Well a Wild Card was always a bit of a stretch. Especially when near .500 management was giving out all the "don't be mad when we trade guys" signals.
Ok 2025. Wood is here. Who's next up?
Dylan Crews - Promoted to AAA after handling AA. He wasn't forcing the issue as much as it was clear he could handle AA. He was consistently a good bat over almost any stretch you looked at. AAA has looked about the same - maybe a touch worse in all aspects which wouldn't be surprising this early. Not necessarily slated to make it up this year based on this. Will have to see.
Brady House - Recently promoted to AAA because... well because I think they want all these guys to come up at the same time or as close as possible. House wasn't doing much in AA and infact it seemed like the league had figured him out to an extent. He could surprise but if AAA follows AA like it did for Crews House is even less likely to need to see the majors this year.
Cade Cavalli - setback after setback. thrown two games since coming back from his big injury and both of those starts were followed by extended time off. I don't see why you'd press this, but if he is healthy sure you'll see him. He's been up before.
Cole Henry - if you have news on him let me know. Hasn't been seen since a decent rehab start a few days before June ended. I'm guessing that's a no for 2024 in the majors.
Yohandy Morales - slow start in AA and injury. Hasn't played since May. No.
Daylen Lile - earned a promotion to AA where he is doing ok, lots of concact but really struggling to generate any power.
Robert Hassell - hasn't played since mid-June and was having the same power issues as last year before that
Andry Lara - up and down in AA but mostly up and probably the best healthy arm they have right now. The problem is he's young enough he hasn't built up the innings. He's about 3 starts from matching his career highs. I can't see him called up to throw an extra 30+. I wouldn't want that.
This isn't what I expected. Who could we see :
Darren Baker - He puts the ball in play and is fast so can have a decent average. Maybe. I'd feel better if he already wasn't 25.
Orlando Ribalta - Ok not much of a "prospect" but a live arm reliever. Nats at the major league level seem adept at getting control out of these guys and if he gets it he could be really good. Although yes 26.
Zach Brzykcy - On 40 man so that's a big help. Looked real good in Wilmington but hasn't pitched in over a week. But if he's ok I'd assume you'll see him.
Marquis Grissom - in AA now but fits the exact build of the Nats pitching staff. Control, no homers, gets the job done. Would expect a stop in AAA but then the majors this year
What this says is
1) Expect the relievers to get traded because if the Nats have anyone worth seeing in the majors it's other relief arms. Might as well get them some practice now.
2) Really watch Crews, House, and the rest of the high minors guys. They need to do better over the next 6 weeks to make a call-up really make sense, although they could get it just for the experience.
3) in general the "next wave" that will help carry the team to a WC challenge in 2025 isn't forming. That's some injury, some performance, some timing. Right now it's Wood and then... we'll see. Lots of time left in the year though. Some strong finishes would turn this narrative around.
14 comments:
One thing about Crews' and House's AA performance to keep in mind is that Harrisburg is an extreme pitcher's park, so crummy AA numbers might translate just fine to AAA.
I expect both to be up in 2025 at the latest. I expect both to be at least competent major leaguers. I just think we were hoping for "start of 2025 as good major leaguers" and that's not in the cards TODAY.
Really I think this hammers home the general point I think we all agree on. This isn't going to be a home grown only turn around. There needs to be some money spent. It was a bone of contention for some (like me!) this off-season. It'll be a HUGE thing this next off-season.
I feel like there was pretty solid consensus that it was disappointing that the Nats didn’t add at least one piece this offseason. Hopefully we see some spending starting this offseason, especially as the Stras situation is at least clear now and Corbin’s contract will be coming off the books.
I probably shouldn’t be disappointed (but I am) about Crews. Skenes and to a lesser degree Langford looks so good, it’s frustrating to think that the Nats appear to have only picked up a (hopefully) above average outfielder from their #2 pick.
Is anyone else worried about McKenzie Gore? He has ace-level stuff, but he's been inconsistent, and pretty awful lately. Could it be fatigue? Possibly exacerbated by pitching on really hot days? Or can we just attribute it to small sample size?
