Nationals Baseball: Why Gomes? Why no Kendrick?

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Why Gomes? Why no Kendrick?

Two things have become clear over the course of this season.  Yan Gomes can't hit anymore.  Howie Kendrick wasn't done in by his injury and can still hit.  Yet four games into the 2nd half and the Nats line-up have been a lot like they were leading into the All-Star Break.  We've seen Gomes twice and Suzuki twice as they have pretty much split time and Kendrick hasn't managed to start a game yet (though I'd suspect we'll see him tonight). While it could be written off as "resting the guys for later" I think these are two unique situations.

The Gomes situation is hard to read because catching is hard to read. It's a unique position that's difficult to evaluate defensively and a lot of the reason some guys play is because starting pitchers like them. This has been my conceit with Gomes. If he's putting up a 53 OPS+ and playing about 50% of the time, the starters must like him. If you are curious I think I went over it in a comment or tweet but the catching match-ups work like this right now

Sanchez goes with Suzuki
Corbin goes with Gomes
Max used to go with Gomes, but now goes with Suzuki
Stras and the 5th starter mix it up with a little more reliance on Gomes than Suzuki.

I mean there's rest for Suzuki, but every third game should be sufficient. Or even 60%. Other than the pitcher preference I'm not sure what would spur on this split we're seeing. And assuming it's that - I think it's fair to say "OK we can cover for this one position that doesn't hit a few games a week". Starter comfort is nothing to be messed with. This isn't ideal but the ideal situation would be "Gomes hits a lot better" or "Pitchers love Suzuki". Neither of those are reality so the Nats are working with what they got. I think it's fine for now, as long as we see more Kurt during a run coming up. He did play back to back games twice in the ARI PHI ATL stretch in June (Gomes had them after that). If that happens again now during ATL COL LA ATL then great. I think they got something right here.


The Kendrick situation is unfortunate.  He can't really play OF anymore. If you were to play him - you'd want him in left, but left is where Soto plays and frankly Soto, as we've discussed, is no good. You don't want to shift him over to right every few games when you are hoping something catches on with him in left. I suppose Kendrick plays left when Soto sits, but how often do you really want Soto sitting? In fact Kendrick hasn't played OF all year. So don't expect this.

So if the OF is out - that's fine Kendrick can play 1B and muddle through 2B and 3B. With 3B well - that's like taking Soto out. You might rest Rendon a game every month, maybe. He hasn't had a day off yet since returning and I don't see any reason to make him take one. So consider 3B pretty much out except for a couple of random starts between here and season's end. Like two.

Once Rendon was back Kendrick appeared in games by playing against LHP at first and coming in occasionally at 2B.  He'd probably only play say every other game like that but toss in a few DH stints and it felt like just enough. But then Zimm came back and he needed the time against LHP at first. If you want Zimm back into the swing of things you simply can't give him more than a random day off for a while and in fact he's played against every LHP and some RHP so far, basically splitting time with Adams.  All that's left right now for Kendrick is 2B. The Nats like what they have with Dozier. He holds down 2B well especially since neither Zimm or Adams are particularly good fielders at 1B. He's also been hitting just well enough to keep playing. So Kendrick is effectively squeezed out.

I suspect that once we see Zimm get comfortable - maybe in a week or two - we'll see a more set rotation for Kendrick. Something like over the course of 10 games he'll play 1B once and 2B twice. But beyond that he's an extra piece. If you want to look at it from a positive angle, that's a good problem to have. "Oh where do we play this good hitter who can't field" It's a problem good teams SHOULD have.

Now if the offense begins to struggle against the upcoming decent team stretch, will I be annoyed if Kendrick still isn't playing? Yes. But the Nats are winning and as long as they keep doing that it gives them the cover to do what they want. Which includes sitting the better hitting Kendrick so the better fielding Dozier can play and Zimm can get his recovery at bats.

29 comments:

Jimmy said...

I mean Gomes has had years like this with the bat. If anything it was last year that was the outlier. I personally feel Martinez has a good feel for not riding Zuk and Howie into the ground.

dustin said...

Dozier's wRC+ by month:

Mar/Apr - 68
May - 77
Jun - 124
Jul - 185

Which is pretty consistent w/ his career numbers. Always been a stronger 2nd half guy. So yeah, definitely hard to argue with sitting him too much. Even though it leaves Kendrick on the bench more than you'd like.

