I propose moving Kieboom or trading for a top of the market reliever, which you seem to think everyone on here was calling for when they weren't. I've consistently advocated for BP help - to be specific I mean 4 ERA / FIP middle relief types that would be cheap if the market was deep. Players you'll find I've proposed shopping - Eaton, MAT, Kendricks (as part of a 3 team deal and bring up Kieboom), Fedde, Kurt and a few other 5-10 type lower org prospects. I also referenced Harper's twitter musings on Robles. None of those likely have any effect on long-term org depth, sans Robles who I don't want to move, just thought it was interesting.

In the vacuum as a random, non-brother frequent commenter, I read your first post today as having a huge ego that he "picked up on your thesis." There's no partner two weeks ago because there were only 5 sellers then, so yea, you're "right" in the same way the armchair GMs are right if there are 17 sellers next week (entirely possible). My understanding is your hypothesis hinges on almost all of the middling teams still being in the WC race. E.g., You've been arguing the Nats shouldn't trade because any reliever will be mortgaging the future. The gist of this post and what everyone else is saying is - sell bargain barrel with control for (?) middle inning eater. Assuming a few more teams drop to sellers, that's entirely feasible. If it doesn't happen, so be it. We had this problem before the season started, and long before that, so not like it's new.

The Ghost of Ole Cole Henry (JDBrew) said...

@ssln
Honestly dude, I’m just kinda done hearing you try to tell everyone how smart you are. I could be wrong but it feels like every post you are just begging people to read your post from before so you can show how you were right about something. I’m just done reading your comments. Think I’ll just skip any post with your name on it entirely. It’s boring.

Josh said...

Interesting article on 538... Based on their analysis, the Nats could improve overall championship odds (combining this year and future years) by selling OR buying right now.

https://fivethirtyeight dot com/features/the-teams-that-should-be-buying-and-selling-at-this-years-baseball-trade-deadline/

Anonymous said...

Ssln really does kill the vibe when he posts, but a question for you all: do you ever get in an argument with the mentally ill homeless man shouting gibberish at the sky? My guess is no.

And if ssln wanted to “go back and look” at prior comments, how would he know which Anonymous is which? Or are they all the same? Mwhahah...

But really, lighten up everyone.

Sammy Kent said...

My revision of the Ernie Banks mantra: Let's win two.

JWLumley said...

The Nats should trade ssln for Marlins guy. Yes, both are insufferable.

Anonymous said...

@other anon - touché.

Anyone else think Gomes looked like a major league hitter last night? Would absolutely love to see that continue the next few games and he turns more into the 260+ guy he has been a few years of his career for the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, Robles is not going the direction on offense I had hoped he'd continue on going into the ASB. Too bad, those two coming around would obviously cement this lineup.

JWLumley said...

@Anon - Robles is hitting like .350 over the last 15 games. Yes he's toolsy, but he got a hit last night.

Anonymous said...

@JWLumley - he's 270 last 15, last 7 down to 240 (pre ASB was money).

JWLumley said...

Yay, Matt Grace is coming in. This will not go well.

@anon, maybe I was wrong, remember seeing a stat on MASN that he was hitting well.

Mr. T said...

1-2-3 inning for Grace! Weird.

coolsny said...

@ JW and Anon

Robles hitting .275 over past 14 days but you know who is really cooling off? Soto, with a .230 clip (still walking though)

Mr. T said...

This Jaegler-replacement guy is killing me. "Long run for Soto down the line, and it's CAUGHT! A nice, reaching grab--by the ballgirl."

Treaples69 said...

Dave is far superior to Bob and its not even close

Anonymous said...

@JW and Coolsny

I'm more worried about Robles than Soto tbh. Soto OBP is still +300 and has gotten a few bumps by not widening his strike zone for a few umps who favor the wide calls. Robles is looking lost against some weaker pitching. Both are in the not carrying their weight category of late tho.

coolsny said...

@Anon

yeah. it's really troubling to see the nats offense when Rendon (despite his homer today) and Soto are cooling rather than heating.

firm in my belief the nats should enjoy this salvaged year, but not expect to make WS and thus not make a big move at the trade deadline.

Anonymous said...

@coolsny - I agree re: big moves. I actually really want the nats to help bid up the price on the Phillies and Braves to start to dry out their systems, so regardless I want signaling on those moves. I still want middle relief help if for an older ~4 ERA arm.

1 down, let's get another.

DK said...

Anonymous 12:56

Would MAT in CF ease your worries?

BxJaycobb said...

