The Nats were no-hit yesterday completing the Padres sweep in the "never know what Nats team is going to show up" season. They aren't good but are we going to get .500ish Nats or terrible Nats? Seriously though - it's time to stop thinking about the Nats as any sort of competitor if you are. Not this year. It's over.
Something worrying is the Nats hitting or lack thereof. 5 shutouts in the past 30 days. They've been consistently bad and we have to see how they address it.
What are the problems?
Catcher - a tough one because Ruiz is under contract for a while and the alternatives aren't much better.
First base - don't have one unless Yepez is real deal but don't believe that anymore than Wood can't hack it here.
Outfield - can probably make do with Thomas for a couple more years but he's more likely to be a liability than a help with his average bat and below average fielding aging.
DH - don't have one
What are the not problems?
Second base - Garcia look to be a reliable average bat if not more
Shortstop - Abrams could be a star. Probably shouldn't be at short but don't worry about that now unless you know where to put him
What are the expected kids?
Third base - House
Outfield - Wood and Crews.
A playoff run is not made from 3 question marks, as good as they might be there's a question both of how good and how fast, and two above average bats. There are ways this can go better of course. ROY candidates and Superstar Abrams is an optimist's guess. But really they need bats. Arms? Yeah probably too but you can hold onto the first half of 2024 hope that 3 are set at least for right now. Get me bats.
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Makes sense. And I guess that’s good news, insofar as I assume getting bats is easier than getting (starting) arms, which is what we assumed they needed at the beginning of the year. I imagine they can get a 1B and a DH for not that much. A few pen arms and a starter, and they could have a chance next year.
P.S. It will be interesting to see if Corbin can keep his pitching up for the rest of the season. His value is not there from a contract standpoint, but so far he’s thrown 118 innings of 4.38 FIP pitching. Currently, his FIP is the best it’s been since 2020, when he only threw 65 innings in a pandemic shortened season. His current HR/9 is lower than it’s ever been since since the 2019 season. Hope I didn’t jinx him!
I really hope they don't just roll with these starters. I agree the pollyanna-ish version (ie no injuries) is not a disaster. The median expectation for a healthy Gore, Irvin, Cavalli (for 20 starts and then probably Lara and/or Lord), Parker and Herz would probably be slightly above league average. But that rotation is weak among contenders and would be a liability should we make the playoffs. And that's assuming no injuries!
If we try and fail to sign Burnes (or Flaherty or maybe Fried if he can reestablish his health or maybe Bieber depending on his TJ recovery schedule etc), I'll accept the status quo rotation as a fallback over of signing a mid-rotation starter. But even in that case, I hope we're looking for an SP1 in the trade market and again in free agency after the season.
That said, I do agree with Harper, that the bat situation is more dire. If we fail to sign the stars we really want, we absolutely need to fill those spots with above average bats. The status quo is simply unacceptable. For example, our DH's have a 70 wRC+ for the year - and there is no internal help coming. Upside surprises from Abrams or Crews or Wood might paper over that in terms of getting us to 85 true talent wins, but in terms of being actually competitive against the other good teams, it's' just not OK to have gaping holes in the roster. We need real players. No more Gallos or Senzels. We should try for Soto, but if we can't get him, we need to sign someone like Joc Pederson. The rebuild is over.
@SMS: I agree that the rebuild should be over and absolutely share in that frustration. However, the rebuild will only end when we stop saying Abrams “could be a star” and Gore “has ace stuff” and just wait until Crews, Wood, and House are all up contributing… what? Jesse Winker numbers? Because my fear. is that all these guys are average.
"The Nats were no-hit yesterday completing the Padres sweep in the "never know what Nats team is going to show up" season.""
Indeed. I wonder how many teams have been no-hit, then come back the next day and score 10 runs (admittedly in 10 innings). Which team shows up at 7:15 tonight?
@OPBN - I agree with that to an extent, in that one clear way to define a rebuild is as a period of time where the balance of importance between potential future excellence and actual present excellence inverts from the normal orientation. When the rebuild is over, that needs to stop. Future potential will always be important, of course, but much much less so than it is during the rebuild.
But I also don't think the team needs to be world series favorites for the rebuild to be over. We just need to be contending for a playoff spot, expecting to play and then playing meaningful games the last couple weeks of the season, and even your relatively dour development projection (ie a team of cheap league average players) would be in WC contention if they sign two stars in free agency.
