Walker, Houston Astro

 Christian Walker is not a Nat. He's an Astro.  3/60.  It's a bit of an overpay by year but the idea of getting out of the contract in 3 years for a player his age is appealing.  Better this than a 4/64 or 5/65, imo. 

With Walker out that leaves three 1B that would likely next year be an obvious upgrade.  Pete Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Paul Goldschmidt. The latter two are older so a 1-2 year deal might be possible. I prefer Santana - a slick fielder and more likely to take the shorter deal.  There are other middling 1B (Conor Joe! Justin Turner!) but rather than that I'd have them sign like Joc Pederson to DH or something

 Time keeps moving on.

The Nats sign... not an ace

Michael J Soroka... wait a second... Hey it is J! Well actually J G, Michael John Graydon Soroka. 

One year / 9 million 

Soroka was a top prospect as a minor leaguer and lived up to the hype in his first full season. His 2.68 ERA was a bit of a mirage but a 21 year old throwing to a 3.25-3.50 ERA? In 2019? That's great and it nearly won him the Rookie of the Year. 

But here's the problem.  In his rookie year he started 29 games and threw 174 innings. In the next FIVE years he's started 18 and has thrown 126. That would be a worrying number if we were talking his average year. We're not. We're talking combined. And they haven't been good. 

Now we'll flip back to the good. He DID get better last year. More innings, fewer hits, fewer homers, more Ks. It wasn't close to a full season but it's the right trend coming off a two year injury hiatus

Flip. But one thing did get worse - his walk rate. It jumped to 5.0 BB/9!

Flip.  The Nats starting pitching surprised in 2024 by not walking anyone and not giving up homers. The hits came bc they didn't strike anyone out but with few people on base and the ball staying in the park the opponent had to string together hits and the runs were harder to come by. This is EXACTLY the type of pitcher Mike Soroka was when he was good. 

Flip. While he got better giving up homers last year, he still gave up a good number of them and he gives up a lot more fly balls now. If he is a flyable pitcher now there's only so much one can do with that. See Josiah Gray. 

Soroka is a gamble. Do the Nats need a gamble? I don't know.  Certainly not as the best arm they sign or even the second best but after that? Sure! Gambles are fun!  If it's a secondary move hitting one usually helps a lot more than missing one hurts. But is this a secondary move?  We can't answer that yet. 

If Soroka is not one of the best 2 SP brought in this off-season then I think this is an ok deal.  Not great.  Seems pretty expensive compared to the likely results. But ok. He was a Nats type of pitcher before getting hurt.  He's vaguely returning to some sort of form. Maybe you get lucky 

If Soroka IS one of the best 2 SP Brough in this off-season than this simply isn't enough.  It's a gamble then not only on Soroka but that everyone else in the rotation doesn't need more help. I don't like that gamble. If you are ready, you shouldn't need good breaks to get you winning, but bad breaks to get you losing.

Monday Quickie - Zipping to 4th

The 2025 ZiPS projections are out from fangraphs and while not something you should bet the house on (no projections are like that imo) it gives an idea of where the Nats are TODAY. And where they are is not very good! 

This shouldn't be surprising. They lost their best starting pitching (even abbreviated Trevor Williams was great enough to take this crown), their best pure hitter (Jesse Winker) and their likely best reliever Dylan Floro (Derek Law has an argument if you are the type that wants to argue).  They also dropped their 3rd best reliever (Finnegan) and a useful bat (Lane Thomas).  And in their place they've brought in... 

<insert cricket sounds> 

All that suggests a pretty stable team performance after a 71 win season, with the losses here balanced out by the losses of some really bad crap (Corbin, Rosario, Senzel, sadly Joey Meneses) and the improvement from the ton of younger players on the team.  They were the youngest team at the plate last year and younger than average on the mound and should drop down more. 

73 wins? 75? 

But this is telling us what we already know. The Nats need to get FA (or trade) help to make the playoffs more than a far outside possibility in 2025. The Nats have a month before "it's getting late early" but this is the story for the team right now. They need help. Will they get help?  Expect it repeated ad naseum until they give us something new to talk about by actually signing someone or it gets so late the talk changes to "what are they doing?"

Offseason Position Discussion : Starting Pitcher

The Nats starting pitching in 2024 was like the half-full half-empty glass of water. 

On one hand the Nats got an incredibly productive 13 starts from Trevor Williams, had no major injuries after April, and watched as three separate young pitchers in Jake Irvin (well... youngish), Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all showed a level of surprising competence. And it was the last year of Patrick Corbin! 

On the other hand, the last year of Patrick Corbin is still a year of Patrick Corbin. The injury they did have knocked Josiah Gray out for the year, a player they were hoping would make a huge step forward this year. The other huge step forward was desired from MacKenzie Gore, who showed some flashes but was mostly just ok. 

I think most people though, would end up looking at it half-full.  No they didn't find an ace but the Nats are probably happy in general with where they ended up. A rotation with 4 guys in their 20s pitching like 3/4s. 

 That's also not a playoff winning rotation, not unless these guys get better, someone steps up, someone gets signed, or the offense takes off. But that's a lot of options!

Presumed Plan : 

The rotation will feature MacKenizie Gore and three of Irvin, Parker, Herz, Gray, Cavalli with a FA signing in the 1 or 2 slot.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats have money to spend. But the Nats also have kids almost everywhere to evaluate.  So the spending is going to be concentrated on a few spots.

The rotation is no exception to having kids to evaluate. However when it comes to pitching "never enough" is a good mantra, and looking at the talent level of these guys, outside of Gore or maybe Herz if you squint, the chances of any of these guys being considered ace or near-ace is slim. 

So you sign someone you like to be a 1/2 and then you see what happens with the rest of them. Depending on that and who you sign and how they do, 2026's FA goals become clearer.

My Take :  

Yes, do this. Honestly they could sign two starters and I'd be happy with it. 

I don't like relying on non-prospect kids who are probably ok but could flame out and leave the Nats in real trouble. And yes "ok" is the best way to describe them. As solid as these guys seemingly were the Nats rotation was actually pretty mediocre overall. Alot of that was Corbin but take him out and replace him with a guy like the other 4 and you don't get that much better.  Hitting was down last year (NL OPS dropped from .740 to .719) so what appeared to be good season were just average. 

Not that you are angry with a 24 year old average pitcher but you don't want a rotation that's 5 of these.

They need a reliable ace-type and Corbin Burnes fits the bill. Plus replacing a bad Corbin with a good one would make me happy.  He's been consistently really good. The declining K rate is a bit of a concern but it came along with solid control keeping him a very good pitcher, if not great. Get him. 

Failing that there isn't a great pitcher unless you want to bet on Verlander (I don't). With potential still out there are Jack Flaherty (has hit 30 starts once in his career with mixed results after looking like a star. Was very good last year), then Kyle Gibson/Charlie Morton (steady, reliable, too old for more than a couple year contract though), then guys like Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, Sean Manaea who aren't really 1/2s. That's kind of why I want Burnes who seems to be as sure a thing as you can get.  There are some potential 1/2s next year (Cease, Gallen, Framber) but you can't rely on them getting to FA.

One last intriguing option is Patrick Sandoval. This is a guy who when he's right looks like a 1/2 but is coming off of Tommy John and will miss most of 2025.  He's a signing for the future and a gamble which makes him sort of fit with the Nats, who could then just evaluate everyone to start the year. And if you wanted to sneak a deal this may be a place to look. Of course this suggests punting 2025 for a playoff run.

 

Other notes

The Nats have been noted in interest for Gleyber Torres. As a Yankees fan I can say he's perfectly ok overall but has some real bad stretches at the plate and more importantly with concentration. Not a bad guy at all, but that makes him seems like a bad fit for the Nats who can obsess over that type of thing.

They picked up a relief Rule V arm in Evan Reifert. Looked real good in 40 innings of AA ball. Great stuff, but wild. They also lost Matt Cronin in the minor league portion. He looked like a guy set for the majors before getting hurt in 2023. Wouldn't surprise me if he became productive.

The Nats won the draft lottery. Early indications overall is that it's better than the weak 2024 class but mostly bc of high schoolers as opposed to college players who might be ready sooner and fit better in the Nats window. Still when you have the #1 pick all you care about is how the best guy is doing.

Soto to Mets

A bit slow on this - 15/765, signing bonuses, opt outs 

My general thinking is 

1) This stinks for me. I wanted him on the Yankees. I do view their offer as a reasonable effort and imagine Cohen was true to his word on not being outbid. I wouldn't be surprised if the bidding began in the low 600s and escalated to the point it ended at.  The Red Sox bowing out at 700 mill and the Yankees at their number. 

Ok so now use that money for a bunch of other things. The bottom of the lineup can't be Oswaldo, DJ, and Trent Grisham

2) This stinks for Nats fans.  Soto signing anywhere else would be bad but signing for another NL East team where you see them more times a year than any other player? And they are competing directly against you for titles? Ugh. 

What's worse on some level is not that the Nats didn't get Soto, as we talked about before. The Nats aren't a 15/765 team and that's fine! Like 2-4 teams are and guess what? More than 2-4 teams make the playoffs and they can also win the Series. But what's worse is that the Nats never looked in it.  They should be a 15/600 team and just hearing their name early on, even if it wasn't going to happen would have shown a level of seriousness in this window we haven't seen yet. 

3) Not sure what this means for Soto. Cohen has completely committed to spending money but also that hasn't quite resulted in a new dynasty forming. The Mets over the past 4 years have been underwhelming and face quite of level of competition with the young controlled Braves, the star driven Phillies, and yes, the potential up and coming Nats. 

He'll be great.  He'll get paid. If he wants to win... I think there were better places (and I'm not necessarily saying the Yankees). But you know what? Winning isn't guaranteed. Getting paid is.  So get paid. 

