I painted a pretty bleak picture Monday and nothing has changed but, BUT I'm hear to tell you if I'm wrong why things could be better just next year.
First off is the obvious - if the Nats choose rebuilding for 2023 rather than figuring out if they will rebuild for 2023 then they'll be better. Maybe not playoff better but probably around .500 and the idea would be they'd be looking to be playoff ready in 2023. A SS and a few RP? Maybe Robbie Ray instead? Or a low-end SP and a solid OF? The Nats payroll would be around $140 million in my scenario, with around $155 million toward the cap of around $210. There is money available for them to do this.
Second is - there is so much money available that they can probably spend their way to success without going over the luxury tax... if Strasburg is healthy and good. If that's the case a big time SP, a decent rotation filler, a big time SS, and a decent OF gets you right around the luxury tax area and also around 90 wins. Is that enough? The Braves were legit good and will get back Acuna, but aren't going to keep everyone that was big toward their late season and playoff runs and will spend most of their money presumably on just keeping Freddie and seeing what happens. The Phillies remain a bat and an arm away. They seemed primed to bring in a bat at SS but Phillies being Phillies I imagine they let the arm slide and continue to be not good enough. Who knows with the Mets and the Marlins could be players but probably not next year - I haven't heard any rumblings (I also think they might be eyeing Trea next year). So yeah - it's likely enough or very close.
Third - if Strasburg isn't healthy and good (honestly the most likely scenario) they could just go over the cap. They won't but they could. That's the beauty of baseball - if you want to win games and you aren't currently terrible, you can spend the money and make it happen. You can't guarantee a title but you can pretty much guarantee a playoff spot if you are willing to go all in.
As long as the off-season isn't over (and it's barely begun) there's still hope for those looking for more. And hell...
Fourth... well I suppose they could not try and get incredibly lucky. Soto has a SOTO year and Bell hits like he has. Ruiz is a ROY winner type season, while Garcia looks like a good bat and Kieboom finally blossoms, at least to average. Thomas is a steal and Robles finds his way back to average too. Escobar will likely still be a hole but with a solid OF pick-up you have a 7 deep line-up. Strasburg is an ace again. Corbin is average for him which is good enough. Gray shows as a real 3/4. Ross is a real 3/4 and finally stays healthy. Rogers, Fedde, et al bounce around for a little bit until Cavalli burns up AAA and comes up and is good. The bullpen FA signings work out and they get those random good years that other teams pens seem to have. You get all that - that's a playoff team too.
So like any good fan you can probably live out some fantasy of competitiveness even if your team shouldn't be good through Memorial Day. That's the beauty of fandom in a sport where the best team wins 60% of their games and the worst team wins 40%. Seasons are rarely over that quickly and you can enjoy a couple months every year.
Oh I'll add if you want to play around with a potential Nats roster, James O'Hara set out his at this point annual web page to do that over here : https://jamesohara08.github.io/NatsGMProject/
Obviously imperfect and guessing at some costs but gives you a general idea of the flexibility the Nats have (more than you might think) and the talent available (pretty sparse beyond those SSs)
10 comments:
That's a fun app; thanks for the link, Harper! (Even though it won't let you start Escobar at SS or Chris Taylor at SS or CF; ah, well...)
It does illustrate your point, though--with throwing reasonable amounts of money at the problem and a little luck, the Nats could be set up for a rebuild. It all depends on what they're willing to do (and what the market is on the players they want).
It's too bad that the prospect cabinet is so bare. Rizzo and Beane have a good trading relationship and Oakland is apparently trying to get rid of expensive players. Chapman and Manaea would fit nicely onto the Nats, but there's no reasonable way that they'd be able to make the best offer.
Satire is most effective when it borders on the reasonable. You are the Jonathan Swift of Nationals baseball. Well done, Harper.
P.S. I believe O'Hara neglected the $15 million in deferred salary owed Max next season.
So knock that off the presumed available payroll in 2022.
Is this the column where we can start with crazy dreams? Here's mine--Rizzo swoops in with a $190-$200 million/6 year offer for Freddie Freeman. If he says no, you have forced Atlanta to spend a lot more than they intended. If he says yes, you have possibly overpaid and you may have to take a hit in the later years....BUT you have made the Nats instantly credible, you have added a big bat that can protect Soto, you have sent Soto an unmistakeable message that the franchise is commmitted to fielding a winning team. And it would surely demoralize the Braves.
Like the Werth signing a decade ago...this would be a strategic overpay, but you hope for sufficient actual value plus messaging value that it is a winning move.
@SM I thought Max's salary counted towards the luxury tax in the years of the contract, whether deferred or not?
My understanding is the same--deferred payments are irrelevant to luxery tax. What counts for the tax
is the AAV of the entire contract, regardles of when money actually changes hands.
I really don't see how the Nats can plan to keep Soto if they don't go after one of the SS options. If you don't, you're assuming House is the future, and that's a huge gamble (see Keiboom, Carter). Plus, going after a SS immediately puts you into the "mediocre" camp instead of the "garbage" camp they currently sit in
I think SM's point is that the Lerners may be constrained by both the luxury tax and an actual cashflow budget.
In that reading, even though Max's deferred payments doesn't count towards the tax calcs, Rizzo's options may be limited by the very real %15 million that he's being paid this year.
I will say that I don't really buy in to that origin story for all the deferments -- that it's the Lerners forcing Rizzo to operate on a cash budget and the tradeoff has always been less baseball buying power in the future -- but it's plausible.
That's it precisely, Anon 12:48.
That GM link is fun, thanks for sharing. I always thought we could spend our way to contention. Based on that link, we can sign Scherzer, Schwarber, and Bryant. Along with a few middling relievers.
Max - the one thing about spending into contention that isn't factored in... others will be spending too! You can always spend your money but you can't always get your guy even with fair guessing of the price before hand
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