NavyYardSteve said...

A couple of points:
1. I read somewhere that if Suzuki is catching Max, then he wants the day off before Max's starts so he can prepare both physically and mentally to be on the same page as Max. That seems to make sense to me.

2. Re: Kendrick - I think it comes down to whether you'd rather see Kendrick or Adams in the lineup. Of the games that Zim doesn't start, what percentage do you want Kendrick/Adams playing 1B? And as a secondary (tertiary?) question, who are you more comfortable slotting into a big PH at-bat late in the game?

Anonymous said...

Personally, I'd prefer to have Adams/Kendrick platooning at 1B. Zimm should be the bench piece.

JWLumley said...

With Zim, the Nats need to see if he can get hot. Adams hasn't hit much better (he has an OBP well below .300) so it's not like he's screaming for playing time. However, if Zim keeps hitting like this into August, I think the Nats need to encourage him to retire or DFA him. He's basically worthless because he's proven he can't come off the bench. All that to say that I understand why Kendrick isn't playing and it makes sense.

Gomes on the other hand, makes zero sense. The 5th starters shouldn't be dictating who catches their games. So Suzuki would catch Scherzer and Sanchez, plus the 5th starter and that's 60% of the time by itself. Mix and match Gomes and Suzuki with Strasburg and boom you're where you need to be. Yan Gomes is basically Matt Wieters.

Kevin Rusch said...

Come on guys, you know the answer. Howie catching.


But seriously folks, it looks like Raudy Read's tearing it up in AAA; is he worth another look?

Given Howie's OBP, I think I like him better as the first guy off the bench. Plus with his versatility, you can double-switch him for a few innings and he won't embarrass himself.

BxJaycobb said...

I mean. I don’t think this is a complex problem if the GM/Davey is thinking in an unbiased way. Play Kendrick at 1B when he can. Zim and Adams are terrible fielders, so it’s not about defense. Does anybody here believe Zim or Adams are as good hitters as Kendrick? Not over their career. Zims at the tail end of his career. I mean now. Kendrick is much better than both. With the juiced ball his high contact (which is a welcome change of pace in the lineup) has become contact+ power. Play Kendrick at first. I don’t want to hear “Davey is really good at resting Kendrick and suzuki.” This isn’t about rest for Kendrick. He’s not playing at all basically. I’m fairly certain his production would not drop off if he merely started half the games instead of almost zero. Suzuki should be starting 4 out of 5 games. If he can’t do that, which is possible, he needs to be starting 3 out of every 5. You’re talking about an automatic out vs a league average hitter. It’s insane.

BxJaycobb said...

I also don’t really get why you wouldn’t occasionally play Kendrick in RF. So he’s a bad fielder there. Okay. That’s a negative. Here are the pluses. 1.Eaton is also a bad fielder—no he’s likely not as bad as Kendrick but he’s not good. 2. Eaton is playing like an exhausted person and should have plenty of days off. He’s more in need of it than anybody and playing him everyday is nuts. He’s having an all time bad offensive year. Give him a day off in RF once a week and play Kendrick there. It probably would help both. The dip in defense that day in RF would be worth it I think and then some.

BxJaycobb said...

@JMLumley. Gomes has been worse than Matt Weiters actually.

DezoPenguin said...

Well, over the last three years, by wRC+:

Kendrick: 121, 112, 142
Zimmerman: 137, 118, 74

So actually, while Kendrick is consistently good, Zim actually has been the better hitter when uninjured in the last two previous years. It's not actually stupid to see if he can again be so, now that he's allegedly back from his plantar fascitis. If Zim heats up, then we have a really good 1B-2B-3B backup on the bench, as was the original plan at the start of the season. If Dozier's good June-July fades back to obscurity, or if Zim is well and truly cooked, or if Adams remains roughly equal to Adam Eaton in batting, then Kendrick can step in to replace him.

The real problem is, it's going to take a couple of weeks to figure out if Zim is or is not going to come back functionally. We can be going "he got two hits off a righty; he's back!" or "he went 0-5 against Baltimore pitching last night; he's trash!" And those couple of weeks are going to be against high level competition where the team really has no safety valve. The best possible version of the Nats has a good Zim and Dozier at their positions, with Adams and Kendrick coming off the bench as needed, but we don't necessarily have that version of the Nats and our fear as fans is that we're going to lose winnable games finding out the hard way that Kendrick's got to be a starter.