OK Nats.  Let's move forward now. Onward and upward. The bar has been raised for the NL East. Rizzo has some work to do/

Too early to worry

The Nats don't look to be in on Soto. 

That may disappoint but it shouldn't be a surprise given that he's going to push 700 million total and 60 per year.  Soto is for teams that are fine being Top 3 payroll letting money cover up their mistakes. That's not the Nats and it never has been the Nats. 

But that doesn't mean they won't spend. 

Now could it inflate the salaries of everyone to the point where the Nats are too gun shy over any single one? I suppose but we're talking conjecture here. Right now what we know is this : 

• The Nats have a fair amount of money to spend.  Depending on what they want to do that could be 50 to 100+ million*. That's a lot! 
• The Nats have shown in the past they will spend and be a Top 10-Top 5 ish payroll in the league if not out and out compete with the big boys. 
• The Nats have made hints that they will be more aggressive in FA this off-season
• The Winter Meetings haven't taken place yet. We're still very early in the process. 

 I still have high-ish expectations, with the issues being more about the talent on the FA market than the Nats willingness. You can get worried in a normal FA period when we get later in January, but not early in December. 

 *ok if they want to do nothing it could be 0 million but no one thinks that's the case

Offseason Position Discussion : Other OF

The Nats OF was not an issue last year.  It wasn't necessarily "good" but it was a relative strength while being the centerpiece for the plans for the future. It featured a mix of players outside of Wood and later Crews who we talked about last time. Winker (good!), Eddie Rosario (very bad!), and Alex Call (very good but much fewer PA) all started a decent number of games in the OF but the guys with the most time were Lane Thomas and Jacob Young.  Thomas hit well enough to keep himself a trade target and got sent away at the trade deadline.  Young fielded like a beast and hit well enough to keep the job. 

The question for 2025 is who joins Crews and Wood in the Nats OF of the future... of today

Presumed Plan : 

Jacob Young will start in CF

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

We talked about it in the comments a while back but Jacob Young played like possibly the best CF in baseball last year.  Wood needs defensive help and you don't want to rely on Crews, still learning the position at the major league level, to have to give it to him. 

While Alex Call has some history at being a very good fielder and shone with the bat for a month last year, he also has a unreliable history at the plate and more importantly is five years older than Jacob Young. If you are going to bet on someone for the future, which it seems like the Nats would do, it would be Young. 

They could also bring in a bat here but given the needs at 1B/DH and maybe 3B if they want to slow walk House or shake up the IF, letting the OF play out like this makes sense for a year. If Young doesn't come through then there's a target for improvement before 2026 which presumably will be the year they really try to make a playoff push.

My Take :  

This seems simple. Young, at 25 next year, deserves a shot to see if he can hit around average. If he fields like he did last year, that basically sets the Nats OF for the next half-decade (unless they want to move Wood).   

Also if Young doesn't hit he will at least give coverage to Wood, who has shown he may need it, while they find a solution in his place.  Having your worst hitter be a slick fielding CF is not a bad thing.

As for the alternatives. Long time readers know I'm not a fan of Alex Call. While I can't deny he can field and was impressed with his stint last year, it just doesn't makesense to gamble on a guy who hit poorly when given a real chance in 2023 and is going to be an old 30 next season. Personally I'd try to use his 2024 push to get something back and wish him well elsewhere. 

I'd use Stone Garrett who's been a fairly consistent solid OF in his limited chances, to be the 4th OF and possible replacement for Young if he struggles or Crews if he struggles hard.

The minors don't really have anyone else knocking at the door.  Hassell is now in "trying to get back to form" mode having passed the "recovering from injury" time frame. Daylen Lile did fine in AA but nothing that suggests he'll be forcing anything in 2025. I guess since the rest of the media does it here is an obligatory Elijah Green reference bc he was drafted high and had that one good month.

It doesn't seem hard. Let it play out with the guys you ended the season with. Fix things elsewhere. Hope it works out.

Offseason Position Discussion : 2/3rds of the OF

The Nats have two of the most highly touted OF prospects in their system. 

James Wood, received in the Soto trade, blossomed through the minors nearly exactly as one would hope culminating in a .353 / .463 / .595 line over 52 games in AAA last year.  He deservedly got the call up earlier in 2024 and while he wasn't an immediate phenom he acquitted himself very nicely finishing the year with a .264 / .354 / .427 line. On a per game basis he was the 2nd best bat for the Nationals*. We must note he did have issues in the field, but not to the levels the Nats are already looking to move him. 

Dylan Crews, drafted #2 overall in 2023, didn't impress like Wood.  He rocked single A for a couple weeks, but initially struggled in AA, improved enough to get a call up to AAA then hit decently there. He got the usual rookie September call-up and looked like a rookie, but at least to start 2025 he should be playing in the OF. His defense looked good, if not the amazing defense promised, and he ran well as a bonus.

Presumed Plan : 

Wood will start in left field.  Crews will start in CF or RF depending.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Wood looked like a major league hitter already. He makes a lot of good hard contact. He runs well as seen on the basepaths so the assumption is he can learn to play a better LF where his instincts looked off. Certainly at 22 you don't want to already resign yourselves to playing him at 1B/DH 

Crews looked like a major league fielder and baserunner, but of course a lot of guys do.  His hitting was a little disappointing, as it has been in the minors, but he'll only be 23 next year and he's just a couple years out of college. It would be nice to give him a little more time in the minors but the Nats really want to see what they can do sooner rather than later, so they aren't waiting on the perfect moment. Crews CAN go now, so he's taking his shot in 2025. 

My Take :  

Wood has basically already proven himself. The question is not really if he will hit in the majors but how well will he hit and at what position will he do it from.  The Nats would rather he play the OF than try to learn 1B or be forced to stick him at DH so he'll get his chances there probably for several years. His skill set suggests he should be good, but I'll remind everyone that said something similar about Juan Soto (though he's not nearly as athletic) that Soto didn't improve much. Chances of Wood being a good fielder are getting slim. The good news is that he doesn't have to be. If he can be average his youth will let him hold down the position for a long while AND the Nats have some very good fielding OFs. If they go something like Young / Crews in the other positions, Wood will be asked to do less. 

As far as the bat goes - he has the power. He just has to get under the ball more. He hit 55% GBs last year which is fine if you are a slap hitter. Wood's legs and just how hard he hits the balls means a lot of hits from those but everyone is hoping he turns more of those singles into doubles and doubles into homers. He does strike out a lot but that's modern baseball. That's something to keep an eye on this year. If teams can exploit that, but it's something to note, not worry about. 

Crews is a bit more of a question. The guy can play CF and can run and so he's got inherent value beyond the plate. That was good in 2024 because he didn't hit very well. Given his brief minor league history you have to wonder if he is going to be special or not. It should be fine if he isn't, but the Nats (and fans) were clearly hoping for special. Of course there is still time for that and some of his peripherals suggest the great hitter is in there.  His contact and eye are both good and he also could hit a lot fewer GBs (56%) which would translate into more power... probably. Crews didn't barrel the ball as you'd like and we're going on a year and a half of "where's the pop" 

It sounds like I'm down but I'm not. Crews is a highly touted prospect developing on a normal pace. He might be great still. He might also still miss, though not in a "terrible never make the majors" sort of way. That the Nats are looking at him in 2025 and it's only a little bit of a stretch is good. He only looks bad in comparison with guys like Wood and Langford, who make it look easy. Compared to most other drafted hitters he's well ahead. That's why he's a highly touted prospect.

I'm not exactly sure why he had to come up when he did. But if their plan is to get a full picture of the state of the team by the end of 2025, I can see it. You'd want Crews to play a bulk of 2025 in the majors. Might as well let him get his feet wet first. And what's the alternative? Another 1 year FA to try to flip?  Garrett and Young and see what happens? Eh.  I can't really complain here.

 Tomorrow starts today. The Nats future is now.

 

*Behind Jesse Winker

Offseason Position Discussion : Third Base

If you are inclined to be angry at the Nats for bad decisions, third base in 2024 provoked you to a near fury.  The Nats went into the season with a two prong strategy (note that this is the perfect number of prongs to stick in a socket and electrocute yourself), third base would be split between "never prospect" Trey Lipscomb based off a minor amount of competence shown in AA with just a bit of surprising pop, and "crashed and burned" former 2nd pick in the draft Nick Senzel who had been given a solid chance by the Reds and hadn't progressed past "bad".

Guess what? This didn't work. In August and September Jose Tena took the position and hit pretty well.  He fielded like crap but based on all reports on him that was an anomaly.  It ended up a real black hole for the Nats after just last year being a pleasant surprise with Jeimer Candelario.

The idea though is that this was a bridge year to the Brady House plan that takes place at some point in 2025. At the end of July that looked like Opening Day but Brady House hit .228 / .261 / .339 the rest of the way making that look unlikely.

Are you ready for another season of the Nats punting?

Presumed Plan : 

Tena holding the position until House is ready.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

With Vargas now gone, Tena should be the super-sub but he's the only one on the team who played 3B last year. That makes him the leader in the clubhouse. As DH/1B are noted issues without an hopeful solution in the minors coming up soon, they deserve more of the FA look.  Tena wasn't bad at the plate and should field so you play him and hope either he comes through or Brady House starts like a House on fire, or both and things just work out. 

They will need to find a back up though. Do they carry Trey Lipscomb for that? Just stick with Andres Chaparro who is a subpar defender? I'm not sure they know and they might be looking for FA to find the answer for them.

My Take : 

This could be trouble.  They really didn't want to be in punt mode again in 2025 but Brady House didn't push through enough to make you want to bring him up and neither of their low-rent fixes surprised. They are now stuck with a minor mid-season trade surprise to try to keep up what he did in 2024 while getting back on track with the glove. This has all the makings of another year of this position being one of the worst in the majors. 

