I know everyone is excited by the recent exploits of Gray and Gore. The latter has ace stuff working outside of his control, which is often the last thing star guys get. So let's say everything works out and the Nats have a #1 in Gore and a good 2/3 type in Gray. Rebuild set for success? Well I have two words for you.
Miami. Marlins.
The Marlins have spent much of the past 3-4 years with a true ace pitcher in Sandy Alcantara, and a very good 2 in Pablo Lopez. They've had cheap arms like Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, and Zach Thompson who have been everything from serviceable to maybe also a good 2. They have had a much better rotation than the Nats could probably hope for, and at dirt-cheap cost, and they have nothing to show for it outside a fluke shortened season playoff series. Why? They don't hit.
The Nats, despite their recent outburst, also don't hit. Maybe Keibert can keep up his recent hot hitting, but few people think he's capable of being a team carrying bat. After that Abrams and Garcia trade off who looks bad and who looks merely below average, and there isn't anyone else under 27 on the team right now.
The kids? Ok Brady House looks really good today. But everyone was ready to write him off for Wood and Green to start the year, both of who have cooled down a ton. Hassell is still working his way out of injury one step at a time. And can these guys be stars? Maybe, but remember what House is doing for almost a month in A ball as a 20 year old gets you excited but Soto was hitting .282 with 34 homers in the majors when he was 20. THAT'S a star.
Gore and Gray along with Mason Thompson, if they work out, are Step 1. You need to take Step 1.
But you also need Step 2 (Develop some hitters) and Step 3 (Develop a little rotation depth, and a couple more pen arms) and definitely you need Step 4 (Spend money to fill in the talent gaps).
You don't have to have all this in the majors but it does have to be on the cusp and looking very strong before you can say the rebuild looks successful. It can happen in a season, or over a couple of them, but what's clear today is that it hasn't happened yet. What's also clear is that it isn't even the end of APRIL yet. I'll say it again but stats don't really get real until Memorial Day.
Be pleased, but be realistic. A team has to get to here to get to there but here is still nowhere other than a step on the path.
13 comments:
Well, I'll put it this way - the first 2 weeks of the season, I was wondering if I should just give up and find a new team, because the Lerners are in denial about the value of the team, and they looked like a 120-loss team.
They're at least kinda watchable now. And they get on base a ton - they just need 2 mid-tier bats who hit doubles to be a 70-win team, which is at least watchable.
I hope they don't break these arms in a non-contention season...
I was saying basically the same thing yesterday. Just a little more than the zero power they currently have and maybe they're looking at 70-80 wins. If Meneses gets back to hitting bombs, that's a start. Then you just need someone (Garcia?) who can hit doubles and 20-ish HRs and suddenly the team is a lot more fun.
@Harper -- I don't think anyone means that all the talent we'll ever need is currently in the system and on pace, with no need for acquisitions or upside surprises.
But I think it's more than a little ridiculous to assume that our ownership group will fail your Step 4 to the extent that the Marlins have. I mean, we can't know for sure. The younger Lerners having already won a ring not giving a shit? The new owners being simply terrible? That's possible, but it would be an extreme departure from how this team has been run over the past 15 years. I don't think it makes sense to add the phrase "assuming we don't run $100M payrolls indefinitely" to all of our predictions, though I certainly included that among my assumptions.
As far as Steps 2 and 3, yeah, nothing is certain, but I'd guess realistic median expectations from our current prospects to be 2 or 3 Ruiz level successes, ready by 2025 (though maybe not by opening day). If so, we'd still need something like one more frontline starter for $30M/yr, two star-ish 1B/OF/DH bats for $20M/yr each, $15M/yr to bolster the bullpen and $15M/yr to improve the bench. That's $100M in FA. Stras gets his $35M. So if we believe this team will spend $200M when in contention, that all fits through their arb years unless Gore wins a Cy Young or something.
And while you're right that we could get less from the kids, it's also not impossible that House or Wood does break out as a star. Or Cavalli comes back from TJ and is another SP2. Or whoever we draft 2nd this year crushes it. Etc.
I'm all for being realistic, but that's not the same thing as expecting worse-than-average luck.
Anon @ 12:49 -
I won't question the 2-3 Ruiz's part of this. Maybe a scooch high but prospects are all over the place. It could be two stars or it could be nothing. The most likely has to fall somewhere and where you put it is fine. But there are other wrinkles
Injuries - If you have two young pitchers you like in 2023 and you are pencilling in those two young pitchers to be good and healthy in say 2026. That's tough. You need quantity as well as quality
FA Availability - I think your take on spending money and the numbers all make sense. But will there be those types available? Can the Nats win signing everyone they need? More than likely that's something you build over 2-3 season not one offseason (which is kind of why I was on the sign a SS bandwagon when all the good ones were available) If the Nats start before 2024 they still might not be able to piece together the parts by 2025.
Ownership - I do think THIS ownership group would spend the money if the Nats are close to being a contender. But will it be this ownership group in 2025? Maybe the new one spends more, maybe it doesn't so that adds another question.
