The short take on Gore's 2024 is that he got better but didn't become the ace the Nats hoped for. But probably most importantly he was healthy the whole year completing over 30 starts, something not given based on Gore's injury history. If this is all he is - a solid dependable #3 type - then that is enough, though the potential remains for more.
The big difference between this year and last was a return to a more balanced repertoire. Gore kind of gave up on his change last year focusing more on his swing and miss pitches and control of those. The result was an increase in strikeouts and a decrease in walks, as hoped but also an increase in home runs. Guys could guess what he'd throw. They didn't guess right often and his stuff was still good - his hard hit % stayed about the same- but when they were right they punished him. This year he incorporated more changeups and the results were notable. A big drop in hard hit%, a big drop in homers, a big drop in barrels. Opponents were more off balance. Yes adding back in a pitch they didn't swing and miss much at meant they put the ball in play more and that means more hits but he was able to maintain his control. The control of power with roughly the same K and BB rate meant a better pitcher.
Where can Gore improve to take the next step? It's making a jump forward in control. Although he managed to improve his control last year, it was only from "this cannot continue" to "one of the wildest starters in the game". Maintaining that for this year was important, while adding back in his change, but if he's going to be a top of the rotation type he's going to have to cut it way down, by like half a walk a game or more. And it's a balancing act. If having more control means giving up more homers there a point where it won't be worth it.
I'm not exactly sure he can make this step. While the HR bump in 2023 was an aberration, he'd pretty much always kept the ball in the park, the walk issue has dogged him for a while. Simply having strong stuff kept it down in the very low minors. Guys would chase more. But that isn't the case now. Without a sense that the control can come I don't know if it's something we should expect.
On the positive side though he really should be getting slightly better results this year and his ERA should be just on the other side of 4.00 as opposed to the higher end.
As Gore is hitting 26 there's limited time for real improvement. One of the least talked about truths in sport is you generally show what you are very quickly. Gore's improvement shows importantly that he's able to put together the best version of what he is, but 2024 might be it.
I'd say personally I'm satisfied with Gore. There is a LOT of value in a good healthy #3 type. Sure, I want him to be an ace, but that's probably not going to happen. I'd bet against it. What I'd now hope for is for him to continue to improve. Moving from a 4.00 ERA type to a 3.50+ ERA type that he should be able to do with some minor changes and better luck. That's more of a solid if not exciting #2 and the type that can give the rotation stability.
Gore won't be a kid after this year but how did the kid do? Pretty good.
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I think this take is fair and I largely agree -- Gore is already a solid 3 and should be expected to improve slightly but not to become an ace.
But I'm not sure I agree that players show who they are immediately. Especially pitchers. I haven't looked into it with much rigor, but my anecdotal sense is that ace pitchers quite often make that final leap relatively late in their arcs. So I'd say Gore shouldn't be expected to become an ace simply because almost no one should be, and not because his development path so far makes that improvement specifically unlikely.
Nats' pitchers are backed up by Jacob Young & the Strangegloves. Gore might already be pretty close to a #2 if the Nats can fix their defense.
EXTREME DATA-BASED TAKE: Gore reminds me of early Strasburg in that he would get visibly rattled and irate when things went against him (error, flare RBI single, etc). I imagine once he hits about 29 he'll listen to his inner Obi-Wan and learn to let go of his hate and take the next step, assuming his physical stuff doesn't diminish equal-fold.
Yeah, baseball generally, really, but pitchers can really go up and down. Guys peak so much later than in other sports because it's anaerobic and so hand-eye driven.
#3 sounds right for now, But Gore's main stats (IP, ERA, K/BB, WHIP..) arent that different from Scherzer's in his second year, 2009. It took Max a while to become the ace. MacKenzie did show flashes of brilliance.
I'd say Stras showed he could be an ace immediately. It was more about results lining up wiht how he was pitching and a mild walk in the woods
Max did blossom late but was also a minor league beast with only wildness. You might say Gore was the same... before his injury. If you think he can get back to that - pre injury then there's ace hope. But also Max was always a healthy arm and Gore isn't. THere's just a lot more on his side
Gore still has time to improve. Many pitchers don't hit their peak until past age 26. QUESTION: Who will be the opening day pitcher next year? Gore or Irvin. I think it will be Gore, but I think Irvin deserves it. Of course, there are still 161 games after opening day, so it really doesn't make any difference. But it's fun to debate it.
Stras, Coles and Skenes are the only guys I can recall who, right from the jump, projected as an ace. I think that's the exception and not the rule.
Looking at the top of the fWAR leaderboard for 2021-2024: Wheeler, Burnes, Gausman, Valdez -- that's the kind of arc that we're hoping on for Gore.
Hoping it’s Blake Snell. Or maybe Trevor Williams comes back. Between Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz and maybe Cavalli, I’d guess they go with Gore, too.
He left us with a nice final start to go into the offseason. A no-decision but 6 IP with 9 Ks, no runs, and <1 WHIP versus a good lineup, leaving his season ERA under 4. I doubt he'll ever get top 10 CYA votes (I hope I'm wrong), but he should be a solid part of the rotation for a while.
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