But I don't know what you do since all expectations are that House will be given the chance to take over the position at some point. You either go all in on a solution or you hope like a Jose Iglesias or Donovan Solano falls into your lap for a couple million. Sure those guys might fail to hit againbut it's worth a few million to see. 

There IS an all in solution in Alex Bregman who will demand and get a big long salary as the best option at the position by a good margin. The Nats could do that then let 1B/DH figure itself out and worry about where House goes later - or maybe even trade him off. I don't think that's where I want the Nats to land even if he is the #2 position player available. He's just not the gamechanger the Nats need, imo. This offense doesn't need solid - which is what he is now

Offseason Position Discussion : Shortstop

Shortstop was a wild ride for the Nats in 2024. CJ Abrams started hot, cooled down, then got even hotter.  Halfway through the season he was hitting .286 with 13 homers and 5 triples and he was named an All-Star.  But he cooled down a lot heading into the game and stayed ice cold through August. He was picking things back up in September when he was seen at a casino very late at night and put up a bad game the following day. 

*WARNING I AM GOING TO ASSUME SOME THINGS ABOUT WHAT THE TEAM WAS THINKING HERE*

Rizzo, seeing this as an embarrassment to the team, used it as another teaching lesson and sent Abrams down the rest of the year. 

Overall the position was neutral for the Nats. Abrams did end up hitting well for the season as a whole, his wild positive swings outweighing his wild negative ones. However he still isn't a great shortstop in the field and that truth, at a position where that might matter most, holds his value down. Still "neutral" might have been the best position all season for the Nats, such is where their offense stood in 2024. 

Presumed Plan : 

CJ Abrams with someone backing him up.  Nunez? Tena?

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The good outweighed the bad. 

The position isn't a problem.

To do something with Abrams now that isn't just "let him play and try to figure it out" seems like unnecessarily causing yourself an problem that doesn't currently exist. 

The Nats have other options. Jose Tena was surprisingly good at the plate in a short audition with the team. Nunez looks like he could be a Gold Glover at the position. Brady House looks ready to move to the majors. But at 24, a former top prospect and an All-Star just last year, I can't think of a good reason to abandon the plan that had Abrams as a long term answer somewhere in the Nats infield. 

As for who backs him up... depends on what the Nats value I guess. It seems they didn't want to go with "steady D, poor bat, good veteran presence" which is what Vargas supplied. So it'll be a choice likely between Tena, Nunez, and House, likely in that order as House is more likely up to play 3B full-time, and Nunez is likely in AAA to work on hitting.

My Take :  

Yes, when Abrams is bad he's real bad. In 77 games in May, July and August he hit something like .190 / .255 / .300 with 7 homers.  With subpar defense you are looking at one of the worst players in baseball.

But the possibilities of Abrams are intoxicating. A guy that can hold down SS hitting .300 with power and speed? There's a reason he was a top prospect and over 48 games in April and June he hit something like .330 / .420 / .640 with 11 home runs. 

At 24 it's reasonable to think he can improve a bit, and even if he just settles the high and lows into a 110-120 OPS+ guy that can field SS and provide some excitement on the basepaths and little pop? That's a solid player that solves a tricky position through 2028. 

I do worry that Abrams got on the team's bad side and will go through a Robles like trial of having to prove himself above and beyond what other players have to do. Or worse, they are ready to deal him out for SP help hoping that the mix of other guys internally available will fill the gap. But we don't know that yet and we can't worry about something that might happen. 

Abrams is the SS. He has potential to be great. He should be good overall. Let's just let it play its course in 2025.

Monday Quickie - Walker talk

MLB trade rumors and Mark Zuckerman both have the Nats in the Christian Walker sweepstakes or at least have the idea that the Nats should be in the Walker sweepstakes. You know I agree. Rizzo has already said basically "don't expect anything before the Winter Meetings are done" but things are fluid.  Such is FA baseball time. 

The other "Nats should do this" floated out there was picking up Anthony Santander. Mainly because he has power and the Nats lack power. 

There seems to be some sense that the SP market will be tough this year so that'll be interesting for the Nats, who really should grab someone. 

OK position stuff continues tomorrow

 

No Vargas?

Vargas (and Joey Meneses) hit the FA market.  I am surprised for all the reasons I noted below. 

It's seems pretty good they are moving on.  Likely this means they see Jose Tena as the future utility man as he is a lot younger and has the potential to hit a bit better.  His defense is right now probably comparable to Vargas which actually shows well for Vargas who is 8-9 years older.  I'd expect that he would be worse in his late 20s but that's half a decade away. In the meantime there's really no downside unless you think Vargas' clubhouse presence will be missed a lot.  Joey was also kind of liked from what I could tell so we'll see. Winning makes guys feel a lot better about the clubhouse without clubhouse guys needed. 

Monday Quickie - FA season has begun

Lot's of opt-outs, options declined, etc. Let's go!

For the Nats the main thing that happened was they declined their Joey Gallo option. That was the only option on the table for 2025 and his performances was bad in the off-year Gallo way, which is to say OMG TERRIBLE HIDE YOUR EYES so this is no surprise.  We wish Joey well on whatever team picks him up for peanuts and hops that they can squeeze one last good year out of him

The Nats really don't have to do any funny business now. They have enough 40 man spots open to eat up the IL players that need to be back on. They of course, won't all be on the 40 man at the start of the season but for now they go back on and they'll drip back to the minors as the off-season progresses. Mason Thompson, Cade Cavalli, and Nasim Nunez are easy return to the minors choices as you have to think they start the season there.

It's all looking forward, except for maybe Rule V.  They have to protect Hassell this year which you would expect them to do.

In general the Nats have not been early movers and things don't get going until after the Winter Meetings (Dallas Dec 8-11) so as interested as we are it'll likely be a waiting game until then.   But if you are interested some of the bigger pre-Winter Meetings moves the Nats have made in the Rizzo time frame

• pre-2013 : Traded Alex Meyer for Denard Span. 
• pre-2019 : Ill-fated Trevor Rosenthal signing, not ill-fated Kurt Suzuki signing, Trading for Yan Gomes, Signing Patrick Corbin
• pre-2023 : picked up Jeimer Candelario

 

Funny that their WS year was the only year filled with early moves. 

In other news, Jacob Young did NOT win the Gold Glove he probably deserved (but the winner wasn't a chump) 

Offseason Position Discussion : Second Base

Garcia opened 2024 in a precarious position. After taking a mild step forward in 2022, he did not have a good 2023 at the plate. Toward the end of that year the Nats, as they are wont to do, singled Garcia out as a player to make an example of and unexpectedly dropped him to the minors. If you are thinking I'm misjudging the situation and he deserved it as part of a larger issue with concentration - the idea of him being "sloppy" or "making too many mistakes" just isn't backed up by the data. Don't feel bad, even I bought into some of the spin they were putting out. Turns out though he made real improvements from 2022 to 2023 both on defense and on the basepaths. No, this was a guy simply not hitting who the Nats wanted to hold up as a warning sign to young players. This is what they do.

He did not hit in AAA or at first when brought back up but perhaps the Nats ploy did work in the end because Garcia hit great in the last two weeks of 2023 and better than he ever has in 2024. This includes a scorching July and August where he hit .like .340 with 8 homers. I think most importantly though the Nats didn't try to make him more selective and let him hit. Walk-rate down, K-rate up but a LOT better hitter. His defense continued to improve and he had another solid year baserunning. In no aspects was he great but he was good all around from the start of the season and secured the position for himself for 2025.

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia Jr will man 2B with Vargas backing him up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

After C, 1B, and DH you might think the Nats are in big trouble, but really that's was just a bad starting point for the team. They have several things set pretty well for 2025 and second base is one of them. Garcia Jr isn't one of the best second baseman in the game but he might squeak into the Top 10 and he's most certainly not a problem. We talked about it a little in the start of the off-season. He hit the ball a lot better. At 24 he can still improve so this is a no-brainer. 

The Vargas back-up call is about flexibility. Vargas not only played 2B and 3B but SS and OF when needed. That kind of positional flexibility is very nice to have.

My Take : 

Not much here. Garcia has solidified himself at 2B. It's possible he has an off-year again and the Nats sour on him. They do seem to focus on players in this way. But Garcia has generally looked ok enough that you shouldn't consider him a problem. Last year there was a question if someone would push him from the minors, either Lipscomb/Kieboom straight up or a shifted House. The first two didn't push and House didn't shift. With no one pushing him from the minors he's set. I don't think there will be any disagreement from the rabble.

Vargas is a nice defender.  Best at third but being able to fill in late on D at even SS is a boon for a team who have a bunch of guys that look like they should be good on D but aren't. Plus by all accounts he's a great clubhouse guy. Shame he can't hit at all, but at least he does make contact. Weak, weak contact, but contact.  In terms of issues, "utility infielder could hit better" might rank last on things to fix so while it could become a drag if the Nats suffer any long term injury problems, for right now Vargas makes sense. Worry about fixing this if you are making a title push and want no holes.

Offseason Position Discussion : DH

It's probably more correct to say the Nats didn't have a DH this year. No one started more than 29 games there and 7 guys had at least 14 starts.  DH for the Nats wasn't a position to fill, but a drop off place for guys that weren't playing that day. 

They wanted Meneses to play DH with Gallo at 1B but when that all imploded they tried Senzel the Rosario (this is really a comedy of errors) before settling on Winker. Winker would be traded though and it was mostly Chaparro after that.  However neither Winker or Chaparro, good elsewhere, were good at DH and the Nats ended up with a .205 /.274 / .341 line* from a position in the lineup only there to hit. 

Yikes.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can be had cheap assuming they go in on 1B.  Otherwise the FA signing goes here and 1B is cheap

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The Nats aren't spending money like crazy people. They certainly have shown they will commit money to the team before but they've never been the types to top the league in payroll. They probably** will put out for two big contracts this off-season and stands to reason that they would go with one SP and one 1B/DH and try to solve the rest internally or trades or cheap FA. That's probably the most impactful way to spend on two big contract. 

