CJ Abrams has 4 homers.
Luis Garcia has 10 walks
Joey Meneses is hitting .300
Which of these is most real? Meaning more likely to continue and grow?
Luis Garcia - 10 walks. 10 walks may not seem like too many. It would only put him in a tie for 159th place in baseball. So why talk about it? Because last year in 93 games he had 11. And the year before that in 70 games he had 11. He has not shown patience at the major league level and in the minors it's been no great shakes either. He is walking at a 6.7% rate and in the minors only broke that in a couple of quarter AAA seasons.
This is the hardest to judge if it's a fluke because even if we went into seeing if he was getting fewer strikes (doesn't seem to be the case), we don't know if there is a reason for that - like pitchers thinking he's going to chase. What we can say is his swing rate out of the zone is WAY down (28.3% from 43.7%) and when he is swinging out of the zone his contact rate is way up (82.4% compared to 66.3%). That's a whole hell of a lot fewer swings and misses. His swinging strike rate is down to 6.2% from 13.4%.
There's nothing here that isn't sustainable. I'd say there's a good chance that Garcia will continue to walk at this rate. This rate isn't special mind you, but it was BAD before. It's not bad now.
CJ Abrams - 4 homers. Like Garcia and his walks, Abrams didn't do homers. He had 2 with the Padres last year in 46 games and 0 with the Nats in 44. Also like Garcia, he had a couple of AAA quarter seasons that showed some pop promise but in the notoriously hitter friendly PCL.Otherwise his pop has been minimal.
Power is something they say develops but there's also a bit of luck involved which we suss out from abnormal HR/FB rates. Abrams though is only around 11.1% like Garcia it's not a great rate. Along with that he is hitting a tick more flyballs and he's hitting the ball a little bit harder. All in all there isn't anything screaming he can't keep hitting like this.
Also like Garcia this isn't special. If he keeps this up he'll hit 16, 17 homers but when you were thinking it might be a number under 10 it turns an area of concern into... not an area of concern.
Joey Meneses - .300 average. Joey was meant to supply power to the Nats, as he did last year with 13 homers in 56 games. And his minor league numbers show full seasons with good pop. He hasn't quite done that only putting two over the wall in 40 games so far. However he is hitting .300 which gives the Nats value.
This is the one that isn't likely to last. While he hits the ball pretty hard, he's hitting it softer than last year and while he hits a good number of line drives he's hitting fewer than last year. Ultimately he's hitting a bunch of balls lower and not as hard but more are finding holes leading to a .371 BABIP. That's a number you do see but it's usually for guys with the legs to beat out a lot of grounders. Joey doesn't have that.
I don't know where it will end up .280? .240? but Joey hitting for this average won't keep up. He still needs to find his power stroke.
21 comments:
I think you have those in the right order: Garcia >> Abrams >>>> Meneses.
Garcia has changed his approach. Holding these gains long term won't be automatic, and we'll have to see him counter-adjust to pitcher adjustments, not give up during the inevitable slumps etc. But after 150 PAs there basically is no doubt that his true talent profile has improved and that this is the "real" Garcia.
The data on Abrams's power isn't that solid yet because HR numbers are flukier. But he's a wiry 22 year old and growing into a little bit of power is totally reasonable and expected. I don't see a need to be skeptical.
For Meneses, there's no exogenous reason to think it's not luck and nothing in the data unlikely to be luck. So I'm assuming it's completely luck.
I also want to flag two negative trends and ask if you (and folks here) think they're real: Ruiz's framing and Abrams's fielding. Both are among the worst in the league. Is that bad luck or skill? And if it's skill, what are their chances of improving to even league average?
Anon, remember the Nats baseball mantra: "SSS are only relevant when the news is bad." Defensive metrics are very fluid; it usually takes multiple seasons to get a real sense of how good a player is, and that's double for catchers.
To follow on Hopeful Fan's comment from yesterday, a reason to appreciate the 2023 Nats, with all their myriad flaws, is that they are the flaws of a young team. The Nats have the youngest batter age (weighted by AB and GP) in MLB. Even with Corbin and Kuhl, the Nats pitching has been younger than league average. After opening against two of the best teams in MLB (Rays and Braves) the young Nats have played .500 ball (16-16) against decent/good teams. Combine that with the prospects in the minors also heating up, that's a team that one can hope on. What made last season such a soul sucking slog was being a terrible team with aging players and a bad minor league system. I know that Mike Rizzo is generally derided as an incompetent blithering idiot (for a GM, as with managers, it's an occupational hazard). But when I think of where the team is now as opposed to where it might have been with Juan Soto in the middle of an ongoing disaster, it's hard not to send some appreciation his way.
