James Wood is finally arriving in a Nats uniform. The wait has not been long but it has been much anticipated. Unlike when the Nats traded Trea and Max - when the Nats traded Soto they were giving up a super young player, still possibly getting better, with two plus years of control left. The return needed to be team rebuilding good. CJ Abrams (hot again) and Mackenzie Gore (rough outing last time) both seem to be All-Star caliber players with the ability to be true superstars. The issue with them is that the clock had already started ticking on them when they were traded. Gore will start costing a lot next year, Abrams in 2026 and talk of if their future is in DC will start over the same sooner than you think time frame. Younger and with Nats full control Robert Hassell and Jarlin Susana have both seen potential careers stymied by various injuries. That leaves James Wood as the true team carrier. The guy who will be here through the decade whose stardom or non-stardom could determine the decisions of the franchise moving forward.
Trading him was a gamble for the Padres. He was a Top 100 prospect who was crushing the ball in A ball at 19. Granted High A and AA are both big transitions but he had everything you would want in a player. As long as his strikeouts didn't get out of hand he should be at least a solid major leaguer. 2023 was a mixed bag on that he easily progressed past High A but in AA the strikeout totals did get to him going over 33%. That does give one pause as it can't get too much higher and allow you to remain a viable hitter. And it would almost certainly get higher in the majors so an immediate call-up to start 2024 seemed very unlikely despite a super hot finish to his season.
Indeed he didn't start with the major league team but he did start in major league camp and played most of Spring Training with the big league club. He crushed the ball getting everyone excited and making everyone forget the cardinal rule that Spring Training stats are meaningless. Well, not everyone. The Nats did send him back down to make him prove it in AAA. He quickly did. He looked on course for a major league debut but a mild injury put him on the bench for three weeks. Picking up right where he left off Wood crushed AAA pitching as he did all year. Most importantly his strike outs were way down. With no possible indication Wood wasn't ready for the majors he got the call.
At the plate there is a minor concern - if you want him to hit his ceiling which is "Aaron Judge but debuting at 22 not 25" - that his effort to cut down strikeouts has taken some of his power. That's probably true but something I'd expect to come back as he adjusts to the majors. The power talent didn't go anywhere. He can still hit the ball extremely hard. It just may take a couple of years to adjust to the pitching here and figure out how to balance making contact and hitting for power.
He's said to be a fast runner and a great fielder, capable of playing CF but destined for a corner OF spot. In part that's because his size suggests growing and slowing into that spot, but really because Dylan Crews, another Nats OF prospect could take that spot. Or Jacob Young, who currently occupies CF is a top of the game fielder.
Really the concern for Wood would be injury. He's such a big player (6'7") that you put more stress on the body playing this game everyday. The only caveat on Judge's fine career is the fact he's heading for only his 4th full season in 8 years. Is Wood destined for the same sort of injury-riddled career? Being younger helps but the key is more avoiding those leg injuries that simply can't be worked around.*
What can the Nats expect from Wood this year? Who knows. Guys like Jackson Holliday show moving up to the majors is not simply a step-up. I've said this before but the majors aren't just AAAA, they are a superleague where everyone better than AAA is forced to play together. These are everyone from guys at AAA that are just needed to fill spots to guys that would be in a theoretical AAAAA league if that existed. With all that talent here you'll be facing a bunch of guys a couple steps better than you've seen. It's hard to exactly pin down what will happen.
Regardless of whether he is immediately great, or needs to be sent down for more seasoning, this is a big deal. This is the next chapter for the Nats. It starts here. From here you will see more kids. From here you will discuss the re-signing of the next set of young players the Nats are relying on - Garcia, Abrams, Gore. From here we'll find out if and how competitive the Nats will be for the second half of this decade. Let's go!
*that's mostly why Judge has lasted. A bit of knee strain in the minors but the rest of his injuries are a mix mostly oblique, broken hand, a busted toe but from running into the wall, a calf, but no bad knees or bad feet flashing red light warning signs.
10 comments:
Harper, agree with your upside but always a chance of a downside analysis of Wood.
On the other hand, I think you are too dismissive of what Abrams and Gore represent to the Nats. Control, not arbitration driven salaries, is the issue. If I interpret your numbers correctly, Gore's three arbitration years takes us through 2027; and Abrams through 2028. Granted Wood would be through 2030 (?), but that's still a minimum of 3.5 year years for these three to be under team control together.
Also, I think there are reasons to be more hopeful about Hassell and Susana. They are young and injuries are not a bar to success.
Exciting times... finally. It's cool that Wood, Abrams and Gore will all be on the field tonight
Obviously would have rather won, but 1-4 with a walk (and probably a second hit once that error gets corrected) isn't bad. I liked his approach at the plate, and that home to first time was wild. New fastest guy on the team. Didn't really get to see much of his defense, other than the mediocre throw to 3rd, but no reason yet to think he won't be plus in LF long term.
Also, @Harper, that catch by Young to end the game Saturday did end up showing as a starred catch and adding like .2 or .3 OAA to his total. So your point about the overlapping ranges is correct and will show up in the data. You'd need to line up the balls-in-play for Young against Thomas to see how big of an effect swapping in a plus defended like Crews would have.
I can't figure out how to make Savant do that but just looking through some of the clips, I think it's likely to be closer to a 10% discount than a 40% one. So probably not enough to bump Young as long as he can keep hitting to a 85 wRC+ or better.
@Harper — is Irvin legit? What’s his ceiling, do you think? Also, looking through your crystal ball, if you could have one of Irvin, Gore, Parker, Herz or Cavalli, who would you choose?
@Donald I know you asked Harper, but I would say Gore. Has the pedigree and looks like he has the nastiest stuff. (Though I’m happy with the other guys too)
Gore. He has great stuff -- he just has to harness it. I'd put Irvin second.
Kind of amazing that the Nats "discovered" 3 potential Tanner Roarks (or maybe even better than Tanner) in Irvin, Parker and Herz -- none of which were on our radar. Time will tell, but Herz may be better suited to being a closer.
My take is that it's pretty clearly Gore > Irvin > Parker, both in median expectation and in upside, and that the only reason it looks close is that the median projection for Irvin is a half step back from here and the median projection for Gore is a half step forward. Right now, Gore and Irvin are providing pretty similar value but even with the two extra years of control, I don't think any trading partner would value Irvin more than Gore.
Herz doesn't really fit in cleanly though, because he's still very much a work in progress. He has way more bust risk at this point than even Parker, but I think he has legit ace upside if he can take a couple of more steps forward. Of course, most pitchers in that situation don't take those steps and it's at least as likely that his shaky control gets out of hand again, but if you said "One of these pitches won the 2027 Cy Young." Herz would be my second guess. But if I had to rank them on expected WAR over the next three seasons, I'd put him last (and after Cavalli too).
I don’t necessarily expect Herz’s magic to continue, but stranger things have happened, and because of that I don’t totally get the urge to move him to the bullpen when he’s posting Strasburgian, ridiculous K to BB ratios in starts. Use the rest of the season to see how he handles continuing to start. If he keeps doing this he’s much more valuable than a closer.
Agree about Herz. His FIP is 4.00 and his xERA and xFIP are lower than 4. He needs more time as a starter to demonstrate who he is and what he can do.
Note that Parker’s FIP (albeit with over twice the innings) is like 3.92
Is Harper alive?!
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