Since 1B matters more makes sense that would get the deal, but reality might push them to DH if their initial plans don't come to fruition. Unfortunately pure DH players are not easy to find anymore as guys can't hit like they used to. There really isn't an ideal candidate outside of the obvious one that is clearly a primary goal for every team. Juan Soto.

They could go after Juan. He will be very expensive. The Mets and Yankees both are likely willing to pay top dollar along with probably 1 or 2 other teams. Other teams may also be in the mix at first.  The Nats have overpaid (Werth) and been the biggest contract guys (Max) before. However, they seem less confident than they did when they went after Werth and aren't looking for that last piece as it was when they signed Max. They could do it but no one feels very confident they will. Until then, the plan falls to a boring sign a 1B and adding a one-year bounce back deal into the DH mix.

My Take :  

Signing Soto would be the serious move. It makes the offense immediately much better, an offense that is 12th and 14th in RS in the NL the past two years and 15th in homers in both.  Yes it was 13th and 15th respectively in Soto's last year but there are pieces around now that really make it hard to believe Soto won't pull them up closer to average at least. 

But Soto is expensive. 

I wouldn't care. He's a multi-generational hitter with an incredible eye and great power and most importantly he's super young and has been healthy.  You aren't going to get a more sure bet on a player for the next 5 years than on Soto hitting.

But the reality is the Nats may give it an honest try and still lose out. If that happens they need to have a fall back plan and as I've noted 1B has an obvious solution. DH, post Soto does not. They need to honestly gauge their ability to get Soto and if they think they can't get him, move on quick so they aren't left with mediocre choices later in the FA period. 

It is the time for action. The Nats need to be in on players that multiple teams want and they need to be on them quickly.

*Amazingly only 26th in baseball. 

** I mean they got to right?

Where's your pride?

The Yankees won last night (yay!) and oddly enough it was the first time since 1970 a G4 was won by the team down 0-3.  In fact of the 24 times before this year a team has been up 3 games to none, 21 times it ended in a sweep and the other 3 ended in Game 5.  That's pretty crazy when you think about it.These teams are presumably evenly matched. Even if you say "well 3-0 means they aren't evenly matched smart guy!" and you say one team has a 40% chance of winning a game* you'd expect 9-10 Game 5s instead of the three we've seen, around 4 G6s, and 1-2 G7s.  

Now of course teams will lose G4 for the same reasons they could win it, but if you are having 21 teams crash out instead of say 13 some of those teams are just giving up.  So let's see who.  This is my takes from the series I remember watching.

2012 Detroit Tigers. Fighters.  Lost G2 and G3 by 2-0 scores (yes a Bumgarner game was in there) and lost G4 in extra innings. 

2007 Rockies. Fighters in this game only. They put up their best (only) effort of the series in G4 losing by 1 and twice scoring late after the Red Sox scored to expand their lead. 

2005 Astros. Fighters. The fightingist swept losers ever! In every game, would lose the series by a combined 6 runs in 4 games. G4 was 0-0 until the Top of the 8th

2004 Cardinals. Quitters. After being unable to take G1 with 9 runs the Cards packed it in for the series putting up little resistance to the Red Sox of Destiny despite winning 105 games themselves. G4 featured three singles and a lone double

1999 Braves. Quitters.  After being game in the series, Yankees took the wind out of their sails in G3 winning in extras on a Chad Curtis homer. Ouch. Smoltz would try bu the offense packed it in for G4. 

1998 Padres. Fighters. They almost won G1 and G3 holding leads late against maybe the best Yankee team of this stretch. Put 10 men on base in G4 but couldn't bring any home. 

1990 A's. Quitters. The dynasty that never was got beat up by Cincy in G1 and G3. G4 was close but only bc Dave Stewart wasn't going to get embarrassed again as he was in G1. He was great. The A's scored one run in the 1st but that was it for hits and after a 2 out walk in the second made 22 consecutive outs to end the game

1989 Giants. Fighters.  It wasn't to be at all but down 8-0 the Giants valiantly cut it to 8-6 going into the 8th.  It just was too little too late. 

 

From here it's stats only. 

1976 Yankees. Fighters. The Reds would win by 5 but that was bc of a 4 run top of the 9th. Yankees scored first and responded to the Reds scoring 3, just couldn't beat the Big Red Machine

 1966 Dodgers. Quitters in general but I guess fighters in G4. The Dodgers hitters hit .142 for the series with 1 homer. Sure pitching but you know my motto - teams don't win, they lose.  Anyway in the 9th with one out the Dodgers got their 4th single of the game and then drew their second walk but they couldn't bring the tying run home.

1963 Yankees. Fighters? Similar to the 1966 Dodgers, questionable effort during the series but in G4 fought, scoring in the 7th and putting a man on in the 7th after that, a man on in the 8th and 9th. 

1954 Indians Quitters. Mainly the pitcher Bob Lemon who didn't have it and the manager Al Lopez who let him hang out there until he lost it. 

1950 Phillies Quitters. The Whiz Kids. went down without a fight to the Yanks only scoring 2 runs in the top of the 9th thanks to a HBP and a flyball error. 

1939 Reds. Fighters. Teams were at 0-0 until the 7th then it went 2-0, 2-3, 2-4, 4-4.  But in extras the Yankees would score 3 and put it away. 

1938 Cubs Quitters. Hitters seemed game. Pitchers let them get a lead early and gave up runs every time the Cubs tried to mount a comeback. 

1932 Cubs Fighters. Down 1-0 after 1 Cubs made it 4-1 Then down 5-4 in the 6th Cubs tied it up. Yankees run roughshod after that to make in 13-6, but these are some prime Yankee teams. Yankes hit .313 / .412 / .521 as a team for the series

1928 Cardinals. Quitters I guess. This might be the most lop-sided series ever, a title usually taken by some 1960s series with dominant pitching.  The Yankees only trailed after 4 in G4 which they'd put away int he 7th. Won every game by at least 3. If the Cards quit it was starting in G1 not for just G4. 

1927 Pirates. Fighters. Murderer's Row would complete the sweep but not before the Pirates scored 2 in the 7th to tie the game at 3 all. Yanks would walk it off in a wild b9. After a walk and single and wild pitch, Pirates would intentially walk Babe Ruth. After Gerhig and Bob Meusel struck out with the bases loaded and no outs the winning run would come in on the second wild pitch of the inning. 

1922 Yankees. Fighters. Lost G1 and G4 by 1, Led G5 late.  Huh you say? G5?  They tied a game because of gate receipts... I mean darkness!

1914 Philadelphia Athletics. Quitters.  After scoring to tie it up in the 5th the Braves would take the lead right back and Philly wouldn't get another hit the rest of the game. 

1907 Tigers. Bad luck Fighters. Another series with a tie and Mordecai Three Finger Brown dealing for all 9.  Tigers put a man on in seven of nine innings. Got men into scoring position in the 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th but didn't get the hit to drive them in. 

 

*A ridiculously low % in baseball where the worst team in the league against everyone wins like 40% of the time, let alone a league champion.

Monday Quickie - Boone is dumb

I hate Aaron Boone. He's dumb in a modern sense - usually making the analytic choice when such things are figured out in a vacuum and games are managed in the real world. He's also dumb in a traditional sense - usually going for his gut against the traditional move but in a way that doesn't make sense. Sigh.

How was your weekend?

A few Nats are in the AFL.  Hassell is hitting ok so far through a couple weeks. 

uhhh

uhhh

real quiet out there.

Offseason Position Discussion - First Base

The Nats went into 2024 with the hope that either Joey Meneses would blossom or their FA pick-up Joey Gallo would hold down the spot. Neither were being counted on to be long term solutions, more likely trade-bait, but it could have gone in any direction depending on how they performed and what they Nats looked like they needed going forward. When both essentially flunked out of the majors the Nats turned to a organizational depth pick-up Juan Yepez to cover the spot for the rest of the year. He did so admirably hitting well enough that the Nats are at least thinking about where he fits in for next year if they want to look at him some more

Overall the position was one of the Nats' weakest and ripe for improvement.

Presumed Plan : 

A FA signing that can play 1B.  This player may end up at DH instead.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Joey G. will be bought out and Joey M, at 32, had his chance.  These aren't real options. 

Juan Yepez is a poor fielding 1B with little history of success at the plate. Still he's interesting in that he's a rare player that can generate power without sacrificing contact. However what appeared to be potentially special in 2021 has regressed to usable.  He's worth throwing out there again but not as a primary source of production.  Andres Chaparro also spent some time there but he right now would be behind Yepez.

The Nats have a 1B they like ok in the minors in Yohandy Morales, but his AA stay last year almost certainly puts him back in that league for another year. At 22 this isn't an issue, but the Nats can't rely on him coming up and making an impact in the next couple years. 

They could move someone over (Kieboom? Wood?) but there has been neither planning or inklings they are interested in such moves. 

All this says they have the need for a FA at these positions.

My Take : 

 Yep. While James Wood's play suggests his long-term home might be at 1B (or DH) it's way too early to give in just yet, especially with a couple strong defenders along with him in the OF. So a FA makes sense and there's a few decent ones out there. 

Pete Alonso (pure power, no glove, still 30) and Christian Walker (good D, solid bat, 34) will get the biggest deals.  Walker might be ideal for the Nats and would be where I'd look first. If you are scared of the age there's really only one other option 31 yo Ryan O'Hearn who hits like Walker but is more of a DH. If the Nats don't want to commit big money long term Carlos Santana (formerly great, still all around good, but 39) and Paul Goldschmidt (formerly great still ok but bad trends and 37) are out there for short term deals.  If the Nats do something like that I'd hope they are putting money in elsewhere. 

