We took at look at James and CJ but there are seven other guys who make up the line-up. While stars can do a lot, they can't carry a dead two innings at the plate. So the question is can these guys keep doing what they are doing?
We'll start with two easy ones - Can Luis Garcia hit about average? Sure! Since 2022 that's what he's done so no reason to think the 26 year old is going to be any different now. Can Nasim Nunez still stink? Sure! There's a reason the slick-fielding SS was available in the Rule V draft. They never thought he could hit at the major league level. And he's proving them right. I suppose he could be worse, but for now we'll leave it as a yes - he can maintain a .200 BA with some walks and zero power.
Ok what about the other 5+? We'll start with the three regulars from the start of the year. Lile, Young and Ruiz.
Daylen Lile - the kid has taken a step back from last year when he played well enough to send Crews back to the minors and have Nats fans thinking maybe they found a star. Fans keep doing that. Lile is hitting across the board worse and well we don't know what's coming next. It could be adjustments from him or it could be further adjustments from the other teams to really put him down. Your first time up is a lot of "can you handle major league stuff". The answer from Lile was yes. The next step is "can you handle major league PITCHING". The difference is instead of "Here's my fastball.Try to hit it" is the other team now tries to pitch to certain spots or in certain order. They know they can't get by with no effort. Lile is sort of holding his own but also had a worse May than April so I'm not sure. I think he won't ever be a Nunez (who can't handle major league stuff) but could he slip under average? Possible. Jury is still out on a kidwith 100 major league games under his belt
Jacob Young - he's a glove first guy and whatever the Nats get from him at the plate is a bonus... assuming he's not terrible. Last year he was pretty close to that. He does not hit the ball very hard so before this year his game was hit it on the ground and leg it out. That works until it doesn't and "it doesn't" seemed to be 2025. In 2026 he's lifting the ball more and hitting it a touch harder and the combination is getting him more non-legged out hits. As this is not based on anything crazy, I think he can keep this up. He's a slightly below average hitter and I think that holds.
Keibert Ruiz - I'd love to say yes, but the numbers don't back that up. He IS hitting better. Ruiz was always a guy that could hit the ball - he doesn't walk, he doesn't K, he hits the ball square. But he's also a slow catcher so if he doesn't generate power all this means is a lot of ground outs. This year he's getting the ball up and hitting it harder. More hits, more XBH, fewer ground ball outs. But the numbers aren't too far different from 2022/2023. The differences really are - nothing soft and massive amounts of pull. I just don't see Keibert Ruiz .280+ 20 HR hitter here. I do think though he can land at an averageish level. Which would be good, but would also slow the offense down.
And the others? Mead, Tena, Vivas, Crews, House?
Crews still looks bad so sure he can do that. I'd honestly expect him to do better eventually but these numbers suggest more time in AAA rather than helping out the Nationals.
House was approaching average and I would have said yes, but the team seems to think no bc they sent him back down so what do I know. I'm not going against them
Vivas, like these two and Lile, just don't have a lot of major league at bats to feel sure about anything. He stunk in his first year up in 2024 but that seems like a fair amount of bad luck. I don't think he's this decent, but he's probably closer to this than that. Maybe a half step worse? Stats really don't like him so I'll guess I'll settle there.
Tena is someone that has done what none of these other guys have. He's really swinging the bat faster. But he's trading a bit more power for more Ks and fewer walks. He's been about this "playable below average" for a while now. No reason to say he can't keep it up. The real question for DH is when do we see some of the kids who look like they can actually hit.
Mead is probably then what things hinge on going forward. It sounds weird to say that but what do we have so far? Garcia, Lile, Young, Ruiz, Tena sitting around average, if you made me guess I'd go below rather than above. Nunez stinking. That's could work ok in a lineup with a couple of stars but you really do need one more bat here to be good. Wiemer was that bat to start but that was always just a lucky break from a journeyman. Mead... Mead was a legit prospect who was always expected to hit. He just didn't. He swung the bat hard but couldn't connect in the right way and that made him press a little taking away from what was in the minors a keen eye with good contact. But it seems to all be coming together now. I'm not going to say he can keep it up but also I'm not going to say he can't keep up something close. The numbers are that good.