Like John C said - defense is hard to suss out and takes time. That being said - Ruiz does look, in a year and a quarter to be a poor framing and no more than average in other respects. Right now it's something to keep and eye on. I would guess though - probably real.
Abrams... I think it's all errors. His range looks fine. This is something that I think can be worked on.
If Rizzo does two full rebuilds, we'll have to give him some credit. While he might have some weaknesses, like building a player development system, and his choice of manager, his success as a talent evaluator is hard to ignore.
Rizzo's one of the best GMs in MLB, got to be top five or six given the amount the Nats won for 7-8 years. He had a couple turrible decisions, like hiring Matt Williams and trading for Papelbon, and they could be better at player development in the minors, but he's pulled off some of the best trades of the last 15 years and his other managerial hires were fine to great.
Low bar to clear but he's also by far the best sports executive in D.C., so maybe I'm grading him a little on a curve, but right now it feels like the young guys he traded for are mostly panning out.
Another thought on Mike Rizzo: I'm cautiously optimistic that the complete overhaul and expansion of the analytics department over the last two offseason are starting to bear some fruit. To the extent that player development has been a Rizzo/org weakness, successfully addressing that weakness would be huge.
And, while most aspects of catcher defense are hard to quantify, pitch framing does stabilize quicker. Ruiz (and Adams) have both struggled with framing, and that may be a factor into why, if you look at the "ump scorecards" after games, the Nats get the short end of the strike zone stick on a regular basis.
Will pitch framing even matter when the robot umps arrive? We do seem to get the short end on the strike zone, so couldn't happen soon enough in my book.
All the myriad rules, particularly pitch clock, have been a success....can we hope that emboldens MLB to move quicker on the robot umps. PS still hate the ghost runner rule...but have to take a little bad along with the incredible good.
Yeah, I'm not sure I believe that catching framing stats are slow to converge. Ruiz has received over 1000 pitches already this year.
Maybe the theory is that variance among umpires is important or intra-umpire variance is important (like who's having a bad day in a way that correlates with the kinds of things a particular catcher or pitcher is good/bad at).
It's also interesting how the umpire scorecards also have us getting among the worst calls in the league while hitting. I mean, maybe Meneses being so tall hurts us a bit, but that's got to be random chance right? And I guess if that's chance, there's maybe hope that the Ruiz end of it is also chance, at least somewhat?
I don't know. But yeah, robot strike zones can't come soon enough. I'm also super excited for folks to develop crazy breaking balls that nick the zone in ways that would never get called by human umps.
On Meneses: perhaps the shift being eliminated this year helps his case for a higher batting average? Are these formerly ground-outs turned into hits "luck"? Or are they actually hits?
I think BABIP is a flawed statistic this year because its the only year (in recent memory?) that the shift has not been allowed.
Rizzo is a very good GM. It's easy to complain about the GM (all fans do it, except for the Dodgers who have a magic touch), but it's tough to evaluate talent and to fill in the gaps on what used to be a playoff team, and it's tougher now because the owners' won't spend any money. Be careful what you wish for: the next GM might be a lot worse. Look at the Wizards: they've made bad draft choices and bad trades for decades. Likewise with the Washington Football Team.
I think McPhee is also a very good GM. He's being tested now; we'll see if he can put together another playoff team for next year.
I think Meneses will start to hit for some power, but his average will drop to .280. That's okay. He hits the ball hard. Pitchers now have the book on him, and yet, he's still hitting (for average, at least).
I don't see Abrams hitting much more than 10 - 12 home runs in the next few years. If memory serves, his home runs are all pulled down the line, and with the exception of the last home run, the ball isn't hit very far. He's just not strong enough to hit bombs. It's not like Trea Turner hitting 400 feet plus home runs to center and right center.
I need a place to express outrage at Steve Adams of MLBTR in today's chat. He's usually good, but not today:
Cardinals
1:28 What about swapping Nootbaar for a guy like McKenzie Gore? Could that be a building block for a trade?
