Strasburg's career has four distinct periods. A early spring full of promise where a kid who possibly could be the greatest pitcher ever broke into the light and blossomed in front of the baseball world. A harsh summer where despite decent performance, a harsh spotlight shone down on him and the dark shadows of a shutdown, bad starts, and better arms kept him in the dark. A classic fall where at the last possible moment Strasburg gave one of his best performances saving a playoff series and his reputation and setting up the big time playoff pitcher that he'd be leading the Nats to a title in 2019. A grey winter where injuries would immediately beset him and deny him all but the briefest enjoyment of reaching the pinnacle of his career.
Today we'll talk about the first part.
The Promising Spring of Strasburg
It hard to forget the excitement that surrounded the first game of Strasburg's career, but it's easy to forget that this excitement wasn't just contained to Nationals fans. Stephen Strasburg was possibly the greatest pitching prospect EVER. He had come from nowhere. He didn't pitch well in high school but was able to get a chance with nearby San Diego State because he was big and could throw hard. Something clicked early in college and by his junior year he had four elite pitches and could control each one. He had the size and touched 100 MPH at a time when not everyone was, especially starters. He started his last college year as the expected #1 pick and ended it the same completely dominating along the way. He had a 13-1 record, a 1.32 ERA, and 195 Ks to only 19 walks in 109 IP. That's a 16.1 K/9 and a 10.26 K/BB*. You don't see kids do this. His name is brought up even today 15 years later to compare top draft picks (search Skenes & Strasburg if you don't believe me) and they continue to find every other potential #1 pick lacking in that comparison.
Strasburg's drafting was followed by a fast blossoming in the minors. He shutdown hitters in AA (.165 / .233 / .190 with 27Ks in 22 IP) and AAA (.154 / .202 /.205, 38Ks 33.1 IP). He was living up to the hype, building on it, and on June 8th 2010 we have arguably the biggest moment in Nats history as Strasburg debuted. The entire baseball world watched as he easily handled the Pirates at home. Strasburg struck out 14 in 7 and looked every bit as dominant as a first time starter could look. He had arrived.
Four games into his career he had an ERA of 1.78 and 41 Ks. Eight games in 2.03 and 68 with a 4-2 record for a team that would win 69 games that year.* It was the start everyone wanted only dampened by the fact the Nats team itself, after a short three game winning streak, went 12-26 after his debut. But then before a start late in July against Atlanta, Strasburg couldn't get warm in the pen.** He was shutdown for a couple weeks before he'd pitch again. The Nats fanbase, baseball fans everywhere honestly, held their breath. In his first game back he didn't look like himself at all, but with no issues to note it was hoped it was rust. A solid game versus Arizona followed after that and fans let out a sigh of relief. A lot of people were living and dying with this kid already. But the relief would only last a game. In the 5th inning of his next game against the Phillies showing no prior issues he grabbed his arm and exited the game. This time there would be no rest and return. It would be the dreaded ligament tear. Tommy John.
This was bad news but somehow it didn't feel terrible. It was almost as if TJ was expected and it was better to get it out of the way now, while the Nats were still coming into form, than a couple years down the road in the middle of a playoff push. Fans seems disappointed and concerned but not defeated. "He'll be back. Let's see what happens", was the vibe. The new hope that he, and the drafting of Bryce, brought to the team couldn't be easily extinguished
And what happened, in a ever improving world for TJ surgeries, was a quick recovery that put him back on the mound in a mere 12 months. He started basically a game at each level in the minors moving around as his schedule matched up with the teams at home with only one minor hiccup. He re-debuted in September and while not dominating, he held the Dodgers down for five. He'd pitch some more on a tight pitch count and on his last start he seemed to re-emerge. A 10K, 6 inning 1 hit masterpiece that said "look out for next year"
Next year, 2012, started as you wanted but as it went on it was clear things were different. Yes, he remained on strict control with low pitch counts and extra rest worked in but it was more than that. He wasn't as electric and it wasn't clear if the issue was the return to form from injury or a plan the Nats had about trying to keep Strasburg from going for strikeouts to save him pitches. Also Jordan Zimmermann and Gio Gonzalez were putting up ERA and K numbers right in line with Strasburg. He seemed less special. He lost a couple big games against Atlanta mid season. Some of the buzz was missing.