 If they don't want to fight for a 1B the OF class is slightly deeper but you'd have to bet on being able to get someone on a decent deal and that they'd want to play 1B and you'd have to get over the "lefties at 1B" thing.  A Michael Conforto type might be the answer.

Still that seems overly complicated.  The Nats need a 1B there is a good 1B fit available. The Nats have $.  Just sign the best option. If it takes a 4 year deal you are probably stretching his usefulness but given he's good on the field and at the plate has pop, has patience seems like something will hold up.  Although if you are worried his K rate did jump up last year.

I will add the caveat that IF they were to go into the Juan Soto sweepstakes and sign him that gives some leeway to 1B being more of a gamble.  Two former Nats that did well here might be amenable to come back Jesse Winker in the "move position" category and Josh Bell in the "had an off year could be cheap" one.  I wouldn't make either of these Plan A or even Plan B to most other Plan As but if Soto is Plan A then sure, gamble.

Monday Quickie - The Three-Quarter of a Billion Dollar Man

Juan Soto is awesome. 

Juan Soto is very young. 

Juan Soto is about to go from very rich to unfathomably so. Buy an island house to buy an island. 

Juan Soto was really bothered by the events of 2022. That's the truth because I can't otherwise explain how this guy hits .242 for a season. 275? Ok bad year. .242?

Anyway the Yankees and Dodgers in the World Series.  It's the teams that spend the most in the biggest markets so it should draw eyeballs and media interest. Some people hate this. The biggest markets ALWAYS get the eyeballs and media interest. Not all teams have owners that want to (or very rarely "can") spend a ton of money. Take whatever view of it you want to.

Who do Nats fans root for (if they wish to root for anyone)? Probably depends on how you feel about Juan Soto post Nats and the Yankees. Clearly if you hate the Yankees and/or Soto you are probably rooting against them. If the Yankees aren't your least favorite team and you hold no grudges against Soto you probably are rooting at least for him, and thus tangentially for the Yankees.  

If neither of these hold true, things get more wonky.  You may hate the Dodgers a bit more with the Nats running into them in the playoffs a couple times. Although they did beat the Dodgers on the way to the title so how much can you hate a team you are 1-1 against? You may be a "root against any NL team" person or a "root FOR the NL" person. You may love Ohtani. (easy to do)  or Aaron Judge (a bit less likely but he isn't really hateable just bland, but the guy is a physical phenomenon  He's not a lumbering beast. He just a 6'2" guy scaled up by 15%). You could like someone else - probably Mookie, though Stanton is fun as just a "swing big hit ball hard" guy.  Kershaw? OK, everyone has their kinks. You could hate the Dodgers for the go nowhere trade for Ruiz/Gray that sent off Max and Trea. You could be a former Orioles fan still harboring anti-Yankee sentiments*

If you don't want to follow the series that's fine too. Hell you might shut down after the Nats do.

Anyway this kid is excited. 15 years is a long time to wait.

*Though it's fun to think it's been 20 years now of Nationals. Anyone 25-30 or younger are very unlikely to be a "former O's fan" thing unless their parents did the "root for the Os in the AL, Nats in the NL" thing.

Offseason Position Discussion : Catcher

The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher.  Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question.  After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?

Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".

Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one. 

Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case? 

Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly. 

Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.

My Take :  

There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything. 

You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention) 

Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.

I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year.  Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect.  If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs.  To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.     

Monday Quickie - on to the Position recaps

That'll be where we go from here - what we expect the position plans to be in the off-season. While watching and of course rooting for the Yankees to win it all. I assume that's what we are all doing. 

The "how the kids doing" series has to then end. But let's quickly run through the kids we really care about not covered (covered were Wood, Ruiz, Gore, and Abrams)

Luis Garcia Jr. - He had a really good bounce back year. It was pretty simple. He hit the ball better.  Harder, less on the ground. More mistakes then became homers and that was enough.  No seriously. If he hits like last year and say only has 10 homers his BA is pretty much what it was last year.  He's still not walking so he'd be below average again. It's pretty simple, if not easy, for Luis

Dylan Crews - He only played for about a month so grain of salt all this, but I'd call it disappointing but promising. The stats were disappointing for a guy that was supposed to be a natural hitter. But the fielding was good, the baserunning was good, and the hitting was really centered around one issue - not getting the ball up enough.  A 57+% ground ball rate.  He did have enough fly balls so that's why you saw a few homers but that leaves his LD% at an embarrassing 10%.  With his decent eye and his pedigree this seems like it will change. He also pulls too much but you can make that work. You can't make hitting a ton of balls into the infield grass work. 

Jake Irvin / Mitchell Parker / DJ Herz - One important thing to note here I've said before - Irvin ain't really a kid. He'll be 28 before next year starts. 

Irvin is a mediocre pitcher but by cutting down on his walks a bunch this year, he made himself perfectly acceptable as a 4/5. That's all he did. He might have a small improvement left cutting homers but minor league stats say this is Jake. That's fine.

Parker has better stuff than Irvin but he didn't quite find a finishing pitch in the majors. That was probably because he was working on not walking guys. He was a wild K guy in the minors. Things could swing wildly for Mitchell in 2025. He doesn't keep guys on the ground so the HR rate could bounce up. Or he could get wild again. Either of those and he's probably out of the rotation. Or maybe he does figure out how to keep his control and add more Ks to the mix and takes a step up. Or maybe he just stays the same as a 4/5. It was a good year bc he showed he can pitch in the majors. That's really what you wanted to see from a guy like Parker who's at best a middling prospect. But nothing here is guaranteed. 

Herz is the guy you want to focus on. Another Wild K guy in the minors, but wilder and more... uhh... "K"y. He showed he can K guys in the majors with junk and guys don't hit him well. He still walks too many guys and let's guys hit too many balls in the air. So the combination kept him from having a good year but if he can get one of those under control... this guy can be actually good. Unlike Parker his stuff really plays here so there's a lot more potential. However, before you get too high on him there was a real definitive drop in effectiveness when he threw more pitches. after pitch 50 guys started to smack him.  Third time around things got ugly fast. So the question does remain starter or reliever. (or modern dominant 4 inning 5th starter? Need a diff't bullpen for that)  But his stuff should let him have a major league role either way.  This is the most promising thing that surprised for the Nats this year. The introduction of a guy that could be a special starter, or a special reliever. Most likely he won't be but you want a bunch of these types bc they can't all miss.

Lucky or Unlucky : 2024

 Every year we do this - checking in where the team got lucky (or not) and maybe how that factored into this season and following ones.  This isn't to say a player if "lucky" can't continue on the same path, or if "unlucky" will bounce back. It's really just about expectations into this year and how those played out. Reasonably expect a guy to hit .280 with 20 homers and he goes from .310 35 or .250 10. That's what I'm talking about.

 

Lucky 

Before 2024 Trevor Williams recently peaked as a pitcher when the Mets moved him to the pen and he put up a 3.00+ ERA pitching in relief.  As a starter he had one good year back in 2018 but otherwise had been bad at the role for half a decade. Yet, he was Cy Young worthy for the third of a season he was healthy.  Yes, he did get hurt but his value for those 13 starts were well above what he had done in any full season since 2018.

When you throw three young guys with at best mild expectations into your staff the expectation would be one would flame out, if not two.  But Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker, and DJ Herz all performed well enough to hold down spots for the whole year. Like getting three straight scratch-off come up as winners. Only like $5 or $20 but that's still lucky.

Derek Law is a guy in a pen. That sounds like faint praise because it is. He just hasn't been special since his rookie year. In 2023 he had value but the numbers behind it suggested he wouldn't be good. But he was! Better than any year since 2016!

Some bench players will out perform when seen in small doses but Alex Call hitting .343 / .425 / .525  was crazy even if for ~100 PA.

Unlucky 

While last year's mediocrity tempered expectations, there really wasn't any reason to think Keibert Ruiz would continue to regress and become a flat out bad offensive player.

The flip side of Alex Call is Eddie Rosario .186 / .226 / .329 is surprisingly bad after an average 2023.  They caught the last year of his career. It happens. It's bad luck. 

Your #2 and #3 relievers both catching the low end of things (Harvey is having his ERA not match his in a vacuum performance thanks to some untimely balls getting through, Rainey really struggling to come back from injury) is low end bad luck but should be mentioned.

As Expected

Some free agents hit (Winker) some don't (Gallo) some are worth trying into their mid 30s because they are probably still good (Floro) some aren't even under 30 because they are probably never going to be good (Senzel).  Sunrise Sunset.

Young players can vary. Luis Garcia Jr seemed to have this in him. Trey Lipscomb may simply barely be org depth. Wood can come in and pretty much immediately be good. Crews can come in and look like he needs some more experience. Some variation is standard. 

 CJ Abrams had a wild ride but ended up kind of where you thought. Well not in AAA that was not expected but we're talking about season performance. 

Pretty much everyone else. Scour the team and it's hard to find anything unusual. This was the team that was built and it mostly

Similar to last year the Nats weren't trying to be good. Similar to last year the Nats caught more breaks than they didn't. Some BIG breaks pitching wise with Williams and the no downside kids, that lead to a lot of decent innings on the mound and a few wins more than the team was built for. Add in some aggressive baserunning and a bounce or two of game luck and here we are. 

DISsimilar to last year there is expected to be some improvements next year because the talent here is now real major league level talent. How good can Wood be? Will Crews step up next year? Who is CJ Abrams really? Can those young arms keep being decent? Just sticking with what the Nats have isn't a recipe for success. It's a recipe for a couple more wins with a lot of variance. Say expect 73 wins but 81 or 65 being possible. What's going to set expectations is what kind of FA moves they make. Make the right ones and that variation becomes enough to get the Nats into the playoff hunt if things break right for them.  But you have to expect SOMETHING right? Like so mid to upeer 70s is the floor of likely expectations unless like Gore needs TJ and Wood breaks his leg in an off-season ATV accident.

