As said in the season preview - the pitching was going to be better because it HAD to be better. the 2022 Nats flirted with being named among the worst staffs of all-time. Even terrible teams don't usually see that. With some better planning for the rotation and some returning decent arms in the pen we should see some better results. And we have!
The Positives
Gore (3.43 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.381 WHIP) - Gore has looked good. Like many a young arm his stuff is pretty unhittable (H/9 and HR/9 are very good) and control is his biggest issue. Still that LOB rate is likely a little fluky so if he wants to keep having good results as opposed to ok ones, he needs to get the walks in line. Still either way he looks like a 2-3-4 with upside ans if he can stay healthy (HUGE if) a staple of the rotation for the near future.
Josiah Gray (3.74, 5.76, 1.477 ) - Gray isn't as good as he has seemed recently, or at least he hasn't pitched as well as his results (the talent may be there to be this good) but for Gray for me the whole thing comes down to one thing - homers. He's given up only 1 in his last three starts and that Gray can be a rotation mainstay. Given the lack of Ks it's more likely 3-4-5 ish but that's better than the High K - Lots of Homers Gray that would be AAAA ish.
Trevor Williams (3.52, 4.62, 1.174) - Can Williams stretch out into a starter. The early indications are yes, though the drop in Ks is concerning. That's a lot of ball in play and his BABIP suggests that ERA will rise. But even with that he's a usable rotation arm that would keep most teams in most games. Not this one mind you but most. And as trade bait with a hot streak and/or a little luck the Nats might get something decent (in the modern trade sense) back for him.
Mason Thompson (1.35, 3.39, 0.600) - Yes, he's getting lukcy (BABIP .176 and LOB% 92% are both unsustainable), but his 9 K/BB ratio is fantastic and he's getting good GB numbers. Tick up the Ks a bit more and he might be a legit dominant reliever.
Carl Edwards Jr (1.08, 2.71, 1.080) - Guys aren't hitting him well. Is it a fluke? Hard to say. He isn't getting lucky per se so it's tough. But given the overperformance last year I'm willing to give him some benefit of the doubt
The Middle Ground
Corbin (6.30, 4.88, 1.750)- He's Corbin. Guys hit him and he gives up homers and he doesn't K anyone. But it's been years now. Let's not act surprised anymore
Ward/Harris/Ramirez - generally meh by FIP and WHIP Ward might strike a guy out. Harris will keep it in the park. Ward and Harris are sort of single use cases that you then hope you can get an inning from. Ramirez is more of a general use type, early game, blowouts. There's nthing special here but nothing terrible. It's the back of a pen for a bad team. This is what that looks like if done right.
The Negatives
Hunter Harvey (3.52 / 5.15 / 1.304) My pick to click has been
a minor disappointment and it's a shame because with Thompson and
Edwards cruising one more good arm could actually make you feel good
about the Nats top pen. He's started chasing Ks and getting walks but
was pretty effective getting neither. It's early and this is only a
slight negative.
Chad Kuhl (8.59 / 7.28 / 1.705) He's bad and probably needs to go. And for the 5th starter on a bad team that isn't surprisingly. BUT it's a negative because of why he's here in the first place. The Nats have no immediate depth to replace him. The AAA starters have ERAs of 3.92, 5.02, 7.07, 8.44, 9.82, and 16.88. That 3.92? Joan Adon who completely does not look like a major league pitcher. So this is bad here and worse because it likely can't be fixed quickly or easily. You have to dumpster dive FAs and the Nats probably aren't inclined to do so, especially if 3 of the Top 4 are eating enough innings. One injury though to not Corbin and things can get even bleaker if you can imagine
Kyle Finnegan (9.95 / 10.11 / 1.895) The Nats closer has been so bad you wonder if he is hurt. He was good last year and generally ok so this is a surprise and a bad one. I expect Thompson to replace him soon and for him to have a stint on the IL.
Anthony Banda (7.20 / 5.73 / 2.00) The Nats are dumb. Matt Cronin looked good in spring and the Nats didn't have a lefty arm. With no real reason to pick any one else the Nats should have kept Cronin. But Banda is the vet, even if he's never really been good so they kept him to keep Cronin's clock from starting I guess. You know how important it is to control the time of a 25yo reliever. Anyway Banda stinks. He's the waste of a spot.