He was still the future ace, though, with the expectations that came with that. The Nats were planning to lean on him heavily in the future so in this year the plan was for a shutdown at some point around Labor Day. The Nats were viewing this season as a long season of recovery for Strasburg as they put their ducks in a row for 2013. But a funny thing happened. The Nats got good, very good. By the time September came around they were clearly going to make the playoffs. DC baseball! In the playoffs! There had been that insane 2005 flirtation with it but since then they had been mostly awful and only in 2011 did the idea that they could really build to it start to take shape. That they had arrived already? It was exciting.
Except not everyone was going to be along for the full ride. Strasburg was going to be shutdown and nothing was going to stop the Nats from doing it. They'd have plenty of chances in the future they believed, so why risk it all now. It was something that made sense from one viewpoint and completely didn't from another. Regardless of which side you were on, it did feel wrong to enter that first playoff series without the guy that was supposed to carry you all the way. The Nats would eventually lose that series in heartbreaking fashion and while Strasburg's replacement did fine, the questions would start. What kind of pitcher wouldn't go when his team needed him the most? Certainly he could have fought to be included in some way. He lost those important games, was Strasburg someone the type that could carry a team or was he someone that wilted under the pressure?
Strasburg had come into his own under a bright spotlight and did fine. But now came the the heat.
*Fun fact - despite debuting in June, Strasburg led the Nats in Ks before the ASB
**this led to Batista starting in his place and the infamous "Miss Iowa" slight.
9 comments:
Nice piece Harper and exactly how I remember it. 2012 was a special and fun season for the Nats franchise and the Strasburg shutdown somehow left a bad feeling. Then of course 2013 was an off year and the 2012 shutdown was questioned even more.
For a soulless automaton, sometimes you really show a remarkable understanding of human emotions.
Great piece, and I'm looking forward to the rest of the series.
Harper has never been an automaton. Neither is he soulless. It's just that he sometimes leaves his soul in his jacket pocket and it takes a while to find it.
For some reason nobody ever mentions the most remarkable factoid about Strasmas:
Strasburg walked 0 (ZERO) hitters in his sensational debut.
The Nationals handled the shutdown correctly for the team and for the player. Mark DeRosa is STILL salty about it because he was 37 at the time and didn't give a tinker's damn for the player or the team - HE wanted a WS, dammit, and knew that he didn't have much time left to get one. But in hindsight there is a better argument that the shutdown enabled the 2019 WS win much more than it cost them anything in 2012. To say nothing of comparing the careers with the pitchers (Kris Medlen; Matt Harvey; etc.) whose teams handled them differently.
He had a ridiculous K to walk ratio, especially in the 2019 playoffs.
The argument is they may have won a WS with Stras. But the requirements of your dominant pitcher during a deep / WS-level playoff run would have 110% broken young recovering strasburg.
Terrific piece, Harper. I love Stras, and your writing here does him justice.
Anyone who STILL argues the Nats coulda won it all in 2012 if they didn’t shut down Stras can only do so by ignoring that the Nats WON the game started by the guy who replaced Stras in the 2012 NLDS rotation.
And that Stras was pretty clearly hitting the wall in his last few starts on 2012.
And that (as mentioned before) both the 2012 Braves (Medlen) and the 2015 Mets (Harvey) tried the “hell with innings limits, we’re all in for the title!” (1) didn’t win titles those years and (2) both pitchers faded quickly after that. Less than seven seasons later they were out of baseball
While seven seasons later Strasburg was the WS MVP for the World Champion Washington Nationals.
A team he was still pitching for in part because he appreciated how the team had looked after HIS long term interests by signing an extension. A *BORAS* client telling Boras to get an extension done when the player was in what would have been his walk year. Apparently Strasburg wasn’t too mad at the Nats…
Game, set and match for the Nationals on the Strasburg shutdown. Anyone still arguing the Nats handled that wrong mainly demonstrates a refusal to listen to evidence—pure “My mind’s made up, don’t confuse me with the facts.”
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