Maybe you can't have it both ways: frustrated that they didn't invest this past winter AND realistic about the uneven process of developing and evaluating young players. What would your FA wish list have been on 1/1/24? How is it different on 6/30/24? Even now, do you feel certain you can forecast the wish list for 12/31/24? The list of high-priority needs is changing and in a number of cases, in unexpected ways.
Since January, we have the emergence of Young, Garcia the keeper, Irvin as a #3, Parker, Mitchell, and Herz as potential future starters, CJ the star, and initial confirmation of Wood's worthiness. Hopefully, by season's end we will have a better sense of Green, Crews, Yepez, Lipscomb, and some developing starting pitchers. More important than has been acknowledged, we also need an assessment of the possibility of a few home-grown relievers. If we do have an excess of above average and star outfielders, do we try to convert one (a la Harper and I suspect eventually Soto) to first base or do we spend big on an existing one?
All questions will not have been answered by October, but I feel confident that money will be much better spent this coming Winter than if we had taken some shorts in the dark last winter.
@Harper -
I don't think it changes any of your qualitative conclusions, but House's season at AA was better than it looks at first glance. Stepwise improvements in K%, BB% and ISO. He's just getting murdered by BABIP luck.
Also, while I can't be certain around his erratic rehabbing schedule, I think they finally moved Henry to the pen after his last injury, which would shift him to the bullpen mix part of the discussion.
And one thing to keep in mind is that Morales, Lile and Grissom aren't R5 until after next year. Given that I expect there to be a soft 40-man crunch after this season, I think those guys would really have to force it to be called up before the IL opens next season.
@SG -
That's a perfectly fair point, and my only quibble is that some needs are almost universal. Every team always needs an ace. And, for bats, aside from plus up-the-middle defenders, positional redundancy isn't that big a deaL. You can always find somewhere to play the guy with a 130 wRC+.
That said, the only player on my wishlist last year was Yamamoto, and I'm not sure it would have been even possible to have gotten him away from LA. All in all, I'm very glad we didn't give Snell or Montgomery the deal they were looking for.
A thing to remember about the promotion of House is that the team may be looking at more detailed stats than the B-R or FG show on their pages when they are making decisions about when a player is ready to move up. I can't find a good source for the raw data, but I remember reading earlier this year that House's exit velocity (90% EV of 107, max 113) in 2023 was elite. His AA performance was held back by a relatively low BABIP (.273). He's off to a good start in AAA (.833 OPS, 111 wRC+) but that's the flip side of BABIP (his current BABIP in AAA is .500!).
And as for acquisitions, as SMS indirectly points out, it's easy to say "they should sign someone" but is much harder to sign actually sign the right player in a specific market. Hence the traditional fan pivot from "SIGN SOMEONE" to, after the team signs someone, to "NOT THAT GUY!" Going into last year's market I had no illusions that the Nat were going to sign Yamamoto. My wish list was Imanaga and Montgomery. Which would in hindsight have produced one hit, one miss in 2024 and going forward into the Nats' potential "window" both pitchers already being in their early 30's.
Gore’s FIP is a full run lower than his ERA. His LOB% seems low, and his BABIP is over 50 points higher than last year. It’s possible he has regressed, but I think he’s due for better performance
Wow. What a game today. So fun to watch. One game, but really loving the fight building in this team.
Thoughts on the Hunter Harvey trade?
I like the HH trade. Sad to see him go, but glad Rizzo was able to get a decent return. I think I would have been okay with either Wallace or the pick respectively, but both? Now we get three picks thru the first 44. More depth on the farm is fine by me.
Well done, Mike.
A challenge for Harper the Downer….can you write an entire column with the title “Well done, Mike.”
Great terms for Harvey. I think it puts a floor under any deal involving Finnigan. The Nats could emerge from this trade deadline with one of baseball's deeper farm systems.
Any thoughts on today's draft?
The Nats drafted a player that they are listing as a third baseman in the first round, though he’s also played shortstop. They seem to be stock piling third basemen, since that’s who they got for Harvey, too. Seems a bit of an odd pick since Rizzo tends to prefer pitchers and that’s a position of need anyway. Maybe some team is really keen on House or Morales and Rizzo is preparing for a trade? Or maybe he was just the best player available at that point?
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