Here are the concrete signs I'm looking for over the next year:
1. Real FA signings: at least one 9 figure guarantee and at least 2 8 figure AAVs
2. Having a waived player picked up by another team
3. Having a preseason projection of around .500
4. Buying at the deadline, even if very modestly
5. Finishing the year over .500
Worth noting that he's done better recently. I still have sugar-plum visions that we could get rid of him in the next few days, for a mildly interesting A-ball player. A boy can dream.
Satisfied? The no-hitter was from a guy in peak form. Agree that the Nats 2024 are weak hitters, bit its not a complete crisis --- as a couple of 10 run games demonstrate. There is help coming.
The analysis of the problem is fine. But also, look what they're doing. Its not a 'contend year', its a 'see what ya got' year. Everybody gets an extended tryout and if you can't deliver, then you're not in the '25 plan.
Over the course of a "best last place team" year, Rizzo has previewed and tested a dozen potential members -- Yepez, Nunez, Lipscomb, Young, Irwin, Parker, Herz to name a few. They're transitioning to a new core of potentials, letting go of failed projects (Meneses), finally retiring a dead contract (Corbin). They're drafting, attracting and collecting new minor league pieces.
It sets them up to fill several key positions: #1-3 SP, 1B, DH. Three big figure deals could make 2025 much more fun.
Agree with SMS. Like he said.
They didn't quite let go of Meneses. I think he is more like a Travis Blankenhorn type: a sixth outfielder or a third first baseman/DH. Taxi squad. Depending on injuries and biorhythms, we might see him again.
Since Harper doesn't ordinarily post on Sunday, I wanted to jump in and ask opinions about the Winker for Tyler Stuart trade. On the one hand, a 17th ranked prospect who is age 24 doesn't seem like a great return for Winker. On the other hand, Stuart seems to have solid upside and fits the Rizzo taste for very tall pitchers. Reliever in college, being developed as a starter.
A commenter on the WP site reported this as the Fan Graphics rundown:
Stuart is a strike-throwing behemoth who has kept his walk rates down in the 2.5 per 9 IP range since entering pro ball. He’s now accumulated 14 efficient Double-A starts and is marching toward a post-2025 40-man add. Stuart’s stuff isn’t dominant and he probably needs to find a better changeup or split to avoid an eventual bulk relief role, but his durability and command give him a really high floor. He is mostly going to live in the low 90s with both a two- and four-seamer while commanding an average slider to his glove side. His ability to vary his fastball shape helps keep him off the barrel and is a big reason why he’s run groundball rates around 50%. He’s a low-variance sixth starter type.
Maybe it wasn't lopsided in our favor, but I think the trade is about fair. He's cheap and solid, but Winker is a rental DH and he's produced less than half as much WAR so far this season as Candy last year (who got us Herz and Made) or Bell the year before (the rumor was that Bell got us most of Susana).
I expected Winker to return one prospect around where Herz or Made were valued at this time last year, and Stuart seems to be in that ballpark, though probably on the low end of the range. I have Stuart slotting into our system in the mid 20s for now, but our system is also deeper than it was a year ago.
Also, both Made and Herz were immediately R5 eligible and Stuart isn't until after next season. We're looking at a soft roster crunch this winter, so that may be one of Rizzo's boundary conditions.
Curious what everyone’s take is on Erick Fedde turning his career around? Is this a fluke season or did something happen in Korea where he learned how to pitch? Wondering if this is a case of our failure in player development or CWS having some trick up their sleeves? Seeing guys like Giolito, Lopez, and now Fedde turning things around in Chicago is a head scratcher… what are we doing wrong?
And….I clearly jinxed Corbin with my last comment :)
Sorry about that, Patrick!
Could be wrong, but I remember Lopez being a well-regarded prospect rather than a reclamation project.
Giolito definitely needed a change of scenery, although he’s also seemed a bit up-and-down despite some solid years that I wish had happened here. FWIW though he’s pitching at or below Corbin’s level and sort of has been since 2023, despite only being 30, and hasn’t panned out to the degree he was supposed to.
Fedde I dunno. He seemed Detwiler-level while here, I could see how working on secondary pitches in a lower-pressure competition like the Korean league, then going into an org that might have a different approach to pitching tactics (whatever that may be) could help.
Still think the Nats got the better end of that Eaton trade though it was really a win-win for both sides.
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