Don’t even bother about the Braves systems drying out. They have so many players coming it makes me sick. But what’s even more egregious when you compare to the Nats is they basically locked up acuna and Albies prime for the price of an average starter. Albies for the prize of a bullpen arm. It’s insane. I seriously would put real thought into who represents a player when i draft a stud, because these non boras players just extend out every time. And we never get a discounted early extensions.
1.EXAMPLE. There is no reason in hell not to extend Rendon, but perhaps even more obviously ignorant you feel like doing a mini rebuild/retooling, Robles, Turner, and Soto. On Robles and Turner i would argue i would “be buying low” because i believe they will both go to at least one all star game.

BxJaycobb said...

@Anon. Robles is a rookie and is going to look lost sometimes. He missed most of last year and is still headed for a 3 WAR year. He’s doing fine. I predict he cuts his Ks in the offseason and makes a jump next year. But he’s already great on defense and is gonna have a 20-20 rookie year.

BxJaycobb said...

@coolsny Soto has looked absolutely horrible the last few days for some reason. Tons of Ks, waving at off speed....looking like he was early in the year. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to give him a mental day off if he doesn’t pull out of it.

BxJaycobb said...

@Josh. Actually the “Doyle Number” for the Nats is .92, meaning it’s lower than 1, and they should therefore be more inclined to sell than buy. (Essentially because they have such a low chance of winning the World Series despite a 60% chance of playoffs, and because their farm system is so bad....interestingly it says the Phillies should DEFINITELY sell. They’re at .48.

Anonymous said...

@DW - MAT is a 4th OF, Robles could and should approve

@BX, just saying he looks lost at the plate. The last few games he gives off Espinosa vibes with the big hack / # of Ks, was much better going into the ASB. I don't feel like we're watching the same games with Soto - he's zone recognition is fantastic, got robbed by a few umps in a row, and is now playing with defensive swings on borderline pitches. I've been thinking through who I'd want to sell if we could. I'd sell Rodney for a back end 100 farm piece. Unfortunately, it looks like the sellers market is starting to fill in - I imagine the Rockies will be cashing in with their pen.



coolsny said...

@BxJaycobb

re: Boras-represented players

i get where the heart of the argument is at from Boras' camp, that the owners are billionaire businessmen and the players make huge sacrifices in their lives and should be paid more, but these demands are really detrimental to team building when there is a cap, even if it is a soft cap.

these contracts become prohibitive to team building sometimes, and you someone has to ask these players, do you really want to bankrupt this team and play for an empty stadium in the last 3-4 years of your gargantuan contract?

(at least i hope that's what happens with the phillies lol)

stephen a. smith with all his warts just did a great story on how the new pay structure that was negotiated by the players union in the NBA is a huge sham - the players as a whole still have basically the same share of the revenues, but the stars are now able to make exorbitantly more money and the everyday players and role players got screwed.

i hope the MLB doesn't make the same mistake.

Josh said...

That's what I thought but they say later in the piece the Nats could benefit from either one as long as they commit to one or the other. I admit I haven't taken the time to fully understand the Doyle number. Just found it interesting and relevant to the topics we've been discussing.

DezoPenguin said...

@ Josh: Doyle number is pretty much what Bx says, though it's a flawed analysis specifically because it's rooted in the assumption that *only* winning a World Series is what matters to a front office, ignoring the fact that making the playoffs might be a goal in and of itself (though one could simply recalculate the numbers based on that goal). A team with a Doyle number of 1.00 is perfectly balanced between "sell" and "buy." As you note, however, the article includes the Nats' 0.92 in with the group around 1.00, so I assume that statistically that .08 is relatively minor.

What I actually found the most interesting about that article is the assertion that the c. 1.0 group should do SOMETHING, either go all-in or all-out. Which I suppose makes sense--if you're perfectly balanced between "win now" and "win later" being good ideas, you have the freedom to choose but "sit around and do nothing" gets you nowhere.

Meanwhile, the Braves are demonstrating just why it was so important for the Nats to take care of business against that stretch of weaker teams, as they've run into the buzzsaw that is the Kansas City Royals and hey, the Nats are only four games back all of a sudden.

PotomacFan said...

How about that bullpen! (Large hint of sarcasm.) Hard to figure who is going to be available to pitch today. Doo and Rodney are not available. Suero and Rainey pitched in only one game yesterday, and didn't throw too many pitches. Would hate to see Max pitch a good game and have the depleted bullpen blow it.

And, because of the rain out, Ross is going to have to pitch on Saturday against the Dodgers. Kershaw is scheduled to pitch for the Dodgers. Enough said.

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