Re: Suzuki; I think that Gomes probably ought to catch the fifth starter because he's the better receiver and framer and frankly our fifth starters need all the help they could get. It'd be nice if Suzuki could catch Strasburg, though, giving him his three out of five games. It's be nicer if Gomes could start hitting again; if he's going to hit like this Rizzo would have been better off trading for Sandy Leon and paying less.

Treaples69 said...

This suprised me and may shock other people. But Victor Robles is the 3rd best outfielder in baseball by statcast outs above average stat. Soto is 26th above people like springer and starling marte. The nats have best outfield defense in baseball by this measure which is very much propped up by robles being a stud defensively

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/outs_above_average

Jon Quimby said...

Kendrick and Adams give Martinez more options coming off the bench than Zimm. Start Adamas and you're stuck with 2 RH bats. Start Kendrick and you're stuck with 2 first basement. I can't wait to have Zimm gone, but for now I think they're using him correctly.

For Suzuki, I want him as my catcher in the playoffs. If having him 50% now means he's available 90% in playoffs then we're good. The Nats are very likely to win the wildcard and very unlikely to catch the Braves. No amount of Suzuki/Gomes will change that. Also, once rosters expand, I think we'll see a lot more of Suzuki as a pinch hitter.

billyhacker said...

@Quimby with the power comment! As with Suzuki, having Kendrick in good shape for the end of the year will be valuable. Seems unlikely there isn't an injury to Zim, Adams, Dozier over the next 60 games.

Sammy Kent said...

Let's win tonight.

ssln said...

One of the great things about this blog is that Harper keeps all the posts in a library that allows us to research what everyone said on various topics. So let's revisit Nov. 1, 2018 and a discussion on the signing of Trevor Rosenthal. You know just to see what everyone thought at the time.
Let's begin with Harper's observation. "The Nats have a pretty good bead that Rosenthal is healty and decent. & million is a lot to spend on a pitcher that is just a lottery ticket."
Then there is this one from Dezo Penguin.
...yeah, they have to have substancial confidence that Rosenthal is right medically right if they are throwing that much money at him. Move quickly and get the guy they want...
Then one from Suburban Steve:
"If it is one thing I trust Rizzo with the most I think he sees a healthy, rebounding Rosenthal and made his move early. I like it.
There were fourteen comments to the post and no one expressed any regrets or negativity.
Just some facts, as you play GM on this blog.
Draw your own conclusions.

ssln said...

Watch those SF Giants, 13-2 in the last fifteen games and making a run at WC2. Why is it important? Everyone assumed that a starting pitcher whose name starts with a B would be available, not to mention three good relievers. If the Giants aren't seller at the TD then the price for RP is going to skyrocket. Supply and demand.
Just like FCF, you have to understand economics. Harper is still trying to balance his checkbook. But for the rest of you the question becomes are you willing to trade Kieboom to get a quality reliever?
Everyone here wants to be a GM and do a deal. Maybe you should focus on the reality of the market because all the contenders are after RP. Supply and demand, folks. Time to face reality. No abstractions if you want a trade. What are you willing to give up to get what you want?

Anonymous said...

None of us understand economics. Supply and... what? See? It’s too heavy a concept to grasp. Thanks for immediately assuming you’re the smartest person on this blog.

I’m for standing pat at the deadline. Nothing I’m willing to part ways with, especially for a player who might pitch an inning every other day.

Anonymous said...

ssln.... you posted, posted again and then posted again as anonymous. That's weird man (lady?).

Anyways, re above posts - cool?

To everyone else, Fedde must have been on a pitch count, right? Letting him stay in at 66 pitches had to be better than going to our pen (not to mention, thanks MASN for the jinx right before that 3 run inning).


Robot said...

Boo, Suero!

SuburbanSteve said...

@ssln - Propbably the first and last time I reply to you, but you are the least fun person ever. I'm glad I don't know you personally. FWIW, I did like the Rosenthal signing, and while I have no inside knowledge, nor am I a stats guy (which is why I like reading this blog), I still trust Rizzo, and while the signing of Rosenthal was a bust, I accept (as a couch potato GM) that those things happen. Before you call people check the other comments - and you'll see, I've never called for Rizzo's firing, I like and trust him and think he is a top 5 GM, and I'll take one for the team for the Rosenthal flop.