The fringes of the Nats situation - 5th starter, lefty reliever - have been very bad, but outside of that only Finnegan and whatever has gone on with him has been a big negative. Otherwise they are doing ok and it shows with a slightly below average pitching staff as of now. I expect that won't hold as injuries bite into the staff but really the keys are the guys 25 and younger. Gore, Gray and Thompson all have looked good. As long as that holds where the staff ends up overall doesn't matter as much.
5 comments:
One thing I'd add is that Kuhl is already the 6th starter. So of course he's terrible. Even good teams often struggle with SP depth.
Cavalli's injury is the most impactful downside surprise we've had so far this year, but we won't know how impactful it is for like two more years.
Kuhl (and Corbin) being terrible is expected and unfortunately kind of fine, once you allow for the boundary conditions self-imposed by the team. They aren't blocking anyone interesting for at least the first half of the year and probably not until next year. Until they, or similar, pitchers get innings that could reasonably be given to Cavalli, Rutledge, Bennet, Susana etc, their only negative impact is losing games that don't matter (again, if you accept the situation as the team defines it).
If the team wants to try Adon again, or give Irvin a chance, great. If not, fine. I don't expect any of them to be in our 2025 rotation.
My preference would have been to bring in another decent or better FA starter. A few months of fan service, and then a trade to contender for a prospect. But most owners don't actually think like that and most fans don't demand it. (Including me! I'm watching, and ENJOYING, this brand of terrible baseball. Such a sucker.)
I'm waiting for the fangraphs analysis, but at least to my eye, Gore's control issues are tied to mechanics. They just don't seem consistent. Seems like he's constantly tweaking where his foot lands or the arm angle on his breaking balls or when he breaks his hands. That very much is a coachable issue and why it hasn't been remedied is beyond me. You can argue maybe the kid's stubborn, but given the history, I'll put that squarely on the Nats coaching staff.
I actually like this new Gray. He's pitching kinda like how we all expected Stras to pitch when he came up. Not a lot of K's but inducing weak contact (obviously Stras quickly became a strikeout pitcher). He's 93rd% in Avg exit velocity and 86th% in hard hit %, the drop in homers isn't just random luck. Now if he could focus on lower velo, higher spin rate breaking balls, he could really turn into a strong #2 type pitcher
Good analysis Harper. A couple things:
1) Why is the overused Finnegan the closer? Is this a loyalty thing? I would actually rather see Harvey in the spot to see if he can turn things around. When it comes to moving Thompson to the CL role, I’m hesitant. He seems to be doing fine where he is, so don’t break something that doesn’t need fixing (think Blake Treinen-pre Oakland).
2) Cronin is absolutely being held back to delay his clock. No other reason makes sense.
3) One other note on player’s psyche: good performance not being recognized by promotion is just as bad for player development as it to rush a player through the minor leagues. Sometimes you catch lightning in a bottle and fast-track a guy through the system (Soto) and the kid never looks back. I’d rather see quick promotions TBH. When I see a guy like Cavalli who had all those innings and starts/innings in AAA… why? Sure he ended 2021 in Rochester on a bad note, so he should have started 2022 there. But at the first sign of success, he should have been brought up. But he wasn’t. Because Rizzo didn’t want to start his clock. I get it. However, having a top prospect toil in the minors for no reason isn’t beneficial to the player or the team. Just some musings on the subject.
TLDR: the longer a player stays in the Nats minor league system, the more they are damaged goods when they arrive in DC (if they ever make it there). And while I don’t think highly of the MLB coaching staff or medical/training personnel, they are worlds better than whatever people we have running things in the minors. And that’s saying something.
Ole PBN, I'm really glad you raised this point. I continue to think that the most important upgrade we can and should make to the team is to get a legitimate manager and coaching staff here.
I hear a lot from fellow Davy critics in my circle and the most common refrain is something like "well, we're not trying to win anyway, so let's let him take the bullets until we are ready to compete."
But that ignores the damage being done on the development side. Perhaps we have to wait until the ownership situation is settled. Sigh.
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