The Nats had a long-term plan at catcher. Ruiz's performance over the past couple years have called that plan into serious question. After being signed long-term Ruiz put up one of the worst statistical defensive years we've seen at C in a while (for whatever that is worth) and this year he was well below average at the plate. Does anything now change because of it?
Presumed Plan :
Ruiz with Millas and/or Adams as back-up.
Reasoning behind Presumed Plan :
Ruiz has that contract. He'll get every opportunity to bounce back and starting 2025 as the presumed #1 catcther might just be "every opportunity".
Adams and Millas are who is here and ready. If you aren't going to replace Ruiz this is what you go with. But they each have issues so you can't rely on a single one.
Adams is seen as a poor fielder. Previously it was thought he could platoon well with Ruiz bc he mashed lefties, but Adams crashed against them this year. If he's not a good fielder and not a good hitter against the pitchers Ruiz stuggles against, what is his use case?
Drew Millas hit well in the minors again - this time in AAA, but that didn't translate into major league success. It was only a month so you can't really say anything for sure but as a 27 year old with no real prospect status it helps if you prove things right quickly.
Makes sense in this case that you start with Ruiz at C, if he falters you swap in Millas for an extended look (Ruiz down to AAA to get right?) and Adams sticks around as a back-up / 3rd option depending on what's being done with these guys.
My Take :
There's a lot of ways forward. You can just commit to Ruiz. He starts. He plays. You deal with it for at least a couple more years. If this is the case I'd jettison Adams and Millas and bring in a veteran catcher who can work with Ruiz on... well everything.
You can follow the presumed plan hoping to hit on Ruiz or Millas in 2025 so you don't need to make a move (and then making a move in the off-season if you didn't hit on either, they both failed badly, and the Nats are closing in on contention)
Or you can make that move now. You might be able to get Alejandro Kirk (FA after 2026) for something or maybe Wilson Contreras if St Louis is rebuilding (gotta eat a lot of $ though). If you don't want to trade because the return isn't great, there isn't really a good FA catcher this year. Higashioka who will be 35, d'Arnaud who's always an injury gamble, Danny Jansen is you want to take a gamble on this was an off -year. If you think a rental might be cheaper the best one next year is Realmuto who isn't going to be traded and certainly not inter-division.
I think the Nats have enough issues left to solve and are not quite in contention so they can let this go one more year. Whether that means way 1 or 2 is up to how you feel about Keibert and Drew. I lean toward 1 just because the guy can make contact, and I like guys that make contact. I feel like you can make that work. I think last year's D was an aberration and while he may not be good he isn't immediately an issue that needs to be replaced. I also like the fact he's younger so him getting better seems more reasonable to me than Drew. I don't see the point of moving from hoping things pan out with this better once prospect to hoping things pan out with this older non-prospect. If Millas wants the job, he'll get ABs. To me, he'll need to force the issue if he wants a trial.
5 comments:
Interestingly, Ruiz’s defense was significantly better this season. Not GOOD, mind you, but improved enough to go from “horrifically awful” to pretty much average. He makes a decent number of plays and his framing has improved to just slightly below average. His pop time still stinks, but despite that his CS% (20%) is close to league average (21%). If he could hit like last season and his defense holds here, he’d be a perfectly cromulent catcher and his contract would be a bargain.
Mostly agree with Harper's takes here. One complication, though, is that both Adams and Ruiz are out of options. So Ruiz isn't going to get a AAA stint to work on stuff, even if it would help, and Adams may hold on to C2 just because there's literally no depth beyond him and Millas. Maybe Maxwell Romero would be next up? Yikes. I'm not convinced Adams would get claimed, but I could see Rizzo choosing not to risk it if he can't lock up a plausible C3 option via MLFA.
And I want to second John C's framing as well -- Ruiz has had 3 years in DC. In two of them, he hit fine. In two of them, he fielded fine. And if/when he's fine on both sides of the ball, he's a 1.5 WAR catcher who is a bargain at $6M a year. For 2025, I think we just hope that he puts it together. Next offseason, we can reevaluate.
I do try to get Ruiz a bit more rest, though. Maybe 100 games, and 60 for Millas. And no more of squeezing his bat in as DH. Even in his better years, his bat is below league average. Surely someone else on the bench should be taking those PAs.
Hits like 2023 + fields like 2024 = perfectly acceptable receiver at a small value
Fields like 2023 + hits like 2024 = worst catcher in baseball
Yes - with no options Ruiz would be set here.
One thing I didn't mention was Bazzell who looked good last year. Ok just a couple months but hey maybe he'll be a phenom
Mostly agree here, except that I'm ready to cut bait on Adams. He doesn't field well, wasn't expected/predicted to field well, and doesn't hit well enough to let you overlook that. Ruiz has flashed on both offense and defense (just not at once) and Millas has been a decent fielder, which he was expected to be. I'm not sure about bringing in a veteran backup, but an actual catching coach to work with Ruiz might be a thought.
Otherwise, like Harper says, not only do the Nats have more serious problems, but there's a lack of meaningful solutions on the market at C, making "stick with what they have; spend resources elsewhere" the best solution.
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