The end result of a look at the other guys is probably a full step back. As might be expected with the team unexpectedly doing so well, you have guys outperforming where they should be. The good news is though there's a lot of ok talent here - enough to fill in the gaps - and with the possible return of "average Ruiz" you really are just looking for a couple big bats. Yes that could be expensive and all but you do have them here in Abrams and Mead... maybe.
I think where we come down is - Wood will keep rocking (probably unless he gets tired), the bulk of the lineup will do slightly worse but not enough to keep the line-up from being above average. How much above average lands with CJ and Mead. If these guys can hit like stars for the season, you have your Top 3 lineup carrying the below average staff. If they can't it's more around average. My take from the numbers says they can't BUT also not like in a "going to collapse" way. More like dropping down to slightly above average. Good enough to be fun. Probably not good enough to keep the team over .500. For that they'll need some pitching help.
7 comments:
Team ERA has dropped more than a run per game since April 25th. In March/April they were awful and have since then moved more towards being respectable. They can win if the staff continues to perform like they have for the past five weeks. If they can continue with this pace of being fair/middle of the road then this team can win games. I do think they need to figure out what to do with players like Nunez and Vivas. I think I would rather have Morales, House, and King; but that is a fans perspective.
The Athletic and others report on the coaching staff’s focused work with each player. I believe that’s part of the story. You intimate that you don’t buy it. Don’t you think the new regime is putting these guys through sabermetrically fortified sessions? And doesn’t the fact that they bat in better situations help? I love the new setup and drink the kool aid.
Before the season started, the hope was that Griffin, Mikolas and Littell would be respectable enough to get flipped for more prospects. As things now stand, the Nats are probably a .500 team. Do you stick with the plan and sell high on those guys, and maybe Mead too? If they assume 2027 will be a lockout, maybe they keep building toward 2028? Or do you sell some prospects like Ortiz and Morales for more pitching? Maybe a couple of additions is all it would take to eke into the playoffs? My guess is that they mostly split the difference. Sell Littell and a prospect or two for more prospects. The fans are starting to come back, so I’m not sure they want to dump too much and crush the positive vibes. But the focus is still mostly in 2028.
Two points. (1) What do we think about Mead being able to play 2B defense on a consistent basis? If Mead is found gold and can play 2B, that ought to inform what the club does with Abrams at the deadline (I would prefer to extend Abrams and move him to 2B, but if we think Mead can play 2B and Seaver King can play SS, then perhaps the dollars that would be spent on Abrams could be deployed more usefully elsewhere (I would prefer the Lerners spend all the dollars and not force this kind of allocative-type thinking, but we must exist in the real world); (2) On May 6, Harper writes this post about the Nats' black hole at catcher (https://natsbaseball.blogspot.com/2026/05/honestly-what-to-do-about-catcher.html) and supposedly that same day the Nats had a full-org meeting with Keibert who instantly started hitting. Harper, it's time for you to write a post about why Dylan Crews sucks and will never be good. Do it for us, your faithful readers!
I read that piece just before reading Harper's take, and I agree, it confused me a bit...as they mention Jacob Young specifically being coached into increasing bat speed with better results (better than "utter liability" at the plate). From a fan view, I have to tip my hat to the coaching I think is going on and helping...
I'm going to say what I thought, but didn't say about the catchers. Nasim is a bad hitter, but he probably isn't this bad. It is likely that he will start to hit better if he continues to get chances. I would guess he's a 80 wRC+ hitter, instead of the 49 wRC+ he has done so far. That's still really bad!
Harper's take is fine. However, it says that everyone can either keep it up (begrudgingly) or they will get worse. There are people that we can expect to get better. As I said above, I think Nasim is one of those. I think Crews is one of those. I also think Young is one of those. He may not be hitting the ball harder, but he is hitting at better angles which is an improvement. Despite hitting the ball better, his BAPIP is down 35 points to .248. I think that will go up
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