One home run.
In his past four starts, Gray has allowed one home run. While Colorado and the Mets, who are really Alonso and a bunch of low power guys, aren't exactly home run power houses, the Orioles and Angels are decent enough showing this isn't just about match-ups. Gray is pitching better and specifically last night he pitched maybe his best game of his short career.
His lack of homers was great, his general hit and walk rates were fine. But going into last night you wanted to see more Ks. You got more Ks. 9 in 6 innings.
Right now you have to feel pretty good about Josiah.
Of course this comes with caveats. Last year he did have stretches like this. In fact he did start the season with a 3-2 record and a 3.12 ERA and have a 10 K game (though one with 10 baserunners and a homer). He also had a five-game stretch where he threw to a 1.24 ERA. It seems hard to remember now but Gray was 6-4 last year sporting a 3.82 ERA at the end of June for a team that was 26-48. I myself had shifted him from a 3-5 in my head to a 2-4 type.
Then the rest of the season happened. Over his last 3 months he had a 6.26 ERA and gave up 23 homers in 14 games, in 73 innings mind you. I did note that he hadn't pitched more than 130 innings and tiring was probably going to happen. That is one thing to chalk up for 2023 - he now has a long season under his belt and the arm strength and knowledge about pacing and recovery that goes with it.
Is there anything specific in how he's pitching right now that might give us more confidence? Yes!
- Far more ground balls. From 33.0% GB 49.2% FB in 2022 to 43.8% and 41.3% so far this year. HUGE
- Big drop in hard hit rate. 29.8% to 21.3%
- Far fewer fastballs (43.0% to 23.9%) and the introduction of a cutter as a fourth pitch.
- Getting more contact on pitches out of the zone 55.9% to 63.4%
All these are also trending in the right direction from 2021 though that was in 70 IP. These are the numbers of a pitcher who is in control, who is getting batters to do what he wants them to do, not simply trying to get them to swing and miss.
So who is Gray? We still don't know. But the improvement year to year suggest he is that rotation guy Nats fans were thinking they had 80 games into last year. With Gore looking like one too this year becomes about trying to figure where they settle 1-5 and then what they have to spend accordingly to fill out the rotation. IF the hitting doesn't also need help.
12 comments:
So? If you're not afraid of SSS, do you offer Grey & Gore long-term contracts? Or are pitchers too chancy?
Last night's game was fun to watch.
But Harper makes a good point about Gray having stretches of very good pitching last year too, which I think frames this as very encouraging progress but not yet definitive. The reason is that Gray's bad stretches last year were awful. Unplayably bad for a team that's trying to win.
Gray improving his A game is great, but based on what we've seen over the past couple years it's how bad he is when he struggles that will end up determining whether he's a 2/3 or a 4/5 or worse. And for that I think we need to see the whole season.
That said, if both Gray and Gore look to be at least pitchers who can be backend starters on a playoff team when healthy, then I love the idea of extending them this offseason. It might not even cost that much since they're both pretty far from FA.
He definitely has to either drop the WHIP below 1.000 or stop giving up an inordinate number of homers - door #2 should be the easier option, so hopefully we're seeing serious efforts in that direction
Anon @7:29. Now THAT'S a good question. I think because you have more than one you like you do offer Braves like contract extensions figuring one will pan out and give you great value and the other won't but it'll still be worth it. Sign Garcia and Thompson too. The trick with these is spreading the risk around so if one or two don't pan out at all it's covered by the "savings" in another place.
Anon @9:14 My hope is that last year was mainly a stamina issue that will play out less and less going forward now that he's hit a full year of IP. Given how he looked pre ASB last year and so-far this year I think that's not a crazy hope.
Expos - wouldn't expect the WHIP to drop that much but you know what? There's so little in the minors to really make that call. 55IP in AA & AAA combined. The guy was rushed pretty fast. I think the homer issue may in fact resolve itself as there was an immediate "this won't play" that he's had to react to, rather than maybe he can power through it. He WILL try to drop his HR rate. The question would be how does that effect everything else.
Expos - I agree with the idea that he has to drop the WHIP in order to make HRs less painful. But your target (WHIP < 1.000) is aiming very high. For me anything under 1.2 is good, anything under 1.0 is #1 starter material.
For reference out of 104 pitchers with 120 or more IP (no one pitches anymore) 16 had WHIPs under 1.00
But I think the point is if he's going to give up record numbers of homers basically no one can get on base. Which is true. But probably the most reasonable goal is either have a WHIP under 1.300 and a much lower HR rate, or a WHIP under 1.200 and a lower one. Either of those produces a usable non #5 type pitcher.
indeed! Just musing out loud about what he'd have to do if he *did* want to keep challenging every hitter and giving up 2 HRs per 9 innings. You *can* away with that with a WHIP under 1.000. Any higher and you don't have any Quality Starts. But I agree- if he can continue with the HR reduction, the WHIP target doesn't have to be nearly that draconian. I certainly hope he succeeds.
These new rules are stupid.
How about this Gore guy?
it's pretty huge that they're getting 5+ from their starters, last year it felt like they were lucky to get through 4, love what I'm seeing from Gray and Gore
Early doors, sure, but if both of these guys are legit 2/3s, this rebuild is going to work.
@anon 7:24
Ehhh...I would give it some time to see if either can keep this up through the majority of a season. However, having both do so well to start makes me more optimistic at least one will shake out and be part of the rotation going forward.
Meanwhile, how are the guys that got traded for Gray and Gore (and Ruiz, who currently has a.769 OPS as a C) doing?
Bell: .681 OPS
Soto: .684 OPS
Turner: .736 OPS
Max: 5.67 FIP, in goop jail
Soto is the only one still with the team the Nats traded with (at least while he still has arb years). Small sample size caveats of course, but it's not like plugging these guys in right now would have changed the Nats' season much at this point, and they may have lost them in free agency anyway.
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