Also FWIW - I think Rizzo saw his velocity was great and thought they could manage any wildness...obviously not.

Mr. T said...

ssln, as a long time admirer of your work, let me say that your time is too valuable to be spent trawling the archives for incorrect statements by your enemies.

There is a simple solution: let me take on this task for you, and together we shall rule the comments section of Harper's blog, forever!!! pm me @dbags4eva

coolsny said...

@ssln/ben shapiro

i feel like you have no friends outside of your pet snakes

Anonymous said...

I actually think that sslin is a glaring example of why this blog is so great.

His behavior, while annoying, is incredibly mild compared to what trolls do elsewhere.

I wouldn't even really call him a troll. He tries to stay on the subject. Doesn't usually resort to personal attacks (though that Harper's brother thing was weird and maybe personal?) He's just kind of a dick and not a particularly interesting thinker/writer. Maybe he's been trying to be funny? Some people are really bad at writing humor. I don't know, but whatever he's trying to do, it's not that bad if you consider the range of possibilities.

And yet, here his comments are immediately recognized as out of place, subject to some minor ridicule and then generally ignored. Which is pretty much the perfect response.

Really, this blog is one of the best places on the internet. Thank you, Harper. There are a lot of places to read interesting articles, and I obviously appreciate your content. But you managed to attract a set of commenters that are a pleasure to read as well, and that's really impressive.

JWLumley said...

@coolsny don't bring something divisive like politics in to play when everyone already agrees that ssln is terrible. Besides, while gifted in other areas, Shapior is an avowed White Sox fan who knows even less about baseball than ssln.

Also, this bullpen is so bad, I just don't know how the Nats can do it in the postseason. They really need 2 maybe 3 more guys. Maybe Box down in Harrisburg turns into another great reclamation project and Venters continues where he left off, then they only need 1, but wow. The illustrious Michael Morse was right, when Suero comes in, you Wander what you're gonna get. (Also, Morse is terrible in the booth, I mean, just bad.)

As for the bullpen implosion, I told my wife when Bob started talking about how good the bullpen has been entering the 7th, "Oh great, Bob "Jinx" Carpenter is at it again." Clairvoyant? Nah, this bullpen's just bad.

DezoPenguin said...

Good process can sometimes lead to bad results. We call this "bad luck." Signing Rosenthal was good process. Trading for Barraclough...maybe not so much. The real issue is that the entire pen was full of gambles and everybody but Doolittle came up snake eyes. And the patches and duct tape are showing.

I wonder if Davey was deliberately trying to save Doolittle and Rodney for the Braves once the wheels came off Suero. That's the only reason I can think of for him running Guerra back out there for the 8th, given that Guerra had already pitched two innings the night before. (I mean, I suspect that with a 1-run lead the original plan was to go Suero-Rodney-Doolittle for 7-8-9, using the team's three best relievers to hold a one-run lead, but once the wheels came off...) It felt bad, given that Fedde actually gave us six good innings. (Good performances from Voth and Fedde both were nice, even if it was against the Os.)

Hoping for a split against the Braves. Really hoping that Scherzer pitches Sunday. Going 3-1 would be great, even 1-3 not a disaster. Please, please don't get swept!

Anonymous said...

@JW - I love Morse the player, maybe someday he can be FP....

I know it's arm chair GMing, but man... even Bob and FP thought pulling Fedde was a bad idea even before that game exploded.

Chicago Nats Fan said...

I wasn't watching and was just listening intermittently, so maybe Fedde was getting hit hard and was just getting lucky to scramble hits and get double plays. I also get that third time through the heart of the order, stats start to jump. But given his pitch count and the wildcard that is our bullpen, seemed weird to pull him at that time. I live in Chicago, and I'll never forget the WS game 7 in 2016 when the announcers were second guessing Maddon's decision to pull Hendricks. The general point was never make an early pitching move that the opponent will celebrate. Fedde is no Hendricks, but if a guy is getting outs and confusing the hitters, then why pull him when he's at less than 70 pitches.

I get this is all armchair managing, and we'd be killing DM if he left Fedde in and he got lit up and we had 3 of our top relievers rested and ready. All this frustration goes away if we take 3 of 4 in Atlanta too. But we should remember this game if we're one game out in September.

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