Who to root for - a little late

 Do you base all rooting interests on the Nationals? Would you base your rooting interest in the playoffs on the teams with the most National ties? If so... 

GONE TOO SOON

Braves 

Former Nats pitcher Reynaldo Lopez was a great starter for the Braves but they would shift him to reliever at the end. Mistake? They aren't still playing are they? Also on the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Yuk.  Glad ya lost

Brewers

Joe Ross was on the Brewers as the season ended. He did fine!

Astros

With Dusty gone the most Nationals person with the Astros is GM Dana Brown - who was the director of scouting until Rizzo took over the GM role. How'd he end up GM if his Expos/Nats scouting was... mediocre at best? Time and a stint with the Braves that was actually good.  Player wise it's barren on the post-season roster but Old Friend (tm) Wander Suero is in the org and was on the mound when the AAA team Sugarland clinched the AAA title. 

Orioles 

Daniel Johnson, former Nats draft pick who ended up traded to Cleveland was there. That's it 

STILL IN IT TO WIN IT

Yankees

You may have heard of a little player named Juan Tiberius* Soto. Only one but it's a big one.

Royals

The Royals picked up Hunter Harvey mid season to help with their playoff push. He got hurt very quickly. Other than that no Nats. 

Tigers

No Nats

Guardians

Lane Thomas was traded to Cleveland and was disappointing... until he crushed a bomb to open up the ALDS. 

 

Mets

Jesse Winker, another traded guy, is the obvious one but who could forget long time Nat Reed Garrett (9IP in 2022) finally finding his form for this Mets team?

Phillies

Trea Turner. Bryce Harper. Kyle Schwarber.  I mean this is basically the Nats team that could have been.

Padres

What happened on August 8th, 2024? That's when Carl Edwards Jr threw his one inning of major league work this year.

Dodgers

Blake Treinen and his talent at pitching good and somehow seeming bad is playing his fourth season for the Dodgers. Daniel Hudson, at Dodger before he was a Nat, has been in LA since 2022 and actually pitched a full season this year! (he was ok). Ever the resourceful team they've made use of a Nats' castoff. Anthony Banda, who has made an incredible journey in his career**, including a stop in DC last year, found himself at home in the LA bullpen.

If seeing former Nats makes you happy, you are rooting for a Phillies Yankees World Series

If it makes you sad, you are rooting for Padres facing either the Tigers or Royals.

*May not be his actual middle name 

** drafted by the Dbacks, refused, drafted by Milwuakee, traded to Arizona, made his debut with Arizona in 2017 then traded to Tampa (2018-2020), DFA'd and traded to SFG for cash (minors only 2021), traded to Mets (2021), DFA's then grabbed by Pittsburgh off waivers (2021-2022), DFA'd then traded to TOR for cash (2022), DFA'd, rejected assignment, signed with Mariners (minors only 2022), opted out, signed with Yankees (2022), DFA'd went to minors, elected FA, signed with Nationals (2023) in off season.  DFA'd spent season in minors. Elected FA, signed with Cleveland (minors only 2024), traded to Dodgers

Pete Rose - dead

I'd say RIP but that guy doesn't really deserve to rest in peace. 

Pete Rose ended his career with 4256 hits.  That's about 70 more than #2 Ty Cobb but almost 500 more (getting close to 15%) more than #3 (Hank Aaron if you didn't know). That's a lot of hits.  A couple of guys in the last 20 years have gotten within a 1000 hits.  Albert Pujols (3384) was close until age 34, and in fighting range until 37 but petered out like most players would as he hit his late 30s.  Derek Jeter (3465) was only about 70 behind at age 38, and was beginning to have a serious case for reaching 4000 if not passing Rose, but an serious injury in the playoffs in 2012 left him nothing but a "prove I can still play" comeback season before retirement. 

So how does one become the Hit King? It's simple, but it's not easy. 

Start early and play for a long time: Rose's first season was at 22, not ideal but early enough. He'd play for 24 seasons. 

Stay Healthy : Pete Rose played at least 150 games in 19 of his first 24 seasons, and in one of those he was healthy baseball was just on strike. He played the most games of anyone in baseball history.

Bat Early in the lineup: If you leadoff you will have over a season about 35 more PA than if you bat 3rd, about 70 more than if you bat 5th. The first number is extra season over the course of a 20 year career, or like an extra 200 hits. Rose batted leadoff in about 2/3 of his games, about 1/4 in 2nd and nearly all the rest in the 3rd slot. He had the most PA than anyone in baseball history by almost 2000.

Hit well : all those PA don't matter if you are a scrub. Rose hit .303 for his career, and .315 over a SEVENTEEN year stretch. He averaged 206 hits a season from 1968 through 1979

Don't walk too much: Rose could take a walk when he wanted but preferred to hit, and his walk rate was around 9-10% during much of his career.  So despite crushing the competition in plate appearances. He was a modest 14th in walks for a career. 

Surprise a little at the end : When you get old teams generally are fine getting rid of you after a bad year or two. That means two bad seasons after like 36 can pretty much end your career if you aren't tied to a contract. Pete had his first real off year at age 39 in Philly (his first below average year at the plate since he was 23) and could have been set up for a drop in playing time but he bounced back to hit .325 in the strike year.  He was again off in '82 at 41 and flat out bad in '83.  

Get close to a record : That would have probably been the end but he was at 3990 hits at the end of 1983.  Montreal signed him mostly to get the 4000 hit bump and when they got that and his bounce back was more of a barely noticeable rise they traded him to the Reds to finish his career. The Reds would give him his chance to get to Ty Cobb. Rose would rise as much as he could to the occasion. In his month with the Reds in '84 he hit .365(!) and in the following year he began focusing on walks. Despite hitting .265 with his power long gone he managed to have an average offensive year because his OBP was nearly .400. Not great for a 1B but for a guy chasing a record for a middling team it was ok

Refuse to quit : The one thing I'll admire Rose for, which I admire in any player. Refusing to walk away when it's clear you aren't the same player you were, refusing to step aside until the game is ripped from you is a quality one needs to achieve the highest numbers. While I don't care about the chase I do say play until you can't because you aren't getting another chance. Pete did that. While his modest homer power died early around age 31, he was still a doubles machine until age 40. But in that second off year in 1982 it was clear he was just a singles hitter who couldn't play the field. Some guys let pride or shame screw with them. Rose definitely did not feel shame

 

Is there anyone close to Pete now? Manny Machado thanks to a career starting at age 19 is in range but isn't the high average hitter Pete was so will slip further behind even if he plays to 40. Same generally goes for Bogaerts, Bryce and Betts, all in the general area but not healthy and/or not high average hitters. Luis Arraez is probably the best prototypical singles hitter but got a late start so basically can't afford an off year if he's to keep pace.  

There are three interesting possibilities - as much as anyone can be for such a ridiculous target. Ronald Acuna has 815 hits at age 26 (Rose 899) thanks to a two year head start. He's show he CAN hit for high average (.337 last year) but is extremely injury prone you can't see him getting those PA he needs. Vladdy Jr. also had a two year head start and is well ahead of 25yo Rose at the moment 905 hits to 723 hits. He's also been very healthy playing nearly every game now for 5 straight seasons. But while he can hit for average he bounces around as likely to hit .270 as .310.  No the best option is the obvious one. Or let's say the obvious JUAN

Juan Soto had  a three season head start and has 934 hits putting him over a full season better than Rose at the same age. While Soto has had off years no one doubts he could hit over .300... if that was his goal. But Juan also has real power which both lends himself to hitting lower in lineups and lends him to "settle" for hitting like .285 with 40 homers instead of .325 with 25. He makes that up by leaning into something Rose leaned away from, taking walks. While it would be interesting what would happen if baseball told Soto to go for the record, it's likely bringing in more value by smashing homers and getting on base will drop him behind Pete by age 30.

Monday Quickie - The more things stay the same, the more things change

The Nats season is over. They finished 71-91 which is the same record they had last year, but while the numbers are the same, forward progress was clearly made. Last year, they were arguably a low 60s win team by various measures that somehow found itself over 70. This year they were the low 70s win team that they ended up as.

Results like 2023, where the W/L don't match the stats can be caused by "coin flip luck". You happen to get a few more dribblers through with men on base. The opponent hits a few more fly balls to the deepest part of the park. Results like 2024 can also be caused by luck though. Several players finding themselves having years that might be the best of their career, or that one late career bounce back, all at the same time gets you deserved wins but wins you can't count on continuing on*. Trevor Williams pitching like a Cy Young contender for 1/3 of the season can only be described as shocking, but nothing else felt out of order. Rather it felt like the Nats having one of those season where more works out than doesn't and when it's mostly with kids rather than vets beating expectations, you can't dismiss that. Maybe you also can't count on it, but you can certainly get interested in what the future can hold. 

Offensively this season was quietly a bit worse. The Nats made a few bets on veteran bats, some good some inexplicable (hey it's Nick Senzel's music! Which, by the way, is a sad trombone). Like Candelario last year, one really paid off in Jesse Winker. You had a couple guys do well last year it was Thomas and Garrett this year Wood and Garcia Jr. But whereas last year the rest of the lineup was mostly guys below average with one or two stinkers, this year the Nats had a lot of the latter. Last year only Alex Call got more than 200 PA (439) and put up a OPS+ under 85. This year Keibert Ruiz did it (485), Joey Meneses did it (313), Vargas (303), Gallo (260), Rosario (235), and Lipscomb (211).  That's a lot of stink!

But you can certainly argue that outside of Ruiz none of these results were all that important, and while Thomas and Garrett doing well last year was nice, Wood and Garcia Jr doing well this year was important. So the offense was worse but in a way you feel better about where it can go. 

