Going through the Post's Nats Q&As used to be one of my favorite things. Boz would say something like "Matt Skole, Zack Walters, or Chris Marrero will make an All-Star team" or "Cristian Guzman might not be hitting but the Twins made the playoffs with him" or "Matt Chico started with a 4.50 era. Another lefty with a 4.50 ERA? Sandy Koufax" and I could blast him apart. No one would notice or care but it made me feel good. After the team got good and Boz left though there are less chances to do that. There are fewer dumb stretch questions being asked and everyone else covering the team have been mostly more judicious and skeptical, Janes and "Zimm is on another field running fast and free!" excepted.
But the bad times are back and so are the hopes and dreams and yesterday's Q&A did present a few things, while I won't say are worthy of blasting, are at least worth a look at.
1) Jesse notes that the leader in the clubhouse for 3B might be Carter Kieboom.
I suppose this is right. He still is only 25 and he really did show promise once. But man that is disheartening. He's been so bad everytime he's come up that the idea of watching him play 3B for another 30-80 games is something I don't look forward to. I'm not sure what the alternative would be. I'd love to see Vargas do well but he is 31 and the history is iffy. Jake Alu is older than Kieboom and his rise has been a slow march of "pretty good". Seems like the ideal position to try again with a Hernandez or Franco type.
2) Barry's digs himself a hole by bringing up Max when talking about Gray. He immediately clarifies Gray is no Max and he just means he should get better like Max got better but he leaves out some tangible points
Max's ERA was 4.12, better than the average at the time and his FIP suggested he was pitching even better at a 3.87. His best feature - his 9.2 K/9 - was much better than league average (7.1)
Gray's ERA is 5.14, worse than the average and his FIP suggests it's even grimmer, 5.96. His best feature - his 9.8 K/9 - is better than the league average (8.6) but not as much so.
Max's 24 age season had the same weaker 2nd half that Gray's has seen. It has the same increase in homers. But Gray's is much weaker and has much more homers. The optimism for Max came from his pedigree and stats. For Gray it's just the pedigree right now. It's hard to look at the evidence from 2022 and see him better than high 4.00s next year (assuming same environment) which still makes him below average.
3) Barry's says "I'll dig into what I think is the worst Nats team in the next week or so." HEY! COPYCAT!*
4) Someone asks if the Nats gave up more for Eaton than they got back for Soto. The answer, as Barry notes, is no. But it's not so far apart that you don't have to at least think about it for a second. The thing though that makes it a question is the development of Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning after the deal.
Of course Soto's deal was for Soto and Eaton isn't Soto. And Soto's deal was also for Bell. Eaton's was just for Eaton. But Eaton had four very reasonable years in hand. You get 2+ underpays, but still expensive, deals for Soto and a half-year of Bell.
It does feel like either they didn't get enough for Soto (unlikely given just the world we live in now) or gave up too much for Eaton (more likely but definitely influenced by results). You can tell I lean toward the latter.
5) Someone asked if Fedde was a major league starter. Jesse side-stepped a direct answer. The direct answer is "No".
*Actually it's a pretty standard thing to think about with very bad teams.
4 comments:
I miss slamming the Boz comments. Those were fun days!
Based on Rizzo's comments after the Soto/Bell deal my understanding is that Soto was for Gore/Abrams/Hassell/Wood and Bell was for Susana, seems like they were higher on Susana that any other prospect haul they could have gotten for Bell elsewhere.
Kieboom/Vargas is a much better plan than Kieboom/Franco, you have to see if Kieboom is ever going to be anything, and even if Vargas comes back down to earth at the plate at least his D + versatility + Parraesque clubhouse presence is worth it.
Harper, it’s ridiculous to think that the prospects in the Eaton trade are even within striking distance of the Soto/Bell trade. Gore and Giolito are similar: top 10 pitching prospects who had lost some luster. Both dominated the minors. Both had some issues in MLB. You might like Giolito better because he had TJ already and had come back. You might like Gore better because he’s lefty and - unlike Giolito at the time - had a stretch of actual success pitching in the big leagues. Let’s call Gore and Giolito a wash.
Now you’re looking at Lopez + Dunning vs Abrams, Hassell, Wood, and Susana. That’s not remotely close, and it’s not remotely close even if you remove Susana and claim he is the return for Bell. On a value basis, I think each of these three pieces in the Soto deal - Abrams, Hassell, and Wood - is worth Lopez + Dunning. Maybe not Wood because he’s so far away. Still: Soto haul for the Nats >>>>>>>>> Eaton haul for the White Sox. As it should be.
I think Barry is a nice guy, but a bit bland. And I don't like the way the weekly chats are limited to one subject these days. I reached out to Barry about that and he said his bosses said content focused on one subject was easier to repurpose online or something like that. But that means that if something big happens in another sport the chat does not plan to focus on, they just ignore it, which is silly. I get that Boswell overdid his pronouncements but I loved his wit and willingness to go out on a limb and his deep, deep background knowledge. He also was willing to be harsh from time to time, but Barry, as I said is bland.
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