The Nats are where they have been now for a while which is fun and good because where they are is "about .500 and in the playoff discussion".
About a month ago we talked about the playoffs and while we'll go over that deeper in a week during the ASB I want to look at my assumptions about the other teams to see how they held up. If so, it's likely worth checking them out again the same way at that time.
Gap would grow between the Nats and Braves/Dodgers/Brewers
Was 11.5 behind ATL, 8.5 behind MIL, 8.5 behind LAD
Now 7.5 behind ATL, 10.5 behind MIL, 13 behind LAD
Well the one that matters I was wrong. Basically the rest of June was a horror show for the Braves going 4-13 to end the month. They've picked it back up recently and I still think I'm basically right in my call here that these are just better teams.
Cardinals and Phillies are likely no worse than Nats, catchable but likely to hold lead
Was 3 behind STL, 2.5 behind PHI
Now 3 behind STL, 4.5 behind PHI
PHI has shown that the horrible start was just that and they are a perfectly decent team. That plus the general advantages should keep them ahead of the Nats depending on trade deadline machinations, injuries, and general luck
Arizona and San Diego are worse than Nats and definitely catchable
Was 1 game behind ARI, 1 game behind SDP
Now 1 game ahead of ARI, 1 game ahead of SDP
Yep, these guys aren't as good.
Cubs and the Pirates are better than the Nats and might widen tiny gap
Was 0.5 games behind PIT, 0.5 games behind CHC
Now tied with PIT, 4.5 games behind CHC.
One team proved me right with the Cubs big push in June ending the month 14-4. The Pirates seemed more on par with the Nats when they faced.
Cincy is a mirage, but maybe the Marlins are real?
Was 2 games ahead of CIN, 2.5 games ahead of the Marlins
Now 4 games ahead of CIN, 3 games BEHIND the Marlins
Well look at that. Marlins are on a 23-8 run currently while whatever luck Cincy had has petered out.
The short of it - yeah those assumptions mostly held up. Really only one team surprised from what I was thinking and that was the Braves. Most did exactly what the numbers said they would and the others didn't stray that far. So yeah worth while to look again, see what has changed and where the Nats fit. But that's for a couple weeks.
The Nats have a good run into and out of the ASB. Into it's the middling Astros, the Yankees who can't hit without Judge and he isn't expected back before the ASG, and the bad A's. Out of it it's the bad Rockies and the middling Dbacks and Blue Jays. If they really are contenders for a playoff spot they'll take these 18 games and go like 11-7, 12-6. Tread water and trades of good players and a crash out to end 2026 seems more likely
3 comments:
Just being in the conversation is such a welcome change. I really wish Toboni had known that the hitting would improve so much and the pitching wouldn't -- just hanging on to 2 more pitchers (Bennett and Ferrer) would have made a dramatic difference in the team's record.
It's a shame but I can't blame him. What happens in the next 30 days is going to be pretty big. I assume Toboni has a plan that he is going to stick to unless the Nats do something silly like go 15-3 in the games I talked about. Question is how much is that going to hurt? If the Nats hold their ground go 10-8 and are 56-53 and 2 games out of the WC and they trade CJ? or Garcia?
I’m just an anonymous commenter, but from my vantage point trading CJ would be a bad idea. Obviously he’s a good hitter and he’s pretty young. He’s fun to watch, seems to have a lot of personality (in a good way), and the young fans I know as a father of a big baseball fan just love CJ. I think trading him away loses more than just his baseball skills. I know baseball is a hard numbers game and that at the end of the day money talks, but more than a few fans would be very sad to see him go.
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