On the mound the Nats improved across the board. Last year the pen was a solid three guys and then a bunch of terrible choices. This year their FA signings worked out well and they watched as almost a full pen of guys threw... well mostly just ok. But a 4.50 ERA is world's better than a 6.50 ERA. All in all this helped elevate the Nats from "really bad after the top" to "below average mix". That kind of improvement matters but probably only would have balanced the lack of hitting by itself. 

No the huge difference was in the starting pitching.  The Nats were bad last year with a lot of bad starters being bad. This year they were still not good but resembled the "rest of the lineup" from the 2023 Nats. A lot of below average guys being below average. Irvin, Parker, and Herz didn't have good results, but they were good enough to keep the team in the game and that slight difference was big enough to matter. And much like with Wood and Garcia, the fact that it was two younger pitchers doing that in Parker and Herz makes you think maybe the Nats can get lucky and one will make the next step. 

We'd be remiss if we didn't talk about the baserunning. The Nats lead the majors in SB and while their success rate dropped it still managed to be around 75% which is about what it needs to be to be a positive. Add in the general disruptiveness of that game plan and it's another new plus.

Defense? They were worse. You might think Jacob Young would have made an impact but him and Call (another excellent fielder) only played like 16% more innings this year. Meanwhile you lost all of Candelario's contribution at 3B and he was very good. While Garcia looks better guys like Abrams and Thomas took big steps back from already not great positions. This is one place for concern moving forward as while Crews does appear to be good, Wood does not. The defense will likely be bad with a couple of bright spots, rather than the preferred, good covering a couple of holes. 

But look at the scoreboard and see how much that matters. The defense didn't stop the Nats from being much better and that will likely be the case again next year. Of course now we get to the main point.

The Nats season wasn't good in a vacuum but it was good for the future. You have the pieces for the potential next run either here (Ruiz, Garcia, Abrams, Wood, Crews, maybe Young or one of the late season guys, Gore, Brzykcy, maybe Irvin, Parker, Herz or Ferrar) or coming soon (House, Yohandy, Lara, Grissom Jr, maybe Lile). The team is ready to try to make the next step. But the next step is big. 

The Phillies, Braves and Mets may be at various stages of their competitive cycles but the simple truth is in 2024 they were all at least 15 games better than the Nats and it wasn't by luck. They are that much better. The Braves and the Mets are the teams fighting for the playoffs. That's the first goal line. High 80s in wins.

If the Nats want to simply get better they can probably follow a similar plan to this year with maybe grabbing a more reliable FA SP to at least take up an inning eating role. Do that, watch the kids improve (or not) and come up (or not) and probably win 5+ more games. But that's only 75-80 wins, still a good bit from the playoffs. No, if they want to feel like they are really making a push they need to be serious actors in the FA market. They have been before, so we can have some hope, but times change. Already they have started this run differently by not grabbing that Werth-like big FA in assumption that the team would come together. What else might be different? 

2024 was not exactly what you wanted as a Nats fan but it was probably what you could reasonably expect a positive year to be. You didn't have a lucky run to .500, the Nats weren't really ever playoff relevant, beginning their slide well in advance of when playoff spots are thought about, and they didn't have a breakout star. But more happened good than bad and the kids got to the majors on time. The team became a team you could watch and expect a competitive, if not exactly winning, baseball game. 

Now what you can reasonably expect for 2025 in my mind, is a couple big FA signings and a team that looks like a good bet for .500 while it watches the kids and figures out where the last couple pieces need to be to make the playoffs. Will we get that? Let's find out.

 

*Wanted to note with Zaidi out in SF this is EXACTLY how SF won 107 games a few years ago. Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Alex Wood had their last good seasons. Belt, Crawford, Ruf, Duggar, Gausman, and DeScalfini all had their best years ever (ok best 2year block for Belt).   No one basically underperformed. It was what happens when EVERYTHING goes right for a team that should win like 80-85 games. All those +1 WARs add up into something crazy.

How are the Kids doing #3 - MacKenzie Gore

The short take on Gore's 2024 is that he got better but didn't become the ace the Nats hoped for. But probably most importantly he was healthy the whole year completing over 30 starts, something not given based on Gore's injury history. If this is all he is - a solid dependable #3 type - then that is enough, though the potential remains for more. 

The big difference between this year and last was a return to a more balanced repertoire. Gore kind of gave up on his change last year focusing more on his swing and miss pitches and control of those.  The result was an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks, as hoped but also an increase in home runs. Guys could guess what he'd throw. They didn't guess right often and his stuff was still good - his hard hit % stayed about the same- but when they were right they punished him.  This year he incorporated more changeups and the results were notable. A big drop in hard hit%, a big drop in homers, a big drop in barrels. Opponents were more off balance. Yes adding back in a pitch they didn't swing and miss much at meant they put the ball in play more and that means more hits but he was able to maintain his control. The control of power with roughly the same K and BB rate meant a better pitcher.

Where can Gore improve to take the next step? It's making a jump forward in control. Although he managed to improve his control last year, it was only from "this cannot continue" to "one of the wildest starters in the game". Maintaining that for this year was important, while adding back in his change, but if he's going to be a top of the rotation type he's going to have to cut it way down, by like half a walk a game or more. And it's a balancing act. If having more control means giving up more homers there a point where it won't be worth it. 

I'm not exactly sure he can make this step.  While the HR bump in 2023 was an aberration, he'd pretty much always kept the ball in the park, the walk issue has dogged him for a while. Simply having strong stuff kept it down in the very low minors. Guys would chase more. But that isn't the case now. Without a sense that the control can come I don't know if it's something we should expect. 

On the positive side though he really should be getting slightly better results this year and his ERA should be just on the other side of 4.00 as opposed to the higher end. 

As Gore is hitting 26 there's limited time for real improvement. One of the least talked about truths in sport is you generally show what you are very quickly. Gore's improvement shows importantly that he's able to put together the best version of what he is, but 2024 might be it. 

I'd say personally I'm satisfied with Gore. There is a LOT of value in a good healthy #3 type. Sure, I want him to be an ace, but that's probably not going to happen. I'd bet against it. What I'd now hope for is for him to continue to improve. Moving from a 4.00 ERA type to a 3.50+ ERA type that he should be able to do with some minor changes and better luck.  That's more of a solid if not exciting #2 and the type that can give the rotation stability. 

Gore won't be a kid after this year but how did the kid do? Pretty good. 

Things you should watch

While waiting for me to get less busy so I can do a couple more "How 'dem kids doing"

Right now in the AL the divisions are all but set. There's a "Yankees lose all, Orioles win all" scenario still in play but that's about it. Same thing for a bye between the Guardians and Astros*. It's all about the Wild Card where the Royals and Tigers are fending off the Twins and Mariners (we'll bring up the Red Sox Friday if they still matter) for the final two spots

Mariners @ Astros (afternoon game today)

Rays @ Tigers 

Royals @ Nats- Hey the Nats matter!

Marlins @ Twins

In the NL The NL West is still up for grabs and the Padres are making their last play. Basically needing the sweep they started off with the win. The Phillies are pretty much set as 1 or 2 though, and Brewers as 3. So the rest is the Wild Card where the Mets, Dbacks, and Braves are struggling over their last two spots

Padres @ Dodgers (late night baseball!) 

Mets @ Braves

Giants @ Dbacks

This weekend the Padres go to Arizona and the Royals finish in Atlanta for two series that are good bet to have some intrigue. The rest - Tigers are hosting the White Sox, Dodgers are at the Rockies, Mets in Milwuakee, Baltimore at Minnesota, and the Mariners host Oakland. 

Baseball really does have an advantage here over other sports with this end of the year lots of games that could matter thing that happens. It's fun!  

Player-wise not much. Ohtani got to 50/50 already.  Judge could hit 60 but isn't going to blow by it. FWIW - Judge and Ohtani will be the only ones to get to 50, Santander is next at 44.  Soto got to 40 for the first time in his career.  Kind of crazy though that we are in a world now where homers rule batting average and only 8 or so guys will hit over .300, but Judge is definitely going to be one and Ohtani might be another. Even if he hits like .295 he did steal 50 bases. These guys are so good. Also Bobby Witt (only 32 homers) is going to have one of the best non-MVP seasons in a while.

There will be no 20 game winner this year.  Both Skubal and Sale have a chance to get to 19. This could be the first season ever where no one tops 210 IP in the major leagues. A couple guys should (only need 5 1/3 but just a couple guys have a shot).  This is all just a past decade change. The four man rotation died in the 70s as did the "Everyone goes as long as they can" with the advent of closers. By the mid 80s things settled around 250-275 IP with a few outliers. That mostly held for 20 years then in the mid 2000s we saw another drop, presumably for 7th and 8th inning guys coming in. Innings stuck around 225-250 until about a decade ago when we started getting the "no third time around" rule coming in.  

What is this all for? Do pitchers dominate? Nope. Do we have fewer injuries? Doesn't seem like it. I guess a team would have an advantage if everyone else wasn't also doing it. And injuries are a set cost so we accept X many and scale the effort in each pitch to that injury level. Seems pointless to me. 

Again my re-framing of the SP role is that if you are only going to ask 5-6 innings of them, we should go back to 4 man rotations. There's never been a real indication that INNINGS matter, as opposed to pitches per start. Anyway watch some baseball

*Also I don't care about HFA through the playoffs.  Things happen.

Monday Quickie - Nats lose a bunch, Abrams demoted

 Since taking care of the Marlins and looking like shoo-ins for a lot of their seasons goals (ok MY season goals) the Nats have collapsed, losing 6 of 7. This all fits in with their general season feeling - good enough that they are not bad, bad enough they are not good. . The Nats cruise with a 32-22 record against teams under .500. This is a record you'd expect from teams around .500. They stall out with a 37-65 record against teams over .500.  This is a record you'd expect from the worst teams in baseball. 