But really let's see where the team is at the end of May. I know I'm a pessimist but 22 or so teams won't have things working for them very well in 3 years. Easier to believe you'll be one of the 22 than the 8.
I agree with a lot of that.
Yes, there is an ownership question, though I think it's important to frame it as "the question exists" and not quite "we have reason to think the question might be answered poorly". Miami has guaranteed $20M+ like twice in 5 years. They are not a realistic comp for this team until we see some evidence that they are.
I will also 100% agree that the team I postulated can't absorb a major injury to one of its best players, but that's true for (almost) everyone. As far as I can tell, you just kind of have to hope for good luck, especially for pitchers.
And I'm way on your side when it comes to not leaving all the signing until after the young players are ready. At best you risk burning a year of the window and, as you say, at worst you limit your options and can't find the players you need at all. I kind of wanted to get a long term SS last year too. So, yes, if the right player is available this offseason, they need to sign them and not put all the pressure on one offseason to complete the team.
But, yes, let's wait until the end of May to better understand how to weight what we're seeing. For the minor leaguers especially, scouting the statline after two weeks is pretty silly. We shouldn't be any higher on House or lower on Green than we were a month ago. For the guys in the majors, I think we can see and believe approach and process improvements. But there's the risk that any changes won't stick and, in any case, the league will adjust, so my SSS worry is less that it isn't real and more that it's not predictive of future outcomes.
In the meantime, I'm just going to try to enjoy it.
Okay…I hear ya on most of this…but I do have one bone to pick. It seems like EVERY prospect hitter you compare their performance at X-age to Juan Soto’s performance at X-age. Why do you constant compare young hitters to a likely generational talent? Even in terms of star player Soto was unusually young for his performance level. Why don’t you compare these young guys to a much more common-place star. At age 20 Mookie Betts was crushing A-ball. At age 20 Aaron Judge was winning the Ameritrade College Home Run Derby. My point being that, no, none of these guys are Juan Soto, but if one of them was Mookie Betts it Aaron Judge, I’ll be just as happy.
Baby steps, baby steps.
Rizzo must be feeling pretty good about the Scherzer/TT trade and the Soto trade right now. Nothing is certain, but Gore does seem to be improving and learning how to manage his arsenal.
Lets not give up on Abrams. One grand slam does not a star make. But he's very young as a player and may turn out to be Turner-esque. Though still lost in the field and at the plate much of the time, he's getting better.
A few more competitive series like those played against the Mets and the Twins. Heads will start to turn. And yes, this team is SO much more entertaining than last years disaster.
Agreed. Even if the team ends up last in the division (pretty likely) or the league (still possible), they are interesting to watch, with some key improving players who are fun to keep an eye on. Plus, I love inside baseball so all the singles and walks are music to my ears (just wish they’d learn to steal more).
GhostJD - well part of it is that people were sorting saying Wood was the next big superstar like Soto so I was reacting to that but let's see something. Keeping out college draft guys what were the best players in the game today doing at age 20...
Ok a quick run through of leaders and names of guys not currently leaders says I'm being a bit unfair but only a bit
1) While a couple snuck in as teenagers, a LOT made the majors at 20. But I suppose that path is still possible for a guy like House
2) a few didn't get to the majors until later but all by 22. Betts by 21. Plenty of time for that though. ALL were in at least A+ ball but I expect to see House there.
The basic idea holds - if you are going to be a non out of college star 9 out of 10 times you show it immediately and are up in the majors by 22. Let's say being generous to the prospects 50% of the time you are up by 20.
So sure maybe one of these guys will be a Betts. But most of Betts peers would see him as a little of a late bloomer. And the clocks ticking on being a Betts.
Yeah, Harper, you're a pessimist. It's part of your charm :)
The Nats' don't need all of the group (House; Wood; Green; Hassell; etc.) to become stars. If they get one star and 2-3 solid major league starters that would be a good result. The pitching will have to sort itself out and will almost certainly require a major FA investment, possibly two.
On the pitching front, I am intrigued by Thaddeus Ward. The run that he gets on his pitches is insane; it's like he's throwing a wiffle ball. They have to stash him in the bullpen this year because of Rule 5, but I would not be at all surprised if the Nats stretch him out to be a starter next year. He's young in baseball experience; although he's 26 he lost a full year to COVID and then lost another year to TJ surgery. Is he likely to be a TOR guy? Not really. But as a solid #3 Gio Gonzalez type? I could see that.
While we are being pessimistic, can we talk about Lane Thomas's fielding in right? It's still April, and I've seen three bungled running catches toward his right (as Victor Robles approached from center), that triple that skipped by Lane earlier this week and then last night's triple that looked kind of catchable. I know he's fast and has a good arm, but is he sneaky bad as a fielder?
He's legit terrible in center, like unplayable. If he hit like a corner outfielder he'd be fine but he doesn't so he doesn't have a position. He is a placeholder though so it's fine.
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