Steve Adams
1:29 I would be stunned if the Cardinals traded Nootbaar. More so than with any of their other outfielders.
(Well, Jordan Walker excluded)
I know that the question came from a Cardinal's fan and the extra outfielder in St. Louis is a frequent topic at MLBTR, but I don't know why he didn't react to the preposterous idea that Gore would be available in a trade and that the trade would be for an outfield of all things.
The thing that tells me (from the eye test) that Abrams may develop some power is that he hits a lot of deep flyballs. He's putting the barrel on the ball and it's just not carrying completely over the fence. But the dude is scrawny, so if he's able to bulk up a bit, those flyballs can turn into homeruns.
The thing that bothers me more about Abrams is that he should be the kind of guy looking to plug the gaps for doubles/triples, but nearly all his XBH have been pulled down the RF line. If he can learn to sit back a bit more and hit line drives to the center of the field, his power profile will also go up.
Couple things
Yeah the shift does change things on BABIP I imagine but the general "BABIP doesn't get this high for slow players" fact is true. So it will almost definitely go down but my sense on how far could be off.
I've always liked Rizzo and think he's good. There's obvious flaws in his drafting strategy and the evaluation process he's put in for that (int'l signings seem better) and development is a question but the question you have to ask yourself are you going to find someone better? I just don't think so. It's a big gamble to drop Rizzo.
Steve Grossman - It's actually... not crazy. At least not today. Nootbar is a legit star right now, he's been successful at the plate and can hang in CF. He's only 25 and is under contract for the same time as Gore. You would build around him. Gore, for as good as he looks this year, has only thrown 110 major league innings and has an injury history. Pitchers have more value so if Gore can keep this up - be healthy and a near 1 - he'll pass Nootbar in value, probably at year's end but right now it's an honest question. (would I do it if I were the Nats - no way. You need cheap pitching to rebuild. You can find hitting... well at least it's easier to try.)
I hate the idea of robo strike zones. Pitch framing is part of the game. It’s a skill to learn. It’s part of the game in the same way that expanding the strike zone is for a pitcher. As much a part of the game as individualized strike zones. I hate the direction the game is going. The ghost runner rule is stupid. You should EARN the base, not have it given to you. The shift ban is completely ridiculous. You should be able to put your fielders wherever you want them. If you want 8 guys standing down the first base line you should be able to do that. It’s like the NFL banning a free safety position because they want more big plays. It’s stupid. You should be able to play defense however you think gives you the best chance to win.
And the robo strike zone…why do they have to kill every human element to the game. I’ll be interested to see if the zone accounts for different player heights or if it will be just an imaginary box that we have arbitrarily decided is a strike. I just hate to see the game changing so much because fans are complaining about fair. Fair? The game, like life, had strokes of luck and rough patches of adversity. Fair ups are for college. This is the pros…play better and quite whining.
The BABIP discussion intrigued me. It's logical...no shift = more ground balls find holes = higher BABIP. So I looked at the data. What follows is BABIP data for all of MLB for each of the last six years (ignoring that pitchers aren't hitting now either). A little higher this year but not excessively, and none compared to the earlier years in the sample. I don't see any real correlation. Bad news I guess for Meneses.
2023 .297
2022 .290
2021 .292
2020 .292
2019 .298
2018 .296
@Harper. Thanks for the clarification on Nootbar. I started out where you ended: why would a rebuilding team--whose top 3 prospects are outfielders--trade a decent (quite possibly better than decent) pitcher for an outfielder, even a star?
I know the odds are low, but let's say things continue to click this season and we start seeing these young guys form a core...what's your take, Harper, on going after Ohtani?
My 2 cents, not Harper. How much better are they (at least 80 games won or a sizzling August/September)? Has MASN been resolved? Have the Lerner's either sold or recommitted to ownership? So, definitely a low probability given how many things have to align. MASN probably the hardest of the three to imagine happening by free agency in November.
Nootbar a “legit star.” @Harper I didn’t know you were one to exaggerate. “Decent” might be more accurate for a 25 year old player with a little more than a full season’s worth of experience and a .243 career batting average. Gore straight up? How about Lane Thomas? That’s more of a conversation.
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