What explains the discrepency? Is their talent level walking that much of a tightrope? Or is it random luck?  Eiether way with KC and PHI to finish the season that doesn't bode well for passing 2023. 

But of course the losses weren't the story of the weekend, it was CJ Abrams' demotion.  He had been struggling but no one is under any misconceptions that that might be the cause. The team didn't even try to suggest it. No, while it wasn't explicitly stated Abrams was punished for being out too late (8AM?) the night before a day game. 

If you are a vet you are given leeway because the idea is you understand what you need and don't need to perform. If you are performing you are given leeway because who really cares what you do if you produce on the field. But Abrams wasn't producing and isn't a vet. He gets the hammer. 

The Nats would have had a hard time suspending Abrams, especially if they didn't have any explicit rules set up which appears to be the case. But demotion seems like a bit much. Sit the guy for a series. 

They are probably thinking "oh it worked for Luis Garcia" and maybe it did but then again maybe Luis was having an off-start to his 2023?  And they sent Luis down to play, to work on things.  Even if it didn't seem like it in the stats, he might have actually done that. Abrams is just getting his nose rubbed in it. More importantly, as any parent or coach can tell you, what works in one case, at one age, in one situation, may not work in another. You have to be careful how you go about things each time and this was not the Nats being careful. 

The Nats play a weird "we're the boss" game at times. That doesn't work for everyone. Victor Robles may be blossoming outside the Nats.  Whether it works for Abrams we're just going to have to see, but directly going to "send him back to AAA" isn't where I'd have gone. That's something to build to and there isn't any indication that that is what happened here. Weaker still was Rizzo making this decision and not offering himself up for questions. Rizzo loves to be the man making the calls, he's lukewarm on being the one to take the heat for them. 

 If the Nats can win a few here there will be something else to talk about but otherwise this may be the going away impression of the season. That would be a shame both because the season was good, and a because it sets up a potential problem for next year for a team that wants to be all sunshine and lollipops going into 2025.

I come here to bury Corbin

Corbin pitched his second to last game in a Nationals uniform yesterday. Like many, many, MANY of those games he lost. He stinks. Get him out of here. 

I don't blame the Nats for Corbin being here in the first place. He probably was the best starting pitcher available that year. The contract was high but they probably had to go high to get him. That's what happens with best available guys. Yes in retrospect it feels like it was probably a year longer than it needed to be but we don't really have the knowledge of what was out there. Some thought he'd be great (not me), some thought he'd be good (me), few thought he'd tank (did anyone? If so, I'd like to see the proof).  It made sense. 

What didn't make sense is continually throwing him out there after it became clear he wasn't the same pitcher anymore. A very good 2019 season devolved into a bad short 2020, then a terrible 2021, and 2022, AND 2023 AAANNNNDDD 2024. In 2021 you could be hoping for a turnaround, in a year you expected to maybe compete. In 2022 you could be hoping to still get value from a long contract. In 2023 and beyond there really wasn't a reason to throw him out there other than to eat innings to protect young arms and the Nats didn't have any young arms to protect. (or a manager that would know how to do this either). He should have been gone going into 2023 let alone 2024. 

Of course I don't blame him for staying. Even with players I don't like I still say stay in the game as long as you can because you aren't getting another chance later. And if you are getting paid like a king to do it? No-brainer.  

For those that want to give Corbin a nod for 2019...  you are free to but note that being on that team doesn't mean he was integral.  Oh he was very good in the regular season. I've admitted that. But the Nats also cleared hosting the Wild Card by 4 games. Was he 4 games better than another pitcher? That's a big jump. 

His playoff record isn't as good as some remember. 

In the NLDS he did well in game 1, wild but avoided the big hit. They lost but it wasn't on him. This is unlike G3 where he came in to help relieve Anibal Sanchez and got immediately pounded into dust basically taking away any chance the Nats had to win. But he finished off his NLDS time trying relief again. This time in G5 and he held the dejected Dodgers down for an inning after Kershaw did his "Kershaw in the playoffs" thing. 

In the NLCS he started G4 and was the only pitcher on the Nats not to dominate the Cardinals. Seriously. His series ERA? 6.75. Next was Doolittle at 2.25. Then no one else gave up an earned run. Of course the Nats opened the game with 7 runs and had a 3-0 series lead so no one cared.

In the World Series he pitched an inning in G1 that was work but did the job. Then he started G4 and lost. He might have been chased in the first if Robinson Chirinos didn't bail him out. It was already 2-0 and he just walked the bases loaded but Chirinos swung at a ball to start then swung again at not his pitch up 2-1. Later Corbin would make it up to him by serving him a meatball for a homer. It was a lousy showing that tied the series back up. Corbin would come back though in G7 in his best performance of the playoffs to pitch well for three innings while the Nats clawed their way back.

Those innings ended up being his lasting impression for a lot of people, but it was really an up and down playoffs though and one that he could have been a goat for his NLDS start or for his WS start.

 He's not the worst pitcher the Nats have had. They've had a lot of bad pitchers. But he's the worst that they sunk more than a couple seasons of starts into. Like of those starters with more than 30 starts he's 7th worst (out of 31) in HR/9, 5th in H/9, 13th in FIP. But looking at those with more than 70 starts he's worst in H/9, 3rd worst in HR/9 (Gray and Fedde if you must know), 3rd worst in FIP. And that's including 2019 which is 200IP of Cy Young vote getting pitching. 

The takeaway from Corbin's career is that Corbin came and threw innings and they won a World Series and he was a small part of that because he was good. Then he stayed and threw more innings and got paid and lost and hurt the team for the next 5 years because he was bad. It's only a fair tradeoff if you think they couldn't have won without him, something unknowable really.

There isn't much more to say I guess. He's been an anchor on the team for 5 seasons. They are better off without him. If you want to tip your cap because he helped the Nats easily take the Wild Card slot or because his variable playoff performance ended with a high at the most important time, that's up to you. My cap is staying on my head.

How are the kids doing #3 - CJ Abrams

Abrams has shown the Nats his promise this year, but also has given fans a dose of the current reality.  Abrams has the talent to be a star, but a lot of players do (see : Green, Elijah) It takes something more than raw talent to make it and Abrams has yet to translate that. 

This year Abrams was one of the better SS in baseball for the first half. A BLISTERING June (.374 / .464 /  .663) helped secure an All-Star bid but since then he's been flat out bad.  And before you say "well he's been hurt" no he hasn't the entire year and how does that explain a May that was worse than any of the recent bad months? No, it just appears that Abrams could be an extreme streak hitter. When he's hot he's as good as anyone. When he's not he's pretty terrible. 

Ok but let's just say that's random luck this year. What if we took the year as a whole, what do we see? In general it's good news. He increased his power. Some of this was hitting balls a little bit harder and a few more in the air. Mostly though it was pulling the ball a lot more. His power is mostly to right center. While doing this did bump up his K-Rate a touch, he also increased his walk rate. With a BABIP almost exactly like last year the read is he's simply a slightly better hitter than last year. Most of the fancy stats agree. 

For those of you wanting stardom that's a bit of a disappointment. There was no big step forward, just a half-step shuffle from slightly below average to slightly above. He's still sporting a .240 average. He still doesn't hit the ball that well. He still relies on the legs to get a couple more singles to pump the average or leg out a few more doubles to help the power. He's still young so more improvement is possible but the rate is slow enough that you'd imagine topping out at 26/27 hitting like .250 / .320 / .460  with 28 homers. Perfectly good bat but not one that's carrying the team. 

Of course again this is "if the year is taken as a whole" if you prefer to look at April and June as the potential then what did he do there? One thing obvious is his LD% is WAY down. He was hitting like 25% in the first half and under 10% in the second half. He's also pumped up his FB% way higher. He's also not pulling the ball as much. If that's a choice he should mostly stop it. Pulling the ball and hitting his fair share of LD is where he found the most success. Of course counter examples are there. He hit line drives in May, pulled the ball in July. And if you look at April and June why aren't you looking at May, July, August and September? If you accept the highs as possible, you have to accept the lows too. That's why I lean more into "take the season as a whole". Less variable. A prediction is possible other than a shoulder shrug

Injuries? That's probably a better thing to hang your hat on than random hot months. If he were healthy he'd likely be hitting better. If he were hitting better the improvement would be more pronounced. If the improvement was more pronounced you could see a way that he improves like this every year to a star level. If he avoids more injuries. 

 We're spending a lot of time on the hitting because the fielding and running are cut and dried. He's a fast runner and if the Nats can help him be more judicious with his base stealing he'd be an extremely positive player on the basepaths. His fielding is very bad this year and even in the "take 3 years to get a feel" he's still a bad fielder. Three years in and the obvious answer is CJ Abrams should not be your shortstop.  Where does he go? There really isn't room in the OF. 3B is probably the answer (he does have a strong arm) though you'd have to re-train Brady House for SS and hope he's good. But it's a question that's not going to go away. You can work on it. You can get better positioned (maybe - they do a pretty good job of it now) but having this as a starting point is really pretty bad. 

Abrams is a player who needs to find his place but the effort should be made. At worst he's likely to be a decent bat without an obvious home. Given the DH issues across the major leagues he could probably land there and be fine. What's wrong with a guy with wheels and a little pop OPS+ing 125 from your DH spot? Nothing.  At best he's an All-Star here and there who is manning... somewhere. 

The good news is 2024 suggests Abrams is playable for the long haul. The bad news it's not at SS and  he's probably more a piece you use to build around someone else than build around him himself. But hey! You need all these types. If you can find a spot where Abrams is like your 4th or 5th best bat you are probably in a really good spot. And if he's a boom/bust player that's fine too. A lot of guys bust who don't have boom potential. You need guys to boom. The fact Abrams could is enough reason to include him in your future plans.